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JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

Richard Charnin
Sept.1, 2014

The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds against 18 JFK material witnesses dying in the three year period ending in Feb. 1967 were first displayed in the 1972 film “Executive Action”.

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

The calculation has been the source of much controversy. Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. This post will prove that the calculation was correct.

In 1977, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) declared that the calculation was invalid, claiming that the universe (number of witnesses) was unknowable. Warren Commission defenders (Bugliosi, McAdams, Posner, etc.) have questioned the relevance of witness connections to the assassination.

The HSCA made a number of errors in coming to that conclusion:
1. It did not mention unnatural witness deaths – the key statistic in the analysis.
2. It did not mention the known universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses
3. It did not mention hundreds called to testify by Garrison, Church and HSCA.
4. It did not specify the identity of the actuary.
5. It did not specify the methodology used by the actuary.
6. It did not include 100+ suspicious deaths; but mentioned only 21.
7. It did not include Oswald, Ruby, George de Morenschildt, Roger Craig, etc.
8. It did not mention that 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period in 1977.

There are 122 suspicious deaths from 1964-78 in the JFK spreadsheet database (78 officially ruled unnatural): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

There were 13 unnatural deaths among the 18 material witnesses. We will ignore the five natural deaths even though they were suspicious For example, Ruby’s sudden 29-day throat cancer occurred immediately after he was granted a new trial. He claimed he was injected with cancer cells to cure a cold. He never smoked.

The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds are matched assuming 454 witnesses, very close to the number who testified at the Warren Commission.

In order to calculate the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths in a given group, we must first determine the expected number (E) of unnatural deaths. It is just the simple product of the size of the witness universe (N), the time period under study in years (T) and the average unnatural mortality rate (R):
E=N*T*R

Let H = the number of homicides, A = accidental deaths, S = suicides.
The corresponding mortality rates are HR, AR and SR, respectively.
The 13 unnatural deaths consist of:
H=8 homicides, A=3 accidents and S=2 suicides.

The corresponding average mortality rates for the period from 1964-66:
HR= 0.000061, AR= 0.000658, AS = 0.000130

The total unnatural rate (unweighted) = RT = .000842
The total number of expected unnatural deaths ET = 1.06 = 454*3*0.000842
Only one unnatural death would be expected!
But there were 13 unnatural deaths.

The weighted average mortality rate is calculated as follows:
R = (H*HR + A*AR + S*SR)/ (H+A+S)
The average weighted unnatural rate:
R = .000209 = (8*0.000061+ 3*0.000658+ 2*0.000130)/13

Now calculate the expected number of unnatural deaths in three years based on the weighted rate:
E = 0.285 = 454*3*0.000209

Finally, we use the Poisson function to determine the probability of 13 unnatural deaths in three years from a group of 454. The actuary’s calculation is confirmed.
P = Poisson (13, 0.285, false)
P = 9.83E-18 = 1 in 100,000 trillion

If the 3 accidents and 2 suicides were actually homicides, then applying the 0.000061 average homicide rate,
E= 0.083= 454*3*0.000061
P= Poisson (13, 0.083, false)
P = 1.33E-24= 1 in 750 million trillion

Note that there were at least 42 unnatural deaths of JFK-related individuals in the three years following the assassination. Assuming 1400 witnesses, the probability is E-50 or 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion!

The HSCA investigated the allegation “that a statistically improbable number of individuals with some direct or peripheral association with the Kennedy assassination died as a result of that assassination, thereby raising the specter of conspiracy”.

The committee’s chief of research testified:
“Our final conclusion on the issue is that the available evidence does not establish anything about the nature of these deaths which would indicate that the deaths were in some manner, either direct or peripheral, caused by the assassination of President Kennedy or by any aspect of the subsequent investigation.”

One, to compute valid actuarial statistics, one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, the number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

Two, in addition, for each of the individuals identified in the groups I have just listed, we would have to establish age, sex, race, occupation, geographical location, and any other extraordinary fac- tors which have to be taken into consideration in order to compute mortality rates. Again, this was judged to be an impossible job.

Three, we would need to determine the number of individuals in these categories who have, in fact, died and the number of individuals who, according to actuarial mortality rates, should have died.

