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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that the exit polls are always off (by 8% on average), therefore they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national exit polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy in 1 in trillions. The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Does the rationale sound crazy to you? Despite all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

I have been posting on this very unscientific procedure since 2004. In this post I will review the basic method used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. The pattern of deceit will be revealed by adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
There were 13,660 National Exit Poll respondents and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. But who questioned it? Who even knew about it? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

2008 Presidential
There were 17,836 National Exit Poll respondents. Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Bush 2004 voters and 37% (48 million) returning Kerry voters.This was impossible; it implied a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters. Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2010 Florida Governor
Scott defeated Sink with 50.59% of the 2-party vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll. In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Obama and McCain voters. But Obama won the recorded vote by 6%, so it is reasonable to assume that there would have been more returning Obama voters than McCain voters – and the unadkjusted exit poll indicates precisely that. Sink won the election. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=2079407084

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The crosstab How Did You Vote in 2010 is not listed, so let’s look at the Florida Party ID demographic. Democrats have traditionally outnumbered Republicans in Florida. But the 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33% (Dem-Rep-Ind) split. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott did among Republicans (88%). Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When Party ID is changed to a plausible 34-33-33% split, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. There is anomalous disconnect between Party ID and vote share.

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

In 2010, Walker won by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. But the True Vote Model (TVM) showed that he needed 23% of Obama returning voters to match the recorded vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t4pqdOMFhfNwaIq8ELOAg_w#gid=32

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Walker won with a 52.9% share. The exit poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by cutting returning Barrett voters to just 35% of 2014 voters, compared to Walker’s 50%. The 15% differential is much higher than the 7% Walker recorded margin (8% discrepancy) and the 6% Barrett True Vote margin (a 21% discrepancy).When the returning voter mix is changed to a feasible Barrett 45/Walker 41%, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%. In the “How Voted in 2012″ crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). This is highly anomalous and another “tell” that Walker stole the election. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=2079407084

 
 

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

As usual Nate gets it wrong. He talks about polling bias but not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but in reality any researcher who analyzes the historical record should see a consistent pattern – a red shift- to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit it. It is standard operating procedure. The rationale is that the polls must be wrong and therefore must be adjusted to match the pristine fraud-free recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls.

I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 In 2004 the percentage of living Bush 2000 voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 What is the probability that 131 of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/true-vote-models/

1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e

 

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Comments to the LA Times article on an upcoming PBS Special on JFK

Comments to the LA Times article on an upcoming PBS Special on JFK

Richard Charnin
Aug.10, 2013
Updated March 9, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

From the article:
“Sorry, conspiracy theorists, modern forensic science shows that John F. Kennedy was likely killed by “one guy with a grudge and a gun,” said professor John McAdams during a panel for Nova’s new “Cold Case: JFK” on Wednesday at the Television Critics Assn. press tour in Beverly Hills”. http://discussions.latimes.com/20/lanews/la-et-st-pbs-cold-case-jfk-conspiracy-theorists-20130807/10

“Killed by one guy with a grudge and a gun”?

That’s a lie, pure and simple. No, Professor, Americans are not so gullible as to believe this pathetic nonsense. Do you dare tell your students that it was a communist malcontent with a grudge? They probably would laugh you out of the classroom. Modern forensic evidence (videos, photographs, acoustic, medical, ballistic, geometric) and overwhelming eyewitness testimony proved a conspiracy a long time ago. Not to mention the mathematical impossibility that at least 100 of an estimated 1400 material witnesses would die mysteriously in the 14 years following the assassination.

Officially 77 deaths were ruled unnatural: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 3 unknown cause. But statistical expectation based on mortality rates indicates there should have been just 12 accidents and 3 suicides. Approximately 25 of the 40 deaths officially ruled accidents and suicides were actually homicides. Therefore, approximately 59 of the 77 deaths ruled unnatural were homicides. But that’s not all. The 43 deaths officially ruled as “natural”, including heart attacks and sudden cancers, was also overstated based on statistical expectation. As many as 25 were actually homicides, therefore approximately 80-90 of the 1400 material witnesses deaths were homicides.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

Since you cannot refute the mathematics, you are left with the lame response that the data, logic and calculations were not peer-reviewed. You are not interested in the scientific method and are apparently mathematically challenged; that’s why you cannot peer-review it yourself. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/debunking-john-mcadams-debunking-of-jim-marrs-witness-list/

To you, all honest JFK researchers, authors, Parkland doctors and Dealey Plaza eyewitnesses are “mistaken” and/or trying to sell books – just like you did. But unlike these truth seekers, you and the corporate media gatekeepers are classic examples of how factual omission, misinformation, disinformation and logical fallacies are used to cover up the truth about the JFK assassination.

