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JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

Richard Charnin
Aug. 23, 2004

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
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It is strange how Warren Commission apologists still can’t get the difference between a random and selected group. They claim that the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses is not a RANDOM group; that it is SELF-SELECTED and therefore a probability calculation of 34 official homicides from the group of 1400 over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is not valid.

The apologists have used the same talking point from their disinformation playbook years after I have explained it a number of times in various forums. To use such a convoluted argument over and over again betrays utter confusion and/or an attempt to discredit the logic of the witness unnatural death analysis.

Yes, it is true, the group of 1400 JFK assassination-related individuals is NOT a random group. AND THAT IS WHY THE ZERO PROBABILITY OF 34 HOMICIDES IN THE GROUP IS VALID. The apologists cannot or refuse to accept the logic of that simple statement of fact.

The 1400+ JFK-related witnesses are listed in Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In the group, there were 34 officially ruled homicides (actually there were quite a few more since many suicides and accidents and heart attacks were statistically proven to be inflated and therefore were actually homicides). But we will stick with the bogus 34 official homicides.

How many accidents, suicides, suspiciously timed heart attacks, and sudden cancers were likely homicides?

In a RANDOM group of 1400, only two homicides would be expected given the average 0.000084 homicide rate over the 15 year period from 1964-78. But there were 34 homicides in the JFK-RELATED group of 1400!

The key point is that JFK-related witnesses were murdered at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than would be statistically expected in a RANDOM group of 1400.

The only relevant factors in calculating the probability are

1) N, the number of JFK-related witnesses
2) n, the number of official homicides
3) T, the time period in years
4) R, the average homicide rate

That is all we need to calculate the probability of n homicides in the N-group.
We first calculate E, the expected number of homicides.
E = N*T*R = 1.77 = 15*0.000084*1400.

The probability is calculated using the Poisson function:
P=POISSON (34, 1.77, false) = 1.57E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion.

This is not a poll. It is not a correlation analysis. Motivation for any given murder is not a factor. The 34 official murders among 1400 witnesses is all that matters. The 1 in 6 million trillion trillion probability means we have proven a conspiracy beyond any doubt.


Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, find the probability of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is still effectively ZERO assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).

Homicide Probability Sensitivity Analysis

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

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Posted by on August 23, 2014 in Uncategorized


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JFK: Did Oswald shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses: NO; Warren Commission: YES

JFK:Did Oswald shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses:NO; Warren Commission:YES

Richard Charnin
Aug. 19, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
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According to all eyewitnesses, J.D. Tippit was shot at 1:06 pm. Oswald was standing outside his apartment at 1:04, 0.8 miles from the scene of the murder. So the Warren Commission needed to add ten minutes to the time of the murder to get Oswald at the scene by 1:16. Even that’s a stretch; covering 0.8 miles in 12 minutes (4.0 mph) is very fast walking. This lie was standard operating procedure for the Commission. Witness testimony and physical evidence which proved Oswald’s innocence was ignored or altered to fit the Lone Gunman myth.

• DPD Channel 1 dispatcher Murray Jackson contacts Tippit at 1:03 to get his location but gets no response.

• Dallas County Sheriff’s Deputy Roger Craig hears of the Tippit shooting at 1:06 over the police radio.

•  Dallas policeman T.F Bowley arrives at the scene at 1:10.

• According to Warren Commission exhibit 705,  immediately following T.F Bowley’s transmission at 1:10, the DPD dispatcher called over DPD Channel 1 radio that Tippit had been shot.

• Helen Markham signs an affidavit on November 22nd that she was standing at the corner at “approximately 1:06″ when she saw Officer Tippit pull over and talk to a man for a few seconds before he exited his vehicle and was shot She maintained a consistent time when she told the Warren Commision that “it wasn’t 6 or 7 minutes after 1″

• Barbara Jeanette Davis signs an affidavit on November 22nd that she heard two shots “shortly after 1 PM”.

• Ted Callaway signed an affidavit on November 22nd that he heard some shots “about 1 PM”.

• Mrs. Margie Higgins of 417 East 10th Street said that “I just looked up at the clock on my television to verify the time and it said 1:06. At that point I heard the shots”.

