JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Oct.14, 2013
Updated:Aug.29, 2015

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Probability Tables

This post is updated for the latest data, analysis and graphics from the JFK Calc Spreadsheet/database of Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths. Mortality rates used for expected deaths and probabilities are from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html.

The Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events based on the difference between the actual and statistically expected number.

Assuming that 1400+ material witnesses were connected to the assassination, then based on annual mortality rates for major causes of death, 214 deaths were expected in the 1964-78 period (196 natural and 18 unnatural). Among the 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown). The probability is:
P = E-61 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).

Forty-four (44) deaths were officially ruled natural (heart attacks, cancers, other). But many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were likely homicides. Therefore, unnatural deaths were adjusted to 96 (85 homicides) based on cause of death mortality. Given N=1400 witnesses, T=15 years, n=96 unnatural deaths, R=0.000127 (JFK-weighted mortality), the expected number of unnatural deaths is:
E = 2.66 = 1400*15*0.000127
The probability: P = Poisson (96, 2.66, false) = 3.26E-111

To put the magnitude of the probabilities in context, there are approximately 10^24 (one trillion trillion) stars in the universe. The virtual ZERO probability of guessing the name of a star is much higher than the probability that there was not a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. It is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

These books are highly recommended for detailed information on JFK witnesses:
Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson (1400+ names, 97 in JFK Calc)
Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (50 suspicious deaths, all in JFK Calc)
Crossfire by Jim Marrs (103 “convenient” deaths, virtually all in JFK Calc)
They Killed Our President by Jesse Ventura, Richard Russell and David Wayne (63 reasons)

John Simkin JFK Index
Seventy (70) of the 656 names in the Index are included among 126 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Officially 44 deaths were ruled unnatural, including 22 homicides. Only 8 unnatural deaths would be expected based on historical mortality rates. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=81

The probability of 44 unnatural deaths among the 656 from 1964-78 is
P= E-41 (one in one trillion trillion trillion).

The probability of 22 homicides given the 0.000084 national homicide rate is P = 6.4E-24 (one in a 150 billion trillion). If we triple the rate (over 50 witnesses were from the Dallas area), the probability is P= 4.3E-14 (one in 23 trillion).

Statistical expectations of the 44 officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers indicate that approximately 26 were HOMICIDES. Therefore, there were approximately 48 homicides among the 70 suspicious deaths. The probability of 48 homicides is less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!

This is an interesting article on the coverup: https://jaylipp.fatcow.com/JFK/coverupWitness.html

Expected Deaths (1964-78)
1400 material witnesses
(based on annual mortality rates)
Natural. 196 14.02%
Unnatural 18 1.25%
Total… 214 15.28%

JFK Calc: 122 witness deaths (expected vs. actual)
Cause of Death…(Exp)ected (Off)icial (Est)imated (Rate: 1964-78 avg. mortality)
Cause..........Exp Off Est (Rate)
UNNATURAL
Homicide...... 1.77 34 85 (0.000084)
Accident..... 12.47 24 08 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 2.73 16 04 (0.000130)
Unknown........0.22 04 04 (0.000010)
Total..........17.2 78 101 (0.000818)

NATURAL
Cardiac…….. 8.7 25 10 (0.004913)
Cancer……… 3.5 05 04 (0.001991)
Other………. 4.6 14 07 (0.002480)
Total……….16.8 44 21 (0.009375)

Expected Deaths
…. Begin Card Canc Vasc Other Acc Suic Homic Alive
1964 1,400 7.61 2.71 2.39 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,385
1965 1,385 7.60 2.74 2.37 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,370
1966 1,370 7.58 2.75 2.36 1.25 0.92 0.18 0.08 1,355
1967 1,355 7.35 2.76 2.33 1.24 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,340
1968 1,340 7.43 2.78 2.32 1.26 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,325
1969 1,325 7.24 2.78 2.30 1.27 0.92 0.18 0.10 1,310
1970 1,310 6.90 2.78 2.27 1.27 0.91 0.18 0.10 1,296
1971 1,296 6.90 2.79 2.25 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.10 1,281
1972 1,281 6.86 2.80 2.23 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.11 1,267
1973 1,267 6.75 2.80 2.21 1.25 0.89 0.18 0.11 1,253
1974 1,253 6.42 2.82 2.19 1.24 0.88 0.18 0.11 1,239
1975 1,239 6.04 2.80 2.15 1.23 0.87 0.18 0.12 1,225
1976 1,225 5.98 2.84 2.12 1.22 0.85 0.18 0.12 1,212
1977 1,212 5.79 2.85 2.08 1.21 0.84 0.18 0.12 1,199
1978 1,199 5.74 2.87 2.04 1.20 0.83 0.18 0.12 1,186

