My website contains an extensive set of links to many of my original posts and models dating back to 2004. Also included are links to important articles from some of the most influential election analysts and activists:
The media, academics, political scientists and politicians never discuss the evidence that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that election fraud is systemic. That is why this site exists. It is a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polling models and post-election True Vote Models. Final national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.
I have written two books on Election Analysis:
Matrix of Deceit:Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll.
The books show that the recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. Unlike the misinformation spread in the media, voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures. It’s the fault of the humans who program them.
In the 1968-2008 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the recorded vote by a 49-45% margin. The Recursive National True Vote Model indicates that the Democrats actually won by 49-45%.
In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit polls (375,000 respondents) by 51.6-41.8%. They won the average National Exit Polls (90,000 respondents) by the identical margin. But the recorded vote was just 48-46%. The deviations were too large to attribute to faulty polling or differential response.
Check out the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls Database which I created based on the Roper archives.
In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.
The 2004 Election Simulation Model illustrates pre and post-election simulation forecasting and analysis.
The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters – but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004. Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.
The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The 120 pre-election Generic forecast trend model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote and was within 0.06% of the unadjusted national exit poll. The Democratic landslide was denied.
A comprehensive analysis of the 2008 Primaries showed that Obama did significantly better than the recorded results indicate.
The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share, 9.5 million margin. But the forecast was too conservative. It was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Final registered voter (RV) polls had him leading by 13% – before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.
As always, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with impossible numbers and required 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. As in 2004, the Final implied that that more Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008 than were alive. Bush won the recorded vote by just 3.0 million. Kerry won the state exit polls by 52-47%. Assuming Kerry’s exit poll margin was correct, one would expect approximately 7 million more returning Kerry voters than Bush voters – a 19 million difference from the Final 2008 NEP.
The Final also indicated that there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the Final or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share was wrong.
The True Vote Model determined that Obama actually won by over 22 million votes and had 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).
The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.55 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin, exactly 1.0 million higher. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes of which Obama had 63.1%?
The 2010 Midterms Model indicated that a number of House, Senate and Governor elections were likely stolen.
The 2012 Election Model included a True Vote Model projection as well as the polling-based projection. The pre-election polling model exactly matched Obama’s 332 recorded electoral votes and was within 0.5% of his 51.0% share. But as in 2008, the polling-based forecast was too conservative since it was based on final likely voter (LV) polls which always underestimate the Democratic True share. Once again, an Obama landslide was denied.The True Vote Model indicated that he would have had 55% in a fraud-free election.