• Sam Guinyard signs an affidavit on November 22nd that he heard some shooting “about 1 PM” near Patton and 10th Street.

• Domingo Benavides was driving west along 10th Street when he heard the shooting. Startled by the shots, Benavides pulled his pick-up truck to the curb almost directly across the street from Tippit’s patrol car, and ducked down inside his truck. Benavides informed the Warren Commission that he remained in his pick-up truck “for a few minutes” before exiting. He then went to Tippit and seeing that he was dead used Tippit’s car radio to call for help. When he replaced the microphone he looked up to see DP T. F. Bowley, who signed an affidavit that he arrived and saw “several people were at the scene” and Officer Tippit lying on the street dead. He checked his watch; it was 1:10. He then used the officer’s car radio to call in the murder.

• On January 21st 1964, Albert Austin signed an affidavit saying that “sometime after 1:00 PM” he heard approximately two or three shots and saw a policeman lying in front of a police car on the left front side.

• On January 21st 1964, Francis Kinneth signed an affidavit saying that “at approximately 1:00 PM” he heard two or three shots and saw a parked police car and a uniformed police officer lying on the ground.

• Frank Cimino signed an affidavit on December 3rd that “at about 1:00 PM” he heard four loud noises which sounded like shots.

• During the Warren Commission testimony of Officer J. M. Poe, assistant counsel Joseph A. Ball refers to Poe entering a witness-provided description on the dispatcher transcript log at 1:22 PM. According to Poe, by the time he arrived at the scene there were already “150 to 200 people around there” and the ambulance had already left.

Did the Warren Commission tell the truth about anything? It did not mention that bullets recovered from Tippit’s body were from an automatic and Oswald had a revolver; or the vast majority of Dealey Plaza witnesses who heard or saw shots from the Grassy Knoll; the Zapuder film; or the impossible Magic Bullet which entered JFK’s back 5.5″ below the collar and never exited; or JFK Limo coming to a full stop; or the “double-bang” of nearly simultaneous shots; or Oswald in the Doorway of the TSBD; or why Billy Lovelady was asked to place a black arrow pointing to himself in the black area of Altgens6; or the fake Oswald backyard photos; or the 7.65 Mauser initially identified by 5 witnesses morphing into a Mannlicher Carcano; or that there is no record of Oswald ordering or taking delivery of the Carcano, or of Oswald being a $200/month FBI informer.

And the clincher: they expect us to believe that Oswald ran from the 6th floor to the second floor lunchroom in 75-90 seconds, holding a coke and cool as a cucumber. One fairy tale after another.

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Posted by on August 19, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized


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To Believe Oswald was Not Standing in Front of the TSBD, You Must Believe that…

Richard Charnin
Updated Aug. 24, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
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To believe Oswald was not standing in front of the TSBD at 12:30pm, you must believe all of the following…

1- Oswald was either shooting JFK on the 6th floor or somewhere else in the TSBD.
2- Unlike his fellow employees, Oswald had no interest in viewing the motorcade.
3- Oswald lied to Det. Will Fritz when he said he was “out with Bill Shelley in front” at 12:30.
4- Oswald lied even though he had an alibi of being seen on the 2nd floor by TSBD manager Roy Truly and policeman Marrion Baker at 12:31.

5- Fritz’s notes of his Oswald interview were hidden until 1993 due to poor record-keeping.
6- Fritz’s notes were not revealed by the Warren Commission because of administrative oversight.

7- The fact that no one claimed to have seen Oswald in front proves he was not there.
8- The Warren Commission would have allowed testimony that Oswald was in front
9- The goal of the Commission was to determine the facts, not to confirm Oswald as the lone nut.

10- The faces in the Altgens6 photo were accidentally blotted out during photo processing.

11- Judyth Bakers pixelation analysis of Doorman’s shirt compared to that of Lovelady and Oswald is bogus.
12- Lovelady lied to WC when he said he sat down to eat lunch on the STEPS in FRONT of Shelley.
13- Buelle Frazier lied to the WC when he said Lovelady was standing a few steps BELOW him.
14- The WC asking Lovelady to point a BLACK arrow to himself in the BLACK area of Altgens6 is not suspicious.

