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Author Archives: Richard Charnin

About Richard Charnin

In 1965, I graduated from Queens College (NY) with a BA in Mathematics. I later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University and an MS in Operations Research from the Polytechnic Institute of NY. I started out as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer and then moved to Wall Street as a manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for several major investment banks. I consulted in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In 2004 l began posting weekly "Election Model" projections based on state and national polls. As "TruthIsAll", I have been posting election analysis to determine the True Vote ever since.

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that the exit polls are always off (by 8% on average), therefore they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national exit polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy in 1 in trillions. The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Does the rationale sound crazy to you? Despite all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

I have been posting on this very unscientific procedure since 2004. In this post I will review the basic method used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. The pattern of deceit will be revealed by adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
There were 13,660 National Exit Poll respondents and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. But who questioned it? Who even knew about it? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

2008 Presidential
There were 17,836 National Exit Poll respondents. Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Bush 2004 voters and 37% (48 million) returning Kerry voters.This was impossible; it implied a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters. Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2010 Florida Governor
Scott defeated Sink with 50.59% of the 2-party vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll. In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Obama and McCain voters. But Obama won the recorded vote by 6%, so it is reasonable to assume that there would have been more returning Obama voters than McCain voters – and the unadkjusted exit poll indicates precisely that. Sink won the election. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=2079407084

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The crosstab How Did You Vote in 2010 is not listed, so let’s look at the Florida Party ID demographic. Democrats have traditionally outnumbered Republicans in Florida. But the 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33% (Dem-Rep-Ind) split. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott did among Republicans (88%). Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When Party ID is changed to a plausible 34-33-33% split, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. There is anomalous disconnect between Party ID and vote share.

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

In 2010, Walker won by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. But the True Vote Model (TVM) showed that he needed 23% of Obama returning voters to match the recorded vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t4pqdOMFhfNwaIq8ELOAg_w#gid=32

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Walker won with a 52.9% share. The exit poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by cutting returning Barrett voters to just 35% of 2014 voters, compared to Walker’s 50%. The 15% differential is much higher than the 7% Walker recorded margin (8% discrepancy) and the 6% Barrett True Vote margin (a 21% discrepancy).When the returning voter mix is changed to a feasible Barrett 45/Walker 41%, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%. In the “How Voted in 2012″ crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). This is highly anomalous and another “tell” that Walker stole the election. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=2079407084

 
 

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

As usual Nate gets it wrong. He talks about polling bias but not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but in reality any researcher who analyzes the historical record should see a consistent pattern – a red shift- to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit it. It is standard operating procedure. The rationale is that the polls must be wrong and therefore must be adjusted to match the pristine fraud-free recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls.

I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

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Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.14, 2014
Updated:Nov.21, 2014

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

For the first time since 2000, I decided not to do election forecasting and post-election True Vote analysis for 2014. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media remains mute on election fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

I decided to analyze the Florida Governor election since there has been a strong response to the Wisconsin Governor post. This post will essentially duplicate the Wisconsin analysis. Only the numbers will change. Important general comments on Election Fraud will be repeated here.

Once again, the mantra must be repeated: The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. The unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we must look at the adjusted exit poll (national, state, governor) for clues.

The 2014 election was 2010 deja vu. In 2010, Scott won the 2-party recorded vote with 50.59%. In 2014, he won with 50.58%! He won the recorded vote by 49.6-48.4% (62,000 votes). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (283,000 votes). In 2014 Scott won the recorded vote by 1.1% (48.2-47.1%), while Crist won the True Vote by 52.0-48.0%.

This is the direct link to the 2014 Florida Governor True Vote analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

The 2014FLGov spreadsheet contains the following worksheets:
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
– 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
– 2014 FL County Vote vs. 2010 (“Counties’)
– 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

There is a distinct pattern which keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. That is a fact; the pollsters admit it, but claim that they do it to correct the polls. The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and that there is no fraud. At least that is what the pollsters and pundits would like you to believe. But there is no longer any doubt: elections are routinely fraudulent.

In order to adjust the exit poll to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All other crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books.