We had thus established the impossibility of attempting establish through the application of actuarial principles, any meaningful implications about the existence or absence of a conspiracy. Despite the fact that an inference of conspiracy, as here postulated by the critics, did not exist, we nevertheless decided not to dismiss the cited deaths out of hand, but rather, to look more closely at the nature of certain specific deaths to determine whether or not theycould individually be considered mysterious or in some other manner a reflection of some sort of conspiracy.
http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm

M=homicide, A=accident, S=suicide, H=heart attack, N=other
Actuary-18
S 6402 BETTY MACDONALD
M 6403 HANK KILLAM
H 6403 BILL CHESHER
M 6404 BILL HUNTER
M 6405 GARY UNDERHILL
M 6409 JIM KOETHE
H 6503 TOM HOWARD
M 6509 ROSE CHERAMIE
A 6512 WILLIAM WHALEY
H 6601 EARLENE ROBERTS
S 6602 ALBERT BOGARD
O 6606 FRANK MARTIN
A 6608 LEE BOWERS
M 6610 WILLIAM PITZER
A 6611 JAMES WORRELL
O 6701 JACK RUBY
M 6702 DAVID FERRIE
M 6702 ELADIO DEL VALLE

HSCA-21
6402 BETTY MACDONALD
6402 EDWARD BENAVIDES
6403 HANK KILLAM
6403 BILL CHESHER
6404 BILL HUNTER
6409 JIM KOETHE
6501 DAVID GOLDSTEIN
6503 TOM HOWARD
6507 HAROLD RUSSELL
6511 DOROTHY KILGALLEN
6512 WILLIAM WHALEY
6601 KAREN CARLIN (Norton)
6601 EARLENE ROBERTS
6602 ALBERT BOGARD
6608 LEE BOWERS
6609 MARILYN WALLE
6611 JAMES WORRELL
6611 LEVENS
6805 NICHOLAS CHETTA
6907 CLYDE JOHNSON
7201 HALE BOGGS

 
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Posted by on September 1, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Cover-up by the numbers

JFK: Cover-up by the Numbers

Richard Charnin
Aug.29, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Key statistics in the JFK coverup:

London Times actuary
0.000 probability (E-17 or 1 in 100,000 trillion) of 18 witness deaths by Feb. 1967
13 unnatural deaths (8 homicides,3 accidents,2 suicides) in London Times actuary’s calculation
454 approximate number of witnesses used by London Times actuary for calculation
552 Warren Commission witnesses (1964-78)

Ballistics
1 shooter according to the Warren Commission
3 shots according to the Warren Commission
4 DPD officials identified a 7.65 Mauser on the 6th floor of the TSBD
6 shots fired based on HSCA acoustic analysis of dictabelt recording

Magic Bullet
2 FBI agents attending autopsy said there was no bullet exit from the back wound
5 Ford raised the back wound 5 inches to accommodate the Single Bullet Theory
7 wounds supposedly caused by the Magic Bullet

Expected Unnatural Deaths
3 expected suicides of 1400 random individuals from 1964-78; but 16 are in JFK Calc
12 expected accidental deaths of 1400 random individuals from 1964-78; but 24 in JFK Calc

Oswald in the TSBD Doorway
5 TSBD employees testified they were standing in the doorway at 12:30
6 figures in Altgens6 standing in the TSBD doorway at 12:30

Tippit shooting
10 witnesses at the Tippit scene saw or heard shots at 1:06PM. The WC said it was 1:16.
24 MPH required for Oswald to walk 0.8 miles to Tippit scene in two minutes

Wounds
22 Parkland Hospital witnesses said there was an entrance wound in the throat
22 Parkland witnesses said there was an exit wound in the right rear of the head
22 Autopsy witnesses said there was an exit wound in the right rear of the head

Suspicious deaths- groups
7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA in 6 months (1977)
13 JFK-related witnesses predicted they would be murdered
20 Jack Ruby contacts
20 of 500 Dealey Plaza witnesses
21 reported by HSCA statistician (there were at least 80 more)
30 Warren Commission witnesses (1964-78)
51 of 122 occurred in the Dallas area
64 among 500 key JFK-related individuals in the Simkin Spartacus site
67 of witnesses called or sought in four investigations (JFK Calc)

