The Election Fraud Quiz
After completing the quiz link to the Election Fraud Quiz Spreadsheet . Click the ‘Answers’ tab. Enter the number of questions you answered correctly on the ‘Scores’ sheet. Only you know your test score. Do not enter name, code or initials, just the number of correct answers.
Election Fraud: An Introduction Exit Poll Probability Analysis
1) Approximately how many ballots were uncounted in the 1988-2008 presidential elections?
a) 10 million, b) 30 million, c) 40 million
2) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 126 of 274 state exit polls. Of the 126, 123 red-shifted to the Republican. What is the probability that 123 of 274 exit polls would exceed the margin of error and shift to the Republican in the vote?
a) 1 in 100 million, b) 1 in 100 trillion, c) 1 in 1 billion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion
3) The 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) was adjusted to match the recorded vote won by Bush, 50.7-48.3%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates the actual, pristine survey response. It showed that Kerry won by
a) 50-49%, b) 51.1-47.6%, c) 51.7-47.0%
4) In 2000, Bush had 50.5 million votes. The final adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicates that 52.6 million (43%) of the 122.3 million who voted were returning Bush 2000 voters. This is
a) plausible, b) implausible, c) impossible
5) In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000. According to the Census, approximately 6 million votes were uncounted. If the votes were counted, a reasonable estimate of Gore’s True Vote margin is
a) 1 million, b) 2 million, c) 4 million
6) In 1988, Bush beat Dukakis by 48.9-41.8 million. How many Bush 1988 voters did the 1992 National Exit Poll indicate returned in 1992?
a) 47 million, b) 45 million, c) 55 million
7) In 2004, Bush won Florida by 52.1-47.1%. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents; 2.4% margin of error) by 50.8-48.0%. The probability of the 7.8% discrepancy is approximately
a) 1 in 500, b) 1 in 1500, c) 1 in 3000
8) In 2000, Al Gore had 51.0 million recorded votes; Bush had 50.5 million. Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died prior to the 2004 election. Assume that 47 of 48 million living Bush 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004. The 2004 National Exit Poll indicates that returning Bush voters comprised 43% (52.6 million) of the total 122.3 million recorded, inflating returning Bush voters by
a) 2 million, b) 4.6 million, c) 5.6 million
9) The 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60.3 million (46%) of the 131.4 million who voted were returning Bush 2004 voters and 48.6 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. Bush had 62.0 million recorded votes in 2004. The 11.7 million difference between returning Bush and Kerry voters is
a) plausible, b) implausible, c) impossible
10) In 2008, Obama had 52% of 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. What was his share of the 10 million late votes recorded after Election Day?
a) 52%, b) 54%, c) 59%
11) According to the 2004 Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), 86 of 88 reported touch screen vote-switching incidents were from Kerry to Bush. What are the odds of this occurrence assuming a random sample of independent, unbiased machines?
a) 1 in 1,112,000 b) 1 in 123,000,000, c) 1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
12) In the 2006 midterms, the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (52-46% in favor of the Democrats). The 120 pre-election Generic poll trend line projected a 56.4% Democratic share. What was the their unadjusted National Exit Poll share?
a) 52.3%, b) 54.1%, c) 56.4%
13) The Census indicated that 110.8 million votes were cast in 2000 and 125.7 million in 2004. Given a) the 1.25% annual voter mortality rate, b) a 98% turnout of living 2000 voters in 2004, and c) 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares, what was the True Vote in millions?
a) Kerry by 67-57, b) Kerry by 63-61, c) Bush by 63-61
14) In the 1988-2008 presidential state elections, the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. They won the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 49-45%, b) 52-42%, c) 50-44%
15) The majority of late undecided voters almost always break for the challenger. Bush had a 48% approval rating in 2004. The final 2004 national pre-election polls indicated a 47% tie with 5% undecided. Since Kerry was the challenger, what was the most likely projection?
a) Kerry by 52-47%, b) Kerry by 51-48%, c) too close to call
16) In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive. This indicates that
a) something is wrong with the poll
b) something is wrong with the vote
c) something is wrong with both the poll and the vote
d) no conclusion can be drawn
17) Kerry had 54.1% in the Ohio exit poll. The margin of error was 2.8%. The probability that Kerry had at least 51.3% of the vote is
a) 90%, b) 95%, c) 97.5%
18) In the 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008, 226 red-shifted to the GOP. How many would normally be expected?
a) 180, b) 137, c) 145
19) Given a 95% confidence level in each of the 274 exit polls, how many would be expected to exceed the margin of error?
a) 14, b) 34, c) 44
20) In order to calculate the True Vote, the analyst needs to estimate
a) the number of votes cast in the previous and current election
b) turnout rates of previous election living voters
c) candidate shares of new and returning voters
d) all of the above
21) In the 2012 election, Obama had 50.3% of 117.4 million votes recorded on Election Day. There were 11.7 million late votes. What was Obama’s late vote share?
a) 52%, b) 55%, c) 58%
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.
2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released