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Monthly Archives: June 2012

Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.22,2013

In any statistical study, the best data must first be collected. The following election fraud analysis is based on the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database.

The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Exit polls are available for 274 state presidential elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Exit polls are surveys conducted in selected voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Voters are randomly selected as they leave the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (Democrat, Republican, Independent), 6) philosophy (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

In this analysis we consider the most important question: who did you vote for? Having this information, we calculate the discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Note that respondents are not asked to provide personal information. There is no excuse for not releasing exit poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.

Key results

- Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Republicans is ZERO. One would normally expect that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicanss.

- Of the 274, there were 55 state elections in which Republicans won the vote and the Democrats won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Iowa and Minnesota in 2000) in which they won the exit poll. The probability of this occurrence is virtually ZERO. If the elections were fair, the number of flips would be nearly equal.

- The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).

- 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). There is a ZERO probability that the one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on current and previous election votes cast (Census), voter mortality and returning voter turnout. Published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares were applied to new and returning voters. The TVM closely matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls in each election. It shows that the exit poll discrepancies were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the NEP to match the recorded vote. The exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. These adjustments are clearly indicated by the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..

The bedrock of statistical polling analysis is the Law of Large Numbers. As the number of observations in a survey increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. For instance, in coin flipping, as the number of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.

The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). It is used throughout statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Note that a normally-distributed variable has a symmetric distribution about its mean.

The Binomial distribution distribution calculates the probability P that a given number of events (successes) would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. For instance, the probability of flipping heads (a success) is 50%. In a fair election, the probability that the exit poll would flip from the Democrat to the Republican is also 50%.

The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. For instance, there is a 5% (1 in 20) probability that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.

The Binomial distribution converges towards the Poisson as the number of trials (n) approaches infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution B(n,p) if n is sufficiently large and p sufficiently small.

The exit poll margin of error is based on the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.

Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll

This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is a subset of the state polls. The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. But the NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote with nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004. Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.

Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Bush voters or 38.4% of the 122.3 million who voted. But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters). There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.

So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23.1 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49.7 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4.7 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125.7 100% 65.07 58.83 1.84

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout

DNV. 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Bush 52.6 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47.9 110% (impossible 2000 voter turnout)
Other 3.7 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122.3 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2

Ohio 2004 presidential election
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% (119,000 vote margin). In the exit poll, 2020 voters were sampled, of whom 1092 voted for Kerry (54.1%) and 924 for Bush (45.7%). There was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) Kerry won the election and b) of Bush getting his recorded vote share.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s True Vote was within 2.8% of his exit poll share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. The Normal distribution calculates a 99.8% probability that Kerry won Ohio.
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)

Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. The probability that the 5.1% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). So which most closely represented how the True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?

1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Roper Center site, which comprised 68.7 million (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Dukakis led the 24-poll aggregate by 51.6-47.3%. Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. The exit poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).

Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 49.8-49.2%, but Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%, a 7 million vote margin. According to the Census, 102.2 million votes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. Dukakis had approximately 8 million (75%) of the uncounted votes (see below). That may be one of the reasons why Dukakis won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.

Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Democrats leading in the exit polls to the Republicans winning the recorded vote is given by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P= 1.13E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is ZERO.

The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Republicans. The Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.

In pre-election polls, the margin of error (MoE) is based strictly on the number of respondents. In exit polls, however, a "cluster factor" is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the MoE was exceeded in 1988-2008 (and the corresponding probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.

The MoE was exceeded in 135 of 274 exit polls assuming a 30% "cluster factor" (the base case). Although 30% is the most common estimate, political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Poll Spreadsheet Reference. The purpose is to determine the number of exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded over a range of cluster factors. Even with extremely conservative cluster factor assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a ZERO probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in the six elections. Were the massive discrepancies due to inferior polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud - beyond any doubt?

Overwhelming Evidence
The one-sided results of the 375,000 state exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Republicans in every election since 1988.

