Warren Commission Apologists and Trolls: Feeble Attempts to Debunk JFK Probability Analysis

Warren Commission Apologists and Trolls: Feeble Attempts to Debunk JFK Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
May 29,2013
Updated June 12, 2013

I posted a JFK Witness death analysis on the JFK Forum: https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/9nU_KiM-2E0

John McAdams, the most prolific Warren Commission apologist and lone nutter replied:
“Look . . . you are wasting our time here unless you do the following: Purge your list of people who were *not* any sort of witnesses. Just the fact that buffs *think* somebody might have something to do with the assassination does not make them a witness. Indeed, the majority of people on your list are *not* witnesses”.

If you wanted to approach this seriously (and you clearly don’t) you would take some *defined* population (say, everybody who testified before the Warren Commission) and see how many of those died within a defined time span. You would also have to do some things that a real actuary would know about, such as taking into account the ages of the people on the list.

I glanced at your other blog posts. In spite of the fact that I specialize in voter behavior, your treatment of this issue makes me uninterested in looking at anything else on your blog. You simply don’t know how to approach these issues.

http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm

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This is a link to my JFK blog posts: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/jfk/

You are really reaching, John McAdams. You just proved why you are the premier, quintessential Lone Nutter and Warren Commission shill. I have approached this subject very seriously since Nov. 22, 1963. YOU are the one who is clearly not interested in a serious analysis. You are only serious in promoting obfuscations. Where is your probability analysis? Are you even capable of doing one?

Point number 1: If you read my post(s) you would have seen that I calculate unnatural death probabilities for 552 Warren Commission witnesses over 1, 3 and 14 year periods – and a lot more:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=0

Point number 2: It’s 2013 and you still don’t understand that a material witness is one who had a connection to the assassination, even if he or she was not called to testify. The witnesses you want to “purge” from the database are very material. There are eyewitnesses, there are material witnesses who have inside knowledge, and there are witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, the Garrison-Shaw trial, Senate Intelligence Committee and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Many of them were so material that they were eliminated before they had a chance to testify.

I could go on and on. McAdams, you are not paying attention. I did the Warren Commission witness calculations and gave you links in the spreadsheet. What is the point of debating when you IGNORE the evidence presented in the post which focuses on Warren Commission witness deaths?

Let’s first consider the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times who calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in 3 years.

Warren Commission apologists often quote the Times Legal Manager’s letter to the HSCA in dismissing the odds (see below). The vagueness of the letter was a clever ruse to distract from the actuary’s assumptions and methodology – which were never stated. Therefore the calculation was NEVER actually refuted (see below).

But that’s not all: the HSCA statistician claimed that the universe of witnesses was impossible to determine and therefore the calculation was not valid. That is absolutely untrue. There were 552 Warren Commission witnesses and approximately 250 other material witnesses who were called to testify at the Garrison/Shaw trial, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the HSCA (see below).

The actuary’s calculation is confirmed by:
1- 552 Warren Commission witnesses and 0.000544 weighted overall mortality rate.
2- 2479 in the Warren Commission Index and 0.000121 JFK-weighted unnatural mortality rate.

In the three year period, there was a 1 in 550 billion probability of 15 unnatural deaths among the 2479 named in the Warren Commission Index. The probability of 10 homicides was 1 in 12 billion.

There were approximately 1400 material witnesses. Of this group, at least 76 died unnaturally: 46 homicides, 22 suicides (were they homicides?), 8 accidents (were they homicides?) and 34 were suspiciously timed heart attacks, sudden cancers, illnesses or unknown causes. Yet you claim there is nothing to see here; you keep spreading disinformation that Oswald was a Lone Nut and the Warren Commission conducted an honest investigation.

There were approximately 800 material witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations. You ignore the fact that at least 50 of the 110 deaths listed in the database were witnesses who were called to testify.

Twenty-five (25) testified at the 1964 Warren Commission, 12 were sought for the 1969 Garrison/Shaw Trial, 5 at the 1975 Senate Intelligence hearings, 20 at the 1977 House Select Committee on Assassinations. Ten were called to testify in two investigations, but never made it to the second.

Seven (7) top FBI officials died in six months from June-November 1977 – just before their scheduled testimony at the HSCA. Just a coincidence?

Given the conservative 0.000542 national unnatural mortality rate, the probability of 50 unnatural deaths occurring by chance is less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION. Given the 0.000153 JFK-witness weighted unnatural mortality rate, the probability is less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

You cannot argue that the 50 witnesses were not connected to the assassination. They were relevant enough to be called to testify. BUT THEIR RELEVANCE AND CONNECTION IS A MOOT POINT AS FAR AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE CONCERNED. Given 800 witnesses, the number and cause of death and relevant time period are all that matter. The only inputs to the Poisson distribution function for calculating probabilities are the expected number of deaths (based on mortality rate, number of witnesses and time period) and the actual number of unnatural deaths.

You have nothing left, so you are forced to deny 70 material witnesses, including Dorothy Kilgallen, Florence Smith, William Pitzer, Rose Cheramie, Lisa Howard, Nancy Tyler, Mary Pinchot Meyer, Mary Sherman, Guy Bannister, Jack Zangetty, Grant Stockdale, Gary Underhill, etc, just because they did not testify? And you call yourself an expert? The objections you guys throw up are laughable.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/

At the end of the 1973 film Executive Action it was noted that “In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes. An actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION”.

In response to a letter from the HSCA, the Sunday Times Legal Manager wrote:
“There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material”.

No, the actuary got it right. That’s why he (or she) was a certified actuary. No one can recall the actuary’s name? And it’s hardly material? In fact, Whitaker misrepresented what is essentially a simple mathematical problem: to determine the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths over relevant time intervals within a given population group.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/jfk-witness-deaths-calculating-the-probabilities/

Whitaker claimed the actuary was asked to calculate the odds of 15 deaths in a given period. But there were actually at least 40 unnatural deaths in the three years. The Sunday Times did not specify unnatural deaths. Let’s calculate the odds of 15 Warren Commission witness unnatural deaths in three years using two unnatural mortality rates.

View the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t1RSsUwoqYcrzGv_VIbYJNw#gid=0

The objections the lone nutters throw out are pathetic:
1. Eddy Benavides not a witness?, No, but his brother Domingo, a witness to the Tippit slaying, could not identify Oswald in a lineup. But he identified him after Eddy was killed by gunshot.
2. Age of witnesses? Irrelevant, ridiculous argument. Homicides, accidents and suicides are irrespective of age. Duh.
3. Universe of material witnesses? Realistically, there were approximately 1,400. But even assuming an impossible 25,000, the probability of 76 unnatural deaths is 1 in 500. The probability of 46 homicides is 1 in 265,000.
4. Witnesses were self-selected, not random? Of course they were not a random group. They are material JFK witnesses who died unnaturally at much higher rates than the general population.
5. Relevance of witnesses? Fifty (50) were relevant enough to be called to testify: Twenty-five testified at the Warren Commission. The others died unnaturally or suspiciously shortly before their scheduled testimony at the Garrison/Clay Shaw trial, Senate Intelligence Hearings and HSCA.
6. Use of Poisson Distribution to calculate the probabilities? It’s used to calculate the probabilities of rare events -like homicides.
7. London Times actuary? Calculation confirmed in two ways.
8. London Times Legal Manager? Debunked. No one at the Times could recall the actuary’s name?
9. HSCA statistician analysis? Debunked. Did not consider even one of 20 HSCA prospective witness deaths – and scores of others.

HSCA Obfuscation

The House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) claimed that the number of material witnesses was unknowable and dismissed the calculation as invalid. But as stated above, in four JFK investigations (Warren, Garrison, Senate, HSCA) from 1964-77, there were 50 unnatural deaths (6.7%) out of approximately 800 material witnesses who were called to testify.

The HSCA made the following errors of omission:
1) noted just 21 of 100+ suspicious deaths (76 were unnatural: 44 homicides, 22 accidents, 10 suicides)
2) did not run a sensitivity analysis of probabilities for various witness and mortality rate assumptions
3) totally ignored unnatural, weighted mortality rates in calculating the probability of unnatural deaths.
4) did not calculate the probability of 10 WC homicides in 3 years: (ZERO) 1 in 31,000 TRILLION (3.24E-17)
5) did not use the POISSON distribution function to calculate probabilities.
6) did not calculate the probability of 76 unnatural deaths for 1,400 witnesses (1964-77): ZERO
7) ignored the fact that 10 homicides for 552 WC witnesses (1 in 55) is 100 times the national rate

25,000 Witnesses?
Warren Commission apologists claim that 25,000 witnesses were interviewed. That is a gross exaggeration. How many had inside information? How were they material? Where is the list? According to the reference “Who’s Who In the JFK Assassination” approximately 1400 material witnesses were connected in any way to the assassination. The spreadsheet database includes 110 material witness deaths. Even assuming there were 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 265,000 of 46 homicides in the 14 years following the assassination. But this is a conservative estimate since there were 76 unnatural deaths. Assume 25 of the 30 “accidents” and “suicides” were really homicides. The probability of at least 71 homicides is 6.16-16 (1 in 1500 TRILLION). So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

I began analyzing JFK witness death probabilities in 2003. This was my initial post on the Democratic Underground. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104×6304
The analysis has been greatly enhanced over the last 6 months and is referenced in “Hit List” by Richard Belzer and David Wayne. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/

You want to see ….
the witnesses?
their relevance?
the investigations they were called to testify in?
their bios?
their Warren Commission testimony?
the calculations for various assumed times, deaths, mortality rates?
the mathematical proof of a conspiracy?