Now these comments to the article are for readers (and students) who can think for themselves.

Clare Kuehn at 4:40 PM August 10, 2013
Not only is a wide and deep conspiracy far more horrible — the horrible way we can be fooled and that people would want to — than “odd events which just might happen” (though those can be horrible, too) …

There HAS to be a magic bullet simply within the back-near-spine to front-of-neck trajectory: An empty object (one without a spine/neckbones) could have such a trajectory, but centre front from (or to) near centre back REQUIRES A STOPPED OR DEFLECTED BULLET.

McAdams/PBS advisors’ “science” dies on this single point.

James Fetzer at 2:30 PM August 10, 2013
Does anyone really believe that the belief that our lives is dominated by powerful special interests who can even remove the President of the United States in broad daylight in a major American city is psychologically “more comforting” than the belief that it was done by “a lone, demented gunman”?

Psychologists observe that most of us suppress information that conflicts with our most deeply held beliefs, such as the belief that our government is nurturing and protecting us. The phenomenon, which is known as “cognitive dissonance”, can be illustrated by a woman who discovers evidence that her husband has been molesting their daughter, but cannot bring herself to accept it. Years later, when the truth emerges, she is at a loss to explain why she had not done something about it. The “magic bullet” theory is not even anatomically possible, as David W. Mantik, M.D., Ph.D., has proven, because cervical vertebrae intervene, which shows their knowledge of human psychology is no greater than their knowledge of human anatomy. The situation is the same with regard to 9/11, where Rachel Maddow touts it as “more comforting” to believe that the government murdered 3,000 of our fellow citizens to promote a political agenda than it is to believe that 19 Islamic terrorists committed the crime. They are bringing us a song and dance in lieu of rational analysis based on logic and evidence.

Harald’s Piget at 9:46 AM August 10, 2013
Why does George H.W. Bush choke on the words “deranged madman”?
He’s stifling a laugh cause he can’t even say it with a straight face. At Ford’s funeral H.W. brings up the Kennedy case. And yes, Ford was on the Commission and did the lynch pin altering of the data to make the “Magic Bullet” slightly more plausible.. Enough for government work..

Why do they call it “Magic Bullet”?
Because the alleged behavior of the bullet does not match the habits of nature as described by Newton! Get it, folks…It didn’t happen. The whole thing is a dirty American secret hiding in plain sight…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ft3eGWZd7LE

Harald’s Piget at 9:30 AM August 10, 2013
The “Commission” which allegedly cleared the air was not even independent – it was picked by LBJ. And didn’t even investigate, regardless of the 16 volume record that is now definitely not in your local library. Just read a few pages to discover it was most definitely not an investigation; if you know anything about what an actual investigation looks like.

There must be an emotional reason every single literate citizen who has access to the Internet could not figure this out and draw the appropriate conclusion. The “Magic Bullet” notion is just for people who believe the Bible was found under a tree and God put it there.

Harald’s Piget at 9:28 AM August 10, 2013
All the details those people who’ve studied the forensics and issues for 10K hours, at least, understand and think makes it all obvious, just make folks eyes glaze over… ’cause that’s how it’s been framed.

And the experts are so close to the material it inhibits the communication of the reality to folks who have no frame of reference for the details… So a McAdam’s can get away with reassuring people “there’s nothing to look at here. Move along”.
It also helps the public are not trained in logic, rhetoric and grammar.

The hit to the back of the head with the brains on the back of the limo? The alleged rifle that couldn’t load fast enough; a rifle so old it was difficult if not impossible to get bullets. The fact the evidence shows Kennedy was hit to the head with a high powered rifle.. The fact the alleged killer was not a marksmen and the image of him with a rifle – promoted by Time- Life was special effected.. The blocking tree the obscured the shot..

Not even touching on the patsy’s murder while in the custody of the Dallas police within a few days by a mob connected murderer. That alone was enough to make most Europeans know it was a State hit.

