RSS

Author Archives: Richard Charnin

About Richard Charnin

In 1965, I graduated from Queens College (NY) with a BA in Mathematics. I later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University and an MS in Operations Research from the Polytechnic Institute of NY. I started out as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer and then moved to Wall Street as a manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for several major investment banks. I consulted in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In 2004 l began posting weekly "Election Model" projections based on state and national polls. As "TruthIsAll", I have been posting election analysis to determine the True Vote ever since.

Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy

My book Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy is now available.

In the 1973 film Executive Action, the narrator disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated a one in 100,000 trillion probability of eighteen material JFK-related witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. The calculation was mathematical proof of a conspiracy. After all, a professional actuary who has passed difficult mathematical exams would be expected to come up with a good estimate of the odds; that is what he does for a living. But in 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) dismissed the actuary’s odds, stating the odds were invalid because the universe of witnesses was “unknowable”. That was not true. The HSCA never showed the actuary’s methodology. In 1989 Jim Marrs published Crossfire in which he listed 103 convenient JFK-related deaths. Along with Jim Garrison’s On the Trail of the Assassins, Crossfire was the basis for Oliver Stone’s historic JFK.

In 2003, using Marrs’ list, I calculated the probability of at least 15 unnatural witness deaths in the first year, essentially confirming the actuary’s calculation. The HSCA did not consider unnatural deaths which comprised the majority of suspicious deaths; it noted just 21 deaths when there were at least 122 by 1978. Reclaiming Science is based on a statistical analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence.

Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory. They claim that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository but was in front on the first floor watching the motorcade. As a result, the mainstream media has lost all credibility and must be considered complicit in the ongoing 50 year cover-up. Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is a challenge to the media to let real scientific experts present the facts. Let the experts debate the Warren Commission apologists in full public view.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on October 24, 2014 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

Richard Charnin
Oct.6, 2014
Updated: Oct.16,2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

LN: Lone Nutter (Warren Commission apologist)

1. The Badgeman photo was declared authentic by MIT and other photo analysts.
LN: MIT and all the others were wrong. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Badgeman_coloured.jpg

2. Witness testimony that Tippet was killed no later than 1:06 proves that Oswald could not have been the shooter.
LN: All the witnesses at the scene were mistaken. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

3. All Parkland doctors and witnesses said they observed a small throat entrance wound and a massive head exit wound. This proves there were at least two shots from the front and destroys the Single Bullet Theory.
LN: The Parkland doctors were mistaken. They never saw the head wound. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/8804/backofheadorangesizedwo.jpg

4. Jack Ruby said it was a conspiracy and LBJ was involved.
LN: Ruby was lying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zd4r4O0o_Y

5. Parkland Dr. Charles Crenshaw viewed a neck entrance wound and head exit wound.
LN: Crenshaw was mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM

6. The Altgens6 photo was altered to eliminate Oswald in the doorway.
LN: There was no alteration. Lovelady is Doorman. http://www.veteranstoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GrodenAnnot-one-half14.jpg

7. The JFK autopsy photos of the head exit wound were covered.
LN: The following top view was altered to show an exit head wound; the back view is unaltered and does not show an exit wound. http://www.celebritymorgue.com/jfk/jfk-autopsy.html

8. The figure in the Altgens6 photo sitting in front whose face is cut out is Billy Lovelady. The cutout is not an arm. No one holds their arms VERTICALLY OVER the eyes to shade them; if they did, they would not be able to see. We hold our arm(s) HORIZONTALLY ABOVE our eyes to shade them from the sun.
LN: That is not a cutout of Lovelady. It was just a photo processing glitch. http://betshort.com/loveos.gif

9. An FBI official attending the autopsy claimed there was no bullet exit from the back wound.
LN: The FBI official was either lying or mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4

10. Wesley Frazier testified five different times that Lovelady was standing in front of him on the STEPS of the TSBD. If so, Lovelady could not have been Doorman who was standing on the TOP level (first floor).
LN: Frazier was mistaken in all five statements. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

