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Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec.13, 2012

This is an update to the post Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16-million votes.

A table of 2012 late and total votes and corresponding 2008 votes and unadjusted exit polls has been added to the 2012 model. It reveals a pattern of intriguing similarities which strengthen the case that the 4-5% systemic election fraud factor reduced Obama’s True Vote margin by approximately 10-12 million.

The 2008 Election Model projected a 53.1% vote share for Obama and 365.3 expected EV; he had 52.9% and 365 EV. The model utilized Likely Voter (LV) polls which understated Obama’s True Vote share.

Anticipating the systemic 5% fraud factor, the 2012 True Vote Forecast Model included two projections: 1) the recorded vote based on Likely Voter polls (Obama had 51.6%) and 2) the True Vote based on estimates of returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares of returning and new voters. The recorded vote projection exactly matched Obama’s 332 EV. In the True Vote Model, he had 55.2% and 380 EV.

In 2008, Obama had 52.3% on Election Day and 52.87% of the total 131.1 million recorded votes. He had 59.2% of 10.16 million late votes. In 2012, Obama had 50.34% on Election Day and 51.03% of the total 129.13 million recorded votes. He had 58.0% of 11.68 million late votes. The 2.0% differential between Obama’s 2012 and 2008 late vote shares matches the spread between his 51.03% total share and his 52.87% share in 2008.

In 2008, Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and 61.0% in the National Exit Poll (17,836). He also had 58.0% in the True Vote Model If the exit polls and the True Vote Model are accurate, then the 10.16 million Late Votes accurately represented the 2008 electorate. Obama’s 59.2% late vote share was right in the middle of the 58-61% exit poll range. In 2012, there were just 31 state exit polls. The unadjusted state and national polls have not been released.

Obama had a 56.1% two-party share in the 2012 post-election True Vote Model. It is likely that the 5% Fraud Factor resulted in his 51.0% recorded share.

Was the Late Vote a legitimate proxy of the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate Late Vote by 57-39%, the same 18% margin as the unadjusted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the weighted Late Vote by 54-42%; the 12% margin matched the 56-44% two-party True Vote Model.

The 2012 unadjusted exit polls are unavailable. But it is reasonable to assume that Obama would have 56% in the aggregate poll (2% below his 2008 aggregate share) given the 2% difference between Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares.

2008/2012 correlation:
Late Vote: 0.84
Recorded Vote: 0.98
2008 Late Vote/Exit Poll: 0.74
Late % of Total Vote: 0.83

Florida
2008: 405,000 late votes, Obama 50.9% recorded, 51.6% late, 52.1% exit poll
2012: 166,000 late votes, 49.9-49.3% recorded on Election day;
57.8-41.2-1.0% late
More than 200,000 Florida voters were discouraged by long lines and left without voting – most were for Obama.

Ohio
2008: 500,000 late votes, 51.4% recorded, 54.0% late, 54.1% exit poll
2012: 228,000 late votes, 50.3-48.3% recorded on Election Day;
57.1-31.8-11.1% late

Virginia
2008: 249,000 late votes, 52.6% recorded, 65.4% late, 62.5% exit poll
2012: 160,000 late votes, 50.6-47.8% recorded on Election Day;
64.7-34.2-1.1% late

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Richard Charnin
Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013

In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. In each of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections, Democratic Late Votes recorded after Election Day have closely matched the unadjusted state and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.

Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? This analysis indicates that Obama did much better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?

This analysis does not include the millions of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. In Florida, 49,000 voters got tired of waiting on lines for eight hours and went home. Had they voted, Obama would have won by more than 20 million votes.

In 2012, there were 129.132 million votes, of which 11.677 million were recorded after Election Day. Obama won these late votes by 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.

The 2008 late vote result was similar. Obama had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. He had 52.3% of 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day, but won 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Pollsters and pundits and academics never do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never been exposed to this critical analytical modeling tool? Or is it that using it would raise issues that they would rather not talk about?

In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.

Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
This is his unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share (82,388 respondents) and True Vote Model. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.
2. Equal 95% turnout of living Obama and McCain voters.
3. Obama had 90% of Obama and 7% of returning McCain voters.
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
In 2008, Obama had 89% of returning Kerry and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
In 2008, Obama had 73% (two-party) of new voters.
Obama wins by 15.8 million votes with a 56.1% (two-party) share.

Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote

I. Vote shares required to match
Obama had 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Obama has 51.8% (2-party) and wins by 4.8 million votes.

II. Returning voters required to match
Voter turnout: 71% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters
Obama has 51.9% (two-party) and wins by 5.0 million votes.

Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections

Just 31 states were exit polled in 2012. But unadjusted state and national polls are not available. As always, only the final adjusted state and national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. As always, all exit poll category cross tabs were forced to match the recorded vote. There has never been any indication on the part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.

The “How Voted in 2008″ category is not included. Perhaps because it has proven to be a very useful tool in proving election fraud. In each of the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections, in order for the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Bush phantom voters from the previous election than were still living.

It must have been written in stone: There is no such thing as Election Fraud. It is just a conspiracy theory. All elections are squeaky clean. The only poll that counts is the one held on Election Day. The recorded vote is the same as the True Vote. There is no justification in responding to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.

The usual suspects may try to thrash this analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Or they will avoid discussing it. But 2012 confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Democratic unadjusted state and national exit polls (52-42%) and True Vote Model (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46%. The probability of the 8% differential is 1 in trillions. In the six elections, there were approximately 90,000 National Exit Poll respondents and 370,000 state exit poll respondents.

Pundits and naysayers are quick to accept the recorded result as gospel. They will perpetuate the myth of fair elections and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. But once again, a Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after Election Day closely matched the unadjusted state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans or that exit poll respondents misrepresented their vote. They cannot use those arguments because the analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. They will have to come up with an explanation to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.

Late Vote vs. Election Day Share

The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. The consistent incremental late vote share is very telling. But the day to day changes in his total share do not tell the full story. One must consider the difference between Total Late Vote and Election Day shares.

If Late Votes are within 3% of the True Vote, it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. The question needs to be asked: Why do late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.

2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5% He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Obama had an identical 58.0% in the True Vote Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.

2012: 117.456 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 50.3-48.1%. He won the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. But he won the 11.677 million late votes by nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).

In addition, Obama had a 56.1% True Vote (2-party) vs. 52.0% recorded. When the late state vote shares are weighted by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% True Vote. This is a strong indicator that late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national exit polls are not, and never will be, available. The mainstream media does not want you to know the truth about this, or any other, election.

Obama vote margin

Total:51.03-47.19% (3.84% margin; 129.132 million votes);51.96% 2-party
Election Day: 50.34-48.07% (2.27%; 117.456); 51.15% 2-party
Late vote: 57.99-38.29% (19.70%; 11.677); 60.23% 2-party
Weighted late vote: 53.97-41.83% (12.14%); 56.33% 2-party
True Vote Model: 56.11-43.89% (12.22%); 2-party)

The Early Vote
In 2008, the lowest exit poll discrepancies were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. The assumption is that Obama did approximately 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.

Obama’s 56.1% True Vote (no fraud) calculation assumes he had 56% on Election Day, matching his early voting share. The Late Vote share is known exactly.

If the election was fraud-free, it is unlikely that Obama’s Election Day margin would differ from his early vote margin by more than 2%. But who can believe the unverifiable machine vote counts on Election Day?

In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (WA, OR, CO, etc.) had the lowest exit poll discrepancies – and were strong Obama states. There were 131.3 million recorded votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. The mail-in ballots accounted for 31.7% of all early votes.

Calculating the Election Day Vote

The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. If we had this statistic, his Election Day share is a simple calculation. Early vote total estimates gave Obama 55% in selected battleground states. He had 60.2% of the late 2-party recorded vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Assuming he had 55% of early voters, then Romney needed 51% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. This is implausible and clearly indicates fraud.

This table determines the election day vote shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.

How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
Votes (millions)............... 126.8 65.9 61.0

Sensitivity Analysis

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares.

........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
....... Margin
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < True Vote
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late)
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Final
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012″>wikipedia.org United_States_presidential_election,_2012


................EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
Arizona.........43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas........37% 36% 25
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
Georgia.........45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii..........71% 72% 0
Idaho...........32% 33% 45
Illinois........57% 65% 130 *
Indiana.........44% 49% 88 *
Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
Kentucky........38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts...61% 55% 132 *
Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
Mississippi.....44% 46% 85
Missouri........44% 71% 12
Montana.........42% 40% 49
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania....52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8
Texas...........41% 43% 53
Utah............25% 23% 106
Vermont.........67% 65% 61
Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia...36% 36% 29
Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3

___________________________________________________________________

State and National Exit Polls

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. It shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.