Harald’s Piget at 9:27 AM August 10, 2013
If it’s on TV. you know it’s a lie…Tom Hanks is as trustable as Earl Warren.. Remember, the first movie Hanks starred in was how video games made a kid (played by Tom Hanks) want to jump off the Trade Towers, since the games made Hank’s role think he could fly.

Why is McAdams so interested in propping up the falsified one-thousand-and-one ways to Sunday… ludicrous myth? It’s gonna take some big gonads to come out on the 50th with this horrendous lie. Ra Ra. lol

The perpetrators and cover – up artists never lacked chutzpah. Even to the point of making Oliver Stone a pariah in the movie business for 10 years after , his actually lukewarm “JFK”. For years, Stone’s name mentioned in the Mass Media organs never went by once without the accompaniment of a blaring laugh – track around the alleged slur “Conspiracy theorist.”

How’s that for fallacious persuasion and Mass Media control of information and perception? All this gigantically funded Propaganda push, marking the 50th year, is going to prove is the indisputable collusion of the Mass Media organs of information.

Richard Charnin at 8:32 AM August 10, 2013
“I no longer believe that we were able to conduct an appropriate investigation of the [Central Intelligence] Agency and its relationship to Oswald…. I do not believe any denial offered by the Agency on any point. The law has long followed the rule that if a person lies to you on one point, you may reject all of his testimony…. We now know that the Agency withheld from the Warren Commission the CIA-Mafia plots to kill Castro. Had the commission known of the plots, it would have followed a different path in its investigation…. We also now know that the Agency set up a process that could only have been designed to frustrate the ability of the committee in 1976-79 to obtain any information that might adversely affect the Agency. Many have told me that the culture of the Agency is one of prevarication and dissimulation and that you cannot trust it or its people. Period. End of story. I am now in that camp.” –Robert Blakey, staff director and chief counsel for the U.S. House Select Committee on Assassinations, statement from 2003

Richard Charnin at 8:32 AM August 10, 2013
“After the assassination the public was burdened with no quandary. Wherever the guilt really lay, the man identified as killing President Kennedy was stamped as a disciple of the extreme left. Rightly or wrongly, the political left was implicitly convicted along with Oswald. Was that verdict just, or were Oswald and his apparent heroes victims of a vicious double-cross by forces of the extreme right?” –Anthony Summers, Not in Your Lifetime

“I have felt, I always felt, a sympathy for Oswald, and I just don’t feel it’s right that he would be, or his children should be, stuck with that stigma, that’s all.” –Chauncey Holt, CIA contract agent and Mafia associate (also identified as one of the “three tramps” photographed in Dealey Plaza), video interview, 20 June 1997

“Lee Oswald was totally, unequivocally, completely innocent of the assassination. And the fact that history — or in the rewriting of history — has made a villain of this young man, who wanted nothing more than to be a fine Marine, is in some ways the greatest injustice of all.” –Jim Garrison, District Attorney of New Orleans, interviewed in the documentary, The Men Who Killed Kennedy: Part 4: The Patsy

Richard Charnin at 8:31 AM August 10, 2013
“It was common knowledge in the Tokyo CIA station that Oswald worked for the agency…. Right after the President was killed, people in the Tokyo station were talking openly about Oswald having gone to Russia for the CIA. Everyone was wondering how the agency was going to be able to keep the lid on Oswald. But I guess they did.” –interview of Jim and Elsie Wilcott, former husband and wife employees of the Tokyo CIA Station, San Francisco Chronicle, “Couple Talks about Oswald and the CIA,” 12 September 1978

[Former CIA Director Richard] Helms told reporters during a break that no one would ever know who or what Lee Harvey Oswald … represented. Asked whether the CIA knew of any ties Oswald had with either the KGB or the CIA, Helms paused and with a laugh said, ‘I don’t remember.'” –Richard Helms, chatting with the Washington Post’s George Lardner and other reporters in 1978, during a recess of the U.S. House Select Committee on Assassinations, cited by Gaeton Fonzi, The Last Investigation

Richard Charnin at 8:30 AM August 10, 2013
“There’s no question in my mind that the twenty-six volume set [of the Warren Report] should be taken from the shelves of all the libraries where they now rest in the United States, in non-fiction, and placed in the fiction shelves, along with Tom Sawyer, Huckleberry Finn, and Gulliver’s Travels.” –Dr. Cyril Wecht, interviewed in the documentary, The Men Who Killed Kennedy: Part 1: The Coup D’etat