Dealey Plaza Witness Surveys
0.999999 Probability of Grassy Knoll shooter
35 in the McAdams survey (36%)
51 in the Feldman survey (61%)
52 in the Galanor survey (52%)
85 in the Adjusted survey (70%)

0.999999 Probability of JFK Limo FULL STOP (i.e. Zapruder film alteration)
33 of 59 witnesses said the Limo came to a FULL STOP (Palamara)
44 heard a double-bang of nearly simultaneous shots (Mason)

Suspicious Deaths – JFK Calc
0.000 Probability (E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion) of 34 ruled homicides among 1400+ JFK-related witnesses
34 official ruled homicides among 1400+ JFK-related witnesses (1964-78)
78 unnatural deaths officially ruled among 1400+ witnesses
84 estimated homicides based on statistical expectation of other causes of death
99 estimated unnatural deaths based on statistical expectation of natural causes of death
122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc among 1400+JFK-related witnesses
1400+ JFK-related individuals in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination

Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
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Posted by on August 29, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

Richard Charnin
Aug. 23, 2004

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is strange how Warren Commission apologists still can’t get the difference between a random and selected group. They claim that the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses is not a RANDOM group; that it is SELF-SELECTED and therefore a probability calculation of 34 official homicides from the group of 1400 over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is not valid.

The apologists have used the same talking point from their disinformation playbook years after I have explained it a number of times in various forums. To use such a convoluted argument over and over again betrays utter confusion and/or an attempt to discredit the logic of the witness unnatural death analysis.

Yes, it is true, the group of 1400 JFK assassination-related individuals is NOT a random group. AND THAT IS WHY THE ZERO PROBABILITY OF 34 HOMICIDES IN THE GROUP IS VALID. The apologists cannot or refuse to accept the logic of that simple statement of fact.

The 1400+ JFK-related witnesses are listed in Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In the group, there were 34 officially ruled homicides (actually there were quite a few more since many suicides and accidents and heart attacks were statistically proven to be inflated and therefore were actually homicides). But we will stick with the bogus 34 official homicides.

How many accidents, suicides, suspiciously timed heart attacks, and sudden cancers were likely homicides? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/jfk-witness-deaths-how-many-accidents-suicides-and-natural-deaths-were-homicides/

In a RANDOM group of 1400, only two homicides would be expected given the average 0.000084 homicide rate over the 15 year period from 1964-78. But there were 34 homicides in the JFK-RELATED group of 1400!

The key point is that JFK-related witnesses were murdered at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than would be statistically expected in a RANDOM group of 1400.

The only relevant factors in calculating the probability are

1) N, the number of JFK-related witnesses
2) n, the number of official homicides
3) T, the time period in years
4) R, the average homicide rate

That is all we need to calculate the probability of n homicides in the N-group.
We first calculate E, the expected number of homicides.
E = N*T*R = 1.77 = 15*0.000084*1400.

The probability is calculated using the Poisson function:
P=POISSON (34, 1.77, false) = 1.57E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion.

This is not a poll. It is not a correlation analysis. Motivation for any given murder is not a factor. The 34 official murders among 1400 witnesses is all that matters. The 1 in 6 million trillion trillion probability means we have proven a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, find the probability of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is still effectively ZERO assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).

Homicide Probability Sensitivity Analysis

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

 
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Posted by on August 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Did Oswald shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses: NO; Warren Commission: YES

JFK:Did Oswald shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses:NO; Warren Commission:YES

Richard Charnin
Aug. 19, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
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According to all eyewitnesses, J.D. Tippit was shot at 1:06 pm. Oswald was standing outside his apartment at 1:04, 0.8 miles from the scene of the murder. So the Warren Commission needed to add ten minutes to the time of the murder to get Oswald at the scene by 1:16. Even that’s a stretch; covering 0.8 miles in 12 minutes (4.0 mph) is very fast walking. This lie was standard operating procedure for the Commission. Witness testimony and physical evidence which proved Oswald’s innocence was ignored or altered to fit the Lone Gunman myth.

