JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify
July 18, 2013
JFK Blog Post Index: Richard Charnin JFK Blog Posts
This post will describe the methodology used to calculate mortality rates and associated probabilities of the deaths of witnesses who testified or were sought in four JFK-related investigations. The method represents a paradigm shift in analyzing witness deaths and is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt. The only relevant variables needed for calculating probabilities are the number (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died unnaturally, the time period (T), and the unnatural mortality rate (R).
Note: I posted this on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His only response is that I am afraid to have this analysis peer-reviewed. In effect, he has given up the ghost since he himself cannot refute it. https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60
The irrefutable probabilities of witness deaths confirms what we already know and closes the book on academic, media and entertainment shills who, despite 50 years of overwhelming evidence – eyewitness, forensic, medical, photographic, ballistic, acoustic, etc. – combined with the recorded death-bed confessions of participants in the conspiracy, continue to perpetuate the insane Magic Bullet Theory and that Oswald lied when he said he was “just a patsy”.
Warren Commission (WC) apologists and “coincidence” theorists (CTs) have offered tortured explanations to refute the relevance of witness deaths by challenging the witness connection to the assassination and/or cause of death. But their explanations are an exercise in futility; they miss the forest for the trees. Focusing on any particular death is an irrelevant distraction. First, they are debunked by the known number of witnesses who testified or were sought to testify in the four investigations. Second, the fact they were sought is obvious proof that they were relevant. Coincidence theorists (CTs) and WC apologists avoid and/or are ignorant of the mathematical analysis required for calculating the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths occurring in a known universe of witnesses.
The witness death controversy was ignited by the 1973 film Executive Action in which it was disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. If the calculation was valid, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy to eliminate witnesses and would destroy the Warren Commission’s conclusion that there was no conspiracy.
The HSCA designated statistician dismissed the calculation as invalid, claiming it was impossible to determine a known universe of witnesses. But this conclusion is easily debunked by the known universe of witnesses called to testify at the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate Intelligence hearings and House Select Committee (HSCA). The number of witnesses sought is obviously a known quantity. And the Warren Commission apologists are debunked: they were material and connected to the assassination, otherwise they would never have been called to testify in the first place.
The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm
Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/
The Probability Formula
The only relevant factors are the number of witnesses (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died, the time period (T) and the appropriate mortality rate (R). Given these factors, we have all the information we need to calculate E, the expected number of deaths: E = N * T * R. Given the expected number, the Poisson formula calculates the probability of n deaths:
P(n) = E^n * exp(-E) / n!
P = Poisson (n, E, false) is the probability function for exactly n deaths.
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true) is the probability function for at least n deaths.
Using the annual national homicide rate (0.000084), we would expect zero or one homicide among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-1978. But there were at least 11 homicides. The probability of at least 11 homicides is:
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true)
P = 1 – Poisson (10, 0.70, true)
P = 2.54E-10 = 1 in 4 billion
Approximately 1100 material witnesses were sought to testify in four JFK-related investigations from 1964-78: 552 testified at the Warren Commission. The others were sought to testify at the Garrison/Shaw Trial, Senate Intelligence Hearings and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).
At least 62 of the 1100 died under suspicious circumstances and are included in the JFK Calc 118 witness database. It is obvious that the 30 WC witnesses who died unnaturally and suspiciously were relevant; they all testified. The vast majority of the other 32 witnesses who were sought in the three investigations that followed died suspiciously shortly before they could testify.
Of the 62 deaths, 38 were unnatural (27 homicides, 8 accidents, 3 suicides). Thee other 24 died from suspiciously timed heart attacks, illnesses and natural causes.
For example, David Ferrie supposedly committed suicide a few days before he was scheduled to testify before a grand jury at the Clay Shaw trial in 1967. Sam Giancana was murdered before he had a chance to testify at the Church Senate hearings in 1975. George de Morenschildt supposedly shot himself the day he was notified of his interview by the HSCA. Seven (7) top FBI officials died within a six month period in 1977 prior to their scheduled testimony at the HSCA. And there were many more.
1400 Material Witnesses: 83 Unnatural Deaths
Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination is a reference text of 1400+ suspects, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators. The JFK Calc spreadsheet includes 118 material witnesses of whom 83 died unnaturally (homicide, accident, suicide,unknown). The 35 “natural” deaths include 22 suspicious (induced?) heart attacks. Of the 118 in the database, 95 are listed in “Who’s Who”.
Only 17 unnatural deaths would normally be expected among 1400 material witnesses in the 15 year period – but there were at least 82. The probability is ZERO.
Nearly half of the unnatural deaths occurred during two major investigations in just over two years: 16 in 1964 (Warren Commission)and 22 in 1977-78 (HSCA). Timing is everything.
Unweighted and Weighted Mortality Rates
Nationally, accidents comprised 66% of unnatural deaths compared to 11% for homicides. But 49 of 83 (59%) JFK witness unnatural deaths were homicides; therefore we need to weight the JFK-witness rates by cause of death to calculate probabilities. In fact, if the analysis was restricted to homicides the mathematical proof would be simpler and even more powerful.
The weighted rate is the sum-product of the individual unnatural rates and corresponding deaths:
R = 0.000232 = (49*0.0000825 + 7*0.000130 + 24*0.000594 + 3* 0.00001)/83