15- Doorman “looks like Lovelady” therefore it must be him.
16- Doorman’s shirt matching Oswald’s is just a coincidence.
17- Doorman wearing Oswald’s shirt does not prove he is Oswald.
18- Doorman’s open long-sleeve shirt not matching Lovelady’s short-sleeved striped or closed long-sleeve plaid shirt proves nothing.
19- Oswald cannot be Doorman since it was decided long ago that Lovelady was Doorman.

20- Carolyn Arnold was mistaken in stating that Oswald was on the first floor of the TSBD at 12:25.

21- This GIF is not evidence and should be ignored…

- It is just a coincidence that many who do not believe Oswald was Doorman also believe that the Altgens6 photo was not altered, the Zapruder film was not altered and the photos of Oswald standing in the backyard were not fakes.

Did Officer Baker and Roy Truly encounter Oswald on the 2nd floor?

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Posted by on July 14, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized


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JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

Richard Charnin
June 4, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is an interesting exercise to calculate the probabilities of suspicious deaths of 20 Dealey Plaza witnesses. The 20 are among 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database in the 15 year period from 1964-78.

The fact that they were in Dealey Plaza makes them obvious material witnesses – by definition.
Of the 20 suspicious deaths, 8 were officially ruled unnatural (2 homicides, 5 accidents, 1 suicide) and 12 were natural (5 heart attacks, 7 other).

Furthermore, 14 of the 20 witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 4 were sought to testify in the Garrison trial, 2 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

The probabilities of JFK witness deaths for various groups have been previously posted: Warren Commission, London Times actuary,Garrison/ Shaw, Church, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

View the witness list here:

The probability of 8 ruled unnatural deaths assuming 300 witnesses is 1 in 1500. But a statistical analysis of the expected number of accidents, suicides and natural deaths indicates that approximately 13 were homicides, so there were 15 total homicides out of 20 suspicious deaths.

Assuming 2X the national homicide rate, let’s calculate the probabilities of 8 and 15 homicides.

For 300 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 175 trillion.
The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 700 thousand.

For 500 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 130 billion.
The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 18 thousand.

View the calculations in column “O”:

The HSCA in 1979 claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination was invalid. The reason: the witness universe was unknown. But the HSCA did not consider Dealey Plaza witnesses or other defined witness groups. The HSCA would have confirmed the actuary if it did a true analysis.

The actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability is matched given 15 homicides of 385 Dealey Plaza witnesses over 15 years, assuming the average national homicide rate (0.000084).

Sensitivity Analysis
(assume 2X National Homicide rate)

Hom 200..... 300.... 400....500.....600
08 6.8E-08 1.4E-06 1.1E-05 5.3E-05 1.8E-04
09 3.8E-09 1.2E-07 1.2E-06 7.4E-06 3.0E-05
11 8.8E-12 6.0E-10 1.1E-08 1.1E-07 6.2E-07
13 1.4E-14 2.1E-12 6.8E-11 9.6E-10 8.0E-09
15 1.7E-17 5.7E-15 3.3E-13 7.3E-12 8.7E-11

Dealey Plaza witnesses:
Inv: sought by (W)arren Commission, (G)arrison trial, (C)hurch hearings, (H)SCA

Date Witness …….Inv Category
7501 Allen Sweatt W POLICE
7901 Billy Lovelady W WITNESS TSBD
6901 Buddy Walthers WG POLICE
6901 Charles Mentesana – WITNESS TSBD
7109 Cliff Carter W LBJ
7801 Clint Lewis WH POLICE
7509 Earl Cabell WG CIA
6606 Frank Martin W POLICE
7502 Jack Beers W MEDIA
7402 J.A. Milteer C MINUTEMEN
6701 Jack Ruby W MAFIA POLICE
7604 James Chaney – POLICE
6611 James Worrell W WITNESS TSBD
7707 Ken O’Donnell WC JFK
6608 Lee Bowers W WITNESS KNOLL
6311 Lee Oswald – RUBY FBI CIA
7101 Mac Wallace – LBJ Shooter?
7706 Regis Kennedy GH FBI LHO
7505 Roger Craig WG POLICE
6512 William Whaley W WITNESS TSBD