2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of crosstabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. The exit poll margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of a 0.6% deviation is close to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. But they never do even though they have the statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

Florida 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Scott won by 49.6-48.4%, a 62,000 vote margin. But Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 283,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy). There were 3,150 exit poll respondents and a 2.3% poll margin of error. Sink had a 99% win probability. But the poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% were returning McCain voters. But Obama won the Florida 2008 unadjusted exit poll by 6% So how does one explain the equal 47% mix of returning voters? This is the standard ‘tell’: the mix is adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote. The mix was changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll.
Sink is the winner of the True vote by 50.8-47.1%

2010 Unadjusted Exit Poll
................Sink Scott Other
Respondents.....1600 1431 119
Poll Share......50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Poll Vote.......2683 2400 200
Margin..........283

2010 True Vote
2008...........Vote Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........989 50% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........848 43% 7% 87% 2%
Other...........220 6% 53% 44% 3%
DNV..............34 1.7% 53.0% 44.0% 3%
Respondents....1991 100% 50.8% 47.1% 2.1%
Votes...................5282 2683 2488 111
Margin 195

2010 Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
2008............Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........47% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........47% 11% 87% 2%
Other............3% 31% 67% 2%
DNV..............3% 31% 67% 2%
Total..........100% 48.4% 49.6% 2.0%
Votes.................. 2556 2620 106
Margin -64

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
The How Voted in 2010 crosstab was not listed, but we have the True Vote model. The returning voter mix was changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll. Crist is the winner of the True vote by 52-48%.

Party ID
The Florida Adjusted 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%.

Counties
There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than in 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. This is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenario:
1) Sink had a 52.2% True Vote share in 2010
2) In 2014, there was a 93% turnout of living 2010 voters
3) Crist had 92.5% of returning Sink voters
4) Crist had 6.9% of returning Scott voters
5) Crist had 54% of new voters

In the Base Case scenario, Crist had a 52.0% share and won by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins over a range of 18 scenarios. He won 17.

1988-2008 Presidential Elections
A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.19, 2014
Update:Nov.21, 2014

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

For the first time since 2000, I decided not to do election forecasting and post-election True Vote analysis for 2014. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media remains mute on election fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

I worked closely with Wisconsin election reform activists on the 2011 Supreme Court election, the state recalls and the Walker recall. But since I decided to bypass 2014, I was not even aware of who was running against Walker. When I was asked to look into the election, I felt like Al Pacino in Godfather III:Just when I think I am out of it, they pull me back in again.

Once again, the mantra must be repeated: The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. Unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we are left with the adjusted polls (national, state, governor) for clues. The 2014 election was 2012 deja vu all over again.

This is the direct link to the 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=841488888

There is a distinct pattern which keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. That is a fact; the pollsters admit it, but claim that they do it to correct the polls. The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and that there is no fraud. At least that is what the pollsters and pundits would like you to believe. But there is no longer any doubt: elections are routinely fraudulent.

In order to adjust the exit poll to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All other crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books.

In order to analyze the 2014 Wisconsin Governor race, I have created the spreadsheet 2014WIGov. It contains the following worksheets (the sheet names are in quotes):
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Gov. Exit Poll (‘WI Exit Poll’)
– 2014 Wisconsin County Vote vs. 2012 Recall Vote (“Counties’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of crosstabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.1% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. The exit poll margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of a 0.1% deviation is close to zero. The 0.1% deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. But they never do even though they have the statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

WI Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
The poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the number of returning voters. It shows that returning Walker voters were 50% of the 2014 total. while Barrett voters were just 35% of the total. The 15% differential is much higher than the 7% Walker recorded margin in 2012 (8% discrepancy) and the 6% Barrett True Vote margin ( 21% discrepancy). Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning voter percentages are implausible. So how could there be a 15% excess of returning Walker voters over returning Barrett voters?

Another “tell”: In the “How Voted in 2012″ crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). The result is a Walker landslide by 55.4-43.1%, a whopping 12.3% margin. But he had a bogus 52.9% recorded share. The two basic clues that the 2014 election was fixed are obvious from the adjusted exit poll:
1) The 2012 Returning Voter mix is highly implausible.
2) The vote shares for 14% of the 2014 electorate are not available.

This is the standard election fraud “tell”: the returning voter mix has been adjusted to increase the Republican share. When the returning voter mix is changed to a feasible Barrett/Walker 45/41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

WISCONSIN 2014 EXIT POLL (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER..........TOTAL BURKE WALKER
Male............49% 39.0% 60.0%
Female..........51% 54.0% 45.0%
Total..........100% 46.7% 52.4% Walker Margin:5.7%
Recorded.......100% 47.1% 52.9% Walker Margin:5.8%
Difference.......-0.46% -0.54% Difference: 0.08%