Expected ..102.. 42.. 34.. 19.. 13… 3… 2.. 214
Share……7.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 15.3%

1- Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

2. 67 of 122 witnesses in JFK Calc were sought in four investigations.

3. Unnatural deaths far exceeded expected based on national mortality rates.

4. The probability of 33 unnatural deaths (there were 78 official) among 1400 witnesses is ZERO.

5. Sensitivity analysis probabilities:10-50 unnatural deaths; 1500-2500 witnesses.

6. Even assuming 25,000 FBI interviews, the probability of at least 38 homicides in 1964-66 is E-23. Only 4-5 would normally be expected.

7. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths (17 homicides) of 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-78. Only 7 would normally be expected.

8. There were at least 42 homicides of 1100 witnesses sought in 4 investigations. Only one was expected.

9. The probability of 15 unnatural deaths in 7 years and 30 deaths in 15 years is ZERO.

10. Given 1400 JFK-related witnesses and average 1964-78 U.S. unnatural mortality rates, the ZERO probability threshold is 30 deaths. The unweighted probability of 96 unnatural deaths is E-39. The JFK-weighted probability is E-111.

11. Estimated Expected (214) and Actual (291) deaths of 1400 JFK-related individuals (1964-78) ; 122 listed in JFK Calc

12. About 51 of the 122 deaths were in Dallas which has a higher mortality rate than the national average. I tripled the national homicide rate from 0.000084 to 0.000253. The probability P of 34 official homicides using the adjusted Dallas rate is P = 7.60e-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion.

Sample Probabilities

LONDON TIMES ACTUARY (1964-1966)
At least 18 deaths (13 unnatural); assume 459 witnesses
Normally, 2 unnatural deaths would be expected.
Using the 0.000207 weighted rate, the probability is ZERO.
P = E-17 = POISSON (13, .29, false)
P = 1 in 100,000 trillion

WARREN COMMISSION- 552 witnesses
At least 21 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses
Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78.
Using the 0.000135 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 21 unnatural deaths is ZERO:
P = E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.12, false)
P = 1 in 15 million trillion

Probability of 18 homicides is ZERO:
P = E-19 = POISSON(18, 0.53, false)
P = 1 in 8 million trillion

1400 MATERIAL WITNESSES (Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination)
1964-66: at least 45 unnatural deaths .
Normally, 3 would be expected.
Using the 0.000842 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-33 = POISSON (45, 3.53, false)
P = 1 in 10 million trillion trillion

1964-78: at least 96 estimated unnatural deaths
Normally, 17 would be expected.
Using the 0.000818 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-39 = POISSON (96, 17.18, false)
P = 1 in 1000 trillion trillion trillion
Using the JFK-weighted rate (0.000127):
P = E-111 = POISSON (96, 2.66, false)

1964-78: at least 80 estimated homicides.
Normally, 2 would be expected.
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-100 = POISSON (80, 1.77, false)

Four Investigations: 1100+ witnesses called or sought to testify
49 unnatural deaths (14 expected).
Using the 0.000106 unnatural weighted rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-51 = POISSON (49, 1.81, false)

1964-78: 25,000 FBI Interviews
At least 80 homicides (32 expected)
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-23 = POISSON (80, 31.62, false)
P= 1 in 2 trillion

*******************************************************

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).
Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N……10…… 20…… 30…… 40…… 50…… 60…… 70…… 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132

4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108

“Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

Warren Commission Index
2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65

5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58
6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52

7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43