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:

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Posted by on June 4, 2014 in Uncategorized


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JFK Calc: Questions on the Spreadsheet Analysis

JFK Calc: Questions on the Spreadsheet Analysis

Richard Charnin
April 9, 2014
Updated:June 7, 2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Warren Commission apologists invariably thrash JFK-related witness death analysis – as well as the observations of Dealey Plaza and medical eyewitnesses. Rather, they ask questions that are irrelevant and meant to distract from the facts. They don’t bother to actually read the posts, comprehend the logic or deal with the evidence.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet database includes 126 witnesses who died unnaturally and suspiciously (122 from 1964-78).

This post will present the answers to questions that should legitimately be asked on the JFK witness mortality data and calculation methodology.

1) What is the data source of the witnesses?
See Jim Marrs’ “Crossfire” (103), Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination (1400)”, Richard Belzer and David Wayne’s “Hit List” (50) and the Simkin Educational website (500). The JFK unnatural death probability analysis is cited in both Hit List
and Crossfire and in well-known JFK research blogs.

Dealey Plaza eyewitnesses and associated probabilities are based on articles by these excellent researchers: Stewart Galanor, Harold Feldman, Vince Palamara and John Craig.

2) Of the 122 total suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, how many were officially ruled unnatural?
There were 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown). But a statistical analysis based on historical accident, suicide and heart attack mortality rates indicates there were at least 84 homicides and 99 unnatural deaths.

.....Ruled Est Ruled Est
......Homicide Unnatural Total
1964... 12 19.. 19 23.. 25
1964-66 16 35.. 35 42.. 48
1964-78 34 84.. 78 99.. 122

3) Can you prove that the witnesses were relevant?
Ninety-six (96) of the 122 are listed among the 1400+ in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. Sixty-seven (67) testified or were sought in four investigations: Warren Commission (1964), Garrison/Shaw trial (1967-69), Church senate Intelligence (1975), HSCA (1976-78). The investigators must have considered them relevant or they would not have been sought to testify.

Simkin’s JFK site contains approximately 500 JFK-related biographies. Sixty-four (64) are in JFK Calc. In this group, 39 deaths (22 homicides) were officially ruled unnatural, a one in 1 trillion^3 probability. But there were 47 estimated true homicides.

Satisfy yourself. Do your homework. Read one of the above books. Run a google search of the names.I do not have to prove they were all relevant. The burden of proof is on the apologists to prove they were all insignificant and unrelated to the assassination.

4) What method is used to calculate the probabilities?
The steps are:
1) Determine the number of witnesses in the group,
2) specify the time period,
3) determine the number of unnatural deaths,
4) apply the applicable unnatural mortality rates for the period.
5) calculate the number of expected unnatural deaths.
6) calculate the probability using the Poisson distribution function.

5) Why do you claim that many officially ruled accidents, suicides and heart attacks were homicides?
Any analysis should consider the anomalous facts of each case (timing, etc.) which indicate homicide. We can estimate the approximate number of true homicides by calculating the statistically expected number of accidents, suicides and heart attacks. We use respective mortality rates for each cause of death. The official ruled number of accidents, suicides and heart attacks far exceeds the expected number. The difference between the official and expected numbers is a fair approximation of the number of true homicides. deatZJYllKTnc#gid=74

6) What is the Paradigm Shift?
It’s a new way of looking at the problem. There is no need to consider motive in the death of any particular witness. Motive is not a factor in the calculation of probabilities. The only factors are purely numerical: the total number of witnesses in the designated “universe”, the number who died unnaturally, the cause of death, and the time period under study. The 67 who were sought to testify were obviously relevant – and so were the other 55. But to analyze the relevance of a given witness is a moot point. We must consider the total number. The motive for any given death is a non-issue in calculating the probability.

7) Didn’t the HSCA statistician claim that calculation of the odds was impossible since the universe of witnesses was unknown?
Yes, but the HSCA was wrong. It did not consider groups of witnesses where the number was known: For example, 552 testified or gave affidavits at the Warren Commission (the CIA stated that 418 witnesses testified). Approximately 600 were sought or testified in three subsequent investigations.