Fraud certainly cost the Democrats at least two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.

To those who say that quoting these impossible probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.

Media polling pollsters, pundits and academics need to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create their own True Vote models. So-called independent journalists need to discuss the devil in the details of systemic election fraud. They can start by trying to debunk the analysis presented here.

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied
Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares as measured by:
1) Recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Unadjusted State Exit Polls: 51.7-41.6%
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%

True Vote Model (method based on previous election returning voters)
5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Method 2: 51.6-42.0% (allocation of uncounted votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
8) Method 4: 53.0-40.6% (recursive True Vote)

The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in the following states. The corresponding decline in electoral votes cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections:

1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis' electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. The U.S. Vote Census indicated that there were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Since only 24 states were exit polled, a proxy equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.

The rationale for deriving the estimate is Method 2 of the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Democrat. The resulting 51.6% average Democratic share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.

1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton's EV flipped from from 501 to 370.

1996 (11): AL CO GA IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton's EV flipped from 464 to 379.

2000 (12): AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE to win)
Gore's EV flipped from 382 to 267.

2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry's EV flipped from 349 to 252.

2008 (7): AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama's EV flipped from 419 to 365.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama's projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on June 25, 2012 in True Vote Models

 

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2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model

2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model

Richard Charnin
June 22,2012

The model will be run on a periodic basis up to Election Day.
a) The True Vote Model is based on estimated turnout and vote share assumptions
b) The Simulation model is based on the latest state and national polls.

NOV.5 UPDATE: VIEW FINAL FORECAST HERE

Read this overview of Monte Carlo Simulation and True Vote methodology.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. In 2008, Obama had 58% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the 1988-2008 True Vote Model. But his recorded vote share was just 52.9%. Therefore, assuming the same 5% red-shift differential, Obama needs at least a 55% True Vote share to win the popular vote.

Rasmussen is a GOP pollster who provides a Likely Voter (LV) subset of the total number of Registered Voters (RV). The majority of registered voters excluded by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are Democrats.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

The 2004 Election Model weekly projections started in July and were based on the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. It projected Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7%). The election was stolen.

The 2006 House Trend Forecast Model was based on 120 Generic polls. It projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote and was virtually identical to the unadjusted National Exit Poll (56.37%). The NEP was forced to match the recorded 52-46% vote share. The landslide was denied. Election fraud cost the Democrats 15-20 House seats.

The 2008 Election Model projection was published weekly. The final projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents). The landslide was denied.

The 2010 Election Forecast Model predicted a 234-201 GOP House based on the final 30 likely voter (LV) Generic polls (the GOP led by 48.7-41.9%). It predicted a 221-214 GOP House based on the final 19 registered voter (RV) polls (the GOP led by 45.1-44.4%). The Final National Exit Poll was a near match to the LV pre-election poll average. The Democratic margin was 6.1% higher in the RV polls than the LVs.

The model predicted a 50-48 Democratic Senate based on 37 LV polls in which the GOP led by 48.1-43.5%. It predicted a 53-45 Democratic margin based on a combination of 18 RV and 19 LV polls in which they led by 45.2-44.6%, a 5.2% increase in margin.

There were no RV polls in the realclearpolitics.com final polling averages. CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races. The Democrats led the RV polls in 11 states (49.2-40.6%) and the LV subset in 8 (46.6-45.8%), an 8% difference in margin.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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Massive 1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies: A Probability Analysis

Massive 1988-2008 Exit Poll Discrepancies: A Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 21, 2012
Update: July, 3, 2014

This post reviews probability calculation methods used to analyze the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls.

