JFK Witness Database: Cause of Death Statistics
Dec. 19, 2013
Among the 120 witnesses in the JFK Calc spreadsheet/database there were 77 official unnatural deaths, of which 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 3 unknown. The other 43 natural deaths were a combination of heart attacks, sudden cancers and other illnesses. But the official cause of many suspicious unnatural and natural deaths is suspect due to anomalies in timing, circumstance and statistical expectation. Accordingly, JFK Calc has just been updated to a reasonable, conservative estimate of 96 unnatural deaths, of which at least 80 were homicides.
The probabilities of unnatural deaths and homicides were calculated based on average mortality rates for both official and estimated totals. The probabilities for various subset groupings range from one in a trillion (E-12) to E-100.
There are 1400+ JFK-related individuals in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, 95 of whom are included in JFK Calc along with 25 others. The total number of unnatural and suspicious deaths has been categorized for 1964 (year 1), 1964-66 (3 years), and 15 years from (1964-78).
In 1964-78 approximately 214 of the 1400 were expected to die. Of the 214, only 17 unnatural deaths were expected; there were 96. Only 2 homicides were expected; there were at least 80.
Stated another way, there is a virtual ZERO probability of just 10 homicides among 1400 witnesses in a 15 year period. But there were at least 80 homicides. The ZERO probability threshold was reached within a year of the assassination. It is proof beyond any doubt of a conspiracy.
A 1967 memo from CIA headquarters to station chiefs advised:
Such vague accusations as that “more than 10 people have died mysteriously” can always be explained in some rational way: e.g., the individuals concerned have for the most part died of natural causes; the (Warren) Commission staff questioned 418 witnesses – the FBI interviewed far more people, conducting 25,000 interviews and reinterviews – and in such a large group, a certain number of deaths are to be expected.
In 1978, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) report covered just 21 suspicious deaths
Well, it was a lot worse than that.
– Consider the universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses (418 testified in person). Of the 552, 30 died suspiciously, including 18 homicides. Given 552 witnesses, the probability of 10 homicides in 3 years is 2.1E-17 (1 in 40,000 trillion). The probability of 18 homicides in 15 years is an even lower 1.2E-19 (1 in 8 million trillion).
- The memo was written in 1967. Exactly 10 years later, 7 top FBI officials who were due to testify at HSCA died within a SIX month period. Assuming 20 FBI officials were called to testify, the probability is less than ONE in 190 TRILLION given the official causes of death (5 heart attacks and 2 accidents). It is one in 9 TRILLION TRILLION if all 7 officials were murdered.
- Even assuming the highly questionable 25,000 FBI interviews (how many were material?) the probability of 38 homicides in 3 years is E-23 (1 in 10 billion trillion). The probability of 80 homicides in 15 years is E-13 (1 in 2 trillion).
- The London Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination is confirmed assuming 459 witnesses. This is very close to the number who testified at the Warren Commission. But there were at least 45 unnatural deaths in the three years, including 38 homicides, so the true odds are much greater.
- Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations, of whom 63 died suspiciously. Of the 63, 49 deaths were unnatural, including 42 homicides.
- Approximately 500 names are listed in John Simkin’s JFK Index database of important figures, witnesses and possible conspirators. Sixty-five (65) are listed among the 120 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet from 1964-78 (47 of the 65 were HOMICIDES). The probability of 47 homicides is 9E-70. There were officially 23 homicides, but a combination of unnatural mortality expectation and suspicious timings indicates that 24 deaths (7 accidents, 7 suicides and 10 heart attacks and sudden cancers) were most likely homicides. Even assuming 23 official homicides, the probability is 5E-28 (one in 1,000 trillion trillion)!
Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).
Expected Deaths (1964-78)
1400 material witnesses
(based on annual mortality rates)
Natural. 196 14.02%
Unnatural 18 1.25%
Total... 214 15.28%
JFK Calc: 120 witness deaths (expected vs. actual)
Cause of Death, (Exp)ected (Off)icial (JFK)Calc (average 1964-78 mortality rate)
Cause..........Exp Off JFK Rate
Homicide...... 0.15 34 80 (0.000084)
Accident...... 1.00 24 08 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 0.23 16 05 (0.000130)
Unknown........0.02 03 03 (0.000010)
Total...........1.4 77 96 (0.000818)
Cardiac........ 8.7 22 12 (0.004913)
Cancer......... 3.5 06 05 (0.001991)
Other.......... 4.6 14 07 (0.002480)
Total..........16.8 42 24 (0.009375)
ALL DEATHS.....18.2 120 120 (0.010193)
The following suspicious deaths are classified as homicides in JFK Calc.
* indicates individual is not in Who’s Who in JFK Assassination
Most suspicious deaths in caps.
MAC WALLACE* John Crawford Thomas E. Davis JAMES CADIGAN Hiram Ingram
Joseph C. Ayres WILLIAM SULLIVAN J.A. Milteer ROSCOE WHITE WILLIAM WHALEY
JAMES WORRELL DOROTHY KILGALLEN MAURICE GATLIN Leonard Pullin* LEE BOWERS
John D. Sullivan* MARY SHERMAN
DAVID FERRIE LISA HOWARD* GRANT STOCKDALE* William H. Cooper WILLIAM PITZER
ROGER CRAIG GARY UNDERHILL GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Robert Alan Surrey BETTY MACDONALD
Ralph Yates* BILL CHESHER Winston Scott* William Harvey DONALD KAYLOR*
J.M. ENGLISH* REGIS KENNEDY GUY BANISTER TOM HOWARD Billy Lovelady
OTHER (SUDDEN CANCER, etc.)
Edward Voebel FLORENCE SMITH CLIFF CARTER FRANK MARTIN Charles Murret
MANUEL ARTIME Paul Dyer* JACK RUBY