“If he had it to do over again, he would begin his investigation of the Kennedy assassination by probing ‘Oswald’s ties to the Central Intelligence Agency.'” --Richard Sprague, first staff director and chief counsel to the U.S. House Select Committee on Assassinations, statement to Sam Anson of New Times magazine, cited by Gaeton Fonzi, The Last Investigation

“[Lee Oswald’s mother] Mrs. Marguerite Oswald frequently expressed the opinion that her son was recruited by an agency of the U.S. Government and sent to Russia in 1959, but she stated before the Commission that ‘I cannot prove Lee is an agent.'” –Warren Commission Report, Appendix XII: Speculations and Rumors, Oswald and U.S. Government Agencies, p. 660

Richard Charnin at 8:30 AM August 10, 2013
“We do know Oswald had intelligence connections. Everywhere you look with him, there’re fingerprints of intelligence.” –Republican Senator Richard Schweiker, member of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, The Village Voice, 15 December 1975

“The question of whether Oswald had any relationship with the FBI or the CIA is not frivolous. The agencies, of course, are silent. Although the Warren Commission had full power to conduct its own independent investigation, it permitted the FBI and the CIA to investigate themselves — and so cast a permanent shadow on the answers.” --Walter Cronkite, CBS News anchor, 28 June 1967

“I think the [Warren] report, to those who have studied it closely, has collapsed like a house of cards … the fatal mistake the Warren Commission made was to not use its own investigators, but instead to rely on the CIA and FBI personnel, which played directly into the hands of senior intelligence officials who directed the cover-up.” –Republican Senator Richard Schweiker, member of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, speaking on the CBS News program Face the Nation, 27 June 1976

Richard Charnin at 7:37 AM August 10, 2013
Apparently, McAdams had a limited math background, otherwise he would have done the analysis. His total ignorance of probability theory is shown by his feeble, pathetic attempt to refute the testimony of eyewitnesses and medical doctors at Parkland Hospital. The man has no shame. And this is a university professor? http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/logic2.htm

As a quantitative analyst/software developer working in defense/aerospace and Wall Street investment banking, I had the pleasure of programming mathematical models that were more complex than calculating probabilities of JFK witness unnatural deaths. Facts, logic and mathematical proof are the bane of the disinformationist. Knowing the unnatural mortality rate (R) for (n) witness unnatural deaths in a group of (N) individuals over a given time period (T) is all that is required in order to calculate the probability of (n) deaths.
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/jfk-mysterious-witness-deaths-london-sunday-times-and-hsca-cover-up/

Richard Charnin at 7:34 AM August 10, 2013
The following logical analysis represents a profound PARADIGM SHIFT in analyzing the significance of the “convenient” witness deaths. To prove a conspiracy, it does not matter one iota if individual witnesses were related or material to the assassination (even though they obviously were). Witness relevance and connection to JFK becomes obvious after the fact.

This straightforward probability analysis closes the book on McAdams’ decades-old barrage of disinformation and utter disregard for the truth. As a professor of political science, one would expect McAdams to seek the truth with an honest scientific evaluation of the facts. His avoidance – or inability – of engaging in an honest analysis cannot be attributed totally to pure ignorance. His agenda is obvious to anyone paying attention. He has been exposed time and again as an illogical coincidence theorist (CT). The “tell” is his inability to refute the basic mathematical analysis which proves that there was a conspiracy to assassinate JFK.

Knowing the unnatural mortality rate (R) for (n) witness unnatural deaths in a group of (N) individuals over a given time period (T) is all that is required in order to calculate the probability of (n) deaths.
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/jfk-mysterious-witness-deaths-london-sunday-times-and-hsca-cover-up/

Richard Charnin at 7:23 AM August 10, 2013
John McAdams is the foremost Warren Commission apologist and Lone Nutter. To McAdams, JFK researchers seeking the truth are “conspiracy buffs” who are wrong to believe scores of eyewitnesses, Parkland doctors, photographic and acoustic evidence.

McAdams astounding propensity to obfuscate is best illustrated in his attempt to debunk Jim Marrs’ list in “Strange” and “Convenient” Deaths Surrounding the Assassination: http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/deaths.htm. But this is just one example of McAdams’ disinformation and obfuscations.