8) Didn’t the HSCA statistician claim that the London Times actuary’s calculation of 100,000 trillion to one odds was invalid?
Yes, but the HSCA was wrong. The actuary’s math was confirmed assuming 454 witnesses given 13 unnatural deaths (8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides) in three years. The Times could have asked the actuary to calculate the probability of 16 officially ruled homicides from 1964-66 based on the average 0.000061 national rate: 1.3E-23 (1 in 70 billion trillion); or the probability of 34 officially ruled homicides from 1964-78 using triple the average 0.000084 national rate: 7.6E-17 (1 in 1,000 trillion).

9) Didn’t the HSCA investigate a number of suspicious witness deaths?
The HSCA noted just 21 deaths but there were at least 100 others. Unbelievably, 7 top FBI officials died (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) within a six month period in 1977 just before they were due to testify at HSCA! Assuming 20 FBI were called to testify, the probability that seven would die is one in 200 trillion. There were a dozen other prospective HSCA witnesses who died before they could testify.

10) Aren’t you using unproven assumptions?
The data is factual, not assumed: officially ruled unnatural deaths, government mortality statistics, specific time periods. The classic Poisson distribution is used to calculate the probabilities based on factual data. It is a straightforward analysis using public information. It is not a poll.

11) Weren’t witnesses in high risk locations?
Yes, it’s true. Fifty-one (51) of 122 deaths occurred in Dallas. Was this just a coincidence?

12) How are the witnesses classified?
There were Ruby associates,reporters, FBI, CIA, anti-Castro Cubans, mafia, police and others. Most had inside information.

13) How do you know that the timing of deaths was a factor?
Just look at this graph. Notice the spikes in 1964 and 1977. Was it just a coincidence that so many deaths occurred during the Warren Commission and HSCA?

14) Has your study been peer-reviewed?
As stated above, the analysis is cited by Richard Belzer and David Wayne in Hit List and by Jim Marrs in Crossfire. Both are major JFK assassination historical references.

Philip Stahl (“Copernicus”), a prolific author, astronomer, space physicist and mathematician, has cited the JFK-witness death probability analysis in several of his blog posts:

The analysis is available to anyone who wants to review it: JFK researchers, actuaries, mathematicians, media. Now what about McAdams, Posner, Bugliosi and the mainstream media? Not a word. Perhaps because they can’t refute the logic or the math. I asked McAdams to have one of the Marquette math professors review it. No luck.

15) Do you disagree with John McAdams’ survey that a majority of Dealey Plaza witnesses said shots came from the Texas Book Depository? Yes, for the same reasons Harold Feldman and Stewart Galanor disagree in their surveys. McAdams cooked his numbers by omission and commission.

16) You claim the Zapruder film was altered. What is your evidence?
It is based on the following facts:
First, 33 of 59 witnesses said the JFK limo came to a FULL stop; 13 said NEAR stop. The probability is ZERO that they would ALL be mistaken.
Second, the Z-film does not show even a NEAR stop.
Third, the film does NOT show Secret Service agent Clint Hill covering JFK and Jackie, or giving the thumbs down sign to the following cars.
Fourth, 11 Hollywood photography experts have concluded that the film was altered.
Fifth, the chain of custody was broken.

17) What about the controversy on the location of JFK’s wounds?
Well, 43 of 44 witnesses at Parkland and the autopsy initially claimed there was a large EXIT wound in the right rear of JFK’s head. Parkland doctors said there was an entrance wound in the throat. I won’t bother calculating the probability that they were all mistaken.

18) Do you believe that Oswald fired the shots?
No. For many reasons. Here is just one: 47 Dealey Plaza witnesses heard a double-bang of two nearly instantaneous shots. The alleged Mannlicher Carcano rifle required at least 2.3 seconds between shots. Were all 47 mistaken?
The 1…2.3 pattern
The Double Bang

19) What if your estimates of the number of material witnesses, unnatural deaths and homicides are incorrect? Wouldn’t this invalidate the results?
Not at all. No one can say what the exact numbers are. But they are surely greater than the officially ruled numbers.