The 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database consists of individual election worksheets. The tables contain unadjusted state exit poll samples, vote share, margin, votes cast and recorded, margin of error, win probability, electoral vote, region and the weighted aggregate of the unadjusted state exit poll shares. In addition, the workbook includes graphics, exit poll time lines, red-shift analysis, early vs. late voting statistics, net uncounted votes, 2006 and 2010 exit polls, etc.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42% and the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% reduction in margin. In 274 state exit polls, there were approximately 375,000 respondents – a very large sample of six presidential elections. Like much other statistical analysis, the results are based on the Law of Large Numbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

The data source:
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.T-Nl2Rc7WAj

Unadjusted exit polls tell us exactly how respondents said they voted. Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote count.The discrepancy is the difference between the exit poll and recorded vote margins.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The True Vote Model estimates voter intent based on mortality, turnout and vote shares. It has confirmed the unadjusted exit polls to within 1%.

The polling margin of error (MoE) is a function of the number of respondents (n) and 2-party shares.
MoE = 1.3 * sqrt (p * (1-p)/n), where 1.3 is 30% cluster effect factor.

Example: Florida 2004 (2862 respondents)
Kerry led the exit poll by 50.8-48.0% (two-party 51.4-48.6)%.
But Bush won the recorded vote by 52.1-47.1%

The FL exit poll MoE = 2.38% = 1.3 * 1.96 * sqrt (.514*.486/2862)
Kerry’s 2-party vote (x) would be expected to fall within the following interval 95% of the time.
Mean – MoE < x < Mean+ MoE or
49% < x < 53.8%.

The probability that Kerry won FL is given by the Normal Distribution Function:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

P = Normdist (Poll, .5, MoE/1.96, true)
P = 87.6% = Normdist (.514, .5, .0238/1.96, true)

Example: 2004 National Exit Poll

Kerry led the unadjusted poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0% (2-party: 52.3-47.7%). But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%.
The National exit poll margin of error was 1.1%.

Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

The probability P that Kerry won the popular vote is calculated as:
P = 99.97% = Normdist (.523, .5, .011/1.96, true)
Let’s be conservative and increase the margin of error to 2.0%.
P = 98.7% = Normdist (.523, .5, .02/1.96, true)

The National Exit Poll, with no change to the 13660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. This is standard procedure for all exit polls. The NEP implied that 43% of the 2004 electorate (52.6 million) were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and another 1-2 million did not return in 2004. There could have no more than 46-47 million returning Bush voters. The 2004 NEP indicated an impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004. The exit pollsters forced an impossible poll to match an impossible vote using impossible returning voter weights.

Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
A total of 226 polls (82.4%) shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 48 shifted to the Democrat. Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been an equal shift to the Republican and the Democrat. What is the probability P of 226 polls red-shifting to the Republicans?

The Binomial distribution function:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

Unfortunately, the spreadsheet Binomial function cannot calculate the probability; the inputs are too large. We need to break the problem into four equal pieces: 56 of 68 exit polls red-shift with probability p.

p = Binomdist (56, 68, .5, false)
P = p*p*p*p (equivalent to P = Binomdist (224, 272, .5, false))
P = 3.7E-31
P = 1 in 2.7 million trillion trillion trillion

Note E-31 is scientific notation for 31 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3 represents .001 or 1/1000

Example: The MoE was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls
Only 14 would normally be expected to since there is a 5% probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in an election. Of the 135 polls, 131 moved in favor of the Republicans (only 7 would be expected).

The Poisson function is used for analyzing a series of events (like in queuing systems) in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

The probability P that 131 out of 274 would favor the Republican is:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 106 places to the right of the decimal.
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001
P = 1 in trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.

For each presidential election, the following table summarizes a) the number of state elections which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote, b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican, c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican, d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote.

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Year Exit% Vote% Diff
1988 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may very well have won a close election.
1992 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
2000 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore won by 5-7 million True votes.
2004 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry won a 10 million True vote landslide.
2008 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama won a 23 million True vote landslide.

Total 51.8 47.9 3.9

Read this excellent article by Bob Fitrakis in The Free Press.

Polling is not an exact science. But the 274 state exit polls and 6 national exit polls over the 1988-2008 presidential elections confirm beyond any doubt that the massive discrepancies must be due to election fraud.

The exit pollsters are funded by the National Election Pool. The pollsters always seem to get it “wrong” in the US, and then have to make impossible adjustments to get it “right”. Why do the exit pollsters always get it “wrong” in the US but get it “right” in the Ukraine and Republic of Georgia?

Any standard statistical/probability analysis applied to publicly available data results in only one reasonable conclusion: election fraud is pervasive and systemic.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on June 21, 2012 in True Vote Models, Uncategorized

 

2010 Florida and Ohio Governor elections: How the unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the final recorded vote

Richard Charnin

June 15, 2012

We do not have the unadjusted Walker recall exit poll numbers. If we did, we could do an analysis similar to the following.

The 2010 Florida and Ohio Governor exit polls were adjusted to match the vote counts – and red-shifted from the Democrat to the Republican.

In Florida, Sink (D) won the exit poll by 50.8-45.4% but lost the recorded vote to Scott by 48.4-49.6%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy. There were 3,150 respondents. The margin of error was 2.3%. Sink had a 99% win probability.

In Ohio, Strickland (D) won the exit poll by 49.9-47.4% but lost the vote to Kasich by 49.8-47.7%, a 4.6% margin discrepancy. There were 3,305 respondents. The margin of error was 2.2%. Strickland had an 88% win probability.

In order to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to change ALL demographic category weightings from the unadjusted to the Final.

From this:
Roper unadjusted exit polls
to this:
CNN 2010 Election Center (final adjusted exit polls)

The final exit polls show the adjusted weightings for the key demographic categories. But keep in mind that similar changes had to have been made in ALL demographic crosstabs.

Since we have the unadjusted weightings from the Roper site, we can estimate the “pristine” unadjusted vote shares by “goal-seeking” (trial and error). Then we can calculate the changes in weightings and vote shares that were required to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. These are shown on the right side of the Ohio and Florida worksheet screens.

This spread sheet shows the key exit poll crosstabs – and the adjustments:
2010 Midterms Spreadsheet: Ohio and Florida Governor

Faulty exit polling?

Why is it that the pundits always assume that the exit poll discrepancies are always the result of faulty polling? You would think that after 50 years, the exit pollsters would get it right. And they do get it right, but very few know it.

They get it right in the unadjusted exit polls. But they just keep on adjusting the polls anyway – to match the vote. That is what they get paid for. Otherwise, they would no longer be polling for the National Election Pool.

So what is getting it “right”? Is it forcing the exit polls to match the recorded vote – even when the election is rigged? Or is it by declaring that the uncontaminated, unadjusted exit poll stands by itself – and is a close approximation to the True Vote.

2010 Governor True Vote Analysis

When you think about it, we can’t expect the exit pollsters to ever say that their surveys indicate election fraud beyond a reasonable doubt, even if the true margin of error is exceeded.

The question to ask is: why are the category weights and vote shares changed in the first place? But we already know the answer. It’s what the pollsters and the media won’t talk about. It’s because of election fraud. If they didn’t adjust the numbers, the media would have to report them. And the last thing the media wants to do is to discuss is how voting machines are programmed to miscount the votes.

But how do we prove it?

The Ultimate Smoking Gun: 1988-2008 state presidential exit polls

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections there were 274 state exit polls, of which 226 red-shifted from the poll to the vote for the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. Assuming no fraud, approximately 150 would be expected for each. The probability P that 252 would red-shift to the Republican is:
P = Binomdist (63, 75, .5, false) ^ 4
P = 2.3E-37
P = 1 in 4 trillion trillion trillion

The margin of error was exceeded in 126 of the 274 polls (only 14 would normally be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is ZERO:
P =Poisson (126, .05*274, false)

The margin of error was exceeded in 123 of exit polls in favor of GOP (only 7 would be expected). The probability P is:
P= 5E-106 = Poisson (123,.025*274, false)

The following table summarizes a) the number of state elections which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote, b) the number of states (n) in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican, c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE, d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the deviation between the exit poll and recorded vote.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 46.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 50.3 45.7 4.6
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1

Total 252. 134. 5.0E-115… 51.8 47.9 3.9

2010 Unadjusted National Exit Poll to Final (Red-shift)

Voted 2008 (Obama-McCain)
48-45 to 45-45 (3)

Party ID
37D- 35.8R- 27.2I to 35-35-30 (1.2)

Ideology
20.6% Liberal – 40.9% Moderate – 38.5% Conservative to 20-38-42

2010 State Unadjusted Exit Poll to Final (Red-shift)

Gender (M/F)
OH 45.5-54.5 to 48-52 (5)
FL 42.9-57.1 to 45-55 (4.2)

Party ID
OH 38.4D- 33.8R- 27.8I to 36-36-20 (4.6)
FL 39.3D- 33.9R- 26.8I to 35-36-27 (6.4)

Governor Vote
OH 49.9D-47.4R to 47-50 (recorded 47.8-49.8) (4.5)
FL 50.8D-45.4R to 48-50 (recorded 48.4-49.6) (5.6)

Obama Approval
OH 45.8 to 42 (3.2)
FL 49.2 to 45 (4.2)

Voted 2008 (Obama-McCain)
OH 50.3-45.4 to 44-47 (7.9)
FL 52.2-44.2 to 47-47 (8.0)

 

Walker Recall: The Exit Pollster’s MO Never Changes

Richard Charnin
June 9, 2012

The exit pollster’s MO never changes. In the recall, the pundits said it was “too close to call”. I’m quite sure that Barrett was winning, but the media knew the fix was in so they had to keep it close. They knew the actual exit poll numbers would not see the light of day. But they sure called it quickly for Walker, didn’t they?

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/06/wisconsin-recall-the-adjusted-final-exit-poll-was-forced-to-match-an-unlikely-recorded-vote/

The pollster’s have had plenty of experience in adjusting exit polls to match the vote count.

In 2004, preliminary state exit poll numbers were downloaded from the CNN website by Jonathan Simon. Kerry led by 50-48%. The state polls were already in the process of being matched to the recorded vote. But Bush was winning the vote count – a massive divergence from the exit polls.

We later learned that Kerry led the National Exit Poll from 4pm to midnight. At 4pm (8349 respondents) he led by 51-48%. At 730 pm (11027 respondents) by 51-48%. At 1222am (13047) by 51-47%. But we didn’t see these numbers. They were not meant for public viewing.

The next day, the CNN and NYT websites showed that Bush won the National Exit Poll (13660) by 51-48% – matching the recorded vote. How did the final 613 National Exit Poll respondents enable Bush to flip the vote? The exit pollsters never could answer that one. After all, the flip was mathematically impossible.

The unadjusted 2004 exit polls (state and national) were not released until about a year ago, long after the damage was done. And guess what? Kerry actually won the 13660 respondents! He had 7064 (51.7%), Bush 6414 (47.0%), Other 182 (1.3%).

Someday, probably in 2022, we’ll get to see the unadjusted recall exit poll numbers. In the meantime, here’s the 2004 National Exit Poll Timeline that was “not meant for public viewing”.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

And let’s not forget the 2000 selection. The media told us the election was close in Florida and nationwide. But they did not tell us that Gore won the
1) National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)by 48.5%-46.3%, a 2.7 million margin.
2) 50 state exit polls (58,000 respondents)by 50.8%-45.5%, a 6 million margin.
3) Florida exit poll (1,816 respondents)by 53.4%-43.6%. a 500,000 vote margin.

The media myth is that
1) Gore won the national popular vote by 540,000 votes.
2) Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

All we know is that the Florida recount was halted by the Supreme Court.

Gore won exit polls in the following states – but lost all in the official vote.
He needed just ONE to win the election.
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA 

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/unadjusted-state-exit-polls-indicate-that-al-gore-won-a-mini-landslide-in-2000/

- Republican recorded presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 226 (82.4%) of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. One would normally expect approximately 137 (50%). The probability is virtually ZERO.

- The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 126 (46%) of the 274 polls. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 (5%). The probability is ZERO.

- 123 of the 126 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (the “red shift”). Just 3 moved in favor of the Democrat (” the blue shift”). There is a ZERO probability that this one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

- The Republicans won the recorded vote in 55 states in which the Democrats won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost the recorded vote in just two states (Iowa and Minnesota in 2000) in which they won the exit poll. If the elections were fair, the number of vote flips would be nearly equal. The probability of this disparity is virtually ZERO.

Calculating the probabilties

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Democrats in the exit polls to the Republicans in the recorded vote is given by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P= 1.13E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat.

Given the relationship between the exit poll, margin of error and corresponding win probability, we compare the 274 state exit polls to the corresponding recorded votes. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 226 (82.4%) of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is 3.7E-31 or 1 in 2.7 million trillion trillion.

The MoE was exceeded in 123 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 3 for the Democrat. The simple Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability P:
P = 5E-106 = Poisson (123, .025*274, false)
P = 1 in 1.8 billion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.
The probability is ZERO. There are 106 places to the right of the decimal!
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000005

Listen to Stephen Spoonamore – a Republican computer security expert:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAyEfovA404&feature=bf_prev&list=PL7EA9A7F25C837D23

 

Wisconsin Recall: The adjusted Final Exit Poll was forced to match an unlikely recorded vote

Richard Charnin
June 6, 2012
Updated: July 11

The media and the exit pollsters have done it again.

Before the first votes were posted, the media reported that based on the exit polls, the election was “too close to call”. But Walker won by 53.2-46.3%, a 173,000 vote margin. Assuming “too close to call” meant that the exit poll indicated a 50/50 split, then there was a significant 7% discrepancy between the unadjusted exit poll and the recorded vote. I believe that Barrett was actually leading the exit polls. Of course, we will never know until the unadjusted exit polls are released. In any case, what caused the unknown red shift?

According to the Wisconsin True Vote Model , Barrett was a likely 54-46% winner. Barrett should have won easily – assuming the caveat of a fair election. But the election was very likely stolen.

Forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

The Final Wisconsin adjusted exit poll (2547 respondents) indicated that Walker had 53.0% (see the NY Times link below). The 0.2% difference between the Final and the recorded vote was the result of the standard policy of forcing the unadjusted poll to match the vote.

The pollsters claim that the exit poll had a 4.0% margin of error. But they can’t mean the final adjusted poll because it is always forced to match the recorded vote within 0.5%.

Why did the media not provide the actual unadjusted exit poll demographics? Was it because they knew that they would have to adjust all the crosstabs to match a rigged recorded vote – and did not want the public to view the “adjustments”?

The Fraud Factor

And as is always the case, there was no mention of the fraud factor in the mainstream media. There never is. To the exit pollsters and the media, there is no such thing as election fraud.

The GOP employs overt voter disenfranchisement in plain sight by robocalling voters with false information and having election workers discourage voters from using paper ballots and vote on unverifiable touchscreen DREs. But we are supposed to believe that right-wing voting machine manufacturers would not stoop so low as to write malicious code to covertly flip votes in cyberspace.

In 2010, Walker “won” by 52.2-46.6%, supposedly due to low-Democratic turnout.
Was the election a prologue of the recall?

In the recall, Democrats turned out in droves, they wanted Walker gone. There was no way that the unpopular Governor would match, much less exceed, his 2010 vote – if the votes were counted as cast. But that is a quaint notion considering the overwhelming statistical evidence of systemic election fraud since 1988.

