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Author Archives: Richard Charnin

About Richard Charnin

In 1965, I graduated from Queens College (NY) with a BA in Mathematics. I later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University and an MS in Operations Research from the Polytechnic Institute of NY. I started out as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer and then moved to Wall Street as a manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for several major investment banks. I consulted in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In 2004 l began posting weekly "Election Model" projections based on state and national polls. As "TruthIsAll", I have been posting election analysis to determine the True Vote ever since.

Summary: 2004-2012 Election Forecast; 1968-2012 True Vote Model

Summary: 2004-2012 Election Forecast; 1968-2012 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: Dukakis 51.6-47.3%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8%

1992
Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4%

1996
Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%

2000
Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7%

2004
Recorded Vote: Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%, 255 EV
Election Forecast Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

2008
Recorded Vote: Obama 52.9-McCain 45.6%, 365 EV
Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2%
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2012
Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV
Election Forecast (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
31 Unadjusted State Exit polls (19 states not polled) unavailable

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=8

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff
1988 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135... 3.7E-116..... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

 

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JFK: the eyewitnesses speak

JFK: the eyewitnesses speak

Richard Charnin
Sept. 10, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Note: number of witnesses shown in parenthesis.

1. Oswald could not have shot Tippit. Tippit was killed at 1:06pm, 0.8 mile from where Oswald was seen at 1:04 (10). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

2. The “double-bang” of two nearly simultaneous shots proves that there had to be more than one shooter (44). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/08/jfk-math-analysis-witness-testimony-of-time-interval-between-shots/ http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/11th_Issue/guns_dp.html

3. The JFK Limo came to a full stop, not shown in the Zapruder film (33). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

4. The clear majority of witnesses said shots came from the Grassy Knoll (90+). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-of-a-grassy-knoll-shooter/ http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jfk-dealey-plaza-witnesses-john-mcadams-strange-list/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

5. Parkland witnesses saw an entrance wound in JFK’s throat (22). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/jfk-reelzs-nonsensicalsmoking-gun-the-parkland-doctors-and-executive-action/

6. Autopsy witnesses saw an exit wound in the right rear of JFK”s head (44). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=69

7. The “Magic Bullet” struck JFK in the back 5.5” below the collar and never exited. This was confirmed by FBI agents at the autopsy (2).
O’Neill: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4
Siebert: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

8. Oswald left the TSBD at approximately 12:40 and entered a Rambler (6). http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2012/10/oswalds-escape-from-tsbd.html

9. Billy Lovelady was on the steps of the TSBD. Doorman (Oswald) was standing on the top level (3). http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

10. Carolyn Arnold, a TSBD secretary, saw Oswald on the FIRST floor at 12:25pm. She was not interviewed by the Warren Commission. Oswald told Will Fritz he was out with Bill Shelley in front (the FIRST floor entrance) at 12:30. Oswald was seen by policeman Baker and TSBD manager Truly at 12:31pm holding a coke on the SECOND floor.(3), THIS IS ABSOLUTE PROOF THAT OSWALD COULD NOT HAVE BEEN ON THE 6TH FLOOR AT 12:30. http://22november1963.org.uk/carolyn-arnold-witness-oswald

 
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Posted by on September 10, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

Richard Charnin
Sept.1, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

An actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to one odds against 18 JFK material witnesses dying in the three year period ending in Feb. 1967. The odds were displayed in the 1972 film “Executive Action”.

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

The actuary’s odds are matched assuming 454 witnesses, very close to the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission. There were 13 unnatural deaths among the 18 material witnesses. We will ignore the five suspicious natural deaths.

It is important to note that the actuary worked with limited information. There were actually at least 42 unnatural JFK-related deaths in the three years following the assassination. Apparently, the actuary assumed that the witness universe was approximately equal to the 552 Warren Commission witnesses. But we will calculate the probability assuming 13 unnatural deaths among 454 witnesses. View the JFK Calc spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

The calculation has been the source of much controversy. Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. Penn Jones was the first independent researcher to investigate unnatural deaths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=IB5JGfxIxFk&feature=endscreen

There were 10 unnatural deaths among the 418 witnesses who testified in person at the Warren Commission in the three years ending Feb. 1967. The probability is:
P= 2.4E-15 = 1 in 400 trillion

There were 20 unnatural deaths among the 552 total witnesses who testified at the Warren Commission in the 15 years from 1964-78. The probability is:
P= 6.35E-16 = 1 in 1500 trillion

In 1978, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) investigated the allegation that a statistically improbable number of individuals with some direct or peripheral association with the Kennedy assassination died as a result of that assassination, thereby raising the specter of conspiracy. But the HSCA ignored suspicious deaths of anti-Castro; CIA; mafia; Dallas police and focused on 21 civilian witnesses in its report.