Spreadsheet Database: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1
Warren Commission witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=22
Calculation sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=0
Sensitivity analysis tables for witness deaths over 1, 3 and 14 years, for three mortality rates. for 552 Warren Commission and 1400 material witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=23
Warren Commission, Garrison and HSCA witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=14
1964-1978 Annual and Cumulative Probabilities of Unnatural Deaths: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=16

Investigation Witnesses: Convenient Deaths

Warren Commission (1964) (testified)
6401 WARREN REYNOLDS
6402 DOMINGO BENAVIDES
6507 HAROLD RUSSELL
6512 WILLIAM WHALEY
6601 Earlene Roberts
6601 KAREN CARLIN
6602 ALBERT BOGARD
6606 FRANK MARTIN
6608 LEE BOWERS, JR.
6611 JAMES WORRELL
6701 JACK RUBY
6808 Philip Geraci
6901 BUDDY WALTHERS
7008 Bill Decker
7101 Edward Voebel
7201 HALE BOGGS
7205 J. EDGAR HOOVER
7501 Allen Sweatt
7505 ROGER CRAIG
7509 EARLE CABELL
7703 GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT
7704 Robert Alan Surrey
7708 ALAN BELMONT
7708 JAMES CADIGAN
7901 Billy Lovelady

Garrison (1967-69); Senate (1975) (testimony sought but died)
6702 DAVID FERRIE
6702 Eladio Del Valle
6804 Hiram Ingram
6805 Nicholas Chetta
6808 Philip Geraci *
6901 Henry Delaune
6901 BUDDY WALTHERS *
6907 Clyde Johnson
7312 Richard Cain
7401 Dave Yaras
7402 J.A. Milteer
7408 CLAY SHAW
7505 ROGER CRAIG *
7507 Sam Giancana
7509 EARLE CABELL *
7608 JOHNNY ROSELLI
7706 REGIS KENNEDY

HSCA (testimony sought but died)
7606 William Harvey
7608 JOHNNY ROSELLI *
7701 William Pawley
7703 Carlos Prio Soccaras
7703 Charles Nicoletti
7703 GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT *
7704 Robert Alan Surrey *
7706 REGIS KENNEDY *
7706 LOUIS NICHOLS
7708 JAMES CADIGAN *
7708 ALAN BELMONT *
7710 DONALD KAYLOR
7710 J.M. ENGLISH
7711 MANUEL ARTIME
7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN
7801 Clint “Lummie” Lewis
7808 DAVID MORALES
7809 JOHN PAISLEY
7809 Thomas Karamessines
8205 James Weston (testified)

 

JFK Witness Deaths: Calculating the Probabilities

JFK Witness Deaths: A Guide to the Probability Calculations

Richard Charnin
May 27, 2013

An actuary engaged by London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds against 18 JFK material witness deaths from Nov. 1963 to Feb. 1967. Unfortunately, the actuary could not be identified and interviewed since no one at the Sunday Times could recall his or her name.

The House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) claimed that the number of material witnesses was unknowable and dismissed the calculation as invalid. But exactly 552 witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, a subset of approximately 1400 material witnesses.

The actuary’s 100,000 to 1 odds for 18 deaths in three years is confirmed assuming:
1- 552 Warren Commission witnesses and 0.000542 national unnatural mortality rate.
2- 2479 in the WC index and 0.000121 JFK-weighted unnatural mortality rate.

Given the 0.000062 annual national homicide rate in 1963 and three year period, the probability of
1- 10 homicides among 552 Warren Commission witness is 1 in 31,000 trillion.
2- 15 homicides among 2479 in the WC index is 1 in 200,000 trillion.
In fact, the actuary’s odds are conservative. There were at least 40 unnatural witness deaths in the three years following the assassination.

The JFK Witness Spreadsheet Database includes 110 material witnesses, of which at least 76 were unnatural deaths. The sensitivity analysis tables display unnatural death probabilities for 552 Warren Commission and 1400 material witnesses (based on unnatural, weighted and homicide mortality rates) over 1,3 and 14 year time intervals.

According to the reference Who’s Who In the JFK Assassination approximately 1400 material witnesses were connected in any way to the assassination. At least 76 died unnaturally. Given the unnatural weighted mortality rate (0.000153), the probability is ZERO (4.7E-77).

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming there were 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 265,000 of 46 witness homicides in the 14 years following the assassination. But this is a conservative estimate since it is based on 46 of 76 unnatural deaths. If 25 of the 30 “accidents” and “suicides” were really homicides, the probability is 6.16-16 (1 in 1500 TRILLION). But some heart attacks may have been induced. Assuming 100 homicides, the probability is 1.8E-34 (less than 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION). So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

There were at least 50 unnatural and suspicious deaths of approximately 800 witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, Garrison trial and HSCA. Nearly half of the 110 witnesses in the database either testified (25 at the Warren Commission) or died suspiciously shortly before they were due to testify: 12 at the 1969 Garrison/Shaw trial, 5 at the 1975 Senate Intelligence hearings and 20 at the 1977 HSCA (including 7 top FBI officials in June-November 1977). The probability is 2.9E-54, or 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

The HSCA made the following errors:
1) misstated the actuary’s method of calculation
2) noted 21 witnesses, but there were at least 46 homicides, 22 accidents, 8 suicides, 34 suspicious
3) did not consider unnatural and suspicious deaths of HSCA witnesses just prior to their scheduled testimony
4) did not run a sensitivity analysis of probabilities for various witness and mortality rate assumptions
5) ignored unnatural, weighted mortality rates in calculating the probability of unnatural deaths.
6) did not use the POISSON distribution function to calculate probabilities
7) did not calculate probability of 10 WC homicides in 3 years: 1 in 31,000 TRILLION
8) ignored the fact that 10 homicides in 3 years of 552 WC witnesses was 100 times the national rate
9) did not calculate the ZERO probability of 76 unnatural deaths for 1,400 witnesses (1964-77)
10) did not calculate the probability of 76 unnatural deaths for an impossible 25,000 witnesses: 1 in 450

The HSCA succeeded in misinforming the public by falsely claiming that the actuary’s calculation was invalid and therefore did not prove a conspiracy.

The Poisson Distribution calculates the probabilities of rare events over time.

The key to calculating the probability of a given number (n) of unnatural deaths occurring in a given group (N) in a given time period (T) is to recognize that it is based on the difference between expected and actual unnatural deaths. The larger the discrepancy between the actual observed and expected number of deaths, the lower the probability.

These are the relevant probability input parameters:
N= total number of witnesses
n= number of observed unnatural deaths
T= time period in years
R= unnatural mortality rate

The published unnatural mortality rates are:
homicide 0.000062 (in 1963)
suicide 0.000107
accident 0.000359
Unknown 0.000014
Total 0.000542 (unweighted rate)

The unnatural mortality rates used in the probability calculations are:
1) 0.000542 total unweighted rate (national rate – conservative)
2) 0.000154 weighted average rate (based on 76 JFK witness unnatural deaths)
3) 0.000062 homicide rate (assumes suicides and accidents were actually homicides)

Probability of 14 Warren Commission witness homicides from 1964-77
P(n) = E^n * exp(-E)/n! : Poisson probability formula
E = 0.479 = N*T*R = 552*14*0.000062 : EXPECTED number of homicides

P(n) = POISSON (n, E, false): probability of EXACTLY n homicides
P(14) = 2.39E-16 = Poisson (14, 0.479, false): probability of EXACTLY 14 homicides

P(>= n) = 1 – POISSON (n-1, E, true): probability of AT LEAST n homicides
P(>=14) = 1 – Poisson (13, 0.479, true): probability of AT LEAST 14 homicides
P(>=14) = 4.44E-16 = 1 in 2,251,799,813,685,248
P = 1 in 2251 TRILLION

Of the 76 unnatural deaths in the JFK Witness Spreadsheet Database, there are 44 homicides, 10 suicides and 22 accidents. The weighted unnatural mortality rate is calculated as:
R = 0.000154 = (44 * 0.000062 + 10 * 0.000107 + 22 * 0.000359) / 76

The unweighted unnatural rate results in virtually ZERO probabilities. But since the JFK-related deaths were mostly homicides, the weighted average rate is a theoretically superior rate to use for the probability calculations – and results in significantly lower probabilities than the unweighted (national) rate. But even the weighted rate is too high, since many witness “suicides” and “accidental” deaths were clearly homicides. If all of the unnatural deaths were in fact homicides, the probabilities are at their lowest.

Practically speaking, since the unweighted rate produces zero probabilities for both the Warren Commission (552) and material witness(1400) categories, it is unnecessary to use weighted average and homicide rates to calculate the lower probabilities. But they were calculated in order to illustrate 1) the implausible ratio of homicides in the total witness mix, and 2) the inflating effects of “suicides” and “accidental” deaths in the probability calculations.