• DPD Channel 1 dispatcher Murray Jackson contacts Tippit at 1:03 to get his location but gets no response. http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/car10.htm

• Dallas County Sheriff’s Deputy Roger Craig hears of the Tippit shooting at 1:06 over the police radio. http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/WTKaP.pdf

•  Dallas policeman T.F Bowley arrives at the scene at 1:10. http://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth339132/

• According to Warren Commission exhibit 705,  immediately following T.F Bowley’s transmission at 1:10, the DPD dispatcher called over DPD Channel 1 radio that Tippit had been shot. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh17/pdf/WH17_CE_705.pdf

• Helen Markham signs an affidavit on November 22nd that she was standing at the corner at “approximately 1:06″ when she saw Officer Tippit pull over and talk to a man for a few seconds before he exited his vehicle and was shot She maintained a consistent time when she told the Warren Commision that “it wasn’t 6 or 7 minutes after 1″ http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0444-001.gif

• Barbara Jeanette Davis signs an affidavit on November 22nd that she heard two shots “shortly after 1 PM”. http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0447-001.gif

• Ted Callaway signed an affidavit on November 22nd that he heard some shots “about 1 PM”. http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0453-001.gif

• Mrs. Margie Higgins of 417 East 10th Street said that “I just looked up at the clock on my television to verify the time and it said 1:06. At that point I heard the shots”. http://thegirlonthestairs.wordpress.com/

• Sam Guinyard signs an affidavit on November 22nd that he heard some shooting “about 1 PM” near Patton and 10th Street. http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0482-001.gif

• Domingo Benavides was driving west along 10th Street when he heard the shooting. Startled by the shots, Benavides pulled his pick-up truck to the curb almost directly across the street from Tippit’s patrol car, and ducked down inside his truck. Benavides informed the Warren Commission that he remained in his pick-up truck “for a few minutes” before exiting. He then went to Tippit and seeing that he was dead used Tippit’s car radio to call for help. When he replaced the microphone he looked up to see DP T. F. Bowley, who signed an affidavit that he arrived and saw “several people were at the scene” and Officer Tippit lying on the street dead. He checked his watch; it was 1:10. He then used the officer’s car radio to call in the murder. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh6/html/WC_Vol6_0228a.htm

• On January 21st 1964, Albert Austin signed an affidavit saying that “sometime after 1:00 PM” he heard approximately two or three shots and saw a policeman lying in front of a police car on the left front side. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/austin.htm

• On January 21st 1964, Francis Kinneth signed an affidavit saying that “at approximately 1:00 PM” he heard two or three shots and saw a parked police car and a uniformed police officer lying on the ground.

http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/kinneth.htm

• Frank Cimino signed an affidavit on December 3rd that “at about 1:00 PM” he heard four loud noises which sounded like shots. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/cimino_f.htm

• During the Warren Commission testimony of Officer J. M. Poe, assistant counsel Joseph A. Ball refers to Poe entering a witness-provided description on the dispatcher transcript log at 1:22 PM. According to Poe, by the time he arrived at the scene there were already “150 to 200 people around there” and the ambulance had already left. http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/russ/testimony/poe.htm

Did the Warren Commission tell the truth about anything? It did not mention that bullets recovered from Tippit’s body were from an automatic and Oswald had a revolver; or the vast majority of Dealey Plaza witnesses who heard or saw shots from the Grassy Knoll; the Zapuder film; or the impossible Magic Bullet which entered JFK’s back 5.5″ below the collar and never exited; or JFK Limo coming to a full stop; or the “double-bang” of nearly simultaneous shots; or Oswald in the Doorway of the TSBD; or why Billy Lovelady was asked to place a black arrow pointing to himself in the black area of Altgens6; or the fake Oswald backyard photos; or the 7.65 Mauser initially identified by 5 witnesses morphing into a Mannlicher Carcano; or that there is no record of Oswald ordering or taking delivery of the Carcano, or of Oswald being a $200/month FBI informer.

And the clincher: they expect us to believe that Oswald ran from the 6th floor to the second floor lunchroom in 75-90 seconds, holding a coke and cool as a cucumber. One fairy tale after another.