The HSCA declared that the actuary’s calculation was invalid, claiming that the universe (number of witnesses) was unknowable. Warren Commission defenders (Bugliosi, McAdams, Posner, etc.) have questioned the relevance of witness connections to the assassination. The HSCA made a number of errors in coming to that conclusion:
1. It did not mention unnatural witness deaths – the key statistic in the analysis.
2. It did not mention the known universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses
3. It did not mention 500+ called to testify by Garrison, Church and HSCA.
4. It did not specify the identity of the actuary.
5. It did not specify the methodology used by the actuary.
6. It did not include 100+ suspicious deaths; but mentioned only 21.
7. It did not include mafia/govt/cia Oswald, Ruby, de Morenschildt, Ferrie, etc.
8. It did not mention that 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period in 1977.

Unnatural Mortality Rates and Expected Deaths
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

In order to calculate the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths in a given group, we must first determine the expected number (E) of unnatural deaths.

E= N*T*R, where N is the size of the witness universe, T the time period under study in years, and R the average unnatural mortality rate.

Let H = the number of homicides, A = accidental deaths, S = suicides.
The actuary’s 13 unnatural deaths consist of:
H=8 homicides, A=3 accidents and S=2 suicides.

The corresponding average mortality rates for the period from 1964-66:
HR= 0.000061, AR= 0.000658, SR = 0.000128
The total unnatural rate (unweighted):
RT = HR+ AR+ SR = 0.000847

The total number ET of expected unnatural deaths:
ET = 1.15 = 454*3*0.000847
Only one unnatural death would be expected! But there were 13.

The weighted average mortality rate R is:
R = (H*HR + A*AR + S*SR)/ (H+A+S)
The average weighted unnatural rate:
R = .000209 = (8*0.000061+ 3*0.000658+ 2*0.000128)/13

The expected number E of unnatural deaths is based on the weighted rate:
E = 0.285 = 454*3*0.000209

The Poisson Probability Function
The Poisson function calculates the probability of 13 unnatural deaths in three years assuming 454 witnesses to match the actuary’s odds.
P = Poisson (13, 0.285, false)
P = 9.83E-18 = 1 in 100,000 trillion

If the 3 accidents and 2 suicides were actually homicides, then applying the 0.000061 average homicide rate, we have 13 homicides among 454 witnesses over three years.
E= 0.083= 454*3*0.000061
P= Poisson (13, 0.083, false)
P = 1.33E-24= 1 in 750 million trillion

Data Source
The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination contains information on 1400+ JFK-related suspects, victims, witnesses,Law Enforcement officials and investigators. Approximately 100 died suspiciously in 1964-78 and are listed in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database.

Crossfire, by Jim Marrs, includes a list of 103 “convenient deaths”. http://www.assassinationresearch.com/v1n2/deaths.html

There are 122 suspicious deaths (78 officially ruled unnatural) listed in the spreadsheet JFK Calc. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

The Simkin JFK Spartacus Education website contains biographies of 656 JFK-related individuals. http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm Approximately 64 died suspiciously and are listed in JFK Calc.

HSCA Testimony
The chief of research of the HSCA, Jacqueline Hess, testified: http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm
Our final conclusion on the issue is that the available evidence does not establish anything about the nature of these deaths which would indicate that the deaths were in some manner, either direct or peripheral, caused by the assassination of President Kennedy or by any aspect of the subsequent investigation.

One, to compute valid actuarial statistics, one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, the number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

This was an incorrect statement. The universe of witnesses could be the four investigations in which at least 67 died suspiciously from 1964-78.

Two, in addition, for each of the individuals identified in the groups I have just listed, we would have to establish age, sex, race, occupation, geographical location, and any other extraordinary factors which have to be taken into consideration in order to compute mortality rates. Again, this was judged to be an impossible job.

Another incorrect statement. Natural mortality rates (heart attack, cancer, etc.) are age adjusted. Unnatural death rates are not age-related.

Three, we would need to determine the number of individuals in these categories who have, in fact, died and the number of individuals who, according to actuarial mortality rates, should have died.We had thus established the impossibility of attempting establish through the application of actuarial principles, any meaningful implications about the existence or absence of a conspiracy. Despite the fact that an inference of conspiracy, as here postulated by the critics, did not exist, we nevertheless decided not to dismiss the cited deaths out of hand, but rather, to look more closely at the nature of certain specific deaths to determine whether or not they could individually be considered mysterious or in some other manner a reflection of some sort of conspiracy.