Probability of AT LEAST 10 Warren Commission unnatural witness deaths over 3 years (0.90 expected:)
1) unweighted: 4.15E-08 (1 in 24 MILLION)
2) weighted (0.000156): 2.8E-13 (1 in 3.5 TRILLION)
3) homicide: 3.24E-17 (1 in 31,000 TRILLION)

Probability of 39 unnatural deaths of 1,400 material witnesses over 3 years (2.28 expected):
1) unweighted: 4.3E-34 (ZERO)
2) weighted (0.000137): 2.1E-56 (ZERO)
3) homicide: 3.90E-72 (ZERO)

Probability of 76 unnatural deaths of 1,400 material witnesses over 14 years (10.62 expected):
1) unweighted: 1.28E-38 (ZERO)
2) weighted (0.000153): 7.68E-77 (ZERO)
3) homicide:(0.000062) 4.27E-106 (ZERO)

Warren Commission apologists claim (without proof) that the universe of material witnesses far exceeds 1,400. For an extremely implausible 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 100 unnatural deaths (weighted) over 14 years is 1 in 100 MILLION).

That’s all there is to it.

 

JFK Assassination: A Probability Analysis of Warren Commission Witness Unnatural Deaths

JFK Assassination: A Probability Analysis of Warren Commission Witness Unnatural Deaths

Richard Charnin
April 24, 2013
Updated: May 9, 2013

This probability analysis focuses on the 25 unnatural and suspicious deaths of 552 Warren Commission witnesses. It covers the first three years after the assassination and the 14 year period from 1964-1977. The 25 deaths are a subset of at least 110 JFK-related witnesses who died unnaturally or suspiciously that are included in the JFK witness spreadsheet database.

This is a table of Warren Commission witnesses who died unnaturally or suspiciously in 1964-1977.

At least sixteen of the WC witness deaths were unnatural: 8 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 6 accidents, 1 suicide. Three homicides were were officially suicides: Roger Craig supposedly shot himself after surviving several attempts on his life. George De Morenschildt supposedly shot himself the same day he was called to give testimony at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Albert Bogard supposedly committed suicide from carbon monoxide. He was badly beaten after giving testimony. The six accidents were also most likely homicides.Jack Ruby and Frank Martin had sudden cancers within one month after being diagnosed. Edward Voebel, a classmate of Oswald, died from a mysterious blood clot. The others (3 heart attacks and 4 deaths from natural causes) were suspicious; some were due to testify.

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

The actuary’s 100,000 to 1 odds for 18 unnatural witness deaths in 3 years is confirmed assuming:
1- 552 Warren Commission witnesses and 0.000542 national unnatural mortality rate.
2- 2479 in the WC index and 0.000121 JFK-weighted unnatural mortality rate.

Given the 0.000062 annual national homicide rate in 1963 and three year period, the probability of
1- 10 homicides among 552 Warren Commission witness is 1 in 31,000 trillion.
2- 15 homicides among 2479 in the WC index is 1 in 200,000 trillion.

The mathematical proof closes the book on those who still promote the fiction that Oswald was the lone assassin. The few remaining defenders of the Warren Commission’s Magic Bullet Theory have tried mightily for nearly 50 years to dismiss the mathematical significance of the mysterious deaths of JFK-related witnesses – starting with Ruby shooting Oswald. After all, a “clean-up” operation would only occur in a conspiracy. Of course, Warren Commission apologists claim that Oswald was a lone nut who acted alone. But these “lone-nutters” must know that dead men like Jack Ruby (“sudden cancer”) and dead women like reporter Dorothy Kilgallen (“suicide”) tell no tales.

The basis of the lone nut “argument” has been to claim that 1) the dead witnesses were of minor or no importance and that 2) the universe of total witnesses was ultimately unknowable. But they ignore the fact that the Warren Commission considered the witnesses important enough to have them testify.

The “universe” of 552 Warren Commission witnesses is obviously a known quantity. Therefore, given the actual number and cause of the unnatural and suspicious deaths (and corresponding mortality rates), we have all the information needed to calculate the probability that they would occur in a given time interval. But the 25 Warren Commission witnesses are just one part of the story.

At least 50 of the 110 witnesses listed in the database of unnatural and suspicious deaths were called to testify in four investigations and were obviously relevant: 25 testified at the Warren Commission, 12 were sought by prosecutor Jim Garrison at the Clay Shaw trial, 4 by the Senate Intelligence Committee, 20 by the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Ten witnesses were called in two investigations. Of the 110, 76 died unnaturally (homicides, suicides, accidents); the rest were highly suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc. Given the 0.000168 weighted average unnatural mortality rate, the probability that 50 witnesses would meet unnatural deaths (assuming 800 total witnesses in the four investigations) is 3.0E-52 (less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION). To be conservative, assume the 0.000542 unweighted unnatural mortality rate. The probability is less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION.

In this video, Mark Lane, famous author/investigator of several books on the assassination, interviews Penn Jones, an independent researcher of JFK witness deaths.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 total witnesses, at least 16 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature. The authors cite my probability analysis as background information.

The Warren Commission witnesses who testified comprise a subset of approximately 1400 material witnesses who were related in any way to the assassination (police, reporters, eyewitnesses, FBI officials, CIA contacts, anti-Castro Cubans, Ruby and Oswald contacts, etc.). A comprehensive analysis is provided in Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary.

This graph shows the long-term trend in the U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000 (0.000062 is used in the homicide probability calculation).

1964-1966
There were 11 suspicious deaths of Warren Commission witnesses: 3 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 1 suicide, 3 motor accidents, 2 sudden cancers, 1 heart attack. Consider just the 8 official unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents and suicide). The weighted average mortality rate is 0.000179. The probability is 1 in 910 MILLION.

The weighted unnatural mortality rate (WR) is defined as
WR = Sum (r(i) * n(i)) / N, where i=1,3 and N=n(1)+n(2)+n(3),
r(1)=suicide rate,n(1)= suicides;
r(2)=homicide rate, n(2)= homicides;
r(3)=accident rate, n(3)= accidents

Assuming the 8 deaths were homicides,the probability is 1 in 3.6 TRILLION. But the two sudden cancers were likely homicides. If the 10 UNNATURAL deaths were homicides, the probability is 1 in 31,000 TRILLION. This is in the same ballpark as the actuary’s 1 in 100,000 TRILLION ODDS of 18 material witness deaths in three years.

1964-1977
There were 25 suspicious deaths of Warren Commission witnesses. Sixteen (16) died unnaturally: 9 homicides, 1 suicide, 6 accidental. Only 1-2 unnatural deaths would normally be expected over the 14 year period. Using the weighted 0.000176 mortality rate, the probability is 1 in 500 BILLION.

1400 JFK-related witnesses

In 1964-1977, at least 76 material witnesses died unnaturally (46 homicides, 8 suicides, 22 accidental). Applying the total unnatural mortality rate (0.000542) the probability is 1.3E-38. That is less than ONE in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Using the actual observed weighted unnatural rate (0.000163), the probability of 76 unnatural deaths is 4.1E-77. That is less than ONE in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming there were 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 265,000 of 46 witness homicides in the 14 years following the assassination. But this is a conservative estimate since it is based on 46 of 76 unnatural deaths. If 25 of the 30 “accidents” and “suicides” were really homicides, the probability is 6.16-16 (1 in 1500 TRILLION). But some heart attacks may have been induced. Assuming 100 homicides, the probability is 1.8E-34 (less than 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION). So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

To put the magnitude of the numbers in context, consider that there are 60 TRILLION TRILLION (6E25) hydrogen atoms in a quart of water, approximately 700,000 TRILLION (7E17) grains of sand on the earth and 300 BILLION TRILLION (3E23) stars in the universe.

The probability of exactly n deaths among N witnesses over T years given mortality rate R is calculated using the Poisson spreadsheet function:
P (n) = Poisson (n, N*T*R, false)

The probability of at least n deaths is
P (n) = 1 – Poisson (n-1, N*T*R, true)

The probability of at least 14 Warren Commission homicides in the 14 year period (0-1 expected) is
P (>=14) = 1- Poisson (13,552*14*0.000062, true)
P = 1 in 2,251,799,813,685,248 (1 in 2251 trillion)

 

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination

Richard Charnin
April 18, 2013

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature.

There is no conjecture here, just the facts surrounding fifty mysterious witness deaths presented in an easy-to-read format. Warren Commission apologists are reduced to irrelevancy; the proof of conspiracy is overwhelming and beyond any doubt. The authors cite my probability analysis as background information.

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

The actuary’s odds are confirmed assuming:
1- 552 Warren Commission witnesses and 0.000542 national unnatural mortality rate.
2- 2479 in the WC index and 0.000121 JFK-weighted unnatural mortality rate.
Given the 0.000062 annual national homicide rate in 1963 and three year period, the probability of
1- 10 homicides among 552 Warren Commission witness is 1 in 31,000 trillion.
2- 15 homicides among 2479 in the WC index is 1 in 200,000 trillion.

In this video, Mark Lane, famous author/investigator of several books on the assassination, interviews Penn Jones, an independent researcher of JFK witness deaths.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. A comprehensive probability analysis shows that the actuary’s odds were conservative. There were many more than 18 suspicious deaths.

The proof is in the post Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary which links to the JFK Witness Database Spreadsheet Model.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 14 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

There were approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses. In 1964-1977, at least 76 died unnaturally (homicide, suicide, accidental, unknown) and 34 deaths were suspiciously timed heart attacks, cancers, etc. Normally 11 unnatural deaths would be expected.