 
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Posted by on August 19, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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TSBD: Oswald was “out with Bill Shelley in front”; Lovelady was ”on the steps” in front of Shelley

TSBD: Oswald was “out with Bill Shelley in front”; Lovelady was ”on the steps” in front of Shelley

Richard Charnin
Aug. 7, 2014
Updated Aug. 15, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Oswald told Will Fritz of the Dallas PD that he was “out with Bill Shelley in front” of the TSBD. The Fritz notes were not mentioned by the Warren Commission and were hidden from the public until 1997.

If Oswald was lying to Fritz, what was his motive? After all, he already had an alibi: he was seen on the second floor 90 seconds after the shooting by TSBD manager Roy Truly and policeman Marrion Baker. He was holding a coke and not out of breath. If Oswald was not on the 6th floor, why would he not be out front watching the motorcade? And how would he know Bill Shelley was out in front unless he saw him there? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/04/05/10137/

Oswald deniers say that he told Fritz he changed his shirt. Could it have been his tee shirt? But what’s the diff? The shirt he was wearing at the TSBD is the same style (open in a V pattern) as the one he was wearing at the police station. Lovelady did not open his shirt in a V-pattern to show a tee, assuming he wore a tee. In any case, Judyth Baker’s pixel analysis of the shirts proves that Lovelady cannot be Doorman.

In the Altgens6 photo, there are three men standing just to the left (and one or two steps below) Doorman. They are standing in front of the figure covering his or her eyes on the top level. Warren Commission testimony indicates that Oswald, Shelley and Frazier were standing on the TOP level (first floor) of the TSBD. Lovelady, Williams and Molina were standing on the STEPS below. Was Williams standing between Lovelady and Molina?

Except for Doorman, the faces are all obscured. But the upper right portion of the whited-out face of the figure in front is visible and appears to match Lovelady. Was his face cut out and pasted over Doorman?

Lovelady testified at the Warren Commission that he was standing on the steps of the TSBD in front of Bill Shelley. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/lovelady.htm

Mr. LOVELADY – That’s on the second floor; so, I started going to the domino room where I generally went in to set down and eat and nobody was there and I happened to look on the outside and Mr. Shelley was standing outside with Miss Sarah Stanton, I believe her name is, and I said, “Well, I’ll go out there and talk with them, sit down and eat my lunch out there, set on the steps,” so I went out there.
Mr. BALL – You ate your lunch on the steps?
Mr. LOVELADY – Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL – Who was with you?
Mr. LOVELADY – Bill Shelley and Sarah Stanton, and right behind me…
Mr. BALL – What was that last name?
Mr. LOVELADY – Stanton.
Mr. BALL – What is the first name?
Mr. LOVELADY – Bill Shelley.
Mr. BALL – And Stanton’s first name?
Mr. LOVELADY – Miss Sarah Stanton.
Mr. BALL – Did you stay on the steps?
Mr. LOVELADY – Yes.
Mr. BALL – Were you there when the President’s motorcade went by?
Mr. LOVELADY – Right

Attorney Joseph Ball took out CE 369. Buell Frazier had placed a black arrow pointing to Doorman in the white area. Lovelady was asked to point the black arrow to himself by placing it in a dark area. On very close inspection, it appears that Lovelady placed the arrow pointing to the figure whose face was cut out standing in front of Bill Shelley.
Mr. BALL – I have got a picture here, Commission Exhibit 369. Are you on that picture?
Mr. LOVELADY – Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL – Take a pen or pencil and mark an arrow where you are.
Mr. LOVELADY – Where I thought the shots are?
Mr. BALL – No; you in the picture.
Mr. LOVELADY – Oh, here (indicating).
Mr. BALL – Draw an arrow down to that; do it in the DARK. You got an arrow in the DARK and one in the WHITE pointing toward you. Where were you when the picture was taken?
Mr. LOVELADY – Right there at the entrance of the building standing on the top step, would be here (indicating).
Mr. BALL – You were standing on which step?
Mr. LOVELADY – It would be your top level.
Mr. BALL – The top step you were standing there?
Mr. LOVELADY – Right.