11. A pixelation analysis of Doorman’s shirt by Judyth Baker proves LHO was Doorman.
LN: The analysis is bogus, junk science. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1X2eD2Wl3xSmRHTuE02ntfYkb3ES2Kuo8wl3HHzzAlD8/pub

12. Doorman’s shirt in Altgens6 matched that of Oswald in custody.
LN: it is not the same shirt Oswald was wearing in custody. https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ-FeA_djwkRgNMUeGWcRuJNyXfghtQcvkzVC9bpY3JI8jlhZMn

13. Doug Horne (ARRB) and Dino Bugliosi (world class photo interpreter) proved that the Zapruder film was altered and the chain of custody was broken. The film does not show the JFK Limo stop seen by 33 witnesses.
LN: Horne and Bugliosi are mistaken. The Limo never stopped. The 33 witnesses were all mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGr21FZBVL4

14. The Oswald backyard photos were faked; the face is pasted from the same cutout in each of the four photos.
LN: the fact that there is no change in expression or position is not proof of fakery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSmOS3BGFVo

15. Gerald Ford of the Warren Commission moved the back wound (which never exited) up 5” to make it conform to the Magic Bullet exiting the neck.
LN: Ford wanted to fix the error in the evidence and did nothing wrong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

16. The Single Bullet Theory was a contrived farce because the Warren Commission needed to have two bullets cause seven wounds in JFK and Connally.
LN: Arlen Spector would not just make it up. Gerald Ford moved the back wound up a few inches to indicate the true location of the entrance wound at the base of the neck described by Spector. FBI officials Sibert and O’Neill both lied when they claimed there was no exit from the back wound. http://bullet.my3gb.com/images/4-kennedy-magic-bullet.jpg

17. At least 78 of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 17 were expected statistically. The probability is E-62 (one in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The witnesses were not directly related. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

18. At least 40 of 656 JFK-related witnesses listed in Simkin’s JFK Index died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 8 were expected statistically. The probability is E-37 (one in a trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The only reason the witnesses were included by Simkin is because they died. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

19. At least 51 of 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet/database were located in the Dallas area. The obvious connection is the JFK assassination.
LN: The witnesses were self-selected. It was just a coincidence. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

20. 33 of 59 witnesses said the JFK limo came to a FULL stop. The probability they would all be mistaken is ZERO. This proves that the Zapruder film was altered since it does not show a full stop.
LN: Witness testimony is unreliable. The calculation is invalid. The Zapruder film was not altered. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

 
1 Comment

Posted by on October 6, 2014 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Summary: 2004-2012 Election Forecast; 1968-2012 True Vote Model

Summary: 2004-2012 Election Forecast; 1968-2012 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Dukakis 51.6-47.3%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8% https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=13

1992
Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4% https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=17

1996
Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5% https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=16

2000
Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7% http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/unadjusted-state-exit-polls-indicate-that-al-gore-won-a-mini-landslide-in-2000/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=4

2004
Recorded Vote: Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%, 255 EV
Election Forecast Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

2008
Recorded Vote: Obama 52.9-McCain 45.6%, 365 EV
Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2012
Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV
Election Forecast (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted State Exit polls unavailable (19 states not polled)

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=8

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff
1988 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135... 3.7E-116..... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

 

Tags: , , , , , ,

JFK: the eyewitnesses speak

JFK: the eyewitnesses speak

Richard Charnin
Sept. 10, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Note: number of witnesses shown in parenthesis.