Some have questioned the relevance of the unnatural and suspicious witness deaths related to the assassination. Of the 110 witnesses in the spreadsheet database, 25 testified at the Warren Commission, 12 were sought or testified at the Clay Shaw trial by prosecutor Jim Garrison, 4 by the Church Senate Committee, 20 by the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Ten testified or were sought by two of the investigations. Therefore, at least 51 of the 110 witnesses in the database are indisputably relevant. What are the odds that 50 of 800 witnesses called to testify in the four investigations would meet unnatural deaths?
1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

The probability of exactly n deaths among N witnesses over T years given mortality rate R is calculated using the Poisson function: P (n) = Poisson (n, N*T*R, false)

The probability of at least n deaths is P (n) = 1- Poisson (n-1, N*T*R, true)

The following table displays the unnatural cause of death and corresponding mortality rate, expected number of deaths among the 1400 JFK witnesses, the actual number of deaths, and the probability.

Cause……..rate; expected; actual; probability
suicide……. 0.000107; 2.1; 7; 1 in 170
homicide…. 0.000062; 1.2; 40; 1 in 1 BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION
accidental.. 0.000359; 7.0; 23; 1 in 2.3 MILLION
unknown… 0.000014; 0.3; 5; 1 in 5 THOUSAND

TOTAL 0.000542; 10.6; 70; 1 in 700 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION

Assuming 1400 JFK-related witnesses and the above mortality rates, the probability of at least
- 15 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination: 1 in 167 TRILLION.
- 33 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years: less than 1 in 100 TRILLION TRILLION.
- 70 UNNATURAL deaths from 1964-77: 1 in 700 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.
- 40 HOMICIDES from 1964-77: 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming there were 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 265,000 of 46 witness homicides in the 14 years following the assassination. But this is a conservative estimate since it is based on 46 of 76 unnatural deaths. If 25 of the 30 “accidents” and “suicides” were really homicides, the probability is 6.16-16 (1 in 1500 TRILLION). But some heart attacks may have been induced. Assuming 100 homicides, the probability is 1.8E-34 (less than 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION). So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000 (0.000062 is used in the homicide probability calculation).

Warren Commission – 552 witnesses
In 1964-77 there were at least 16 unnatural deaths.
Applying the 0.000176 weighted unnatural mortality rate, the probability is 1 in 500 BILLION.

In the 3 years following the assassination, there were at least 10 unnatural deaths.
Applying the 0.000156 weighted unnatural rate, the probability is 1 in 3.5 TRILLION.
If the 10 deaths were all HOMICIDES, then using the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability is 3.2E-17 or 1 in 31,000 TRILLION.

 

Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Richard Charnin
Feb. 25, 2013
Updated: June 13, 2013

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. Burt Lancaster and Robert Ryan played CIA operatives involved in the plot. They were resisted in their efforts to have the film made by mainstream Hollywood producers. The movie reveals how Kennedy’s progressive agenda and peace initiatives were a threat to the establishment. He refused to invade Cuba, was seeking detente with the Soviet Union, planned to pull all troops out of Viet Nam by 1965, break up the CIA, eliminate the Federal Reserve and promoted the civil rights movement. Congress passed the Test Ban Treaty a few months before the assassination. In other words, he was doing his job.

At the end of the film, it was revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination. as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin.

There has been much controversy about the actuary’s calculation. Apparently, no one at the Sunday Times even remembers the actuary’s name. And even more strange, the Times legal manager did not provide the 1977 House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) the actuary’s calculation assumptions or methodology. He claimed that the problem was not clearly defined and therefore the calculation of the odds was suspect. The HSCA compounded the obfuscation when their statistician claimed that the witness universe was unknowable and therefore the actuary’s calculation was not valid (see below).

The actuary’s 100,000 to 1 odds for 18 deaths in three years is confirmed assuming:
1- 552 Warren Commission witnesses and 0.000542 national unnatural mortality rate.
2- 2479 in the WC index and 0.000121 JFK-weighted unnatural mortality rate.

Given the 0.000062 annual national homicide rate in 1963 and three year period, the probability of
1- 10 homicides among 552 Warren Commission witness is 1 in 31,000 trillion.
2- 15 homicides among 2479 in the WC index in 3 years is 1 in 200,000 trillion.

In fact, there were more than 18 suspicious deaths in the three years following the assassination. The actuary did not include Oswald and Ruby – and at least 20 others. The JFK witness spreadsheet database shows there were at least 46 suspicious deaths in the three years; at least 39 were unnatural (homicide, accident, suicide, unknown).

There are 110 material witnesses who died unnaturally or suspiciously in the database (researchers claim there were many more). Of the 110 deaths, 76 were unnatural (46 homicides, 22 accidents, 8 suicides) The other 34 were a combination of suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers and unknown causes.

Probability of 39 unnatural deaths in three years:
- Using the 0.000136 weighted average unnatural mortality rate, the probability is 9E-57 (ZERO).
- Using the 0.000542 unweighted national unnatural rate, the probability is 4.3E-34 (ZERO).

Probability of 76 unnatural deaths from 1964-77:
- Using the 0.000153 weighted average unnatural mortality rate, the probability is 4.7E-77 (ZERO).
- Using the unweighted rate (0.000542) the probability is 1.3E-38 (ZERO).

Some have questioned the relevance of the unnatural and suspicious witness deaths related to the assassination. Of the 110 in the database, 25 testified at the Warren Commission, 12 were sought at the Clay Shaw trial by prosecutor Jim Garrison, 4 by the Church Senate Committee, 20 by the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Of the 61 total, 10 were sought by two of the four groups. Therefore, at least 51 witnesses in the database are indisputably relevant.

In the four JFK investigations (Warren, Garrison, Senate, HSCA) from 1964-77, there were 50 unnatural deaths (6.7%) out of approximately 800 material witnesses who were called to testify. Assuming the conservative 0.000542 national unnatural mortality rate , the probability of these deaths occurring by chance is less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION. Assuming the 0.000153 JFK-witness weighted unnatural mortality rate , the probability is less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming there were 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 265,000 of 46 witness homicides in the 14 years following the assassination. But this is a conservative estimate since it is based on 46 of 76 unnatural deaths. If 25 of the 30 “accidents” and “suicides” were really homicides, then the probability of 71 homicides is 6.16E-16 (1 in 1500 TRILLION). So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

Perhaps the problem is better illustrated if we ask: How many unnatural deaths are required in the 14 year period (assuming 1400 material witnesses) to obtain a probability of less than 1% (ONE in ONE HUNDRED)? This would meet the definition of beyond a reasonable doubt. The answer is 18. How many would return a probability of ONE in ONE THOUSAND? The answer is 22. As the number of deaths increase, the probability rapidly approaches ZERO.

HSCA statistical expert Jacqueline Hess testified that the actuarial calculation was “invalid” due to the “impossibility” of defining the “universe” of material witnesses. Her dismissal of the odds was a ruse (like the Magic Bullet Theory) to maintain the cover-up.

The fact is that there was a definable set of 552 Warren Commission witnesses. At least 16 died unnaturally in the period from 1964-1977. Only four would normally be expected.. Domingo Benavides was a witness to the Tippit murder who could not identify Oswald. He changed his testimony after his brother was shot and identified Oswald. Warren Reynolds was a witness at the Tippit scene. He changed his testimony after making a miraculous recovery from a gunshot wound to the head.

Of the 552 Warren Commission witnesses, nine deaths were homicides, 6 accidental and 1 suicide. If the “suicides” and “accidents” were actually HOMICIDES, then the probability of 16 HOMICIDES is 2.3E-19 (less than 1 in 1 MILLION TRILLION).

The 552 witnesses can be viewed as a subset of the approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses named in the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 16 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000 (0.000062 is used in the homicide probability calculation).

There were different categories of witnesses: 1) The 121 eyewitnesses who gave depositions to the FBI (51 said the shots came from the front, 38 from the rear, 32 were unsure), 2) the 552 interviewed by the 1964 Warren Commission, 3) Jim Garrison/Clay Shaw trial, 4) Senate Intelligence (Church) Committee, 5) House Select Committee (HSCA) and 6) the full set of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses.

Timings of the deaths make it all the more suspicious. At least 22 died within one year of the assassination. At least 16 died in 1977 (including SEVEN FBI officials) just before they were due to testify at HSCA. Using this information, we can calculate probabilities of these unnatural, suspicious deaths for each witness category.

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation Into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination is a comprehensive study by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (published April 2013).

The following graph displays the probability of a range of unnatural deaths for 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-1977. The probability declines to ZERO at 12 deaths.

But even the “natural” deaths were suspicious: heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc. Jack Ruby died just before his second trial, 29 days after being diagnosed with cancer. He claimed that he was injected with a virus.

Another mysterious death was David Ferrie who supposedly had a brain aneurysm that was ruled a suicide – the day after his release from protective custody. He had just been named as a witness by New Orleans D.A. Garrison in the Clay Shaw trial.