The uncertainty is handled by a probability sensitivity analysis. It consists of two tables: a range of witness group size estimates vs ranges of unnatural deaths and homicides. The homicide table ranges from 1400-10000 witnesses and 34 (ruled) to 90 (expected) homicides. All plausible scenario combinations give ZERO probabilities – absolute proof of a conspiracy.

The Dallas 1964-78 homicide rate was triple the national and used in the following calculations.
– 34 officially ruled homicides and a plausible 1400 witness universe:
P= 7.6E-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion.
– 84 expected homicides and an inflated 5000 witness universe:
P= 4.0E-28 or 1 in 2000 trillion trillion.

20) What about the unnatural deaths of Dealey Plaza witnesses?
There are 20 in JFK Calc. A sensitivity analysis assuming 200-600 witnesses and 8-15 homicides is another strong indicator of a conspiracy. Assuming 400 Dealey Plaza witnesses and given the
– 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probabilities range from 1 in 15 million (8 homicides) to 1 in 60,000 trillion (15 homicides).
– 0.000253 average Dallas homicide rate, the probabilities range from 1 in 5000 (8 homicides) to 1 in 11 billion (15 homicides).

21) What do you conclude based on the JFK Calc analysis?
The answer should be obvious to anyone who has read and understood the analysis: A conspiracy has been mathematically proven beyond ANY doubt.


Posted by on April 9, 2014 in Uncategorized


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JFK Assassination: Researchers discuss John McAdams

JFK Assassination: Researchers discuss John McAdams

Richard Charnin
April 6, 2014

A series of articles (including three of mine) on John McAdams, the relentless Warren Commission apologist.

The articles thoroughly debunk the pathetic arguments from the Professor of Disinformation. I enjoyed the devastating reviews of McAdams’ book “JFK Assassination Logic” by Pat Speer, David Mantik, Frank Cassano and Gary Aguilar.

Jim Hargrove asks: Since Mcadams is known to use the alias “Paul Nolan” just how many other names has he used to deceive? He claims to be many things. A jet-propulsion expert, or Crackpot?
Here is what was discovered.

Isabel Kirk: McAdams is not just a fraud as a teacher. He is a corrupt man. He is an evangelist for corruption and fraud. He has sought and enlisted disciples, and they employ his knowingly fraudulent “methodology” in their writing “assignments,” many of which are posted to the website of Marquette University.

Jim DiEugenio with Brian Hunt:
“McAdams did indeed make comments that were intended to imply that Gary Aguilar was a drug addict. IMO, they were deliberate, malicious and intended to smear the doctor.”

John Simkin: “The Education Forum”
If you do any research of major figures in the JFK assassination via web search engines you will soon find yourself on John McAdams’ website. He is clearly the main disinformation source on the net.

Debra Hartman writes:
…McAdams has neither the educational preparation nor the ability for such a position — his language skills are abysmal; his analytical skills non-existent. Not only has he done no research whatsoever on the historical question he pretends to study, he has no knowledge of even the basics of a research methodology. Thus, McAdams himself argues against long established historical facts; on the other hand, he is incapable of doing the research necessary to either confirm or dispute such facts.

And on and on….

I just added an Amazon book sales sheet to JFK Calc.
Judyth Baker’s “Me and Lee” has the highest reader rank at 4.70.

McAdams’ book is far down the totem pole with a 2.38 reader rating out of 5. His sales rank is at 944,700, far below the others. He is a laughingstock all right.

The average rank for the six books that are fact-based is 4.51. McAdams’ 2.38 rank is based on disinformation.

McAdams has had just 16 reviews in three years. NINE (9) are at level 1 (the lowest), 1 is at level 2. Only 3 are level 5. Ten of 16 reviews thought his book stunk. Compare that to Judyth Baker who had 188 reviews in three years with 163 at level 5.

Of the 6 factual books, 793 of 1039 reviews (76%) were at level 5. For McAdams, 3 of 18 (19%) were at level 5.