The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding True Vote adjustments show that the Democrats had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.

Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. The bogus 53% National Exit Poll approval had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.

In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. But the most important crosstab was missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.

That’s why the True Vote Model always determines a feasible mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.

Early and Late Vote Questions

If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.

- Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

- Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?

- Could it be that early and late votes match the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model because they are cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?

- Could it be that the bulk of late votes are in Democratic strongholds? That may account for some of the discrepancy, but not all. In 2012, Obama had a 54.0-41.8% margin when the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.

Consider…
1) Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans.
2) There is no incentive to miscount votes after the election.
3) Democratic late vote shares always far exceed Election Day shares. This is indicative of a structural phenomenon.
4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined, there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) When late shares are weighted by total state votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.

Democratic late vote discrepancies from Election Day shares may not be proof of systemic election fraud by itself. But fraud has already been proved; late votes are a strong confirmation. Given the anomalies, there is no reason why an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.

This analysis has indicated why Obama would be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?
_______________________________________________________________________

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
8 Comments

Posted by on November 26, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013

Nate, you have it all wrong in your book. The Signal is the 52-42% Democratic lead in the 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. But we all know that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.

Nate, this is a reply to your November 2008 post Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls. It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . I would also be interested in your answers to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.

Are you asking us to ignore a) the final exit polls or b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if they are fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Based on your writings, it must be (b). After reading your “ten reasons”, I can come up with ten reasons why you have never responded to my posts.

The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”

Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. You may not be aware that Mark was the original Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.

In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Mark Blumenthal then attemped a defense of Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?

Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.

Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.
NS
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

RC
Not true. I should stop right here. Exit polls have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. It stands to reason that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.

Regarding cluster samples, perhaps you are unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Adding the standard 30% cluster effect raises the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.

But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. After all, you never discuss the fraud factor. So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. The fundamental problem with all your analysis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. But that is typical of mainstream media pundits. If they discussed the fraud factor, they would be out of a job.

You apparently believe that the final Likely Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Registered Voters (RV) interviewed) are spot-on because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are young, newly registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Democrats average higher in the RV polls than in LVs and the media avoids the RVs in the month prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Democratic. Most important, pre-election polls have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.

NS
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

RC
There you go again, assuming that the recorded vote was fraud-free. Of course the Democrats always do better in the exit polls than in the recorded vote. But did you ever consider why? Perhaps you are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). The U.S. Census reported over 80 million net uncounted votes since 1968. You make the false assumption that the recorded vote is the True Vote. Uncounted votes alone put the lie to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.

You say Clinton did not win Indiana or Texas. How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Perhaps you are unaware that in 1992 there were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. The exit polls indicated that he won Indiana by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). But they were both likely stolen by Bush. Clinton lost Indiana (42.9-36.8%) by 138,000 votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Note that we are not even considering vote-switching from Clinton or Perot to Bush, just the uncounted votes.

In 1996, there were 8.7 million net uncounted votes – again, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton won the Indiana exit poll by 50-40%, but Dole won the recorded vote by 117,000, 47.1-41.6% (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. And this does not include vote switching from Clinton or Perot to Dole, just the uncounted votes.

NS
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.

RC
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny Obama the nomination. Obama easily won the all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.

NS
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

RC
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?

NS
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

RC
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

You quote a biased GOP pollster who never did an exit poll. There is no evidence that Democrats are more likely to participate. In fact, the historical data shows otherwise. You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.

NS
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

RC
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.

Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that in the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his True Vote margin was at least 3 million more than his recorded 540,000. And that is why Gore led the state exit poll aggregate by 50-45%.

You are either unaware or choose to ignore the fact that in Florida there were over 180,000 spoiled ballots (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. You apparently believe the GOP con that the spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined GOP election officials discarded Democratic absentee ballots and included GOP ballots that were filed after the due date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?

If you really believe that Bush won both the national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. You ignore the strong evidence that the meltdown was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. And of course, you ignore the election fraudsters that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. According to you, it is all just noise, never human corruption.