HOW VOTED IN 2012 RECALL (suspicious turnout in 2014 and 14% na)
RECORDED VOTE..TOTAL BURKE WALKER
Tom Barrett.....35% 96.0% 4.0%
Scott Walker....50% 5.0% 94.0%
Other na........3% 50.0% 50.0% (na? I set to 50/50)
DNV na..........11% 50.0% 50.0% (na? I set to 50/50)
TOTAL...........99% 43.1% 55.4% Walker Margin:12.3%

TRUE VOTE......TOTAL BURKE WALKER
Tom Barrett.... 45% 96.0% 4.0% (set to plausible 45/41 returning voter mix)
Scott Walker....41% 5.0% 94.0%
Other...........3% 50.0% 50.0%
DNV.............11% 52.0% 48.0% (adjust new voter shares)
TOTAL..........100% 52.5% 47.1% Burke Margin:5.4%

Counties
Now, getting back to Wisconsin 2014, we see that there is a significant 0.24 correlation between Walker’s 2014 county votes and turnout (it was 0.28 in the 2012 recall). This measure indicates that as turnout increased, so did Walker’s vote share. But it is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The TVM was used in 2012 and prior elections. The data is updated for 2014 using 2012 returning voters and 2014 vote share percentages. The base case scenario:
1) Barrett had a 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall
2) 93% turnout of 2012 living voters in 2014
3) Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
4) Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
5) Burke had 54% of new voters.

In this Base Case scenario, Burke had a 52.2% share and won by 107,000 votes.

The Sensitivity analysis shows Burke’s total vote shares and margins for alternative scenarios of vote share and turnout of 2012 voters.

A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

I have analyzed elections since 2000, but decided not to in 2014 because it has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are interested in fair elections. If they were, election fraud would have been eliminated long ago. We need to become familiar with an historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

I calculated 2014 National Exit Poll cross tabs (demographic) vote shares. But it is ultimately a fruitless exercise since we do not have unadjusted exit polls. We cannot view the exit poll respondent’s actual preferences; they were adjusted to match the recorded vote. National and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – in all categories.

Here is the proof. In 2014, the Republicans won the recorded vote by 5.7%. They won the adjusted House National Exit Poll by 5.8%. The 0.1% difference is not due to perfect polling.
..........................Dem Rep Other Margin
Recorded Vote.......... 46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Adjusted NEP (Gender)...46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Difference...............0.5% 0.4% -0.9% -0.1%

This is an excellent related article by Jonathan Simon: Vote Counts and Polls: An Insidious Feedback Loop

According to the final, adjusted 2014 National Exit poll, the Republicans had a 52-46% margin. As you all know by now (or should if you have been paying attention) the UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the True Vote Model in all presidential elections since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.

In 2012, the number of states exit polled was reduced to 31. The NEP finally came to realize that the unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud – so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have the adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is now sharply curtailed.

Therefore, voters must demand to see the unadjusted exit polls, including polled precincts. Let’s see how the National Election Pool (CNN, WaPo, CBS, ABC, AP, FOX) responds. To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers. (i.e. the the corporate media).

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in Election Myths

 

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Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

In the 1973 film Executive Action, the narrator disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated a one in 100,000 trillion probability of eighteen material JFK-related witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. The calculation was mathematical proof of a conspiracy. After all, a professional actuary who has passed difficult mathematical exams would be expected to come up with a good estimate of the odds; that is what he does for a living. But in 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) dismissed the actuary’s odds, stating the odds were invalid because the universe of witnesses was “unknowable”. That was not true. The HSCA never showed the actuary’s methodology. In 1989 Jim Marrs published Crossfire in which he listed 103 convenient JFK-related deaths. Along with Jim Garrison’s On the Trail of the Assassins, Crossfire was the basis for Oliver Stone’s historic JFK.

In 2003, using Marrs’ list, I calculated the probability of at least 15 unnatural witness deaths in the first year, essentially confirming the actuary’s calculation. The HSCA did not consider unnatural deaths which comprised the majority of suspicious deaths; it noted just 21 deaths when there were at least 122 by 1978. Reclaiming Science is based on a statistical analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence.

Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory. They claim that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository but was in front on the first floor watching the motorcade. As a result, the mainstream media has lost all credibility and must be considered complicit in the ongoing 50 year cover-up. Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is a challenge to the media to let real scientific experts present the facts. Let the experts debate the Warren Commission apologists in full public view.