Amazon Reader ranks (1 lowest to 5 highest)
Published -Title-Author
Sales rank 1 2 3 4 5 Total Average

4/2013 Hit List: Belzer, Wayne
33985 10 1 10 29 74 124 4.26

10/2013 Survivors Guilt: Vince Palamara
88519 8 3 2 7 83 103 4.50

10/2013 They Killed Our President: Ventura, Russell, Wayne
26202 12 2 11 36 125 186 4.40

10/2010 JFK and the Unspeakable: James Douglass
7441 23 11 16 37 333 420 4.54

10/2013 Crossfire: Jim Marrs
47599 1 0 0 2 15 18 4.67

10/2011 Me and Lee Judyth Baker
53426 7 2 6 10 163 188 4.70 < THE BEST

9/2011 How to Think About Claims of Conspiracy: McAdams
944700 9 1 0 3 3 16 2.38 < THE WORST

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Posted by on April 6, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized


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JFK Witness Deaths: How many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Likely Homicides?

JFK Witness Deaths: How Many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Likely Homicides?

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 18,2014

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Probability Tables and Graphs

In prior JFK witness death analyses, the focus has been on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides and unknown causes). This post will examine the likelihood that there were many more homicides than officially reported in the period from 1964-78. The analysis assumes a base case of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses noted in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

Unnatural Deaths
Some have questioned the assumption that there were more homicides than officially reported. The 1964-78 national average annual homicide rate was 0.000084 (or 8 per 100,000). Among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only two (1400*15*.000084) homicides would normally have been expected in the 15 year period.

Among the 122 suspicious witness deaths from 1964-78 in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown). The other 44 deaths were natural (25 heart attacks, 6 cancers, 13 other). But mortality rates for each cause of death buttress the suspicion that many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were homicides.

There was a ZERO probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths in 1964-78 based on unweighted U.S. unnatural mortality rates. But there were 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths. Using unweighted national mortality rates, the conservative probability is E-27 (1 in a trillion trillion). Using JFK-weighted mortality rates, the probability is E-62 (1 in a trillion^5).

Calculation of estimated JFK-related homicides
Approximately 214 total deaths were expected among the estimated 1400 witness universe in the 15 year period from 1964-78. Of this total, 197 were expected natural based on average statistical mortality (103 heart attacks, 42 cancers and 52 other illnesses) and 17 expected unnatural deaths (2 homicides, 12 accidents, 3 suicides).

As stated above, of the 122 suspicious witness deaths from 1964-78 in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown).Therefore, approximately 25 of the 40 deaths ruled to be accidents and suicides were homicides. Adding 25 to the 34 ruled homicides, approximately 59 of the 122 suspicious deaths were homicides. But this does not include suspicious heart attacks and sudden cancers which may have been homicides.

Expected and official unnatural deaths, mortality rates and probabilities
Unnatural Exp Off Rate Probability
Accidents 12 24 0.000594 1 in 800
Suicides 3 16 0.000130 1 in 30 million
Homicides 2 34 0.000084 1 million trillion trillion

We determine a reasonable estimate of 63 actual homicides among the 78 ruled unnatural by simple arithmetic. Subtracting the expected number of accidental deaths and suicides from the 78 ruled unnatural:
Homicides = 63 = 78-12-3. But what about the 44 deaths ruled natural?

The 44 natural deaths include 25 heart attacks and 19 from other causes. Unlike the documented unnatural deaths in JFK Calc, we don’t know how many deaths among the 1400+ witnesses were natural heart attacks, cancers and other causes But we do know the expected numbers: 103 heart attacks, 42 cancer and 52 other.

Let’s now estimate the number of natural deaths among the 122 suspicious deaths. Applying the (122/1400) ratio, there were an estimated 9 heart attacks, 3 cancers and 4 other illnesses. Therefore, approximately 91 were homicides.
91 Homicides = 122 suspicious deaths -12 accidents -3 suicides -9 heart attacks -3 cancer -4 other

1400 witnesses:1964-78
Cause......Ruled Expected
Homicide.....34 2 expected; 91 calculated = 122-12-3-9-3-4
Accident.....24 12
Suicide......16 3
Unknown.......4 0
Heart........25 9
Cancer........6 3
Other........13 4
Total.......122 122

This is a summary of the calculations and graphics for various witness groupings:

This worksheet in JFK Calc displays mortality rates for all causes of death in the 1964-1978 period (see row 40). The average rates for the period are used in the calculations.