In spite of their efforts, the HSCA was forced in a “limited hangout” to conclude that both the JFK and Martin Luther King murders were conspiracies. Acoustic evidence indicated a 96% probability that at least four shots were fired. At least one came from the grassy knoll, indicating at least two shooters. That should have closed the book on the Warren Commission’s physically impossible, irrational Magic Bullet Theory but this 50-year old work of fiction is still presented as gospel by the mainstream media while the overwhelming scientific ballistic, acoustic, video, medical, eyewitness and mathematical evidence of suspicious deaths is ignored.

The mathematical analysis of the scores of suspicious, unnatural deaths related to the assassination is further proof of a conspiracy – beyond any doubt. This is a comprehensive spreadsheet database of suspicious unnatural witness deaths, probability calculations, Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial and HSCA witnesses.

The London Times

In a response to a letter from the 1977 House Select Committee on Assassinations, London Sunday Times Legal Manager Anthony Whitaker wrote: Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times editorial staff after the first edition – the one which goes to the United States – had gone out, and later editions were amended. There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material.

The actuary’s identity was hardly material? It was and still is very material. Only the actuary could speak to his interpretation of the problem and method of calculation. And no one on the editorial staff remembered his name? Really? We are supposed to believe that? Both statements made no sense; nothing else the Times legal manager said should have been taken at face value. In fact, Whitaker misrepresented what is essentially a simple mathematical problem: to determine the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths over relevant time intervals within a given population group.

His first error was to provide an incomplete and misleading statement of the problem. The U.S. population is not relevant; the number of JFK-related witnesses is. The “short period of time” is not specific. He misrepresented the essential goal of the probability analysis by not considering the frequency of unnatural deaths.

His second error was one of omission. He did not provide unnatural death mortality statistics and probability calculations used by the actuary. Was it because they would show that the calculation was plausible?

Whitaker claimed that he asked the actuary to calculate the probability that 15 names included in the Warren Commission Index would die within a “short” period. One must assume that the actuary assumed unnatural deaths and utilized corresponding unnatural mortality rate(s) in his calculation. Just because the Times manager did not specify unnatural deaths does not mean that the actuary was oblivious to the distinction. Is it just a coincidence that at least 15 Warren Commission witnesses (listed below with links to their testimony) died unnaturally and/or suspiciously. Or that others died mysteriously at convenient times just before they were due to give testimony at the Garrison/Shaw trial or at the HSCA?

It is important to note that Whitaker did not specify unnatural deaths – as he should have. In any case, his response settled the matter. The HSCA’s designated “statistical expert” just added to Whitaker’s obfuscation.

Let’s calculate probabilities for the actual number of unnatural deaths among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses:
- The probability of at least 10 deaths in 3 years is 1 in 3.5 TRILLION (2.81E-13).
- The probability of at least 16 deaths in 14 years is 1 in 546 TRILLION (2.83E-12).

HSCA Obfuscation

The HSCA designated statistical expert Jacqueline Hess dismissed the actuary’s odds as being invalid, claiming that it was “unsolvable”. Hess testified that she consulted with actuarial experts, who told her “you cannot establish any kind of universe” of material witnesses. This was pure disinformation; a universe of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses was presented in the Who’s Who in the Kennedy Assassination reference.

And there were exactly 552 witnesses who testified before the Warren Commission. At least 14 died unnaturally and 10 suspiciously from heart attacks and sudden cancers in the 1964-77 period.. The probability of 14 homicides is 1 in 4000 TRILLION.

Mark Lane debunked the Warren Commission in his book and film: Rush to Judgment.

In her list of 21 names, Hess conveniently left out scores of mysterious, unnatural deaths. She focused on five names in the list where the deaths appeared to have been natural (heart attacks). But they were still suspicious.

For example, Thomas Howard was one of three people who met in Ruby’s apartment on Nov. 24, 1963. All died in a little over a year (two unnaturally). Hess never calculated the odds.

She did not include David Ferrie and Eladio del Valle. Ferrie supposedly died of an aneurysm within days of being called as a witness by Garrison. Ferrie was held in protective custody until Feb. 21, 1967. He was found dead in his apartment the next day. Ferrie associate Eladio del Valle was also sought by Garrison. He was murdered on Feb. 21. Hess never calculated those odds, either.

What is even more unbelievable, Hess neglected the strange deaths of a dozen prospective HSCA witnesses. She gave a convoluted excuse as to why she did not include George De Morenschildt, Oswald’s friend who allegedly shot himself with a rifle the day he was notified by HSCA.

Nor did she mention the seven (7) high level FBI officials who died within a six-month period in 1977 just before they were due to testify at HSCA. The probability is ZERO. Apparently, HSCA-related deaths were immaterial. But even the 1964-1967 analysis was incomplete.

Hess claimed that the actuary concluded that on 11/22/63 the odds of 15 witnesses being dead in three years was 1 in 10 to the 29th power (1 in 10,000 TRILLION TRILLION). That is obviously an incorrect statement. The actuary calculated the odds as 1 in 100,000 trillion (1 in 10 to the 17th power). He presumably used the Poisson probability function of rare events – the perfect mathematical tool for the problem (see below). One in 100,000 trillion is E-17, or 0.0000000000000001. Hess appears to have been anything but a “statistical expert”. If she was one, she would have done the calculations herself.

So how did the actuary calculate the probability? If he assumed 560 witnesses, consisting of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission (10 died unnaturally) and 8 other JFK-related witnesses who died unnaturally, then applying the 0.000542 unnatural mortality rate, the probability of exactly 18 unnatural deaths in three years is 1.16E-17 or 1 in 85 thousand trillion. This is very close to the actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion odds! Only ONE unnatural death out of the 560 would normally be expected in the three year period.

Bugliosi’s Calculation

Famed prosecutor Vincent Bugliosi tried to refute the actuary in his book Reclaiming History: The Assassination of President John F. Kennedy. He cited Robert M. Musen, vice president and senior actuary at Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. Musen calculated the odds of 15 people out of 2,479 in the Warren Commission Index dying within a three-year period, assuming a median age of 40, to be 98.16 percent or one out of 1.2.

But there are two major problems with Musen’s calculation.
1- There are only approximately 600 names listed in the index, including George Washington and several other presidents. Only 552 were witnesses who testified.

2- Musen did not consider that the deaths were unnatural. Even assuming 2479 names, approximately 4 unnatural and 70 natural deaths from the list would be expected over a three year period. Musen must have applied an approximate .01 overall mortality rate, not the .000542 unnatural rate.The odds that at least 15 of 2479 would die unnaturally within 3 years is 1 in 46,000. The odds of 18 dying unnaturally is 1 in 3.6 million.

The Correct Method: Expected and Actual Unnatural Deaths

There were 1400 JFK-related witnesses listed in the Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson At least 15 died from unnatural causes in the first year, defying the odds. There had to be a plausible explanation; the 15 unnatural deaths could not have been just a 1 in 167 TRILLION coincidence. Only one unnatural death would normally be expected. There must have been a rationale and motivation for the deaths. What could it have been?

Of the 1400 witnesses, at least 70 died unnaturally (homicide, suicide, accidental, unknown) from 1964-1977 and another 34 were suspiciously timed heart attacks, cancers, etc. Normally 11 unnatural deaths would be expected.

Cause……..rate; expected; actual; prob
suicide……. 0.000107; 2.1; 7; 1 in 170
homicide…. 0.000062; 1.2; 40; 1 in 1 BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION
accidental.. 0.000359; 7.0; 23; 1 in 2.3 MILLION
unknown… 0.000014; 0.3; 5; 1 in 5 THOUSAND
TOTAL UNNATURAL..0.000542; 10.6; 70; 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION

Assuming 1400 JFK-related witnesses and using the mortality rates above, the probability of at least
- 15 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination: 1 in 167 TRILLION.
- 33 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years: less than 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.
- 70 UNNATURAL deaths from 1964-77: 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.
- 40 HOMICIDES from 1964-77: 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

The expected number N of unnatural deaths in time period T is approximated by a simple formula: N = R * W * T, where R is the unnatural mortality rate, W the number of witnesses and T the number of years in the study. For one year, N = 0.76 deaths = .000542*1400*1

The Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson function is useful for calculating the probability that a certain number of rare events will occur over a specified period of time. For instance, the probability that 10 customers will walk into a store from 10-11 am, given an average arrival rate of 5 per hour for that time period. Or that 2 accidents will occur at a busy intersection next month, given an average of 1 per month.

In the JFK analysis, the Poisson function is used to calculate the probability that a number of witnesses would die unnaturally (suicide, murder, accident, unknown cause, etc.) over various time periods. Historical mortality statistical tables show that the unnatural death rate R is approximately 0.000542 (1 in 1845).

The Poisson probability function is:
P(n) = a^n * exp(-a)/n!
where a = the expected number of unnatural deaths = R*N*T

For example, in a random group of 1400 individuals, in any given year less than ONE unnatural death (0.7588) is expected to occur: a = 0.7588 = R*N*T = 0.000542*1400*1

Using the expected number (a=.7588) of unnatural deaths and the actual number (n= 15) in the Poisson formula, the probability that there would be exactly 15 unnatural deaths turns out to be
P (15) = 0.7588^15 * exp(-0.7588)/15!
P (15) = 5.70E-15 = 1 in 175 trillion

The probability of at least 15 unnatural deaths is of course slightly higher: P (>=15) = 1 in 167 trillion!

