Wisconsin Governor Recall: A True Vote Model Analysis

Wisconsin Governor Recall: A True Vote Model Analysis

Richard Charnin
May 3, 2012

Barrett should win easily – assuming ZERO fraud.
But there WILL be fraud. So let’s look at the scenarios.

Let’s check out the Wisconsin True Vote Model.

In 2008, Obama had a 56.2% recorded vote share in Wisconsin. But he had 63.2% in the unadjusted exit poll (n=2,545 respondents). The poll had a 2.43% margin of error (including a 30% “cluster effect”).

MoE = (1+cluster) * Stdev * sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)
MoE = 2.43% = 1.3 * 1.96 * sqrt(.639*.361/2545)

There is a near 100% probability that Obama’s True Wisconsin share exceeded 60%:

All of the following scenarios assume that Obama had a 60% WI share.
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CONSERVATIVE Base Case assumptions (favoring Walker)

Returning 2008 Voter Turnout (net 5% to Walker)
65% Obama voter turnout
70% McCain voter turnout

Voter Defection (net 5% to Walker)
Barrett wins 90% of returning Obama voters
Barrett wins 5% of returning McCain voters

Barrett wins by 54.6-45.4% (198,000 votes)
Walker needs to steal 8.4% of Democratic votes to win.

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Zero Net Turnout and Voter Defection Scenarios

1. Equal 70% turnout; Barrett wins 90% of Obama and 5% of McCain voters
Barrett has 56.2% and wins by 267,000 votes.
Walker needs to steal 11% to win.

2. Equal 70% Turnout; Barrett wins 95% of Obama and 5% of McCain voters.
Barrett has 59% and wins by 387,000 votes.
Walker needs to steal 15% to win.
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Democratic Worst Case Scenarios

1. Voter Turnout: 65% of Obama; 70% of McCain
Barrett wins 85% of Obama voters and 0% of McCain voters.
Barrett has 50.2% and wins by 9,000 votes.

2. Voter Turnout: 60% Obama; 75% McCain
Barrett wins 90% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters.
Barrett has 51.8% and wins by 80,000 votes.

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Implausible Scenarios required for Walker to win a fair election

1. Voter Turnout: 55% Obama; 80% McCain
Vote share: Barrett wins 90% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters.
Barrett has 49.1% and loses by 38,000.

2. Voter Turnout: 65% Obama; 70% McCain
Vote share: Barrett wins 80% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters.
Barrett has 49.4% and loses by 25,000.

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