William Shelley testified under oath that he was standing on the TOP landing of the entrance to the TSBD. Billy Lovelady testified that he first sat on the step in FRONT of Shelley and had his lunch. If Shelley was not standing behind Lovelady, where was he? Doorman was standing on the top level (the 1st floor). http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/shelley1.htm

Mr. SHELLEY – Oh, several people were out there waiting to watch the motorcade and I went out to join them.
Mr. BALL – And who was out there?
Mr. SHELLEY – Well, there was Lloyd Viles of McGraw-Hill, Sarah Stanton, she’s with Texas School Book, and Wesley Frazier and Billy Lovelady joined us shortly afterwards.
Mr. BALL – You were standing where?
Mr. SHELLEY – Just outside the glass doors there.
Mr. BALL – That would be on the top landing of the entrance?
Mr. SHELLEY – Yes.

Buelle Frazier testified that Lovelady was standing two or three steps below him. This was contradicted when he placed an arrow pointing to Doorman who was standing on the top level. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/frazierb1.htm

Mr. BALL – We have got a picture taken the day of the parade and it shows the President’s car going by.
Now, take a look at that picture. Can you see your picture any place there?
Mr. FRAZIER – No, sir; I don’t, because I was back up in this more or less black area here.
Mr. BALL – I see.
Mr. FRAZIER – Because Billy, like I say, is two or three steps down in front of me.
Mr. BALL – Do you recognize this fellow?
Mr. FRAZIER – That is Billy, that is Billy Lovelady.

Mr. BALL – Billy?
Mr. FRAZIER – Right
Mr. BALL – Let’s take a marker and make an arrow down that way. That mark is Billy Lovelady?
Mr. FRAZIER – Right.
Mr. BALL – That is where you told us you were standing a moment ago.
Mr. FRAZIER – Right.
Mr. BALL – In front of you to the right over to the wall?
Mr. FRAZIER – Yes.
Mr. BALL – Is this a Commission exhibit?
We will make this a Commission Exhibit No. 369.
(The document referred to was marked Commission Exhibit No. 369 for identification.)

Joe Molina said he was on the uppermost step.

Mr. BALL. Where were you standing?
Mr. MOLINA. Right at the front door; right at the front door.
Mr. BALL. Outside the front door?
Mr. MOLINA. Yes, outside the front door I was standing; the door was right behind me.
Mr. BALL. Were you standing on the steps?
Mr. MOLINA. Yes, on the uppermost step.

Otis Williams was standing on the top step.
(Warren Commission Hearings, vol.22, p.683, 19 March 1964)
“I was standing on the top step against the railing on the east side of the steps in front of the building. I do not recall who was standing on either side of me.

Carolyn Arnold, a secretary working for the Texas School Book Depository, provided support for Lee Harvey Oswald’s alibi. She said that he was on the first (i.e. ground) floor of the TSBD at the time of President Kennedy’s assassination. http://22november1963.org.uk/carolyn-arnold-witness-oswald

Charles Givens was not asked where he was at 12:30. Danny Arce said was in front but “on the grass”. The others said they were inside the building on the upper floors. Jack Dougherty’s testimony is suspicious and confusing. Sarah Stanton (TSBD employee) and Lloyd Viles of the AP were not interviewed by the Warren Commission.

Links to the Warren Commission testimony of TSBD employees are given below.

Stanton and Viles were not interviewed by the Warren Commission.

Doorman’s shirt, open in a V to reveal a tee shirt, was identical to the shirt Oswald was wearing in custody. Lovelady did not wear his shirt open in a V. Judith Baker’s pixel analysis proves Doorman’s shirt matched Oswald’s shirt, not Lovelady’s. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/jfk-judyth-baker-pixel-analysis-of-altgens6-photo-proves-oswald-is-doorman/

Why did the WC not question policeman Marrion Baker about his affidavit in which he stated that he saw a man (who did not match Oswald’s appearance) on the third or fourth floor walking away from the stairwell?http://jfk.ci.dallas.tx.us/04/0426-001.gif TSBD manager Roy Truly said the man worked at the TSBD. There was no mention of encountering anyone in the 2nd floor lunchroom. According to Occhus Campbell, Vice-President of the TSBD, Oswald was seen near a small storage room on the first floor shortly after the shooting. http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-lunchroom-encounter-that-never-was.html

Proof that the AP and the FBI were actively involved in altering the Altgens6 photo is revealed in this memo: http://jamesfetzer.blogspot.com/2013/09/jfk-cartha-deloach-fbi-memorandum-and.html

The claim that Lovelady must be Doorman because he looks like him is not evidence. Doorman also looks like Oswald. But Doorman’s shirt matches Oswald’s.