 
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Posted by on October 24, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

Richard Charnin
Oct.6, 2014
Updated: Oct.16,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

LN: Lone Nutter (Warren Commission apologist)

1. The Badgeman photo was declared authentic by MIT and other photo analysts.
LN: MIT and all the others were wrong. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Badgeman_coloured.jpg

2. Witness testimony that Tippet was killed no later than 1:06 proves that Oswald could not have been the shooter.
LN: All the witnesses at the scene were mistaken. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

3. All Parkland doctors and witnesses said they observed a small throat entrance wound and a massive head exit wound. This proves there were at least two shots from the front and destroys the Single Bullet Theory.
LN: The Parkland doctors were mistaken. They never saw the head wound. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/8804/backofheadorangesizedwo.jpg

4. Jack Ruby said it was a conspiracy and LBJ was involved.
LN: Ruby was lying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zd4r4O0o_Y

5. Parkland Dr. Charles Crenshaw viewed a neck entrance wound and head exit wound.
LN: Crenshaw was mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM

6. The Altgens6 photo was altered to eliminate Oswald in the doorway.
LN: There was no alteration. Lovelady is Doorman. http://www.veteranstoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GrodenAnnot-one-half14.jpg

7. The JFK autopsy photos of the head exit wound were covered.
LN: The following top view was altered to show an exit head wound; the back view is unaltered and does not show an exit wound. http://www.celebritymorgue.com/jfk/jfk-autopsy.html

8. The figure in the Altgens6 photo sitting in front whose face is cut out is Billy Lovelady. The cutout is not an arm. No one holds their arms VERTICALLY OVER the eyes to shade them; if they did, they would not be able to see. We hold our arm(s) HORIZONTALLY ABOVE our eyes to shade them from the sun.
LN: That is not a cutout of Lovelady. It was just a photo processing glitch. http://betshort.com/loveos.gif

9. An FBI official attending the autopsy claimed there was no bullet exit from the back wound.
LN: The FBI official was either lying or mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4

10. Wesley Frazier testified five different times that Lovelady was standing in front of him on the STEPS of the TSBD. If so, Lovelady could not have been Doorman who was standing on the TOP level (first floor).
LN: Frazier was mistaken in all five statements. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

11. A pixelation analysis of Doorman’s shirt by Judyth Baker proves LHO was Doorman.
LN: The analysis is bogus, junk science. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1X2eD2Wl3xSmRHTuE02ntfYkb3ES2Kuo8wl3HHzzAlD8/pub

12. Doorman’s shirt in Altgens6 matched that of Oswald in custody.
LN: it is not the same shirt Oswald was wearing in custody. https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ-FeA_djwkRgNMUeGWcRuJNyXfghtQcvkzVC9bpY3JI8jlhZMn

13. Doug Horne (ARRB) and Dino Brugioni (world class photo interpreter) proved that the Zapruder film was altered and the chain of custody was broken. The film does not show the JFK Limo stop seen by 33 witnesses.
LN: Horne and Brugioni are mistaken. The Limo never stopped. The 33 witnesses were all mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGr21FZBVL4

14. The Oswald backyard photos were faked; the face is pasted from the same cutout in each of the four photos.
LN: the fact that there is no change in expression or position is not proof of fakery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSmOS3BGFVo

15. Gerald Ford of the Warren Commission moved the back wound (which never exited) up 5” to make it conform to the Magic Bullet exiting the neck.
LN: Ford wanted to fix the error in the evidence and did nothing wrong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

16. The Single Bullet Theory was a contrived farce because the Warren Commission needed to have two bullets cause seven wounds in JFK and Connally.
LN: Arlen Spector would not just make it up. Gerald Ford moved the back wound up a few inches to indicate the true location of the entrance wound at the base of the neck described by Spector. FBI officials Sibert and O’Neill both lied when they claimed there was no exit from the back wound. http://bullet.my3gb.com/images/4-kennedy-magic-bullet.jpg

17. At least 78 of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 17 were expected statistically. The probability is E-62 (one in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The witnesses were not directly related. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

18. At least 40 of 656 JFK-related witnesses listed in Simkin’s JFK Index died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 8 were expected statistically. The probability is E-37 (one in a trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The only reason the witnesses were included by Simkin is because they died. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

19. At least 51 of 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet/database were located in the Dallas area. The obvious connection is the JFK assassination.
LN: The witnesses were self-selected. It was just a coincidence. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

20. 33 of 59 witnesses said the JFK limo came to a FULL stop. The probability they would all be mistaken is ZERO. This proves that the Zapruder film was altered since it does not show a full stop.
LN: Witness testimony is unreliable. The calculation is invalid. The Zapruder film was not altered. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

 
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Posted by on October 6, 2014 in JFK

 

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