View The sheer number of unnatural deaths and their suspicious timings constitute proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis of the probability of homicides from 1964-78 assumes 1,400 to 20,000 witnesses and 34 to 90 homicides. Scroll down to row 50 in this sheet:

For example, the conservative probability of 34 official homicides in the group of 1,400 witnesses is 1.57E-31 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). The probability is 4.97E-07 (less than 1 in a million) assuming 10,000 witnesses.

Warren Commission apologists claim that the number of witnesses is unknowable. This is false by definition since approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Sixty-seven (67) are listed in JFK Calc. And the 59 who were not called are obviously very relevant. View the JFK Calc ‘Witness Data’ sheet.

The following deaths may have very well been homicides:
24 Accidents
MAC WALLACE Auto crash; asleep at wheel.
Thomas E. Davis electrocuted
JAMES CADIGAN FBI document expert; Fall in home before HSCA interview.
WILLIAM SULLIVAN FBI#2 Asst. Dir. Gunshot before HSCA interview.

Hiram Ingram fall, died in 3 days of cancer
MAURICE GATLIN Fell from 6th floor, “heart attack”
Joseph C. Ayres Gunshot
J.A. Milteer Heater explosion
ROSCOE WHITE Industrial fire

WILLIAM WHALEY motor collision
JAMES WORRELL motorcycle crash
Leonard Pullin One-car crash
LEE BOWERS One-car crash. No autopsy.
John D. Sullivan Shot himself while cleaning his gun

MARY SHERMAN Stabbed; Electrocuted
Phil Geraci III (father) Electrocuted
Francis G. Powers * Helicopter crash
HALE BOGGS Plane crash
HUGH WARD Plane crash

Delesseps Morrison Plane crash
JIM REEVES * Plane crash
Dorothy Hunt Plane crash

16 Suicides
DAVID FERRIE Brain Aneurysm (Karate Chop?)
William H. Cooper Gunshot 5 days after auto crash
ROGER CRAIG Gunshot; many attempts on life.
GARY UNDERHILL Gunshot said CIA would kill him
Robert Alan Surrey Gunshot before HSCA testimony

GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Gunshot (on day of HSCA interview)
WILLIAM PITZER Gunshot (just before retirement)
LISA HOWARD * Drug overdose on vacation.
Darrell W. Garner Drug overdose.
GRANT STOCKDALE * JFK friend; “people trying to kill me”; fall from building.

William Pawley * Gunshot
BETTY MACDONALD Hanged in Dallas Jail
James Truitt Gunshot to the head
ALBERT BOGARD Carbon monoxide in car
Bill Waters Drug overdose (Demorol). No autopsy.
Maurice Baker * Gunshot to the head

15 Heart attack
TOM HOWARD 48 years old
James Chaney 55
Nicholas Chetta 50
Ralph Yates 39
Billy Lovelady 41

Thomas Karamessines 61
William Harvey 61
LOUIS NICHOLAS FBI In charge of JFK investigation: before HSCA interview.
J.M. ENGLISH FBI Head of Forensic sciences; before HSCA interview.

DONALD KAYLOR FBI Fingerprint expert; before HSCA interview.
REGIS KENNEDY FBI Oswald handler; before HSCA interview.
Desmond Fitzgerald Died playing tennis at 57.
BILL CHESHER Predicted he would be killed.
Winston Scott Son claimed CIA said unnatural death.

6 Cancer/Illness
FLORENCE SMITH Leukemia/ hemorrhage at 45
CLIFF CARTER Pneumonia (“penicillin unavailable”)
FRANK MARTIN Sudden cancer
MANUEL ARTIME Sudden cancer at 45.
Paul Dyer Sudden cancer in 28 days at 33.
JACK RUBY Sudden cancer in 29 days at 56

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T=15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: The probability P of n=34 official ruled homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.57E-31 = 1 in 6 million trillion trillion

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.


Posted by on November 8, 2013 in JFK, Uncategorized


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