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Monthly Archives: December 2011

Mathematical Proof: JFK, Election Fraud and 9/11

Richard Charnin
Updated: Sept. 4, 2012

These are not conspiracy THEORIES. These are conspiracy FACTS. It’s all in the numbers.

The JFK Assassination
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/jfk/

The probability that AT LEAST 15 JFK-related witnesses out of 1400 would have UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination is 1 in 167 TRILLION!
P = 1- Poisson(14, 1400*0.000542, true)

View the JFK Witness Spreadsheet database.

- At least 33 JFK material witnesses died unnaturally in the 3 years following the assassination.
The probability that EXACTLY 33 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(33, 3*1400*0.000542, false)

- At least 70 died unnaturally in the 14 years following the assassination.
The probability that EXACTLY 70 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(70, 14*1400*0.000542, false)

In 1977 the House Select Committee on Assassinations investigated the murders of JFK and MLK. The HSCA determined that both were conspiracies.

In a given year we would normally expect ONE unnatural death in a random group of 1400 people. But within one year of the JFK assassination, there were 15 unnatural witness deaths – including Lee Harvey Oswald, who was shot by Jack Ruby in front of millions of television viewers on Nov. 24, 1963. Oswald said he was just a “patsy”. This analysis indicates he was telling the truth. Transcripts of Oswald’s interrogation were destroyed. He was conveniently disposed of before he could get a lawyer.

The Proof:
There are two parameters in the Poisson probability function: the expected number (a) of unlikely events and the actual number (m).
The Poisson function is: P(m) = a^m * exp(-a)/ m!

In any given year, the expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in a group of N people is equal to N times the probability (p) of an unnatural death: a= p*N

Probability 1 year
suicide……… 0.000107
homicide…… 0.000062
accidental….. 0.000359
undetermined 0.000014

Prob (p)……. 0.000542 (total)

N = 1400 the number of witnesses
p = .000542 is the probability of an unnatural death in a given year

Expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in one year:
a = 0.7588 = p*N = 000542*1400

Poisson Distribution

The Poisson probability is:
P(m) = a^m * exp (-a) / m! or
P(15) = .7588^15 * exp (-.7588)/15!
P(exactly 15 deaths) = 1 in 175,441,539,952,741 = 1 in 175 TRILLION

This graph displays the probabilities over a range of unnatural deaths and witnesses.

The probability of AT LEAST n UNNATURAL deaths in a group of N= 1400 over T years
P = 1- Poisson(n-1,1400*T*.000542, true)

The probability of AT LEAST n UNNATURAL deaths in a group of N= 1400 over T=1 year

n 1 in

1 2
2 6
3 24
4 132
5 892
6 7,195
7 67,346
8 718,040
9 8,593,044
10 114,073,493
11 1,663,713,384
12 26,445,366,889
13 455,051,758,699
14 8,427,523,639,942

15 167,145,910,421,722

______________________________________________________________________________

Election Fraud

Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.

The Law of large numbers and the Binomial Distribution Function

There were 274 state presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections. Of the 274, 226 red-sshifted to the Republican from the poll to the vote. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 126 of the 274. Of the 126, 123 deviated in favor of the Republican.

The probabilities are ZERO for each.

1)226 red-shift to the GOP…… 3.71E-31 =binomdist(56,68,.5,false)^4
2)126 exceed MoE……………. 7.98E-75 =poisson(126,.05*274,false)
3)123 exceed MoE (GOP)………. 5.38E-106 =poisson(123,.025*274,false)

The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site.

The True Vote Model (TVM)
The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.1% unadjusted exit poll share.