After reading this post, check out Michael T. Griffith’s extremely thorough debunking of McAdams’ Kennedy Assassination home page. The devastating article was written in 2001, yet McAdams is still “lone-nutting” for the Warren Commission. http://www.mtgriffith.com/web_documents/vsmcadams.htm

We will quickly prove that McAdams’ valiant effort to refute the relevance of the witnesses is an exercise in futility. He is apparently unaware that at least 56 of the approximate 800 witnesses called to testify by the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw Trial, Senate Select Committee and the HSCA met “convenient” deaths in 1964-77. The probability is ZERO.
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/debunking-john-mcadams-debunking-of-jim-marrs-witness-list/

Richard Charnin at 6:04 AM August 10, 2013
Oswald said: “I am just a patsy”. Here is proof that he was. Aside from the impossible Magic Bullet trajectory, and the planted pristine bullet found on Connally’s stretcher at Parkland Hospital, we have Absolute proof of a conspiracy: The bullet in Connally’s thigh. Will this be shown in the upcoming Tom Hanks cover-up propaganda film “Parkland”? Not Likely. http://rechtiskrom.wordpress.com/2013/01/27/lee-harvey-oswald-i-am-just-a-patsy/

WinstonCourt at 10:53 PM August 9, 2013
There is no theory that a lot, if not most, of information on this was locked up for 75 years, and kept from the public. There is no theory about our government having been caught in the past killing people. There is no theory about the fact that our government frequently lies. There is no theory about the fact that government hides their evil actions under the title of “national security.” There is no theory that a bunch of perverts have been caught in our public servant offices. Etc., etc., etc.

So, it really becomes a focus on “conspiracy.” And, am I the only one who is a constant state of conspiracy in my actions? I mean, a LOT of what I do is a conspiracy. I hide facts, I lie, I manipulate, I choose words to lead people into believing scenerios which are less that true, etc., etc., etc.
So then, is government, our public servants, etc. like God, and are perfect people? I THINK NOT!

Clare Kuehn at 3:56 PM August 9, 2013
Psychologizing about which is more comforting — odd events, or corruption at high and low levels — is moot. The question is which science work is done properly.
Since a back wound just to the right of the spine would have to pass through bony process from the neck, no matter HOW the body was positioned, in order to reach the center front neck, there had to be at least a back and front shooter to be forensically anatomically possible.

As Arlen Specter’s own questions to the doctors in the Warren Commission admit, the shots require NO NECK BONE, as do McAdams’ and the hypothetical “science” of PBS advisors.

Kennedy could raise his head; he had a neck bone.This aspect (1 front shot, 1 back shot) does not exonerate Oswald as a shooter, but it is a start. And already posits the requirement of 2 or more persons: a conspiracy; and answers it with roughly where they were (a theory, i.e., explanation — of the forensics).
Now get real.

James Fetzer at 2:51 PM August 9, 2013
Citing John McAdams’ book, JFK ASSASSINATION LOGIC (2011), creates a grossly misleading impression. As David W. Mantik, M.D., Ph.D., has shown in his devastating review on the CTKA web site, McAdams commits so many fallacies that I, who offered courses in logic, critical thinking and scientific reasoning for 35 years, could teach a week’s worth of dissection in critical thinking. It is a compendium of irresponsible reasoning.

He grossly violates a basic condition of scientific reasoning, namely, that it must be based upon ALL the available evidence. In relation to the Zapruder film, for example, he does not explain that 60 witnesses reported observing the limousine slow dramatically or come to a complete stop, where it slowed dramatically AS it came to a complete stop. Nor that a half-dozen have viewed another film that includes it. Nor does he cite John P. Costella’s on-line Zapruder tutorial.

This had to be suppressed lest the public realize that the film has been massively altered, since the driver’s pulling it to the left and to a halt was such a stunning indication of Secret Service complicity. While the blow-out at the back of his head was painted over in black, it can still be seen in frame 374. For more, see “Who’s telling the truth: Clint Hill or the Zapruder film?”, “Did Zapruder film ‘the Zapruder film’? and “Thinking about ‘Conspiracy Theories': 9/11 and JFK”.


James Fetzer at 9:23 AM August 9, 2013
As Michael Baden, M.D., who chaired the medical panel for the HSCA, has observed, if the “magic bullet” theory is false, then there had to have been at least 6 shots from 3 directions, insofar as the wound to JFK’s throat could no longer be counted as an exit wound and the wounds to John Connally would also require extra shots and additional shooters.

Since the “magic bullet” theory is provably false, there must have been at least 6 shots and additional shooters, which establishes the existence of the conspiracy that others, like John McAdams, are so eager to cover-up. (See “Reasoning about Assassinations”.)

The shirt and jacket JFK was wearing have holes about 5.5″ below the collar. The autopsy diagram shows a wound at that location. Admiral Burkley places the wound at the level of the 3rd thoracic vertebrae. An FBI sketch shows the back wound lower than the wound to the throat. Re-enactment photos show a large patch there, with a smaller patch at the back of the head. The mortician’s description places it 5-6″ below the collar.
Gerald Ford had the wound re-described from “his uppermost back” to “the base of the back of the neck”. But the hypothesis is not even anatomically possible, because cervical vertebrae intervene. What science shows is that JFK was killed by at least 6 shots from 3 directions. The question is easy to resolve by simply looking at the evidence.

James Fetzer at 12:33 AM August 9, 2013
Having pioneered the application of scientific reasoning to the assassination of JFK in ASSASSINATION SCIENCE 1998, MURDER IN DEALEY PLAZA 2000 and THE GREAT ZAPRUDER FILM HOAX 2003–which Vincent Bugliosi has acknowledged as the only exclusively scientific books published on the death of our 35th president–John McAdams’ stance is absurd.

I organized a research group of the most highly qualified experts to ever study the case in late 1992, including three M.D.s and three Ph.D.s. We discovered almost immediately that the autopsy X-rays had been altered, that another brain had been substituted for that of JFK and that the Zapruder film had been massively revised.

There are more than 15 indications of Secret Service complicity in setting him up for the hit; the CIA/military/Mafia/anti-Castro Cubans and local law-enforcement took him out, the FBI was used to cover it up and Lyndon and J. Edgar were principals with financing from Texas oil men. See “What happened to JFK–and why it matters today”.

“Reasoning about Assassinations”, which I presented at Cambridge and published in an international, peer-reviewed journal, provides the simplest proof of conspiracy, simply by establishing where JFK was hit in the back. We are in the midst of the most massive propaganda campaign in US history, where McAdams is far from alone in spreading false information about the assassination.

Richard Charnin at 10:38 PM August 8, 2013
In 1964-1977, at least 81 of 1400 material witnesses died unnaturally (46 homicides, 8 suicides, 23 accidental, 4 unknown). Applying the national unnatural mortality rate (0.000542) the probability is 5.62E-43. That is less than (1/trillion)^3. Using the actual observed weighted unnatural rate (0.000148), the probability of 81 unnatural deaths is less than (1/trillion)^6.

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list.
Even assuming an impossible 25,000 material witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate, there was a 1 in 500,000 probability of 46 witness homicides in the 14 years following the assassination.

But this is a conservative estimate based on 46 of 81 unnatural deaths. If 24 of the 35 “accidents” and “suicides” were actually homicides, the probability of 70 homicides is 7.77E-16 (1 in 1000 TRILLION). So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/

Richard Charnin at 10:26 PM August 8, 2013
Exposing the Media and Coincidence Theorists (CTs) in the JFK Cover-up: Facts, Logic, Mathematics

Suppose that on Nov. 22, 1963, 1400 individuals were selected from the U.S. population and that within one year, at least 15 would die unnaturally (homicide, accident, suicides. Based on unnatural mortality rates, only one such death would be expected.

There are two possibilities. The 15 unnatural deaths were…
1) unrelated. It was just a 1 in 167 trillion coincidence.
2) related. There was a common factor -a connection- between them.
We can confidently rule out 1). But if the 15 unnatural deaths were related, what was the connection?
Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, is the truth.
– Arthur Conan Doyle

In 1977, an HSCA statistician said it was impossible to determine a defined universe of JFK-related witnesses. Therefore the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid.But the Warren Commission had 552 total witnesses. At least 18 died unnaturally in 14 years; the probability is 1 in 140 BILLION.
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/exposing-the-media-and-coincidence-theorists-cts-in-the-jfk-cover-up-facts-logic-mathematics/

Richard Charnin at 10:07 PM August 8, 2013
JFK Mysterious Witness Deaths and the HSCA
In 1964, the Warren Commission ignored the testimony of 51 eyewitnesses who claimed that the shots came from the Grassy Knoll area. Just 32 said they came from the Texas School Book Depository. In 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) was forced to conclude that there was a “probable” conspiracy based on acoustic evidence – a 96% probability of at least four shots (including at least one from the Grassy Knoll). The physical evidence indicates more than four shots. Some shooters probably used silencers.

Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, the HSCA was not about to refute the Warren Commission’s outrageous Single Bullet Theory. It still maintained that Oswald fired from the TSBD – and the other shooter(s) must have missed. I

So it is not surprising that prior to the presentation of the acoustic evidence, the HSCA would use obfuscation and factual omission in an attempt to refute an actuary’s calculation of 100,000 trillion to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. If the odds were essentially correct, it would force the HSCA to conclude a conspiracy.
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/jfk-mysterious-witness-deaths-london-sunday-times-and-hsca-cover-up/

Richard Charnin at 9:59 PM August 8, 2013
JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify

This post will describe the methodology used to calculate mortality rates and associated probabilities of the deaths of witnesses who testified or were sought in four JFK-related investigations. The method represents a paradigm shift in analyzing witness deaths and is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

The only relevant variables needed for calculating probabilities are the number (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died unnaturally, the time period (T), and the unnatural mortality rate (R).

Warren Commission (WC) apologists and “coincidence” theorists (CTs) have offered tortured explanations to refute the relevance of witness deaths by challenging the witness connection to the assassination and/or cause of death. But their explanations are an exercise in futility; they miss the forest for the trees. Focusing on any particular death is an irrelevant distraction.

First, they are debunked by the known number of witnesses who testified or were sought to testify in the four investigations. Second, the fact they were sought is obvious proof that they were relevant.
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/17/jfk-assassination-paradigm-shift-deaths-of-witnesses-called-to-testify/

David Winter1 at 1:49 PM August 8, 2013
“And on its face, their science does sound good. “

But that’s the problem, their science IS NOT very good. The evidence that there was more than one shooter, AND that there was a cover up is overwhelming. Even the United States government finally admitted in 1976 that there was a conspiracy and cover up.

Oswald was photographed on the ground floor by the front door. He was then seen, by a police man, drinking a Coke within second of the shots being fired. It is physically not possible for him to have been by the window at the time.

And let’s forget the fact that the Zapruder film clearly shows that the last shot (or at least fatal shot) came from the front. I spent many years in the Navy. I fired a lot of weapons. Heads do not move backwards towards the round and the skull explode out the back when a round enters the rear of the head. It just doesn’t happen and if this supposed firearms expert is claiming this then he’s no expert at all.

The ‘lone nut’ theory is more easily debunked than the creationist theory. PBS is reaching for straws if they think they can actually win this argument.

Tim Fleming1 at 12:24 PM August 8, 2013
Lone nutters like DeNooyer and McAdams have been peddling lies for decades. They do history a disservice and they protect those monsters (some of whom are still alive) who pulled it off. To believe these coincidence theorists, one must overlook a mountain of evidence which indicates a conspiracy took JFK’s life. Shame on PBS.
Tim Fleming
author, The President’s Mortician
http://www.neverlandpublishing.com

Bill Kelly3 at 9:49 PM August 7, 2013
How can science determine that the motive for the assassination was a “grudge”?

Why can’t an alleged scientific investigation into the assassination tell us more than we knew before rather than just reaffirm a lone shooter, which does preclude a conspiracy?
And how does believing in a conspiracy make one feel safer or more secure?

And how come these scientific documentaries on the assassination fail to explore the DNA testing of the bullet fragments by the ARRB in 1998, which would really be interesting but nobody wants to explore it?

And what about a scientific review of the acoustical testing by the HSCA?

And why not a proper forensic autopsy of the victims today, when better scientific x-rays, MRIs, DNA and other tests are available?

Science doesn’t oppose conspiracy theories, producers who don’t want to explore the best lines of inquiry and only interview professors with a grudge like McAdams are the ones who oppose conspiracy theories.

Science promotes the truth. Dig up the body and give it to science for a few hours and many of the outstanding questions will be answered. And releasing the remaining government records withheld for reasons of national security will answer the rest.
Bill Kelly

Richard Charnin at 9:31 PM August 7, 2013
McAdams and the Lone Nutters who still push the insane Magic Bullet Theory have been debunked a long time ago.