Impossible to determine an approximate number of JFK-related individuals who died suspiciously? That is a canard. All the HSCA had to do was view the list of those called to testify in four JFK investigations – including the HSCA. It ignored 100+ deaths, including 7 top FBI officials who died suspiciously within 6 months in 1977, De Morenschildt and others who were due to testify at HSCA. Note: Hess noted 23 names, including two key Mafia figures (Sam Giancana and John Roselli). But the two were not included in the detailed report requested by the HSCA interrogator. Strange. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

Mr. EDGAR – Will you provide for the record a detailed listing of the 21 names and the evidence you have found relating to their deaths?
Ms. HESS – Yes. Do you want me to read them for the record?
Mr. EDGAR – It might be helpful.

Ms. HESS – Edward Benavides, Albert Guy Bogard, Hale Boggs, Lee Bowers, Jr., Bill Chesher, Nicholas J. Chetta, David Goldstein, Thomas Hale Howard, William Hunter, Clyde Johnson, Dorothy Kilgallen, Thomas Henry Killam, Jim Koethe, FNU Levens, Nancy Jane Mooney, Teresa Norton, Earlene Roberts, Harold Russell, Marilyn April Walle, a.k.a. Betty McDonald, William W. Whaley, James R. Worrell, Sam Giancana, John Roselli.

Mr. EDGAR – Thank you. I think it very helpful for the record that those names be included. Can you indicate why Mr. DeMohrenschildt’s name was not included?
Ms. HESS – His was one of those which deemed further investigation and became part of a great investigative effort.

Actuary – 18 material witness deaths
M=homicide, A=accident, S=suicide, H=heart attack, O=other
W = testified at WC
Note:* No anti-Castro; CIA; Mafia; Dallas police in HSCA list of 21 deaths

S 6402 BETTY MACDONALD W
M 6403 HANK KILLAM
H 6403 BILL CHESHER
M 6404 BILL HUNTER
M 6405 GARY UNDERHILL * CIA/Life magazine, predicted his death

M 6409 JIM KOETHE
H 6503 TOM HOWARD
M 6507 HAROLD RUSSEL W
A 6512 WILLIAM WHALEY W
H 6601 EARLENE ROBERTS W

S 6602 ALBERT BOGARD W
O 6606 FRANK MARTIN W * Dallas Policeman (sudden cancer)
A 6608 LEE BOWERS W
M 6610 WILLIAM PITZER * Navy autopsy photographer, near retirement
A 6611 JAMES WORRELL W

O 6701 JACK RUBY W * Connected to Dallas PD, mob (sudden cancer)
M 6702 DAVID FERRIE * CIA, knew Oswald
M 6702 ELADIO DEL VALLE * anti-Castro, knew Ferrie

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
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Posted by on September 1, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Cover-up by the numbers

JFK: Cover-up by the Numbers

Richard Charnin
Aug.29, 2014
Updated: Sept.7, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Key Statistics in the JFK Cover-up

London Times actuary
0.000 probability (E-17 or 1 in 100,000 trillion) of 18 witness deaths by Feb. 1967
13 unnatural deaths (8 homicides,3 accidents,2 suicides) in London Times actuary’s calculation
454 approximate number of witnesses used by London Times actuary for calculation
552 Warren Commission witnesses (1964-78)

Ballistics
1 shooter according to the Warren Commission
3 shots according to the Warren Commission
4 DPD officials identified a 7.65 Mauser on the 6th floor of the TSBD
6 shots fired based on HSCA acoustic analysis of dictabelt recording

Magic Bullet
2 FBI agents attending autopsy said there was no bullet exit from the back wound
5 Ford raised the back wound 5 inches to accommodate the Single Bullet Theory
7 wounds supposedly caused by the Magic Bullet

Expected Unnatural Deaths from 1964-78 in a group of 1400
Officially ruled:
34 homicides; 2 expected
16 suicides; 3 expected > 13 homicides
24 accidental; 10 expected > 14 homicides
25 heart attacks; 10 expected > 15 homicides
14 other illness; 6 expected > 8 homicides
84 estimated homicides = 34+ 13+ 14+ 15+ 8

Oswald in the Doorway at 12:30
5 TSBD employees testified they were standing in the doorway
6 figures in Altgens6 standing in the doorway