Key witness categories
1 Unnatural deaths vs. suspicious natural deaths
2 Witnesses: Warren Commission (552), Shaw trial (60), HSCA (100)
3 Witnesses who died just before being called to testify (15+)
4 Approximate number of JFK-related witnesses (1400+)
5 Eyewitness depositions to the Warren Commission (121)

- The unnatural death rate is used in the probability analysis.
- ZERO probability of unnatural deaths in categories 2,3 and 4.
- 51 Warren Commission eyewitnesses claimed that the shots came from the Grassy Knoll, 38 from the Texas Schoolbook Depository and 32 had no opinion. Their recollections were dismissed by the Warren Commission as simply being “mistaken”. Parkland Hospital doctors initially reported entrance wounds to the neck and head which were confirmed years later in the Zapruder film.

Ruby’s Visitors

Ruby shot Oswald on Nov. 24, 1963. But how many know that three people who met in Ruby’s apartment that day died within one year, two unnaturally and one naturally. The probability is 1 in 300 million!

- Bill Hunter, a reporter, was shot to death by a policeman in April 1964. It was ruled an accident.
- Tim Koethe, another reporter, was killed in Sept. 1964 by a blow to the neck.
- Tom Howard, Ruby’s first lawyer, died from a heart attack in March 1965.

Mysterious FBI Witness Deaths

In 1977, seven top FBI officials died in a six month period just before they were scheduled to testify at the House Select Committee on Assassinations(HSCA). Two were accidents. If we assume only 7 FBI were called to testify and all died from natural causes within a six month period, the probability is 1 in 80 TRILLION. But the odds must be lower than that since at least two of the deaths were unnatural “accidents”.

. William Sullivan- Head of counter/espionage. Predicted his death. Hunting accident.
. James Cadigan- Document expert; previously testified to Warren Commission. Accidental fall in his home.
. Regis Kennedy- Heart attack on the day he was to testify on confiscation of home movies of assassination.
. Louis Nichols- Former #3, worked on JFK investigation. Heart attack
. Alan Belmont- Liaison to Warren Commission; Long illness.
. Donald Kaylor Fingerprint expert. Heart attack.
. J.M. English- Head of Forensic Sciences Lab. Heart attack.

Suspicious Timing of Other Witness Deaths

In 1967, David Ferrie was found dead (ruled a suicide from a brain aneurysm) in his apartment shortly after he was named as a defendant by New Orleans D.A. Jim Garrison in the upcoming trial of Clay Shaw. Ferrie was an associate of Oswald, Shaw, Guy Banister and anti-Castro Cubans. Ferrie left two suicide notes. He was held in protective custody until Feb. 21, 1967 and was found dead in his apartment the next day. Ferrie associate Eladio del Valle was also sought by Garrison. He was murdered on Feb. 21 by gunshot and struck in the head by an axe. The odds of both deaths: 1 in 453 billion: P= 1/(0.000542/365)^2. Banister, an ex-FBI agent, died in 1964 from a suspicious heart attack.

Shaw was a New Orleans businessman accused of involvement in the JFK assassination. He denied he was CIA and acquitted. He died a few years later from cancer. There was no autopsy. CIA Director Richard Helms later admitted under oath that Shaw was a CIA contractor.

Maurice Gatlin, also sought by Garrison, was a pilot who worked for Guy Banister, an ex-FBI agent in New Orleans connected to Ferrie, CIA, Carlos Marcello and Oswald. Gatlin died in a fall from the 6th floor after suffering a “heart attack”. The death was ruled an accident.

The following individuals were sought by the HSCA. All died unnaturally. Once again, the probability is ZERO…
- Charles Nicoletti, mob hit man and possible JFK shooter, was found dead from gunshots the day before he was scheduled to be contacted.
- John Paisley, Deputy Director of the CIA, was “about to blow the whistle” (shotgun ruled suicide).
- George DeMohrenschildt, a friend of Oswald with CIA contacts, had previously testified at the Warren Commission. He was found dead the day before he was scheduled to be contacted (shotgun ruled a suicide).
- Johnny Roselli, a powerful Mafia figure, was found in a drum off the coast of Miami. He told investigative reporter Jack Anderson that Ruby was ordered to silence Oswald and testified before the Senate.

Data Sources
The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson, presents vital information on each of more than 1,400 individuals (from suspects to witnesses to investigators) related in any way to the murder of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. Based on years of research, it uses a wealth of data sources and a detailed analysis of the Warren Commission’s twenty-six volumes. The volume includes entries on virtually all suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators involved in the assassination.

In Crossfire assassination researcher Jim Marrs lists 103 individuals related to the assassination who died mysteriously from 1963-1978. Lee Harvey Oswald is not on the list but should be.

Warren Commission apologists who troll the online forums jump through illogical hoops in their attempts to debunk the probability calculations. But their arguments just prove the case for conspiracy. They agree that the math is correct, but argue that the data is invalid. They claim that the 1400+ witnesses and scores of unlikely deaths were self-selected and not a random group. Of course it is not a random group – by definition. That is precisely the point.

Witnesses who were called to testify before the 1964 Warren Commission, the 1969 Clay Shaw trial and the 1977 HSCA investigation were obviously not self-selected. Neither were the 1400 in the “Who’s Who” reference; they were all related in some way to the JFK assassination – suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators. It is not just a coincidence that an impossible number of them died unnaturally. There are only a few dozen that were missed in the “Who’s Who”, but even some of these died unnaturally. The only rational conclusion is that the JFK-related witnesses had information that would lead to the perpetrators.

PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS
N witnesses, at least n unnatural deaths, T years, P odds
Warren Commission: N= 552, n=21 (exact), T= 14, P = 1 in 236 million
Who’s Who Reference: N= 1400, n>=15, T= 1, P = 1 in 167 trillion
Who’s Who Reference: N= 1400, n=33 (exact), T= 3, P = 137 trillion trillion
HSCA: N= 42 (7 FBI+ 35 others), n=7 (assume all natural), T= 6 months, P = 1 in 345 million

1400 JFK-related Witnesses
T = 3 years
p = 0.000542 = unnatural mortality rate
n = 33 unnatural, suspicious deaths; Expected a= 2.3 = p*N*T
P(33) = a^n * exp (-a)/n! = 7.3E-27
P = 1 in 137,439,196,231,656,380,000,000,000
1 in ONE HUNDRED THIRTY-SEVEN TRILLION TRILLION

To put these numbers in perspective, there are approximately 7E17 (700,000 trillion) grains of sand on the earth and 3E23 (300 billion trillion) stars in the universe.

TESTIMONY OF WARREN COMMISSION WITNESSES

Alphabetical List of Witnesses and Testimony

http://jfkassassination.net/russ/wit.htm

Jack Ruby died 28 days after being diagnosed with cancer in prison. He claimed that he was injected with cancer cells. In this press conference, Ruby claimed a government conspiracy to murder JFK.

Ruby said:
“Everything pertaining to what’s happening has never come to the surface. The world will never know the true facts, of what occurred, my motives. The people had- that had so much to gain and had such an ulterior motive for putting me in the position I’m in, will never let the true facts come above board to the world.”
Reporter: “Are these people in very high positions Jack?”
Jack: “Yes.”

 

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

May 25, 2012

Richard Charnin

It is an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. The mainstream media and their cadre of online gatekeepers use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (CT) as a derogatory label for those who seek the truth. According to the media, there are never conspiracies. But they avoid factual discussions based on the scientific evidence.

These myths are promoted non-stop in the mainstream media.
- Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.
- Bush won Florida in 2000 and had a 3 million “mandate” in 2004.
- Nineteen Muslims armed with box cutters who could not fly a Cessna, hijacked four airliners and outfoxed the entire U.S. defense establishment – while Bin Laden was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

But the media can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Scientific notation is necessary to express the extremely low probabilities of the following events. For example, the probability P that at least 15 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the JFK assassination is 0.000000000000006 or 1 in 167 trillion. There are 15 zeros to the right of the decimal point (represented in short-cut scientific notation as 6E-15).

To put the numbers in context: There are an estimated 3 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. There are an estimated 700 thousand trillion (7E17) grains of sand on earth or 7 followed by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

The probability calculations are based on the Normal, Binomial and Poisson distribution functions.

The Normal Distribution (ND) is based on a sample of observations defined by the mean (average) value and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of the observations from the mean). The ND is used to calculate the probability P that Kerry’s unadjusted 51.7% National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) share would deviate 3.4% from his 48.3% recorded national share.

The Binomial Distribution (BD) is used to calculate the probability P of n successes in N trials when the probability p of a success is constant in each trial. The BD is used to calculate the probability P that n= 86 of N=88 DRE voting machines would flip votes from Kerry to Bush (p =0.50).

The Poisson Distribution (PD) is used to calculate the probability P that a given number n of events with low probability will occur over a period of time. The PD is used to calculate the probability P that at least n JFK-related individuals out of a population of N witnesses would die unnaturally in the years following the assassination.

The probability of an individual dying unnaturally (murder, accident, suicide, unknown) in any given year is approximately 0.000542.

Unnatural JFK-related Witness Deaths

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (number of witnesses, number of unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates, time period). The Poisson function calculates the probability. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the database of witnesses, the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

JFK Witness Unnatural Deaths

This is a spreadsheet database of witnesses and probability calculations.