Implausible 2008 returning voters and 2012 vote shares

Obama had a 56.2% recorded share in Wisconsin and 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll (2.4% margin of error). Assuming Obama had a 60% True Vote share, then to match the recall vote, Walker needed the following:
1) 81% of McCain and 71% of Obama voters turned out.
2) He needed to win 25% of Obama and 95% of McCain voters.
3) He needed 46% of new voters who did not vote in 2010. The 2012 exit poll indicates he had 45% and that new voters comprised 13% of the total vote.

In order to win by his recorded vote, Walker needed a 10% advantage in returning 2008 voters and a 20% advantage in net defections. That is highly implausible.

Exit poll oddities

1) A full 5% of voters were not white or black. But their vote is n/a.
2) Philosophy: 13% of liberals voted for Walker?
3) Party ID: 34% Democrat/ 35% Republican in a progressive state?
4) Labor: Just 62% voted for Barrett?
5) Obama preferred by 51-44%, yet Barrett lost the recall by 53.2-46.3%?
6) Barrett only got 81% of would-be Obama voters?
7)Turnout:47% of recall were returning Walker 2010 and 34% Barrett? That’s a 13% difference. In 2010 Walker “won” by 52.2-46.6%.
8) Urban vote: Barrett had just 62% in big cities?

Margin of error?

The pollsters indicate that there were 2547 exit poll respondents and that the margin of error (MoE) was +/-4%. Presumably, this includes a 30% cluster factor.

The adjusted poll had a zero MoE since it was forced to match the recorded vote. What is the point of mentioning a MoE if the exit poll is adjusted to match the recorded vote?

The pollsters must be referring to the unadjusted exit poll, but of course that is not for public viewing. In any case, the 4.0% MoE is too high, considering the number of respondents (n). The simple formula is: MoE =.98/sqrt(n)

Adding a 30% cluster factor, the theoretical MoE is 2.6%= 1.3*.98/sqrt(2547).
So how did the pollsters come up with the 4.0% MoE?

If we had unadjusted exit poll data, the margin of error would be applied to determine the interval where the vote share would be expected to fall 95% of the time. That’s why unadjusted exit polls are necessary. The standard practice of forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote implicitly assumes zero fraud, i.e. the recorded vote is identical to the True Vote. It never is.

The Ultimate Smoking Gun: Unadjusted state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)

July 11 Update: There are 274 state exit polls listed in the Roper archive for 1988-2008 (only 24 are listed for 1988). I originally used the True Vote Model to estimate the 26 missing 1988 exit polls. Dr. Bob Fitrakis, writing in The Free Press, referred to the earlier probability calculations in an excellent article: Wisconsin: None Dare Call it Vote Rigging

Here are the revised numbers, based on 274 exit polls:

- Republican recorded presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 (85%) of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. One would normally expect approximately 137 (50%). The probability is virtually ZERO.

- The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 (49%) of the 274 polls. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 (5%). The probability is ZERO.

- 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (the “red shift”). Just 3 moved in favor of the Democrat (” the blue shift”). There is a ZERO probability that this one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

- The Republicans won the recorded vote in 55 states in which the Democrats won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost the recorded vote in just two states (Iowa and Minnesota in 2000) in which they won the exit poll. If the elections were fair, the number of vote flips would be nearly equal. The probability of this disparity is virtually ZERO.

Calculating the probabilties

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Democrats in the exit polls to the Republicans in the recorded vote is given by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P= 1.13E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat.

Given the relationship between the exit poll, margin of error and corresponding win probability, we compare the 274 state exit polls to the corresponding recorded votes. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is 9E-35 or 1 in 100 billion trillion trillion.

The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 4 for the Democrat. The simple Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability P:
P = 3.74E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 00000374

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff
1988 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232. 135. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8 Exact match to the Nat Exit Poll

Note: 274 exit polls from 1988-2008
(24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

The conventional wisdom is very conventional – and very misleading:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/wisconsin-recall-vote_n_1572662.html

The NY Times Election site has the FINAL, adjusted exit poll crosstabs.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

 
 
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