Tippit shooting
10 witnesses saw or heard shots at 1:06PM. The WC said 1:16.
24 MPH required for Oswald to walk 0.8 miles to the scene in two minutes

Wounds
22 Parkland Hospital witnesses said there was an entrance wound in the throat
22 Parkland witnesses said there was an exit wound in the right rear of the head
22 Autopsy witnesses said there was an exit wound in the right rear of the head

Suspicious deaths- groups
7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA in 6 months (1977)
13 JFK-related witnesses predicted they would be murdered
20 Jack Ruby contacts
20 of 500 Dealey Plaza witnesses
21 reported by HSCA statistician (there were at least 80 more)
30 Warren Commission witnesses (1964-78)
51 of 122 occurred in the Dallas area
67 of 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc were sought in 4 investigations

Simkin JFK Index (Spartacus Educational)
22 official suicides
40 official unnatural deaths
64 unnatural and suspicious deaths
656 JFK-related individuals in index

Surveys: Grassy Knoll Source of Shots
0.999999 Probability of Grassy Knoll shooter
35 McAdams (36%)
51 Feldman (61%)
52 Galanor (52%)
85 Adjusted (70%)

0.999999 Probability of JFK Limo FULL STOP (i.e. Zapruder film alteration)
33 of 59 witnesses said the Limo came to a FULL STOP (Palamara)
44 heard a double-bang of nearly simultaneous shots (Mason)

Suspicious Deaths of JFK-related individuals (1964-78)
1400+ JFK-related individuals in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination
0.000 Probability (E-31) of 34 ruled homicides (1 in 6 million trillion trillion)
34 officially ruled homicides
78 officially ruled unnatural deaths
84 estimated homicides based on statistical expectation of other causes
99 estimated unnatural deaths based on expectation of natural causes
122 suspicious deaths listed in JFK Calc

Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
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Posted by on August 29, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

Richard Charnin
Aug. 23, 2004

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is strange how Warren Commission apologists still can’t get the difference between a random and selected group. They claim that the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses is not a RANDOM group; that it is SELF-SELECTED and therefore a probability calculation of 34 official homicides from the group of 1400 over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is not valid.

The apologists have used the same talking point from their disinformation playbook years after I have explained it a number of times in various forums. To use such a convoluted argument over and over again betrays utter confusion and/or an attempt to discredit the logic of the witness unnatural death analysis.

Yes, it is true, the group of 1400 JFK assassination-related individuals is NOT a random group. AND THAT IS WHY THE ZERO PROBABILITY OF 34 HOMICIDES IN THE GROUP IS VALID. The apologists cannot or refuse to accept the logic of that simple statement of fact.

The 1400+ JFK-related witnesses are listed in Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In the group, there were 34 officially ruled homicides (actually there were quite a few more since many suicides and accidents and heart attacks were statistically proven to be inflated and therefore were actually homicides). But we will stick with the bogus 34 official homicides.

How many accidents, suicides, suspiciously timed heart attacks, and sudden cancers were likely homicides? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/jfk-witness-deaths-how-many-accidents-suicides-and-natural-deaths-were-homicides/

In a RANDOM group of 1400, only two homicides would be expected given the average 0.000084 homicide rate over the 15 year period from 1964-78. But there were 34 homicides in the JFK-RELATED group of 1400!

The key point is that JFK-related witnesses were murdered at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than would be statistically expected in a RANDOM group of 1400.

The only relevant factors in calculating the probability are

1) N, the number of JFK-related witnesses
2) n, the number of official homicides
3) T, the time period in years
4) R, the average homicide rate

That is all we need to calculate the probability of n homicides in the N-group.
We first calculate E, the expected number of homicides.
E = N*T*R = 1.77 = 15*0.000084*1400.

The probability is calculated using the Poisson function:
P=POISSON (34, 1.77, false) = 1.57E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion.

This is not a poll. It is not a correlation analysis. Motivation for any given murder is not a factor. The 34 official murders among 1400 witnesses is all that matters. The 1 in 6 million trillion trillion probability means we have proven a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, find the probability of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is still effectively ZERO assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).

Homicide Probability Sensitivity Analysis

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

 
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Posted by on August 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Did Oswald shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses: NO; Warren Commission: YES

JFK:Did Oswald shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses:NO; Warren Commission:YES

Richard Charnin
Aug. 19, 2014

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According to all eyewitnesses, J.D. Tippit was shot at 1:06 pm. Oswald was standing outside his apartment at 1:04, 0.8 miles from the scene of the murder. So the Warren Commission needed to add ten minutes to the time of the murder to get Oswald at the scene by 1:16. Even that’s a stretch; covering 0.8 miles in 12 minutes (4.0 mph) is very fast walking. This lie was standard operating procedure for the Commission. Witness testimony and physical evidence which proved Oswald’s innocence was ignored or altered to fit the Lone Gunman myth.

• DPD Channel 1 dispatcher Murray Jackson contacts Tippit at 1:03 to get his location but gets no response. http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/car10.htm

• Dallas County Sheriff’s Deputy Roger Craig hears of the Tippit shooting at 1:06 over the police radio. http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/WTKaP.pdf

•  Dallas policeman T.F Bowley arrives at the scene at 1:10. http://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth339132/

• According to Warren Commission exhibit 705,  immediately following T.F Bowley’s transmission at 1:10, the DPD dispatcher called over DPD Channel 1 radio that Tippit had been shot. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh17/pdf/WH17_CE_705.pdf

• Helen Markham signs an affidavit on November 22nd that she was standing at the corner at “approximately 1:06″ when she saw Officer Tippit pull over and talk to a man for a few seconds before he exited his vehicle and was shot She maintained a consistent time when she told the Warren Commision that “it wasn’t 6 or 7 minutes after 1″ http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0444-001.gif

• Barbara Jeanette Davis signs an affidavit on November 22nd that she heard two shots “shortly after 1 PM”. http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0447-001.gif

• Ted Callaway signed an affidavit on November 22nd that he heard some shots “about 1 PM”. http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0453-001.gif

• Mrs. Margie Higgins of 417 East 10th Street said that “I just looked up at the clock on my television to verify the time and it said 1:06. At that point I heard the shots”. http://thegirlonthestairs.wordpress.com/

• Sam Guinyard signs an affidavit on November 22nd that he heard some shooting “about 1 PM” near Patton and 10th Street. http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0482-001.gif

• Domingo Benavides was driving west along 10th Street when he heard the shooting. Startled by the shots, Benavides pulled his pick-up truck to the curb almost directly across the street from Tippit’s patrol car, and ducked down inside his truck. Benavides informed the Warren Commission that he remained in his pick-up truck “for a few minutes” before exiting. He then went to Tippit and seeing that he was dead used Tippit’s car radio to call for help. When he replaced the microphone he looked up to see DP T. F. Bowley, who signed an affidavit that he arrived and saw “several people were at the scene” and Officer Tippit lying on the street dead. He checked his watch; it was 1:10. He then used the officer’s car radio to call in the murder. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh6/html/WC_Vol6_0228a.htm

• On January 21st 1964, Albert Austin signed an affidavit saying that “sometime after 1:00 PM” he heard approximately two or three shots and saw a policeman lying in front of a police car on the left front side. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/austin.htm

• On January 21st 1964, Francis Kinneth signed an affidavit saying that “at approximately 1:00 PM” he heard two or three shots and saw a parked police car and a uniformed police officer lying on the ground.

http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/kinneth.htm

• Frank Cimino signed an affidavit on December 3rd that “at about 1:00 PM” he heard four loud noises which sounded like shots. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/cimino_f.htm

• During the Warren Commission testimony of Officer J. M. Poe, assistant counsel Joseph A. Ball refers to Poe entering a witness-provided description on the dispatcher transcript log at 1:22 PM. According to Poe, by the time he arrived at the scene there were already “150 to 200 people around there” and the ambulance had already left. http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/russ/testimony/poe.htm

Did the Warren Commission tell the truth about anything? It did not mention that bullets recovered from Tippit’s body were from an automatic and Oswald had a revolver; or the vast majority of Dealey Plaza witnesses who heard or saw shots from the Grassy Knoll; the Zapuder film; or the impossible Magic Bullet which entered JFK’s back 5.5″ below the collar and never exited; or JFK Limo coming to a full stop; or the “double-bang” of nearly simultaneous shots; or Oswald in the Doorway of the TSBD; or why Billy Lovelady was asked to place a black arrow pointing to himself in the black area of Altgens6; or the fake Oswald backyard photos; or the 7.65 Mauser initially identified by 5 witnesses morphing into a Mannlicher Carcano; or that there is no record of Oswald ordering or taking delivery of the Carcano, or of Oswald being a $200/month FBI informer.

And the clincher: they expect us to believe that Oswald ran from the 6th floor to the second floor lunchroom in 75-90 seconds, holding a coke and cool as a cucumber. One fairy tale after another.

 
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Posted by on August 19, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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TSBD: Oswald was “out with Bill Shelley in front”; Lovelady was ”on the steps” in front of Shelley

TSBD: Oswald was “out with Bill Shelley in front”; Lovelady was ”on the steps” in front of Shelley

Richard Charnin
Aug. 7, 2014
Updated Sept.7, 2014

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Oswald told Will Fritz of the Dallas PD that he was “out with Bill Shelley in front” of the TSBD. The Fritz notes were not mentioned by the Warren Commission and were hidden from the public until 1997.

If Oswald was lying to Fritz, what was his motive? After all, he already had an alibi: he was seen on the second floor 90 seconds after the shooting by TSBD manager Roy Truly and policeman Marrion Baker. He was holding a coke and not out of breath. If Oswald was not on the 6th floor, why would he not be out front watching the motorcade? And how would he know Bill Shelley was out in front unless he saw him there? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/04/05/10137/

Oswald deniers say that he told Fritz he changed his shirt. Could it have been his tee shirt? But what’s the diff? The shirt he was wearing at the TSBD is the same style (open in a V pattern) as the one he was wearing at the police station. Lovelady did not open his shirt in a V-pattern to show a tee, assuming he wore a tee. In any case, Judyth Baker’s pixel analysis of the shirts proves that Lovelady cannot be Doorman.

In the Altgens6 photo, there are three men standing just to the left (and one or two steps below) Doorman. They are standing in front of the figure covering his or her eyes on the top level. Warren Commission testimony indicates that Oswald, Shelley and Frazier were standing on the TOP level (first floor) of the TSBD. Lovelady, Williams and Molina were standing on the STEPS below. Was Williams standing between Lovelady and Molina?

If you look close, the man standing to the left of Lovelady on the steps is wearing a shirt and tie. Lovelady’s shirt is obscured by the cutoout.

Except for Doorman, the faces are all obscured. But the upper right portion of the whited-out face of the figure in front is visible and appears to match Lovelady. Was his face cut out and pasted over Doorman?

http://ahabit.com/witness/

Lovelady testified at the Warren Commission that he was standing on the steps of the TSBD in front of Bill Shelley. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/lovelady.htm

Mr. LOVELADY – That’s on the second floor; so, I started going to the domino room where I generally went in to set down and eat and nobody was there and I happened to look on the outside and Mr. Shelley was standing outside with Miss Sarah Stanton, I believe her name is, and I said, “Well, I’ll go out there and talk with them, sit down and eat my lunch out there, set on the steps,” so I went out there.
Mr. BALL – You ate your lunch on the steps?
Mr. LOVELADY – Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL – Who was with you?
Mr. LOVELADY – Bill Shelley and Sarah Stanton, and right behind me…
Mr. BALL – What was that last name?
Mr. LOVELADY – Stanton.
Mr. BALL – What is the first name?
Mr. LOVELADY – Bill Shelley.
Mr. BALL – And Stanton’s first name?
Mr. LOVELADY – Miss Sarah Stanton.
Mr. BALL – Did you stay on the steps?
Mr. LOVELADY – Yes.
Mr. BALL – Were you there when the President’s motorcade went by?
Mr. LOVELADY – Right

Attorney Joseph Ball took out CE 369. Buell Frazier had placed a black arrow pointing to Doorman in the white area. Lovelady was asked to point the black arrow to himself by placing it in a dark area. On very close inspection, it appears that Lovelady placed the arrow pointing to the figure whose face was cut out standing in front of Bill Shelley.
Mr. BALL – I have got a picture here, Commission Exhibit 369. Are you on that picture?
Mr. LOVELADY – Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL – Take a pen or pencil and mark an arrow where you are.
Mr. LOVELADY – Where I thought the shots are?
Mr. BALL – No; you in the picture.
Mr. LOVELADY – Oh, here (indicating).
Mr. BALL – Draw an arrow down to that; do it in the DARK. You got an arrow in the DARK and one in the WHITE pointing toward you. Where were you when the picture was taken?
Mr. LOVELADY – Right there at the entrance of the building standing on the top step, would be here (indicating).
Mr. BALL – You were standing on which step?
Mr. LOVELADY – It would be your top level.
Mr. BALL – The top step you were standing there?
Mr. LOVELADY – Right.

William Shelley testified under oath that he was standing on the TOP landing of the entrance to the TSBD. Billy Lovelady testified that he first sat on the step in FRONT of Shelley and had his lunch. If Shelley was not standing behind Lovelady, where was he? Doorman was standing on the top level (the 1st floor). http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/shelley1.htm

Mr. SHELLEY – Oh, several people were out there waiting to watch the motorcade and I went out to join them.
Mr. BALL – And who was out there?
Mr. SHELLEY – Well, there was Lloyd Viles of McGraw-Hill, Sarah Stanton, she’s with Texas School Book, and Wesley Frazier and Billy Lovelady joined us shortly afterwards.
Mr. BALL – You were standing where?
Mr. SHELLEY – Just outside the glass doors there.
Mr. BALL – That would be on the top landing of the entrance?
Mr. SHELLEY – Yes.

Buelle Frazier testified that Lovelady was standing two or three steps below him. This was contradicted when he placed an arrow pointing to Doorman who was standing on the top level. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/frazierb1.htm

Mr. BALL – We have got a picture taken the day of the parade and it shows the President’s car going by.
Now, take a look at that picture. Can you see your picture any place there?
Mr. FRAZIER – No, sir; I don’t, because I was back up in this more or less black area here.
Mr. BALL – I see.
Mr. FRAZIER – Because Billy, like I say, is two or three steps down in front of me.
Mr. BALL – Do you recognize this fellow?
Mr. FRAZIER – That is Billy, that is Billy Lovelady.

Mr. BALL – Billy?
Mr. FRAZIER – Right
Mr. BALL – Let’s take a marker and make an arrow down that way. That mark is Billy Lovelady?
Mr. FRAZIER – Right.
Mr. BALL – That is where you told us you were standing a moment ago.
Mr. FRAZIER – Right.
Mr. BALL – In front of you to the right over to the wall?
Mr. FRAZIER – Yes.
Mr. BALL – Is this a Commission exhibit?
We will make this a Commission Exhibit No. 369.
(The document referred to was marked Commission Exhibit No. 369 for identification.)

Joe Molina said he was on the uppermost step.

Mr. BALL. Where were you standing?
Mr. MOLINA. Right at the front door; right at the front door.
Mr. BALL. Outside the front door?
Mr. MOLINA. Yes, outside the front door I was standing; the door was right behind me.
Mr. BALL. Were you standing on the steps?
Mr. MOLINA. Yes, on the uppermost step.

Otis Williams was standing on the top step.
(Warren Commission Hearings, vol.22, p.683, 19 March 1964)
“I was standing on the top step against the railing on the east side of the steps in front of the building. I do not recall who was standing on either side of me.

http://ahabit.com/witness/

Carolyn Arnold, a secretary working for the Texas School Book Depository, provided support for Lee Harvey Oswald’s alibi. She said that he was on the first (i.e. ground) floor of the TSBD at the time of President Kennedy’s assassination. http://22november1963.org.uk/carolyn-arnold-witness-oswald

Charles Givens was not asked where he was at 12:30. Danny Arce said was in front but “on the grass”. The others said they were inside the building on the upper floors. Jack Dougherty’s testimony is suspicious and confusing. Sarah Stanton (TSBD employee) and Lloyd Viles of the AP were not interviewed by the Warren Commission. Links to the Warren Commission testimony of TSBD employees are given below.

Doorman’s shirt, open in a V to reveal a tee shirt, was identical to the shirt Oswald was wearing in custody. Lovelady did not wear his shirt open in a V. Judith Baker’s pixel analysis proves Doorman’s shirt matched Oswald’s shirt, not Lovelady’s. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/jfk-judyth-baker-pixel-analysis-of-altgens6-photo-proves-oswald-is-doorman/

Ten Reasons why Lovelady is the CUTOUT figure standing on the STEPS in FRONT of the TSBD and Oswald is Doorman on the TOP Level (the FIRST FLOOR).

Along with Judyth Baker’s pixelation analysis which proves that Doorman’s shirt matches Oswald’s and not Lovelady’s….

1. If the cutout in front was not Lovelady, there would be no need to cut him out.
2. Lovelady testified he was on the steps in front.
3. Frazier testified he was on the top level and Lovelady was in front on the steps.
4. Molina testified that he was on the steps in front.
5. Shelley testified Lovelady was on the steps in front of him.
6. Williams testified he was on the steps in front between two witnesses
7. The face of the cutout in the GIF perfectly matches Lovelady.
8. Oswald told Fritz he was with Bill Shelley out front.
9. The top right of the cutout’s face in Altgens6 perfectly matches Lovelady.
10. If the cutout figure is not Lovelady, then who is it?

Only five TSBD employees testified that they were out in front: TWO on the Top Level (first floor) and THREE on the steps in FRONT.

Was ‘Prayer Man’ Lee Harvey Oswald?

http://22november1963.org.uk/oswald-on-tsbd-front-steps

A process of elimination allows the possibility that Prayer Man may have been Oswald. Of the fourteen witnesses who are known to have been standing on the TSBD steps, the seven women and two black men may be ruled out immediately. The remaining five white men may also be ruled out, with varying degrees of certainty:

Joe Molina was wearing a suit and tie, unlike the figure.
Bill Shelley also was wearing a suit and tie, unlike the figure.
Billy Lovelady can be identified standing to the east of the figure.
Buell Wesley Frazier was wearing a jacket, unlike the figure, and testified that he was standing to the east of Shelley and Lovelady.
Otis Williams testified that he was standing at the eastern end of the steps, a location supported by Molina’s testimony. Williams’s clothing is undetermined, but his job title, Bookkeeping Supervisor, implies that he would not have worn a casual shirt to work.

Prayer Man’s location, at the top of the steps, suggests that he is unlikely to have been a passer–by. He is more likely to have been someone who worked inside the TSBD building, as were all the fourteen witnesses known to have been standing in the doorway during the assassination. All of the TSBD’s white, male, manual workers were accounted for, apart from Oswald.

Why did the WC not question policeman Marrion Baker on his affidavit in which he stated that he saw a man who did not match Oswald’s appearance on the third or fourth floor walking away from the stairwell?http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0426-001.gif TSBD manager Roy Truly said the man worked at the TSBD. There was no mention of encountering anyone in the 2nd floor lunchroom.

According to Occhus Campbell, Vice-President of the TSBD, Oswald was seen near a small storage room on the first floor shortly after the shooting. http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-lunchroom-encounter-that-never-was.html

Proof that the AP and the FBI were actively involved in altering the Altgens6 photo is revealed in this memo: http://jamesfetzer.blogspot.com/2013/09/jfk-cartha-deloach-fbi-memorandum-and.html

The claim that Lovelady must be Doorman because he looks like him is not evidence. Doorman also looks like Oswald. But Doorman’s shirt matches Oswald’s.

- Lone nutters claim that Lovelady is Doorman because Oswald was on the 6th floor.
– Many conspiracy theorists claim Lovelady is Doorman because Oswald was on the 2nd floor. They believe that Oswald lied to Fritz.

- Lone nutters believe everything in the Warren report is true.
– Many conspiracy theorists do not believe the report but believe the Warren Commission that Oswald was on the 2nd floor 90 seconds after the shooting.

- Lone Nutters believe Oswald descended from the 6th to the 2nd floor in 75 seconds.
– Many conspiracy theorists do not consider that Oswald could have gone from the first floor to the 2nd in 15 seconds.

Questions:
– Why is every face in Altgens6 obscured? What are the odds?
– Is Jack Ruby standing outside the TSBD obscured except for his Fedora?

Did Officer Baker and Roy Truly encounter Oswald on the 2nd floor? http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-lunchroom-encounter-that-never-was.html

Of 17 TSBD employees interviewed by the Warren Commission, 9 said the shots came from the Grassy Knoll (GK), 5 TSBD (TB), 1 Knoll and TSBD, 1 other, 1 not asked

* standing in front of TSBD
Adams, Victoria GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/adams_v.htm
Arce, Danny GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/arce.htm
Baker, Mrs. Donald GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/baker.htm
Burns, Doris GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/burns.htm
Dougherty, Jack TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/doughert.htm

* Frazier, Buell Wesley GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/frazierb1.htm
Givens, Charles not asked http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/givens1.htm
Hine, Geneva TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/hine.htm
Jarman, James Other http://jfkassassination.net/russ/m_j_russ/jarman.htm
* Lovelady, Billy GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/lovelady.htm

* Molina, Joe GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/molina.htm
Norman, Harold TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/m_j_russ/norman.htm
Piper, Eddie TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/piper2.htmSanders,
Reid, Mrs. Robert TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/reid.htm
Sanders, Pauline GKTB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/exhibits/ce1434.htm

* Shelley, William GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/shelley1.htm
Truly, Roy GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/truly1.htm

A discussion on the Deep Politics Forum:

https://deeppoliticsforum.com/forums/showthread.php?9414-TSBD-Doorway-man-Oswald-or-Lovelady/page47#.VA8Iy_BX-uY

 
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Posted by on August 7, 2014 in JFK

 

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