1. Oswald could not have shot Tippit. Tippit was killed at 1:06pm, 0.8 mile from where Oswald was seen at 1:04 (10). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

2. The “double-bang” of two nearly simultaneous shots proves that there had to be more than one shooter (44). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/08/jfk-math-analysis-witness-testimony-of-time-interval-between-shots/ http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/11th_Issue/guns_dp.html

3. The JFK Limo came to a full stop, not shown in the Zapruder film (33). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

4. The clear majority of witnesses said shots came from the Grassy Knoll (90+). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-of-a-grassy-knoll-shooter/ http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jfk-dealey-plaza-witnesses-john-mcadams-strange-list/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

5. Parkland witnesses saw an entrance wound in JFK’s throat (22). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/jfk-reelzs-nonsensicalsmoking-gun-the-parkland-doctors-and-executive-action/

6. Autopsy witnesses saw an exit wound in the right rear of JFK”s head (44). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=69

7. The “Magic Bullet” struck JFK in the back 5.5” below the collar and never exited. This was confirmed by FBI agents at the autopsy (2).
O’Neill: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4
Siebert: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

8. Oswald left the TSBD at approximately 12:40 and entered a Rambler (6). http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2012/10/oswalds-escape-from-tsbd.html

9. Billy Lovelady was on the steps of the TSBD. Doorman (Oswald) was standing on the top level (3). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

10. Carolyn Arnold, a TSBD secretary, saw Oswald on the FIRST floor at 12:25pm. She was not interviewed by the Warren Commission. Oswald told Will Fritz he was out with Bill Shelley in front (the FIRST floor entrance) at 12:30. Oswald was seen by policeman Baker and TSBD manager Truly at 12:31pm holding a coke on the SECOND floor.(3), THIS IS ABSOLUTE PROOF THAT OSWALD COULD NOT HAVE BEEN ON THE 6TH FLOOR AT 12:30. http://22november1963.org.uk/carolyn-arnold-witness-oswald

 
2 Comments

Posted by on September 10, 2014 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

Richard Charnin
Sept.1, 2014
Updated Oct.1, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

An actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to one odds against 18 JFK material witnesses dying in the three year period ending in Feb. 1967. The odds were displayed in the 1972 film “Executive Action”.

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

The calculation has been the source of much controversy. Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. Penn Jones was the first independent researcher to investigate unnatural deaths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=IB5JGfxIxFk&feature=endscreen

The actuary’s odds are matched assuming 454 witnesses, very close to the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission. There were 13 unnatural deaths among the 18 material witnesses. We will ignore the five suspicious natural deaths.

It is important to note that the actuary worked with limited information. There were actually at least 42 unnatural JFK-related deaths in the three years following the assassination. View the JFK Calc spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

There were at least 10 unnatural deaths among the 418 witnesses who testified in person at the Warren Commission in the three years ending Feb. 1967. The probability is:P= 2.4E-15 = 1 in 400 trillion

There were 20 unnatural deaths among the 552 total witnesses in the 15 years from 1964-78. The probability is:P= 6.35E-16 = 1 in 1500 trillion

In 1978, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) investigated the allegation (based on the actuary) that a statistically improbable number of individuals with some direct or peripheral association with the Kennedy assassination died as a result of that assassination, thereby raising the specter of conspiracy.

The HSCA declared that the actuary’s calculation was invalid, claiming that the universe (number of witnesses) was unknowable. Warren Commission defenders (Bugliosi, McAdams, Posner, etc.) have questioned the relevance of witness connections to the assassination. The HSCA made a number of errors in coming to that conclusion, It did not cite the
1. suspicious deaths of anti-Castro, CIA, mafia, Dallas police
2. unnatural witness deaths, the key statistic in the analysis
3. known universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses
4. 500+ called to testify by Garrison, Church and HSCA
5. identity of the actuary
6. methodology used by the actuary
7. 100+ suspicious deaths
8. deaths of Oswald, Ruby, DeMorenschildt, Ferrie, Craig etc.
9. 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period in 1977.

Unnatural Mortality Rates and Expected Deaths
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

In order to calculate the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths in a given group, we must first determine the expected number (E) of unnatural deaths.

E= N*T*R, where N is the size of the witness universe, T the time period under study in years, and R the average unnatural mortality rate.

