It’s as simple as that.

]]>Have other mathematicians attempted to replicate your model and have they arrived at the same results/conclusions? I’m no scientist but it would seem that if others could replicate your findings using your model this would be newsworthy.

]]>http://www.jfklancer.com/Fritzdocs.html

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15vokd2I6Zd32OWUvkQ29furIWkOPWZ9Pwms3Wy4Sc6E/pub

]]>The official,ruled causes of death are confirmed; the unnatural and natural mortality rates from 1963-78 are public information. The Poisson distribution is the accepted, standard function used to calculate the probability of rare events (e.g. homicides, accidents, suicides). Note that the official number of homicides (34) from the universe of 1400, must be much lower than the true number. This is due to the fact that the number of officially ruled deaths caused by accident, suicide, heart attack and sudden cancer are much higher than the respective statistically expected numbers based on published mortality rates for the given period. Probabilities are calculated for both official and estimated actual true causes of death.

The various witness groups all point to one conclusion: the odds are astronomical there was a cleanup operation (i.e. a conspiracy). The actuary engaged by the London Times in 1967 was correct; the odds of 18 material witness deaths (thirteen unnatural) in the three years following the assassination is 100,000 trillion to one. But there were at least 40 unnatural deaths in the three year period.

You can view the data and calculations in JFK Calc. I challenge your friend to refute them.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

]]>“Current thoughts on the issue:

1. The article pre-supposes that we have “good data” to work with, meaning that data contains in death certificates are accurate. I am not entirely convinced this is true. Case in point (just doing a simple Google search that found an article which states):

Robert Anderson, chief of mortality statistics for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said some doctors don’t grasp the significance of death certificates. “I’ve had instances where the physician just doesn’t understand the importance of what they’re writing down,” said Anderson, who trains doctors in how to certify deaths. “I’m appalled when I hear that.” State officials in Washington and Maryland routinely check the veracity of death certificates, but most states rarely do so, Anderson said.

2. The blog post started with the following: “This post will graphically prove a JFK conspiracy based on a probability analysis ….” What the numbers may indicate is that there is a correlation. With deep set theory, there may be an underlying set that has much more to do with the suspicious deaths. Or even, perhaps, we should not compare all people to these people. If we considered the Clinton administration, for instance, the percentage of number of deaths may be more inline. Bottom line is that the logic is fallacious.

I am not saying that it is not interesting or that there is a conspiracy here, but I am saying that the graphical representation of unnatural deaths does not indicate there was a conspiracy in this case.”

I would be most interested in your comments.

]]>Not even Lee claims that, esteemed David.

Note: I am on the CT side, and believe that mathematics is essential to solve this. I wish somebody did the Physics work required to show that the “jet effect” and “random neurological impulses” theories are impossible. The only remaining explanation -the kinematic force- kept the Z-film in a safe box for more than a decade.

]]>I will make sure to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back

sometime soon. I want to encourage you to continue your great writing, have a nice weekend! ]]>