 
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Posted by on August 10, 2013 in JFK

 

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Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. The 122 JFK witness deaths (78 ruled unnatural) are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. There are numerous data anomalies in the accumulated totals in both.

The problems are similar. In the Election Fraud analysis, we need to determine the number of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. We would expect a near equal split. In the JFK analysis, we need to compare the number of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

We assume the Null Hypothesis: No JFK Conspiracy; No substantive Election Fraud. The first step is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. A mathematical analysis determines if the observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. If the resulting probabilities go to zero, we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– JFK: witness universe, unnatural deaths, time period, mortality rate
– Election Fraud: state elections, exit polls, recorded shares, margin of error

In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities based on the number of…
– JFK: unnatural deaths vs. expected number based on mortality statistics.
– Election Fraud: exit polls exceeding the margin of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His response was typical disinformation; he wrote that I am reluctant to have the analysis peer-reviewed. But no one has ever come forth to refute the election fraud or JFK analysis. The work has been available on spreadsheets to everyone with Internet access for years. It has been cited in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

McAdams is apparently incapable of doing a peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Marquette University but he has not done so. https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
We calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

The MoE is a function of the number of exit poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. For example, the calculated 2.50% MoE and a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the MoE was exceeded in 135 of the 274 exit polls, 131 moving in favor of the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. At the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the GOP is a ridiculous E-116 (116 zeros to the right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. But what if the cluster factor is higher than 30%? It would increase the MoE; therefore, the number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

In the sensitivity analysis, we calculate probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. The most likely base case is the 30% cluster factor (a total 3.60% average MoE). The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of the 274 elections. The probability P= E-83 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Even assuming an impossible 200% cluster factor, the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=43

If the six elections were fair, we would expect the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. The margin of error scenarios all show that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. The probabilities of the red-shift were ZERO in all scenarios. Therefore we can conclude that Election Fraud is systemic beyond any doubt.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive simulaton analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. I created an exit poll response optimization model which confirmed the USCV simuation: http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm

JFK Assassination Witnesses

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy.

But in fact the number of witnesses was knowable. Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously (38 unnaturally, 27 were homicides). Of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnatural). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) approximately 600 witnesses called to testify died suspiciously (26 unnaturally). Most of the deaths occurred just before the witnesses’ scheduled testimony.

We have a finite universe of witnesses, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Given this input, we can calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. This is analogous to the actual and expected numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.
We calculate a probability matrix of unnatural deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. We can then analyze the effects of these two key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Conversely, as the number of unnatural witness deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

There were at least 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. The probability is E-62 assuming the average weighted JFK unnatural mortality rate (0.000247). It is E-41 assuming the average unweighted national unnatural rate (0.000822). But many suicides and accidents were actually homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is ZERO in all plausible combination scenarios.

There are some who claim there were many more than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. The FBI claimed 25,000 persons were interviewed. But how many were material witnesses who had information related to the assassination? Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of 80 Homicides for N witnesses (1964-78)
N….Probability

1400 1.68E-100
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82E-52
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52E-18
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK

 

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Nov.4,2013

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42% – but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. View the state and national numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968 – always favoring the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

A Facebook discussion: https://www.facebook.com/richard.charnin/posts/735042649871085

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Al Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. The Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming a 96% turnout, 46 million voted. Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that the adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. In order to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

THE ULTIMATE PROOF THAT THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW VOTERS, NEARLY 60% FOR KERRY), B) 4 MILLION RETURNING GORE MARGIN AND C) 2 MILLION RETURNING NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share. He had 53.5% in the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 National Exit Poll crosstabs to force a match to the recorded vote.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

In 2012, Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. But just 31 states were exit polled, therefore a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. The slight 2% margin difference is a powerful indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

This is a summary of my 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

This spreadsheet contains the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls and true vote model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Note that the Election Model forecasts are based on final state pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls, a subset of the total Registered Voters (RV) polled. The LVs always understate Democratic voter turnout; many new (mostly Democratic) voters are rejected by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Total votes cast include net uncounted votes which are 70-80% Democratic. The combination of the LVCM and uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean), 322 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (BOGUS match to recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Projection Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (match BOGUS recorded vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models

 

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