JFK Witness Deaths: How many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Homicides?
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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
In prior JFK witness death analyses, the focus has been on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides and unknown causes). This post will examine the likelihood that there were many more homicides than officially reported in the period from 1964-78. The analysis assumes a base case of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses noted in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. It includes a probability sensitivity analysis over a range of 1,400 to 20,000 witnesses and 35-85 homicides (35 were officially reported).
Warren Commission apologists’ claim that the number of witnesses is unknowable. This is false by definition. Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Sixty-three (63) of the 1100 are among the 120 listed in JFK Calc. But the 57 who were not called are obviously very relevant; just view the connection in the JFK Calc ‘Witnesses’ sheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1
Seventy-eight (78) deaths were officially unnatural (35 homicides, 15 suicides, 25 accidents, 3 unknown). The other 42 were natural (heart attacks, cancers, other). But it’s conceivable that there were many more than 35 official homicides. Approximately 50 unnatural and suspicious deaths may very well have been homicides: 16 accidents, 13 suicides, 14 heart attacks, 2 natural causes, 7 cancers and other illnesses. Check out column G for the official cause of death (35 homicides), column J for JFK Calc (50 homicides) and column I for the expanded total (85 homicides). View the list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55.
In JFK Calc, the number of unnatural deaths has been adjusted to 85 (50 homicides, 8 suicides, 24 accidents, 3 unknown). View http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/. The sheer number of unnatural deaths and their suspicious timings constitute proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.
The following deaths may have been homicides:
MAC WALLACE Auto crash; asleep at wheel.
DOROTHY KILGALLEN Drug overdose
Thomas E. Davis electrocuted
JAMES CADIGAN FBI document expert; fall in home just before HSCA interview.
Hiram Ingram fall, died in 3 days of cancer
MAURICE GATLIN Fell from 6th floor, "heart attack"
Joseph C. Ayres Gunshot
WILLIAM SULLIVAN FBI#3 counter-espionage: Gunshot (mistaken for a deer); just before HSCA interview.
J.A. Milteer Heater explosion
ROSCOE WHITE Industrial fire
WILLIAM WHALEY motor collision
JAMES WORRELL motorcycle crash
Leonard Pullin One-car crash
LEE BOWERS One-car crash. No autopsy.
John D. Sullivan Shot himself while cleaning his gun
MARY SHERMAN Stabbed; Electrocuted
DAVID FERRIE Brain Aneursym; Karate Chop
William H. Cooper Gunshot 5 days after auto crash
ROGER CRAIG Gunshot; many attempts on life.
GARY UNDERHILL Gunshot
Robert Alan Surrey Gunshot
GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Gunshot (on day of HSCA interview)
WILLIAM PITZER Gunshot (just before retirement)
LISA HOWARD * Drug overdose on vacation.
Darrell W. Garner Drug overdose.
GRANT STOCKDALE * Fall from office building; no note.
William Pawley * Gunshot
BETTY MACDONALD Hanged in Dallas Jail
TOM HOWARD 48 years old
James Chaney 55
Nicholas Chetta G 50
Ralph Yates 39
Billy Lovelady 43 (heart complications)
Thomas Karamessines 61
LOUIS NICHOLS FBI In charge of JFK investigation: just before HSCA interview.
J.M. ENGLISH FBI Head of Forensic sciences; just before HSCA interview.
DONALD KAYLOR FBI Fingerprint expert; just before HSCA interview.
REGIS KENNEDY FBI Oswald handler; confiscated assassination photos; just before HSCA interview.
Desmond Fitzgerald playing tennis at 57.
BILL CHESHER Predicted he would be killed.
Winston Scott Son claimed CIA said unnatural death.
William Harvey Heart surgery complications at 61.
FLORENCE SMITH Cerebral hemorrhage at 45
CLIFF CARTER Pneumonia, "penicillin unavailable"
FRANK MARTIN Sudden cancer
MANUEL ARTIME Sudden cancer at 45.
Paul Dyer Sudden cancer in 28 days at 33.
JACK RUBY Sudden cancer in 29 days at 56
DAVID MORALES Sudden food illness at 53.
A sensitivity analysis of the probability of homicides from 1964-78 assumes 1,400 to 20,000 witnesses and 35 to 85 homicides. Scroll down to row 50 in this sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=27. The probabilities for 35, 50 and 85 homicides for 1,400 and 10,000 witnesses are noted in red. For example, the conservative probability of 35 official homicides in the group of 1,400 witnesses is 1.57E-31 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). The probability is 3.20E-07 (less than 1 in a million) assuming 10,000 witnesses. For 50 homicides and 1400 witnesses, the probability is 1.42E-53 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion!). For 10,000 witnesses, the probability is of course much higher: 1.33E-15 (less than 1 in a 1000 trillion!)
This worksheet from JFK Calc (row 40) displays mortality rates for all causes of death in the 1964-1978 period. The average rates for the period are used in the calculations. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=41
As shown in the table below, in 1964-78, there were 214 total expected deaths based on average mortality rates among the 1400 witnesses. Approximately 197 natural deaths were expected (103 heart attacks, 42 cancers and 52 other illnesses) as were 17 unnatural deaths (2 homicides, 12 accidents, 3 suicides). But 78 unnatural deaths were officially reported (35 homicides, 25 accidents, 15 suicides, 3 unknown).
Approximately 18 natural and unnatural deaths would have be expected in a random group of 120 in 1964-78. But since there were 120 in this material witness group, it is not unreasonable to assume that 100 were homicides.
* Official total unknown, expected deaths given.
Cause... Official Expected
Note the expected total number of deaths for the 1400 witness universe and for the 120 who died unnaturally or suspiciously. The number of actual “natural” deaths in 1964-78 is unknown . But we do know the official cause of death for the 120 witnesses in JFK Calc. Of the 1400 witnesses, approximately 214 would have been expected to die of any cause in the 15 year period from 1964-78.
This post contains a summary of the calculations and graphics for various witness groupings: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/
The 1964-78 national average annual homicide rate was 0.000084 (or 8 per 100,000). Therefore, among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only 1.77 = 1400*15*.000084 homicides would normally be expected in the 15 year period. There are 35 official and 50 adjusted homicides in JFK Calc. .
Assuming that 1400+ material witnesses were connected in some way to the assassination, the probability of 85 unnatural deaths from 1964-78 (using the JFK-weighted average unnatural mortality rate) is E-73 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion). Some have questioned the assumption that there were more homicides than officially reported. But the probability is still ZERO (1.2E-58) assuming 76 official unnatural deaths.
Assuming 1400 JFK-related witnesses, there is a ZERO probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths based on average (unweighted) U.S. mortality rates. For JFK-witnesses, the probability is ZERO of at least 12 deaths (due to the lower average mortality rate). But there were at least 83 unnatural deaths. The unweighted, conservative U.S. probability is E-31; the correct JFK-weighted probability is E-73.
HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Time: T=15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)
Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001
The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.
........................................Homicides (n) .........................
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100
Warren Commission Index
2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81
3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58
6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43