1964-1966
There were 11 suspicious deaths of 552 Warren Commission witnesses in the three years (1964-1966) following the assassination: 3 murders, 1 attempted murder, 1 suicide, 3 motor accidents, 2 sudden cancers, 1 heart attack. The weighted average mortality rate is 0.000156. The probability P = 1 in 3.5 TRILLION.

But the probabilities are conservative. The sudden cancers were likely homicides. Assuming the 10 death unnatural deaths were homicides, P = 1 in 31,000 TRILLION.

1964-1977
At least 14 of the 552 witnesses died unnaturally in the fourteen year period: 3 suicides, 5 homicides, 6 accidents. Four (4) would normally be expected. Given the 0.000156 weighted unnatural death rate, the probability P is:
P = 1-Poisson (13, 14*552*0.000156, true)
P = 1 in 2.7 BILLION

If the “suicides” and “accidents” were actually homicides, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, the probability of at least 14 homicides is P = 1 in 2 THOUSAND TRILLION.

Material Witnesses

In the year following the assassination, 15 of 1400 JFK-related witnesses died from unnatural causes (one would normally be expected). The probability that at least 15 would die unnaturally:
P = 6E-15 = 1-Poisson (14, 1400*.000542, true)
P = 1 in 167 TRILLION.

In the three years following the assassination, at least 40 of 1400 JFK-related witnesses died from unnatural causes (one would normally be expected). The conservative probability:
P = 2.45E-35 = Poisson (40, 3* 1400*.000542, false)
P = 1 in 40 BILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

In the 1964-1977 period, at least 70 of 1400 JFK-related individuals died unnaturally (10 expected).
The conservative probability of 70 unnatural deaths:
P = 1.4E-33 = Poisson (70, 14*1400*.000542, false)
P = 1 in 700 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

1988-2008 Election Fraud

1. In 2004, the Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS) indicated that 86 of 88 DRE voting machines in various states flipped votes from Kerry to Bush. The probability P is calculated as:
P = 1E-23 = Binomdist (86, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (87, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (88, 88, .5, false)
P = 1 in 79 billion trillion

There were massive discrepancies between the average Democratic/Republican recorded vote split (48-46%) and the 274 unadjusted state and national exit polls (52-42%). The True Vote Model (TVM) was developed before the exit polls were posted on the Roper UConn website. The 53-41% TVM split confirmed the polls.

2. In 2008, the unadjusted exit polls in 36 states red-shifted beyond the margin of error (MoE) to McCain in the recorded vote.
P = 2.4E-39 = Poisson(36,.025*50,false)
P = 1 in 400 trillion trillion trillion!

3. In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 (82.4%) of the 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Republican. Normally, an even split (137) would be expected. The probability is:
P = 3.7E-31 or 1 in 2.7 million trillion trillion!

4. The probability that at least 55 of 57 state elections would flip from the Democrats in the polls to the Republicans in the recorded vote is given by the Binomial distribution:
P = 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P = 1.1E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

5. In the 1988-2008 elections, there was an 8% discrepancy between the 274 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate (52D-42R) and the recorded votes (48D-46R). There were 375,000 exit poll respondents. Assuming an extremely conservative 1.2% margin of error, the probability of the discrepancy is:
P = Normdist(.52,.48,.012/1.96,false) = 3.51E-08 or 1 in 28 million.
Assuming a plausible 0.8% MoE, the probability is P= 1.37E-19 or 1 in 7 million trillion!

6. The exit poll margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 123 of the 274 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 3 for the Democrat. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in any state is 1 in 20. Therefore, the MoE would normally be expected to be exceeded in 7 states for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat.

The Poisson function calculates the probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 123 of 274 state exit polls in favor of the Republican:
P = 5E-106 = Poisson (123, .025*274, false)

P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000005

Microbiologist Mystery Deaths

The unnatural deaths of sixteen world-class microbiologists in the four months following 9/11 and the anthrax scare cannot be coincidental. Assuming there are 10,000 world-class microbiologists, the probability of 16 unnatural deaths in 4 months is:
P = Poisson(16,.33*.000542*10000,false)
P = 8.77E-11 or 1 in 11 billion!

9/11 Scientific Evidence vs. the Official Conspiracy Theory

To believe the official conspiracy theory (OCT) requires a belief in miracles. It requires cognitive dissonance of obvious explosive (WTC1 and WTC2) and symmetric (WTC7) destruction.

Probability calculations are not applicable as free-fall collapse is physically impossible without explosives. Ask Isaac Newton. Office fires burn at 2000 degrees below the temperatures required to melt steel. Not one steel-framed building has ever collapsed due to fires, before or since 9/11. The probability is ABSOLUTE ZERO based on historical facts and Newtonian physics.

1. NIST claims that office fires caused 3 steel-framed buildings to collapse at near free-fall – a clear refutation of Newton’s Laws of Motion.
- Free fall can only occur by an instantaneous removal of all supporting columns (i.e. a controlled demolition).
- Lateral ejection of debris can only occur from explosions – not from fires.
- Jet fuel fires burn at a much lower temperature than is required to melt steel.
- No steel-framed office buildings have ever collapsed due to fires.

2. CNN reporter Barbara Olson was a passenger on AA Flight 11 (which allegedly crashed into the Pentagon). She called husband Solicitor General Ted Olson from her cell phone and told him hijackers were armed with knives and box cutters.
- It was later disclosed that cell phones could not work at 30,000 feet.
- Olson then said that she called from a seatback phone. But according to an American Airlines spokesman, there were no seatback phones on Boeing 757 airliners.
- At the 2006 Moussaoui trial, the FBI reported there was one attempted call that lasted zero seconds (“unconnected”)from Barbara Olson to Ted Olson.

3. The BBC reported that WTC 7 collapsed at 5pm, 20 minutes before happened.
- How did the reporter know that it would collapse? Was she psychic?
- All fires burned out long before 5pm.
- Silverstein, the owner, said “pull it”.

and there is much more…

If you believe the official story (OCT), then what is your estimate of the probability of the following facts?

- William Rodriguez, a WTC janitor, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony would be ignored by the 9/11 commission.
- The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
- The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
- The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
- For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

- Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
- April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
- NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
- NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
- There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.

- Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions.
- Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
- Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
- When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
- At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

- The passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
- There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
- Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
- Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11.
- 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.

- There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11.
- Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
- Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
- There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
- There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

- The media would not investigate these facts.

 

Probability Analysis and Database of JFK Assassination Witness Deaths

Probability Analysis and Database of JFK Assassination Witness Deaths

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Feb. 25, 2013

There has been much discussion and controversy regarding the number of unnatural JFK-related witness deaths that occurred following the 1963 assassination. The mysterious deaths were a combination of homicides, suicides, accidents and undetermined origin. This analysis of the probabilities of the deaths occurring over 1-15 year time intervals has been updated in Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary.

This spreadsheet is a database of over 100 JFK-related witnesses. Most died from unnatural causes; the rest died from suspiciously timed heart attacks and sudden cancers. But only unnatural deaths are used in the probability analysis. The spreadsheet contains the date of death, witness category and connection to the case as well as detailed probability calculations.

Some have questioned the relevance of the unnatural and suspicious witness deaths related to the assassination. Of the 110 witnesses listed in the spreadsheet, 76 were unnatural deaths (homicides, suicides, accidents) and 34 were highly suspicious (heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc.). Sixty-one (61) of the 110 were called to testify: 25 at the Warren Commission, 12 were sought at the Clay Shaw trial by prosecutor Jim Garrison, 4 by the Church Senate Intelligence Committee, 20 by the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Ten were sought in two investigations, therefore at least 51 of the 110 were indisputably relevant. But the other 59 were also very relevant (see the database).

What are the odds that 40 of approximately 800 witnesses who were called to testify would die unnaturally, assuming the 0.000154 weighted unnatural mortality rate? Less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 14 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

WITNESSES

An actuary engaged by the London Times calculated the probability that at least EIGHTEEN witnesses would die within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION. The calculation is mentioned in the 1973 film Executive Action based on a book by the original JFK researcher and lawyer Mark Lane. The film starred Burt Lancaster, Robert Ryan and Will Geer.

However, at least 40 of 1400 JFK-related witnesses died unnaturally in the three years following the assassination. Assuming the conservative national 0.000542 unnatural mortality rate, the probability is less than 1 in 100 TRILLION TRILLION.

A new book by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination, is a comprehensive study of fifty witness deaths and cites the probability calculations presented here.

In Crossfire author Jim Marrs lists 103 individuals related to the assassination who died mysteriously from 1963-1978. Lee Harvey Oswald is not on the list but should be. The list was the starting point used in the analysis.

The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson presents vital information on each of more than 1,400 individuals (from suspects to witnesses to investigators) related in any way to the murders of President John F. Kennedy, Dallas Police Officer J. D. Tippit and alleged assassin Lee Harvey Oswald on November 22 and 24, 1963. It is based on years of research using a wealth of data sources and a detailed analysis of the Warren Commission’s twenty-six volumes. This encyclopedic study includes entries on virtually all of the suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators involved in the assassination.

The annual homicide rate is 0.000062. The probability of 40 JFK witness HOMICIDES from 1964-77 is 8.8E-46 or 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. To refute this canard, we calculate the probabilities assuming 25,000 material witnesses using the 0.000154 weighted unnatural mortality rate. The probability of 100 unnatural deaths in 1964-77 is 1 in 65 MILLION.

