Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Richard Charnin

Updated: Jan. 27, 2012

First there was the 2000 Judicial Coup and then the long-running media con that Bush really did win. Let’s take another look.

Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 MILLION VOTE MARGIN compared to the 540,000 recorded. There were nearly 6 MILLION UNCOUNTED votes – the great majority were Gore votes.

The data source is the Roper site:
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP

1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

Gore won the unadjusted exit poll in the following 11 states which all flipped to Bush:
AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA
Gore would have won the election if he won just ONE of the above.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=4

The True Vote Model, based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast, was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. He had a 50.0% True share assuming he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

Bush won Florida by 537 votes. The recount was aborted in a 5-4 Supreme Court decision. But it was not even close. Gore won by at least 100,000 votes. There were 185,000 uncounted ballots: 110,000 were over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. And thousands of butterfly ballots were mistakenly marked for Buchanan in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County.

According to investigative reporter Greg Palast:
http://www.gregpalast.com/florida-by-the-numbersal-gore-won-florida-in-2000-by-77000-votes/
Here’s how to estimate the effect of spoilage on the election outcome. For fun, let’s take Florida 2000. We know from comparison of census tracts to precincts that 54% of the 179,855 ballots spoiled were cast by African-American voters, that is, 97,000 of the total.

Every poll put the Black vote in Florida for Al Gore at over 90%. Reasonably assuming “spoiled” ballots matched the typical racial preferences, Gore lost more than 87,000 votes in the spoilage pile. Less than 10% of the African-American population voted for Mr. Bush, i.e. Bush lost no more than 10,000 votes to spoilage. The net effect: Gore had a plurality of at least 77,000 within the uncounted ballots cast by Black citizens.

Note that Palast’s estimate of spoiled ballots does not include thousands of absentee, provisional or stuffed ballots. Or the unknown number of Gore votes dropped or switched to Bush in Cyberspace.

Gore won the unadjusted Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by 53.4-43.6%. The margin of error was 3.0% (including a 30% cluster effect). Based on these numbers, there is a 97.5% probability that Gore won Florida by a minimum of 200,000 votes.

Florida was not unique. The 9.8% margin discrepancy was exceeded in 10 states:
TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

The theft was a prologue of what was to come.

In 2004, the margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 15 states:
VT DE AK CT SC VA NJ HI NH MS PA UT MN NM OH
Kerry won the unadjusted exit polls by 51.1-47.6%. But he did better than that. He won the True Vote Model by 10 million votes with a 53.6% share. But Kerry had just a 48.3% recorded share, officially losing by 3.0 million votes.

In 2008, the exit poll/vote margin discrepancy trend accelerated, exceeding 10% in 28 states. Obama won the unadjusted state exit polls by 58.0%, exactly matching the True Vote Model. With the 58% share, he won the election by 23 million votes. Obama had a 52.9% recorded share, officially winning by 9.5 million votes.

In the 1988-2008 workbook, the state and national exit poll discrepancies are calculated in two ways.

1) The WPD is the difference between the average exit poll precinct margin and the average precinct recorded vote margin.

2) The unadjusted exit poll discrepancy (UEPD) is the difference between the actual total exit poll respondent margin and the total recorded vote margin.

The exit pollsters provide the average Within Precinct Error (WPE) for each state. But that implies that the exit poll was in error, so let’s refer to it as Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).

For example: 2004 NY election
WPD: Kerry won the NY recorded vote by 58.4-40.1%, an 18.3% margin. The exit pollsters indicated a 12.2% WPD, implying that Kerry had an approximate 30.5% (64.5-34.0%) exit poll margin.

UEPD: In the unadjusted NY exit poll (1452 respondents, 3.2% MoE), Kerry had 901 (62.05%), Bush 525 (36.15%), Other 26 (1.80%). Kerry had a 25.9% unadjusted exit poll margin over Bush. The UEPD was 7.6% (25.9-18.3).

The NY exit poll margin of error includes a 30% cluster factor.

Using UEPD, Kerry won nationally by 51.1-47.6%. Using WPD, he won by 52.0-47.0%.

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