RSS

The Truth About the 2008 Election

09 Oct

Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9.5 Million Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 9, 2007

Update Note: In 2011, state and national unadjusted exit polls available on the Roper UConn web site showed that Obama won the weighted aggregate of the state exit polls (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%% – exactly matching (and confirming) the True Vote Model. Obama won the National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.

Link to the analysis:
http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm

It is standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force the unadjusted exit polls to match the recorded vote.

In 2000, Gore won the official recorded vote by 51.0-50.46 million (48.4-47.9%) But the unadjusted state exit polls show that he won by 50.8-44.4%. According to the Census, 110.8 million votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4 million were recorded. It is estimated that 4 of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Gore. Did you ever hear about this anomaly in the mainstream media?
No.

Bush had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 46 million returning Bush 2000 voters in 2004.
Do you agree?
Yes.

But the Final 2004 National Exit Poll indicates that 52.6 million Bush voters returned in 2004. That is an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters. That means there had to be 6.6 million returning phantom Bush voters.
Do you agree?
Yes.

Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media?
No.

Do you agree that the Final 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote?
Yes.

Are you aware that the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) shows that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%?
No.

Table 1
Final 2004 National Exit Poll
Returning 2000 voters and 2004 vote shares were adjusted to match the 2004 recorded vote. Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59 million (50.7-48.3%),
Implicit Assumptions:
93% turnout of living Gore 2000 voters
110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters
98% turnout of living Nader and other third-party 2000 voters

Table 2
2004 True Vote Model
Kerry wins by 10.5 million (53.5-45.2%)
Assumptions:
98% returning voter turnout based on 2000 total votes cast
Preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares (13,047 respondents)

OK, now let’s move on to 2008.

Are you aware that Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%?
No.
Did you ever hear this in the corporate media?
No.

Do you agree that the Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama won by 52.9-45.6%)?
Yes.

Table 3
Final 2008 National Exit Poll
Obama wins the recorded vote by 9.5 million (52.9-45.6%)
Assumptions:
87% turnout of living Kerry 2004 voters
103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters
452% turnout of living third party 2004 voters

The Final 2008 NEP indicates that 46% of 2008 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% returning Kerry voters. Therefore, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But that is not plausible (Bush had 22% approval on Election Day 2008).
Do you agree?
Yes, 12 million more Bush voters is not plausible – but it’s still possible.

The Final 2008 NEP indicates 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters.
That is impossible, right?
Yes.

Therefore the 46% returning Bush 2004 voter share of the 2008 electorate must be incorrect, right?
Yes.

The Final 2008 NEP also indicates there were 5.25 million returning third-party voters (4% of the electorate). But there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004. Therefore the Final 2008 NEP returning third-party vote and/or the recorded 2004 third-party vote must be incorrect, right?
Yes.

Since the 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush and third-party voters, Obama must have won by more than 9.5 million votes, right?
Yes.

Assume a) a feasible 97% turnout of living Bush, Kerry and third-party voters in 2008 and b) Zero fraud in 2004 (the recorded vote was equal to the True Vote).
Then we have:
Table 4
Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (feasible returning voter mix)
Obama wins by 14.7 million (55.0-43.8%)
Assumptions:
97% returning voter turnout; 5% voter mortality
2004 recorded vote (Bush by 50.7-48.3%)

But virtually all election analysts have concluded that the 2004 election was stolen. If Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate by 52-47% and 2004 voters returned proportionately in 2008, then Obama won by 22 million votes – even assuming the Final 2008 NEP vote shares used to match the recorded vote.

Table 5
2008 True Vote Model I (based on 2004 total votes cast)
Obama wins the True Vote by 22.0 million (57.0-41.8%)
Assumptions:
Kerry won by 52-47%
97% returning 2004 voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

But Table 2 shows that Kerry won the True Vote with a 53.5% vote share. Let’s calculate the 2008 True Vote assuming that 2004 returning voters are proportional to the 2004 True Vote.

Table 6
2008 True Vote Model II
Obama wins the True Vote by 22.9 million (58.0-40.7%).
Assumptions:
Kerry won the True Vote by 53.5-45.1% (Table 2)
97% returning 2004 voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

Summary Arguments

The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote. The 2008 True Vote Model used the same vote shares as the 2008 Final.
So there can be no argument there.

The 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters as indicated in the Final 2004 NEP was impossible. The impossible turnout was adjusted to a feasible 98%.
So there can be no argument there.

The 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. The impossible turnout was adjusted to 97%.
So there can be no argument there.

The 5.25 million returning third-party voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. The impossible 452% turnout was adjusted to 97%.
So there can be no argument there.

Q. E. D.

About these ads
 
3 Comments

Posted by on October 9, 2010 in 2008 Election

 

3 responses to “The Truth About the 2008 Election

  1. Doug Schooler

    October 9, 2010 at 9:55 pm

    This is the blog we’ve been waiting for, the place to get the truth about the 2010 election. I’m subscribed.

     
    • richardcharnin

      October 11, 2010 at 1:18 pm

      Thanks Doug.
      Check out my latest True Vote Model post.

       
  2. Jeannie Dean

    August 7, 2011 at 6:45 am

    Richard Charnin – you are my tireless hero! Thank you for everything you do; you have been my true north on election statistical analysis for YEARS now *since 2006 when MY vote was stolen in the FL CD-13 election) and I found you as TRUTH IS ALL at The Brad Blog. You are a wonder.

     

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 772 other followers

%d bloggers like this: