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Monthly Archives: July 2012

The Walker Recall Municipal Database: A True Vote Model

Walker Recall Municipality Database: A True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
7/24/2012
Updated: Oct.27,2013

The Recall True Vote Model is designed to be a data reference and forensic tool to uncover locations where fraud was likely. It contains voting data on a county, municipality and ward-by-ward basis.

The analysis shows that the election was very likely stolen. In order to achieve his 171,000 vote margin (53.1-46.3%) Walker’s required shares of returning Obama voters in many municipalities were implausible. The True Vote Model indicates that Barrett had a 53-54% True Vote share (2-party) and won the election by nearly 200,000 votes.

The model produces the following for 72 counties, nearly 1900 municipalities and over 3000 Wards/Units:
1) Recorded votes and True Vote estimates
2) Walker’s share of returning Obama voters required to match the recorded vote
3) Red-shift differential between the True Vote and recorded vote
4) Voter turnout as a percent of living 2008 voters
5) Recorded and True Vote Margin

The ‘Input’ sheet contains the True Vote model for analyzing the state, a county or municipality.

Default Assumptions
Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is calculated automatically as an incremental partisanship adjustment to his assumed 90% total Wisconsin share.

For example, in Dane County, Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is adjusted from 90% to 95%. In Waukesha, it is adjusted to 84%.

The default assumption that Barrett won 5% of returning McCain voters is conservative. According to the WI 2010 Exit Poll, Barrett had 7%.

Barrett’s share of voters who did not vote in 2008 is set to Obama’s share.

User can now set their own Barrett shares of returning Obama and McCain voters as defaults on the Input sheet (they were originally hard coded as 90% and 5%). In the 2010 Wisconsin Governor exit poll, Barrett had just 83% of Obama voters. I believe his actual share was better than that. He also had 7% of McCain voters. If Barrett’s share of McCain voters in the recall was 7%, Walker’s required share of returning Obama voters increases from 22% to 24%.

Each of the defaults can be overridden.

Sensitivity Analysis
The tables save the time and effort of asking “what-if” vote share and turnout assumptions change to calculate total vote shares and margins.

Consider these scenarios based on the following assumptions:
1-Equal 79% turnout of Obama and McCain voters
2-New voters are 11% of total 2012 electorate
3-Barrett wins 57% of New voters

Worst Case
Barrett has 87% of returning Obama voters and 4% of McCain voters
He has 52% and wins by 100,000 votes

Most Likely Base Case
Barrett has 90% of returning Obama voters and 7% of McCain voters
He has 54.7% and wins by 232,000 votes

Best Case
Barrett has 93% of returning Obama voters and 10% of McCain voters
He has 57.3% and wins by 366,000 votes

The “Muni” database worksheet is protected from user data entry.
The built-in assumptions:
– Barrett’s default share of Obama voters is 90%, as per the “input” sheet.
– His share of McCain voters is fixed at 7%.
– There is no breakout of new voters.

These are the steps in using the model to analyze a given municipality:
1. Scroll “Muni” to locate the county
2. Check the row number of the Municipality
3. Enter the row number in the ‘Input’ sheet

These articles are from Wisconsin blogger Dennis Kern:

http://freewisconsinblog.com/?p=20860

http://myplayfulself.com/wordpress/archives/12818

Earlier posts on the Walker Recall:
July 11: True Vote Model: Implausible Walker Vote Shares Required to match the vote.
June 9: Exit Pollsters: MO Never Changes
June 6: Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Recorded vote
May 24: Is the Past Prologue?
May 3: True Vote Model Analysis

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Winnebago County Cumulative Vote Shares

 

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The Walker Recall True Vote Model: Implausible Vote Shares Required to Match the Vote

The Walker Recall True Vote Model: Implausible Vote Shares Required to Match the Vote

Richard Charnin

July 11, 2012

This analysis uses the Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model (TVM) to calculate Walker’s share of Obama returning voters that were required to match the state/county recorded vote. It is further evidence that Walker’s recorded margin was implausible and that Barrett very likely won the election.

Walker won in 2010 by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. His margin improved in 2012: he won by 171,105 votes and had a 53.1% share.

This worksheet provides a comparative analysis of the 2010 and 2012 elections.

In the recall, Walker’s biggest vote margins (in thousands) were in these counties: Waukesha (96), Washington (36), Brown (21), Ozaukee (20) and Outagamie (18). His biggest margin increases were in Taylor, Trempealeau, Price, Outagamie and Clark. The biggest vote gains were in Waukesha, Milwaukee, Outagamie, Brown and Dane.

In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. But he had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. Although the exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote, we will be conservative and use the recorded vote in this analysis.

It is important to note the sensitivity analysis tables in the TVM. They display vote shares and margins over a range of turnout and vote share assumptions around the base case.

The following DEFAULT assumptions can be overidden on the INPUT sheet:
1) Equal turnout rates for returning Obama and McCain voters.
2) Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is estimated as an increment applied to his base case 90% Wisconsin share.
3) Shares of New voters are set to the estimated 2008 vote shares.
4) Barrett won 5% of returning McCain voters

The model calculates Walker’s share of Obama returning voters that were required to match the state/county recorded vote.
The “2010-2012″ worksheet provides a comparative analysis of the 2010 and 2012 elections

KEY STATE AND COUNTY RESULTS
The very conservative assumption is that Obama’s recorded 56.2% share was his True share. But he did better than that. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, therefore Barrett probably did better than his True Vote shown below.

Wisconsin
Obama had 56.2%.
Barrett had 47.1% and lost by 171,000 votes.
Walker needed 23% of returning Obama voters.
Barrett True Vote: 53.6%, 193k margin.

Waukesha
Obama had 36.4%.
Walker had 72.4% and won by 96,000 votes.
Walker True Vote: 65%, a 65k vote margin.
Walker needed 36% of returning Obama voters.

Milwaukee
Obama had 67.3%.
Barrett had 63.2% and won by 107,000 votes.
Barrett True Vote: 65%, 122k margin.
Walker needed 10% of returning Obama voters.

Dane
Obama had 72.8%.
Barrett had 69.1% and won by 99k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 71%, 110k margin.
Walker needed 8% of returning Obama voters.

Outagamie
Obama had 54.9%.
Barrett had 36.1% and lost by 48k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 52% and won by 4,000 votes.
Walker needed 38% of returning Obama voters.

Racine
Obama had 53.1%.
Barrett had 46.7% and lost by 5k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 50.3% and won by 1,000 votes
Walker needed 18% of returning Obama voters.

Rock
Obama had 63.8%.
Barrett had 55.7% and lost by 8k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 61% and won by 15,000 votes.
Walker needed 17% of returning Obama voters.

The Walker Recall County/Ward Database
This spreadsheet database was created to facilitate analysis. A data filter function let’s one quickly view Ward totals for a given county. In addition, vote shares are calculated and automatically sorted.

The data is available as an Excel spreadsheet from Wisconsin GAB. The file consists of 3500 Ward vote records. By itself, it is not very useful since the viewer must scroll through all the records to get the desired county – a time-consuming process.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

 
 
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