The Democrats led in the 1988-2008 election averages by the following margins…
1) recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) unadjusted STATE exit poll: 51.8-41.6%
3) unadjusted NATIONAL exit poll: 51.7-41.7

True Vote Model:
Democratic vote shares based on Prior Election…
4) Recorded Vote 50.17
5) Votes Cast 51.57
6) Exit Poll 52.50
7) True Vote 53.00

View the 1988-2008 Election Summary

The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in these states:

1988
CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis won the National Exit Poll with 50.3% and had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground unadjusted state exit polls. He lost by 7 million votes. There were 11 million uncounted votes.

1992
AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton had a 18 million vote margin in the unadjusted state exit polls. He won the recorded vote by just 6 million. There were 9 million uncounted votes.

1996
AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the unadjusted state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes. There were 9 million uncounted votes.

2000
AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. The election was stolen. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

2004
CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH. He won the unadjusted state AND NATIONAL exit polls by 5-6 million with a 51.1-51.7% share. The TVM indicates that he won the True Vote by 10 million with 53.5%. But the election was stolen. He lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

2008
AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit polls, a 23 million vote margin -exactly matching the TVM. But his recorded share was just 52.9%, a 9.5 million margin.

Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.

______________________________________________________________________________

9/11

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton’s_laws_of_motion

WTC Building 7 collapsed at free-fall (i.e. controlled demolition) at 5:20pm on 9/11. It was not hit by a plane. But less than half of Americans have heard of Building 7. How would they know about it? Building 7 was NEVER mentioned in the 9/11 Commission hearings or noted in the official 9/11 report.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitation

The media won’t touch this – just like they won’t discuss the facts about election fraud and JFK. Rather, thee “official” version is shown on the National Geographic Channel, the History Channel or publications such as Slate and Popular Mechanics.

Sir Isaac Newton is spinning in his grave.

Towers 1 and 2 fell at near free-fall with office debris expelled LATERALLY at a distance of 600 feet. There has NEVER been a steel-framed building that collapsed due to fires. That’s because aircraft fires burn at approximately 1500 degrees. Steel melts at 2700 degrees.

But NIST still claims that all three buildings collapsed due to office fires on 9/11 – while at the same time admitting that Building 7 fell at free-fall for 2.5 seconds. Thank you, David Chandler, for forcing NIST to admit free-fall.

And thank you, David Chandler, for your masterful presentation at the Toronto 9/11 Hearings . Viewers will be forced to either believe their lying ears and eyes (and science) or they will choose to remain in the fog of collective cognitive dissonance.

Now, what is the probability of each of the following events?

- William Rodriguez, a janitor at the WTC on 9/11, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony wouldbe ignored by the 9/11 commission.
- The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
- The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
- The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
- For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

- Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
- April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
- NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
- NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
- There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.

- Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions.
- Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
- Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
- When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
- At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

- A passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
- There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
- Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
- Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11.
- 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.

- There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11.
- Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
- Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
- There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
- There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

- The media would not investigate these facts.

 
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Posted by on December 26, 2011 in Uncategorized

 

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2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Dec. 24, 2011

This analysis has been updated to include the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls.
http://richardcharnin.com/2008LateVotes.htm

The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site:
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7% higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.

On Election Day 2000, 102.6 million votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2004, 116.7 million votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2008, 121.21 million were recorded. Obama led by 63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%). There were 10.16m late votes recorded after Election Day. Obama won these late votes by 59.2-37.5%, a 7% increase in his Election Day share and 15% increase in margin. The final recorded vote total was 131.4 million. Obama won by 69.5-59.9m (52.87-45.62%).

http://richardcharnin.com/2008LateVotes.htm

It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because
1) They were cast using paper ballots, not on unverifiable DREs
2) Since the winner was known on Election Day, there was nothing to gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.

The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. But the state exit polls were generally very close to the late recorded vote shares. The largest percentage deviations were in states with a relatively small number of late votes – as to be expected. Assuming that the late votes were fairly representative of the total state electorate, then the late votes can be viewed as super exit polls with thousands more respondents than corresponding state exit polls in which 1000-2500 voters are interviewed.