- Lone nutters claim that Lovelady is Doorman because Oswald was on the 6th floor.
– Many conspiracy theorists claim Lovelady is Doorman because Oswald was on the 2nd floor. They believe that Oswald lied to Fritz.

- Lone nutters believe everything in the Warren report is true.
– Many conspiracy theorists do not believe the report but believe the Warren Commission that Oswald was on the 2nd floor 90 seconds after the shooting.

- Lone Nutters believe Oswald descended from the 6th to the 2nd floor in 75 seconds.
– Many conspiracy theorists do not consider that Oswald could have gone from the first floor to the 2nd in 15 seconds.

Questions:
– Is Jack Ruby standing outside the TSBD, obscured except for his Fedora?
– Why is every face other than Doorman obscured?
– Who other than Lovelady was standing on the top step?

Did Officer Baker and Roy Truly encounter Oswald on the 2nd floor? http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-lunchroom-encounter-that-never-was.html

Of 17 TSBD employees interviewed by the Warren Commission, 9 said the shots came from the Grassy Knoll (GK), 5 TSBD (TB), 1 Knoll and TSBD, 1 other, 1 not asked

* standing in front of TSBD
Adams, Victoria GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/adams_v.htm
Arce, Danny GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/arce.htm
Baker, Mrs. Donald GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/baker.htm
Burns, Doris GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/burns.htm
Dougherty, Jack TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/doughert.htm

* Frazier, Buell Wesley GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/frazierb1.htm
Givens, Charles not asked http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/givens1.htm
Hine, Geneva TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/hine.htm
Jarman, James Other http://jfkassassination.net/russ/m_j_russ/jarman.htm
* Lovelady, Billy GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/lovelady.htm

* Molina, Joe GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/molina.htm
Norman, Harold TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/m_j_russ/norman.htm
Piper, Eddie TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/piper2.htmSanders,
Reid, Mrs. Robert TB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/reid.htm
Sanders, Pauline GKTB http://jfkassassination.net/russ/exhibits/ce1434.htm

* Shelley, William GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/shelley1.htm
Truly, Roy GK http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/truly1.htm

 
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Posted by on August 7, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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To Believe Oswald was Not Standing in Front of the TSBD, You Must Believe that…

Richard Charnin
Updated Aug. 24, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

To believe Oswald was not standing in front of the TSBD at 12:30pm, you must believe all of the following…

1- Oswald was either shooting JFK on the 6th floor or somewhere else in the TSBD.
2- Unlike his fellow employees, Oswald had no interest in viewing the motorcade.
3- Oswald lied to Det. Will Fritz when he said he was “out with Bill Shelley in front” at 12:30.
4- Oswald lied even though he had an alibi of being seen on the 2nd floor by TSBD manager Roy Truly and policeman Marrion Baker at 12:31.

5- Fritz’s notes of his Oswald interview were hidden until 1993 due to poor record-keeping.
6- Fritz’s notes were not revealed by the Warren Commission because of administrative oversight.

7- The fact that no one claimed to have seen Oswald in front proves he was not there.
8- The Warren Commission would have allowed testimony that Oswald was in front
9- The goal of the Commission was to determine the facts, not to confirm Oswald as the lone nut.

10- The faces in the Altgens6 photo were accidentally blotted out during photo processing.

11- Judyth Bakers pixelation analysis of Doorman’s shirt compared to that of Lovelady and Oswald is bogus. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1X2eD2Wl3xSmRHTuE02ntfYkb3ES2Kuo8wl3HHzzAlD8/pub
12- Lovelady lied to WC when he said he sat down to eat lunch on the STEPS in FRONT of Shelley.
13- Buelle Frazier lied to the WC when he said Lovelady was standing a few steps BELOW him.
14- The WC asking Lovelady to point a BLACK arrow to himself in the BLACK area of Altgens6 is not suspicious.

15- Doorman “looks like Lovelady” therefore it must be him.
16- Doorman’s shirt matching Oswald’s is just a coincidence.
17- Doorman wearing Oswald’s shirt does not prove he is Oswald.
18- Doorman’s open long-sleeve shirt not matching Lovelady’s short-sleeved striped or closed long-sleeve plaid shirt proves nothing.
19- Oswald cannot be Doorman since it was decided long ago that Lovelady was Doorman.

