Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
http://richardcharnin.com/

Updated: Dec. 14, 2011

It is about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. They need to do a robust probability and statistical analysis which includes the election fraud factor variable in their historical regression factor analyses or polling models.

Conventional media pundit post-election analysis is based on a faulty premise: that it is a perfectly acceptable practice to force the exit polls to match the recorded vote. It is Standard Operating Procedure. It is also unscientific. And it is faith-based.

Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. But the recorded vote has never been equal to the True Vote because of uncounted votes. And now, since HAVA was enacted in 2002, massive State and National UNADJUSTED exit poll discrepancies have been caused by proprietary, unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators programmed to miscount votes.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004, but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since 2004. That’s comparing apples and oranges. FINAL exit polls in elections prior to 2004 are compared to UNADJUSTED exit polls since.

It is not generally known that ALL state and national FINAL exit polls published in the media have ALWAYS been FORCED to match the RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate. But the RECORDED vote has deviated sharply from UNADJUSTED exit polls and the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1968.

The UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate. They closely matched independent True Vote models in all elections from 1988 to 2010. The reason why FINAL state and national exit poll exactly matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote is because they have been forced to match them. It is standard policy.

1988-2008 Unadjusted state and national exit poll database:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=22

The data source is the Roper site:
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP

How the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote:
1) Bush Approval
The unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicates that 50.3% of respondents approved of Bush’s performance. Kerry won the aggregate by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll, a 13,660 subsample of the state exits) by 51.7-47.0%. But in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll, Bush approval was increased to 53%. What was the rationale? To force a match to the recorded vote. Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating.

2) Party-ID
The unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Democratic/Republican/Independent party-ID split. But in the Final National Exit Poll, it was changed to 37-37-26%. What was the rationale? In 2000, Democrats led by 39-35%. In 2004, the vast majority of new voters were registered Democrats, so the 37-37 NEP split is not plausible. It was an artificial fudge toforce a match to the recorded vote.

This graph shows a near-perfect correlation between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=21

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 148 of 300 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded a conservative 3.0% margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the MoE was exceeded in 37 states). Note that the 1988 total (14) is based on limited unadjusted exit poll data for just 24 states, so the true number must be higher than 14. The 148 exit pol discrepancies were distributed as follows: 1988:14, 1992:30, 1996:21, 2000:21, 2004:25, 2008:37

But here is the real smoking gun. Of the 148 exit polls that exceeding the 3.0% MoE, 138 shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is ZERO. The movement from the exit polls to the vote has been in ONE direction. It is proof of systemic vote miscounts beyond any doubt

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential exit polls by a massive 51.6-41.8% margin, closely matching the True Vote Model (TVM).

This workbook is an analytical database of 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model enables anyone to run scenarios over a range of prior election voter turnout assumptions in the current election and incremental changes in current NEP vote shares:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. But they won’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

They also claim that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

They don’t mention the 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 which may have cost Dukakis the election. Or the six million uncounted votes which definitely cost Al Gore the 2000 election. Or that over 80 million votes (mostly Democratic) were uncounted in the 11 elections since 1968.

The experts and pundits should consider the following factors:
- Use votes cast (not votes recorded)in their analysis (i.e. stipulate uncounted votes).
- Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.
- Indicate that LV polls are a subset of RV polls.
- Note that the Likely Voter Cutoff Model has a built-in bias against new, Democratic voters.
- Allocate undecided votes (75% to the challenger) and uncounted votes (75% to the Democrat).
- Apply voter mortality rates before estimating new and returning voter turnout.
- Discuss the correlation between state unadjusted exit polls, approval ratings and Party-ID.
- Ask why the Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote.
- Ask why the Final NEP indicates more returning prior election voters than were living.

These are just some of the facts that the experts never mention:

- In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (11,645 respondents) by 49.6-48.4% (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes, an indicator that Dukakis may have won. But he lost by 7 million recorded votes.

- In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. The NEP implied that there was a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

- In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

- In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

- In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

- In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Election forecasters, political scientists, academics and media pundits never consider the overwhelming evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that Democratic landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008. Or that Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010. They never mention the massive documented evidence of Election Fraud, yet never stop talking about non-existent Voter Fraud. They talk about voter suppression as if it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.

They refer to the final exit polls for demographic trends. But they won’t tell you that the finals are always forced to match the recorded vote – and therefore all demographic category crosstabs understate the Democratic vote.

They claim that the 2004 pre-election poll average predicted a Bush win. But they don’t tell you that the weighted average predicted a Kerry win. Or that they were using LV polls before allocating undecided voters. Or that the RV polls, adjusted for undecided voters, predicted a 51-48% Kerry win.

They claim that Bush won by 3 million votes. But they won’t tell you that in order to match the recorded vote, the Final 2004 NEP required 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still living in 2004 -a mathematically impossible 110% turnout.

They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they won’t mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls and that the trend line gave them a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll. Or that approximately 20 House seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that the RV polls projected that he would win by 57-41%. Or that Obama had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share and a 22 million vote margin.

They don’t mention that in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, the Final NEP required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters – which meant there had to be 12 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

The pundits failed to question why in the 2010 midterms, the Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the election. Or why Giannoulias easily won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Or why Sestak lost the Pennsylvania Senate race after leading in the exit polls.

You can be sure that election forecasters, political scientists, media pundits and the Democrats won’t bring up the fact that Obama’s 2008 True Vote was reduced by a 5% fraud factor. Considering that the 1988-2008 average Democratic True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even. He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.

2004 Election Model Graphs
National Trend
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image001.png
Electoral vote and win probability
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image002.png
Electoral and popular vote
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image003.png
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image004.png
National Poll Trend
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image008.png
Monte Carlo Simulation
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image011.png
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
http://www.richardcharnin.com/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image012.png

Advertisement