Given the national 0.000542 unnatural mortality rate, 18 unnatural deaths and three year period, the actuary had to assume approximately 555 witnesses (552 testified before the Warren Commission. The actuary’s odds were also exactly matched for 16 deaths, 1324 witnesses and 0.000154 weighted unnatural rate (JFK witness cause of death).

There were at least 15 unnatural deaths in the first year, 40 in the first three years and 76 from 1963-1978. The number of deaths spiked during the 1977-78 House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) investigations of the JFK and MLK murders. The HSCA determined that both murders were conspiracies.

The following graph of unlikely deaths among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses over the 14 year period from 1964-1977 shows that the probability of at least 18 deaths is essentially zero.

THREE POSSIBILITIES

Suppose that on Nov. 22, 1963, 1400 individuals were selected at random from the entire U.S. population. Further suppose that within one year, at least 15 would die unnaturally under mysterious circumstances. Based on unnatural death mortality rates, only 1 in a random group of 1400 would be expected to die unnaturally.

There are three possibilities. The 15 unnatural deaths were…
1) unrelated. It was just a 1 in 167 trillion coincidence.
2) unrelated. It was a scam to fool the public into believing that the assassination was a conspiracy.
3) related. There was a common factor -a connection- between them.

We can confidently rule out 1) and 2). Then if the 15 unnatural deaths were related, what was the connection?

Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, is the truth. – Arthur Conan Doyle

COINCIDENCE OR CONNECTION?

There were 15 unnatural deaths of JFK-related witnesses within one year of the assassination. In any given year, only one unnatural death would be expected in a random group of 1400. The probability that at least 15 would die unnaturally in any given year is 1 in 167 trillion (see the mathematical proof below). The odds of 15 or more natural deaths in one year in a random group of 1400 is obviously much higher: 43%.

The 15 deaths could not have been a coincidence. There had to be a connection between them. It could have been a) they were interviewed by the Warren Commission, b) scheduled to be interviewed, c) were in the commission witness index or d) related and not interviewed. If they were JFK-related, the deaths were not random. One must therefore conclude that the assassination was a conspiracy.

Lee Harvey Oswald, the alleged assassin, was shot by Jack Ruby in front of millions of television viewers on Nov. 24, 1963. He was conveniently disposed of before he could get a lawyer after claiming that he was “just a patsy”. The transcript of Oswald’s interrogation was destroyed.

In 1977, seven top FBI officials died suddenly in the six months from June to November. Two had testified to the Warren Commission; two were #3 FBI officials; two were forensic experts. William Sullivan, a #3 FBI official, died from an “accidental” gunshot while hunting, just before he was scheduled to testify at HSCA. James Cadigan, an FBI document expert, died from a fall in his home. The others died from heart attacks.

In the 3 years following the assassination, there were 40 unnatural deaths out of the 1400 witnesses (2 would normally be expected). The probability is zero (3E-30)!

In the 14 years following the assassination, there were at least 72 unnatural deaths (12 would normally be expected). The probability is ZERO (2.5E-70)

To put these numbers in perspective, there are approximately 7E17 (700,000 trillion) grains of sand on the earth and 3E23 (300 billion trillion) stars in the universe.

This graph displays a range of probabilities that there would be 1-16 unnatural deaths among 1,000-10,000 randomly selected individuals.

This graph displays a table of probabilities that 5 to 65 people in a random group of 2,000 would die UNNATURALLY in 1-15 year intervals.

THE LONDON TIMES AND THE HOUSE SELECT COMMITTEE ON ASSASSINATIONS

In a response to a letter from the 1977 House Select Committee on Assassinations, London Sunday Times Legal Manager Anthony Whitaker wrote: “Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times editorial staff after the first edition – the one which goes to the United States – had gone out, and later editions were amended. There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked ” what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time” to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize”.

That settled the matter for the HSCA which did not bother to ask U.S. mathematicians to analyze the probabilities. One must ask: Why not?

Whitaker obfuscated a very simple mathematical problem: to determine the probabilities of unnatural JFK-related deaths over relevant time intervals: 1, 3, 5, 15 years. He did so by leaving out the word unnatural.

The London Times legal manager made two fundamental errors. The first was an incomplete and misleading statement of the problem. He implicitly assumed deaths of all types, natural and unnatural. He did not distinguish between the two categories. The probability calculations must be based on the expected number of unnatural (not total) deaths.

The second error was the omission of relevant numerical data: He did not provide unnatural death mortality statistics. He failed to show the probability calculations. Why not? Was it because it would prove that the actuary’s calculation was essentially correct?

If the London Times was interested in the truth, it would have confirmed these results:

1) Probability of death of 15 named individuals in the nation
The probability is p=0.000542^15 (1.0e-49) that 15 named individuals in the U.S. population would die unnaturally in any given year, based on the mortality statistics given below. That’s 49 decimal zeros. The odds that 15 named individuals would die of any cause in one year is of course much higher: .01^15 (1.0e-30). But neither one addresses the problem.

2. Probability of 15 deaths in a random group of 1400
The probability that at least 15 out of 1400 randomly-selected individuals would die unnaturally in one year is 1 in 167 trillion (6.0e-15) or ZERO for all practical purposes. Of course, the odds that at least 15 would die of any cause is much higher: 1 in 2 (43%).

Mark Lane is the lawyer who would have represented Oswald and the author of several landmark books on the Kennedy assassination. Rush to Judgment was the seminal book which debunked the Warren Commission. In this video, Lane interviews Penn Jones, a JFK researcher who investigated the strange deaths of many assassination witnesses.
JFK-related witnesses and cause of death.
A summary of JFK deaths.
The Conspiracy Zone shows the analysis presented here.
The Men Who Killed Kennedy
The Forgotten Victims to a Genuine Conspiracy – Part 1
The Forgotten Victims to a Genuine Conspiracy – Part 2

CALCULATING THE PROBABILITY

The probability calculations are based on an approximate 0.000542 annual unnatural mortality rate for an average adult. The probability of death from any cause in a given year is approximately .01.

The probability P of at least n unnatural deaths in a group of N during a time period t is P(n)= f(n,N,t,p), where p is the probability of an unnatural death in a given year. As t increases, the probability that at least n would die of unnatural causes also increases.

Probability of an unnatural death in a given year from…
suicide….. 0.000107
homicide…. 0.000062
accidental.. 0.000359
undetermined 0.000014
Total……. 0.000542

72 JFK weighted unnatural mortality :0.000159

Injury and Death Statistics

The odds of dying (lifetime):
Accidental Injury: 1 in 36
Motor Vehicle Accident: 1 in 100
Intentional Self-harm (suicide): 1 in 121
Falling Down: 1 in 246
Assault by Firearm: 1 in 325
http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html

THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

The Poisson distribution is the perfect tool for calculating the probability of a rare event. It is used when the probability of an event (P) is very small and the number of trials (N) is large, and therefore the expected number of events (P*N) is a moderate-sized quantity.

The probability of an unnatural death in ONE year is 0.000542. The expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in one year in a random group of 1400 is 0.7588 = 000542*1400. In other words, in a given year we would normally expect approximately ONE unnatural death in the group. But there were n=15 unnatural witness deaths within one year of the assassination.

The probability P of an unlikely event is calculated in Excel as P = POISSON (n, a, type) where n is the observed number of events; a is the expected number; type is a logical value that determines the form of the probability distribution, discrete (False) or cumulative (True).

N = 1400 = number of witnesses
n = 15 = number of unnatural deaths in ONE YEAR
a = 0.7588 = 000542*1400 (expected number of unnatural deaths in ONE YEAR)

The Poisson function calculates the probability of EXACTLY n unnatural deaths, given the number EXPECTED (a):
P (n) = Poisson (n, a, false)
P (15) = Poisson (15, 0.7588, false) = 5.70E-15.
P (15) = 1 in 175,441,539,952,741 = 1 in 175 TRILLION!

The actual Poisson formula: P(n) = a^n * exp (-a) / n!
P (15) = 5.7E-15 = 0.7588^15 * exp (-.7588) / 15!

But we need the probability of AT LEAST 15 unnatural deaths, not EXACTLY 15.
The probability is 1 – the sum of the probabilities for 0,1,… 14 deaths:
The Cumulative Probability of AT LEAST n=15 deaths:
P (>14) = 1 – Poisson (14, 0.7588, true)
P (>14) = 6.00E-15 or 1 in 166,799,986,198,907

P (>14) = 1 – [prob (0) + prob (1) + prob (2) … + prob (14)]
P (X > 14) = 1 – ∑P(i) where i=0, 14
P (X > 14) = 5.98E-15
P (X > 14) = 1 in 167,145,910,421,722 = 1 in 167 TRILLION!

Probability that at LEAST n out of 1400 witnesses die unnaturally in one year
(declines EXPONENTIALLY as n increases)

n 1 in
0 1
1 2
2 6
3 24
4 132
5 892
6 7,195
7 67,346
8 718,040
9 8,593,044
10 114,073,493
11 1,663,713,384
12 26,445,366,889
13 455,051,758,699
14 8,427,523,639,942

15 167,145,910,421,722

16 3,534,913,873,810,260
17 79,526,916,217,848,800
18 1,966,037,843,894,810,000