2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes

Obama won the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5% – a close match to his 59.2% late recorded share. There were 83,000 exit poll respondents. The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a 61-37% margin and had a 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.

Obama’s late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the following states. He had…
64.5% of New Jersey’s 224,000 late recorded votes and 63.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
67.9% of Maryland’s 277,000 late votes and 67.2% in the exit poll.
70.7% of New York’s 584,000 late votes and 71.5% in the exit poll.
54.6% of Ohio’s 500,000 late votes and 56.3% in the exit poll.
51.6% of Florida’s 405,000 late votes and 52.1% in the exit poll.

68.9% of Illinois’ 183,000 late votes and 66.3% in the exit poll.
47.5% of Mississippi’s 77,000 late votes and 48.4% in the exit poll.
49.7% of Tennessee’s 19,000 late votes and 47.7% in the exit poll.
49.1% of South Carolina’s 117,000 late votes and 47.6% in the exit poll.
46.2% of Kansas’ 32,000 late votes and 46.1% in the exit poll.

2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6% (76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.

Assuming that Kerry’s 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the True Vote Model which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the “pristine” exit polls were close to the True Vote, namely:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True Vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.

 
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Posted by on December 24, 2011 in Uncategorized

 

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Current TV and Election Truth

Current TV and Election Truth

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Dec. 7, 2011

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton criticized Russia today for a parliamentary election she said was rigged. She also said that election gains by Islamist parties must not set back Egypt’s push toward democracy.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57337344/clinton-calls-for-russian-poll-fraud-probe/

Hillary talks about Election Fraud in Russia. But we never hear a peep from politicians or the media about systemic election fraud in the U.S. The hypocrisy is overwhelming.

But now Cenk Uygur, a hard-hitting progressive blogger and former MSNBC host, this week introduced his own show, The Young Turks, on Current TV. Cenk has always impressed this observer with his rational, well-delivered commentary. Now he has the chance to step up and expose the facts of systemic U.S. election fraud that have been kept hidden by a totally corrupted corporate media. Cenk and Keith Olbermann are no longer constrained by their corporate masters.

Current TV was founded by Al Gore, the man who was elected president in 2000 but never took office. The election was stolen from the 55 million Americans who voted for him. According to unadjusted state exit polls and the independent True Vote Model, Gore won by 6 million votes. The American public has been hoodwinked by the corporate media into thinking that he won by only 540,000 nationally and that he lost the election in Florida by 537 votes. A mini-landslide was denied by a judicial/political coup in plain sight. The effects of the theft are obvious – just look around.

2000 state unadjusted exit polls vs. the recorded votes:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=4

In 2004 it was John Kerry’s turn. One week after the election, MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann (now Current TV’s lead anchor) presented a powerful expose of the nefarious election anomalies in Ohio and Florida. Another election was stolen, this time from the 67 million who voted for John Kerry. Unfortunately, KO never followed up on the massive election fraud. The public was once again hoodwinked by the corporate media into believing that Bush won by 3 million votes. But it was Kerry who was the real winner of a 10 million True Vote landslide.

2004 state unadjusted exit polls vs. the recorded votes:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

In 2008, Obama won by 9.5 million votes and had 365 electoral votes. He had a 52.9% RECORDED VOTE SHARE. But the True Vote Model indicates that he had 58% (76-53 million) and 420 electoral votes – exactly matching the aggregate of the UNADJUSTED STATE EXIT POLLS (83,388 respondents). But there is more: The UNADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (17836 respondents), a subset of the state polls, indicates that Obama won by a MASSIVE 61-37%. The landslide was denied.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

The Election Truth Movement is hopeful that Cenk and Keith will do their job. They need to remind us of the hypocrisy of U.S. politicians and media pundits who criticize election fraud outside the U.S. but never discuss it here. If Current TV won’t break the ice, who will? The last thing we need is for Current to morph into MSNBC Light.

 
3 Comments

Posted by on December 5, 2011 in Media

 

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