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The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

21 Feb

The myth that the early 2004 exit polls were biased for Kerry is refuted by the National Exit Poll (NEP) timeline. Kerry had 51% at 4pm (8,349 respondents). His exit poll share remained constant up to the final 13,660 respondents (51.7%). The pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to have the Final NEP match the recorded vote. Assuming that Kerry had 51.7% of 125.7 million votes cast, he won by nearly 6 million votes. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

Of course, ALL National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs also had to be adjusted to match the vote. In the NEP “Voted in 2000″ crosstab, 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 Bush voters were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, there were at least 5 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS. The NEP also claims that just 37% of Kerry voters were returning Gore 2000 voters. That is ridiculous; Gore had 540,000 more recorded votes than Bush. Once again, the 6% red-shift rears its ugly head (43-37=6%). THIS SIMPLE BASIC LOGIC PROVES MASSIVE 2004 ELECTION FRAUD.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

To view the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database click this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

The source data is provided by the Roper Center UConn

The data for each election is viewed by clicking the indicated tab at the top of the screen. State exit polls are displayed in the same row as the recorded vote. The national aggregate exit poll is calculated by weighting the state exit poll shares by votes cast.
Aggregate National share = Sum(exit poll(i) * state weight(i)) / National Votes Cast, i = 1,51 states

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 15% 62% 37% 1%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 42% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 61% 12% 27%

Total 100% 51% 47% 2%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents 
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1% 

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 59% 39% 2%
Gore. 38% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 65% 13% 22%

Total 100% 50.9% 47.1% 2.0%

11/3/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3% 64% 17% 19%

Total 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (true sample)
Data Source: Roper Center UConn

Kerry 51.7%; Bush 47.0%

Total Kerry Bush Other
13660 7064 6414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

Vote04  Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 18.4% 57% 42% 1%
Gore. 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.75% 64% 17% 19%

Total 100% 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted sample)
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct exit poll discrepancy was a nearly identical 6.5%.

Final NEP (forced to match)
Kerry 48.3%; Bush 50.7% 

Final Kerry Bush Other
13660 6593 6930 137
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore. 37% 90% 10% 0% << GORE 37%? HE WON THE RECORDED VOTE BY 540,000
Bush. 43% 9% 91% 0% << BUSH 43%?
Other 3% 71% 21% 8%

Total 100% 48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Unadjusted NEP: Gender Demographic
Kerry 51.8%; Bush 47.2%

Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0%

Total.. 100% 51.8% 47.2% 1.0%

Final Adjusted (forced to match recorded vote)
Kerry 47.8%; Bush 51.2%

Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0%

Total.. 100% 47.8% 51.2% 1.0%

True Vote Model
Kerry 53.5%; Bush 45.1%

Voted04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17.0% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 41.5% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush. 38.0% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 3.50% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 100 53.5% 45.1% 1.4%

2008
Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents), but just a 52.87% recorded share. The pollsters had to effectively reduce Obama’s respondents from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force the final NEP to match the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 58%.

Click for the Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17836 respondents)

Final NEP (Unadjusted)
Obama 61.0%; McCain 37.2%

Sample Obama McCain Other
17836 10873 6641 322
Share 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

Final NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.6%

Sample Obama McCain Other
17,836 9,430 8,137 269
Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (True Vote)
Obama 58.0%; McCain 40.4%

Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush. 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.2% 5.9 4.5% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%

Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes .... .... 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2%

Final National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded)
Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.6%

Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0% << 37.0% KERRY?
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% << 46.0% BUSH? 9% DIFFERENTIAL?
Other 4.6% 5.3 4.0% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%

Total 100% 131.5 100% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes .... .... 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

Final National Exit Poll – Gender (forced to match recorded)
Obama 52.7%; McCain 45.4%

Gender Mix Obama McCain Other
Male.. 47.0% 49.0% 48.0% 3.0%
Female 53.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%

Total. 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on February 21, 2012 in 2004 Election, Media

 

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One response to “The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

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