20- Carolyn Arnold was mistaken in stating that Oswald was on the first floor of the TSBD at 12:25. http://22november1963.org.uk/carolyn-arnold-witness-oswald

21- This GIF is not evidence and should be ignored…

- It is just a coincidence that many who do not believe Oswald was Doorman also believe that the Altgens6 photo was not altered, the Zapruder film was not altered and the photos of Oswald standing in the backyard were not fakes.

Did Officer Baker and Roy Truly encounter Oswald on the 2nd floor? http://jfkthelonegunmanmyth.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-lunchroom-encounter-that-never-was.html

 
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Posted by on July 14, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

Richard Charnin
June 4, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is an interesting exercise to calculate the probabilities of suspicious deaths of 20 Dealey Plaza witnesses. The 20 are among 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database in the 15 year period from 1964-78.

The fact that they were in Dealey Plaza makes them obvious material witnesses – by definition.
Of the 20 suspicious deaths, 8 were officially ruled unnatural (2 homicides, 5 accidents, 1 suicide) and 12 were natural (5 heart attacks, 7 other).

Furthermore, 14 of the 20 witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 4 were sought to testify in the Garrison trial, 2 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

The probabilities of JFK witness deaths for various groups have been previously posted: Warren Commission, London Times actuary,Garrison/ Shaw, Church, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

View the witness list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

The probability of 8 ruled unnatural deaths assuming 300 witnesses is 1 in 1500. But a statistical analysis of the expected number of accidents, suicides and natural deaths indicates that approximately 13 were homicides, so there were 15 total homicides out of 20 suspicious deaths.

Assuming 2X the national homicide rate, let’s calculate the probabilities of 8 and 15 homicides.

For 300 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 175 trillion.
The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 700 thousand.

For 500 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 130 billion.
The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 18 thousand.

View the calculations in column “O”: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=41

The HSCA in 1979 claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination was invalid. The reason: the witness universe was unknown. But the HSCA did not consider Dealey Plaza witnesses or other defined witness groups. The HSCA would have confirmed the actuary if it did a true analysis.

The actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability is matched given 15 homicides of 385 Dealey Plaza witnesses over 15 years, assuming the average national homicide rate (0.000084).

DEALEY PLAZA WITNESSES/ PROBABILITIES
Sensitivity Analysis
(assume 2X National Homicide rate)

Hom 200..... 300.... 400....500.....600
08 6.8E-08 1.4E-06 1.1E-05 5.3E-05 1.8E-04
09 3.8E-09 1.2E-07 1.2E-06 7.4E-06 3.0E-05
11 8.8E-12 6.0E-10 1.1E-08 1.1E-07 6.2E-07
13 1.4E-14 2.1E-12 6.8E-11 9.6E-10 8.0E-09
15 1.7E-17 5.7E-15 3.3E-13 7.3E-12 8.7E-11

Dealey Plaza witnesses:
Inv: sought by (W)arren Commission, (G)arrison trial, (C)hurch hearings, (H)SCA

Date Witness …….Inv Category
7501 Allen Sweatt W POLICE
7901 Billy Lovelady W WITNESS TSBD
6901 Buddy Walthers WG POLICE
6901 Charles Mentesana – WITNESS TSBD
7109 Cliff Carter W LBJ
7801 Clint Lewis WH POLICE
7509 Earl Cabell WG CIA
6606 Frank Martin W POLICE
7502 Jack Beers W MEDIA
7402 J.A. Milteer C MINUTEMEN
6701 Jack Ruby W MAFIA POLICE
7604 James Chaney – POLICE
6611 James Worrell W WITNESS TSBD
7707 Ken O’Donnell WC JFK
6608 Lee Bowers W WITNESS KNOLL
6311 Lee Oswald – RUBY FBI CIA
7101 Mac Wallace – LBJ Shooter?
7706 Regis Kennedy GH FBI LHO
7505 Roger Craig WG POLICE
6512 William Whaley W WITNESS TSBD

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78

 
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Posted by on June 4, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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