Let H = the number of homicides, A = accidental deaths, S = suicides.
The actuary’s 13 unnatural deaths consist of:
H=8 homicides, A=3 accidents and S=2 suicides.

The corresponding average mortality rates for the period from 1964-66:
HR= 0.000061, AR= 0.000658, SR = 0.000128
The total unnatural rate (unweighted):
RT = HR+ AR+ SR = 0.000847

The total number ET of expected unnatural deaths:
ET = 1.15 = 454*3*0.000847
Only one unnatural death would be expected! But there were 13.

The weighted average mortality rate R is:
R = (H*HR + A*AR + S*SR)/ (H+A+S)
The average weighted unnatural rate:
R = .000209 = (8*0.000061+ 3*0.000658+ 2*0.000128)/13

The expected number E of unnatural deaths is based on the weighted rate:
E = 0.285 = 454*3*0.000209

The Poisson Probability Function
The Poisson function calculates the probability of 13 unnatural deaths in three years assuming 454 witnesses to match the actuary’s odds.
P = Poisson (13, 0.285, false)
P = 9.83E-18 = 1 in 100,000 trillion

If the 3 accidents and 2 suicides were actually homicides, then applying the 0.000061 average homicide rate, we have 13 homicides among 454 witnesses over three years.
E= 0.083= 454*3*0.000061
P= Poisson (13, 0.083, false)
P = 1.33E-24= 1 in 750 million trillion

Data Source
The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination contains information on 1400+ JFK-related suspects, victims, witnesses,Law Enforcement officials and investigators. Approximately 100 died suspiciously in 1964-78 and are listed in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database.

Crossfire, by Jim Marrs, includes a list of 103 “convenient deaths”. http://www.assassinationresearch.com/v1n2/deaths.html

There are 122 suspicious deaths (78 officially ruled unnatural) listed in the spreadsheet JFK Calc. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

The Simkin JFK Spartacus Education website contains biographies of 656 JFK-related individuals. http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm Approximately 64 died suspiciously and are listed in JFK Calc.

HSCA Testimony
The chief of research of the HSCA, Jacqueline Hess, testified: http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm
Our final conclusion on the issue is that the available evidence does not establish anything about the nature of these deaths which would indicate that the deaths were in some manner, either direct or peripheral, caused by the assassination of President Kennedy or by any aspect of the subsequent investigation.

One, to compute valid actuarial statistics, one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, the number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

This was an incorrect statement. The universe of witnesses could be the four investigations in which at least 67 died suspiciously from 1964-78.

Two, in addition, for each of the individuals identified in the groups I have just listed, we would have to establish age, sex, race, occupation, geographical location, and any other extraordinary factors which have to be taken into consideration in order to compute mortality rates. Again, this was judged to be an impossible job.

Another incorrect statement. Natural mortality rates (heart attack, cancer, etc.) are age adjusted. Unnatural death rates are not age-related.

Three, we would need to determine the number of individuals in these categories who have, in fact, died and the number of individuals who, according to actuarial mortality rates, should have died.We had thus established the impossibility of attempting establish through the application of actuarial principles, any meaningful implications about the existence or absence of a conspiracy. Despite the fact that an inference of conspiracy, as here postulated by the critics, did not exist, we nevertheless decided not to dismiss the cited deaths out of hand, but rather, to look more closely at the nature of certain specific deaths to determine whether or not they could individually be considered mysterious or in some other manner a reflection of some sort of conspiracy.

Impossible to determine an approximate number of JFK-related individuals who died suspiciously? That is a canard. All the HSCA had to do was view the list of those called to testify in four JFK investigations – including the HSCA. It ignored 100+ deaths, including 7 top FBI officials who died suspiciously within 6 months in 1977, De Morenschildt and others who were due to testify at HSCA. Note: Hess noted 23 names, including two key Mafia figures (Sam Giancana and John Roselli). But the two were not included in the detailed report requested by the HSCA interrogator. Strange. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

Mr. EDGAR – Will you provide for the record a detailed listing of the 21 names and the evidence you have found relating to their deaths?
Ms. HESS – Yes. Do you want me to read them for the record?
Mr. EDGAR – It might be helpful.

Ms. HESS – Edward Benavides, Albert Guy Bogard, Hale Boggs, Lee Bowers, Jr., Bill Chesher, Nicholas J. Chetta, David Goldstein, Thomas Hale Howard, William Hunter, Clyde Johnson, Dorothy Kilgallen, Thomas Henry Killam, Jim Koethe, FNU Levens, Nancy Jane Mooney, Teresa Norton, Earlene Roberts, Harold Russell, Marilyn April Walle, a.k.a. Betty McDonald, William W. Whaley, James R. Worrell, Sam Giancana, John Roselli.

Mr. EDGAR – Thank you. I think it very helpful for the record that those names be included. Can you indicate why Mr. DeMohrenschildt’s name was not included?
Ms. HESS – His was one of those which deemed further investigation and became part of a great investigative effort.

Actuary – 18 material witness deaths
M=homicide, A=accident, S=suicide, H=heart attack, O=other
W = testified at WC
Note:* No anti-Castro; CIA; Mafia; Dallas police in HSCA list of 21 deaths

S 6402 BETTY MACDONALD W
M 6403 HANK KILLAM
H 6403 BILL CHESHER
M 6404 BILL HUNTER
M 6405 GARY UNDERHILL * CIA/Life magazine, predicted his death

M 6409 JIM KOETHE
H 6503 TOM HOWARD
M 6507 HAROLD RUSSEL W
A 6512 WILLIAM WHALEY W
H 6601 EARLENE ROBERTS W

S 6602 ALBERT BOGARD W
O 6606 FRANK MARTIN W * Dallas Policeman (sudden cancer)
A 6608 LEE BOWERS W
M 6610 WILLIAM PITZER * Navy autopsy photographer, near retirement
A 6611 JAMES WORRELL W

O 6701 JACK RUBY W * Connected to Dallas PD, mob (sudden cancer)
M 6702 DAVID FERRIE * CIA, knew Oswald
M 6702 ELADIO DEL VALLE * anti-Castro, knew Ferrie

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
2 Comments

Posted by on September 1, 2014 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

JFK: Cover-up by the numbers

JFK: Cover-up by the Numbers

Richard Charnin
Aug.29, 2014
Updated: Sept.7, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Key Statistics in the JFK Cover-up

London Times actuary
0.000 probability (E-17 or 1 in 100,000 trillion) of 18 witness deaths by Feb. 1967
13 unnatural deaths (8 homicides,3 accidents,2 suicides) in London Times actuary’s calculation
454 approximate number of witnesses used by London Times actuary for calculation
552 Warren Commission witnesses (1964-78)

Ballistics
1 shooter according to the Warren Commission
3 shots according to the Warren Commission
4 DPD officials identified a 7.65 Mauser on the 6th floor of the TSBD
6 shots fired based on HSCA acoustic analysis of dictabelt recording

Magic Bullet
2 FBI agents attending autopsy said there was no bullet exit from the back wound
5 Ford raised the back wound 5 inches to accommodate the Single Bullet Theory
7 wounds supposedly caused by the Magic Bullet

Expected Unnatural Deaths from 1964-78 in a group of 1400
Officially ruled:
34 homicides; 2 expected
16 suicides; 3 expected > 13 homicides
24 accidental; 10 expected > 14 homicides
25 heart attacks; 10 expected > 15 homicides
14 other illness; 6 expected > 8 homicides
84 estimated homicides = 34+ 13+ 14+ 15+ 8

Oswald in the Doorway at 12:30
5 TSBD employees testified they were standing in the doorway
6 figures in Altgens6 standing in the doorway

Tippit shooting
10 witnesses saw or heard shots at 1:06PM. The WC said 1:16.
24 MPH required for Oswald to walk 0.8 miles to the scene in two minutes

Wounds
22 Parkland Hospital witnesses said there was an entrance wound in the throat
22 Parkland witnesses said there was an exit wound in the right rear of the head
22 Autopsy witnesses said there was an exit wound in the right rear of the head

Suspicious deaths- groups
7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA in 6 months (1977)
13 JFK-related witnesses predicted they would be murdered
20 Jack Ruby contacts
20 of 500 Dealey Plaza witnesses
21 reported by HSCA statistician (there were at least 80 more)
30 Warren Commission witnesses (1964-78)
51 of 122 occurred in the Dallas area
67 of 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc were sought in 4 investigations

Simkin JFK Index (Spartacus Educational)
22 official suicides
40 official unnatural deaths
64 unnatural and suspicious deaths
656 JFK-related individuals in index

Surveys: Grassy Knoll Source of Shots
0.999999 Probability of Grassy Knoll shooter
35 McAdams (36%)
51 Feldman (61%)
52 Galanor (52%)
85 Adjusted (70%)

0.999999 Probability of JFK Limo FULL STOP (i.e. Zapruder film alteration)
33 of 59 witnesses said the Limo came to a FULL STOP (Palamara)
44 heard a double-bang of nearly simultaneous shots (Mason)

Suspicious Deaths of JFK-related individuals (1964-78)
1400+ JFK-related individuals in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination
0.000 Probability (E-31) of 34 ruled homicides (1 in 6 million trillion trillion)
34 officially ruled homicides
78 officially ruled unnatural deaths
84 estimated homicides based on statistical expectation of other causes
99 estimated unnatural deaths based on expectation of natural causes
122 suspicious deaths listed in JFK Calc

Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on August 29, 2014 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

Richard Charnin
Aug. 23, 2004

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is strange how Warren Commission apologists still can’t get the difference between a random and selected group. They claim that the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses is not a RANDOM group; that it is SELF-SELECTED and therefore a probability calculation of 34 official homicides from the group of 1400 over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is not valid.

The apologists have used the same talking point from their disinformation playbook years after I have explained it a number of times in various forums. To use such a convoluted argument over and over again betrays utter confusion and/or an attempt to discredit the logic of the witness unnatural death analysis.

Yes, it is true, the group of 1400 JFK assassination-related individuals is NOT a random group. AND THAT IS WHY THE ZERO PROBABILITY OF 34 HOMICIDES IN THE GROUP IS VALID. The apologists cannot or refuse to accept the logic of that simple statement of fact.

The 1400+ JFK-related witnesses are listed in Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In the group, there were 34 officially ruled homicides (actually there were quite a few more since many suicides and accidents and heart attacks were statistically proven to be inflated and therefore were actually homicides). But we will stick with the bogus 34 official homicides.

How many accidents, suicides, suspiciously timed heart attacks, and sudden cancers were likely homicides? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/jfk-witness-deaths-how-many-accidents-suicides-and-natural-deaths-were-homicides/

In a RANDOM group of 1400, only two homicides would be expected given the average 0.000084 homicide rate over the 15 year period from 1964-78. But there were 34 homicides in the JFK-RELATED group of 1400!

The key point is that JFK-related witnesses were murdered at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than would be statistically expected in a RANDOM group of 1400.

The only relevant factors in calculating the probability are

1) N, the number of JFK-related witnesses
2) n, the number of official homicides
3) T, the time period in years
4) R, the average homicide rate

That is all we need to calculate the probability of n homicides in the N-group.
We first calculate E, the expected number of homicides.
E = N*T*R = 1.77 = 15*0.000084*1400.

The probability is calculated using the Poisson function:
P=POISSON (34, 1.77, false) = 1.57E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion.

This is not a poll. It is not a correlation analysis. Motivation for any given murder is not a factor. The 34 official murders among 1400 witnesses is all that matters. The 1 in 6 million trillion trillion probability means we have proven a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, find the probability of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is still effectively ZERO assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).

Homicide Probability Sensitivity Analysis

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on August 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 772 other followers