NS
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

RC
As a quant, you should ask how was it that Kerry led by 51-48% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) but Bush led at 1:00am at the final (13660) after just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. It was Kerry who led the final unadjusted NEP by 51.7-47.0%.

Are you aware that final exit polls are always FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?

In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. But the poll was forced to match the recorded 52.9-45.6%. Are you aware that Obama had 52.4% of 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?

NS
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Geraghty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

RC
Really? Are these fabricated? You are apparently unaware of the National Exit Poll timeline. Kerry led by 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. But at approximately 1:00am, Kerry responders were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.

NS
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

RC
Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the GOP is always trying to suppress the vote. The National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters and that Obama had 72% of new voters in 2008. But at least you now agree that exit polls are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.

NS
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.

RC
I suggest that you do your homework. You will surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. You want your readers to believe that the recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.

In 2008, Obama had a recorded 52.9% share and won by 9.5 million votes. But he had to overcome the 5% fraud factor. You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the True Vote Model which used the same adjusted final NEP vote shares.

The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 NEP implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush voters. The True Vote Model calculated a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Bush split. Bush won the bogus recorded vote by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

And you would also surely agree that there could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 NEP since just 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Roper website (nearly 500,000 exit poll respondents). The Democrats led the polls by 52-42%; but just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?

Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.

You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 126 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Only 14 would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 126, 123 “red-shifted” to the Republican and THREE to the Democrat. The probability is 5E-106. Can you explain it?
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000000000 00000000000 0000000000 000005

Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.

—————————————————-
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
1 Comment

Posted by on November 17, 2012 in Media, Rebuttals

 

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Matrix of Deceit: Election Myths, Logic and Probability of Fraud

Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability

Oct. 29, 2012

Everyone thinks about problems every day. But how sure are they that their conclusions on how to solve them are valid? My new book Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts deals with uncertainty in our election systems. How do we know that the votes are counted as cast? If the information we are given is tainted, how do we know? We must distinguish between intuitive and logical reasoning. Yet decisions must be made everyday where there are multiple choices.

Which make the most sense? Which is the most probable? If you flip a coin and it comes up heads five times in a row, is the next flip more likely to be tails? Is a baseball player with a .300 batting average who has not had a base hit in his last 10 at bats due to get one his next time up? In decision making, we always need to consider probabilities.

In mathematics we need unambiguous definitions and rules. In other words, we need logical thinking. Logic is defined as a systematic study of the conditions and procedures required to make valid inferences.

We start with a statement and infer other statements are valid and justified as a consequence of the initial statement. It is important to note that logical inference does not mean the statement is true, only that it is valid. If the starting statement is true, then a logically derived result must also be true.

For example, it is a statement of fact that Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, so there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. But according to the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is clearly impossible.

Furthermore, since the 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible and adjusted to match the recorded vote, then the recorded vote must also have been impossible. This simple deductive reasoning proves 2004 Election Fraud. But the recorded 2000 vote was also fraudulent – as were all elections before that. None reflected true voter intent. The simple proof: there were 6-10 million uncounted votes in every election prior to 2004. Votes cast exceeded votes recorded by 6-10 million. And 70-80% of the uncounted votes were Democratic.

Each National Exit poll is forced to match the bogus recorded vote based on bogus returning voters from the prior bogus election. It’s a recursive process. The polls assume all elections are fair and accurate. The same returning voter logic applied to the 1988, 1992 and 2008 elections shows that they were also fraudulent; the National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote by indicating there were more returning Bush voters than were alive to vote. The corporate media has never seen fit to explain these recurring impossibilities.

Science is “cumulative”. New developments may refine or extend past knowledge. There is no such thing as a foolproof system. What is needed is a probability-based system for many types of problems. It is the only rational way of thinking.

There is no way to eliminate all risk (error) in a system model (or election poll). The problem is to evaluate risk and measure it based on a probability analysis. Every important problem requires a comparison of the odds. Probability analysis supplements classical logical thinking but does not replace it. In fact, classical logic is required in every step in the development of probability theory.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
4 Comments

Posted by on October 29, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov 5, 2012

The final 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote. His projected 51.6% two-party recorded share was close to the actual 51.9%. But Obama actually did much better in the True Vote forecast (391 EV, 56% two-party). As usual, the systematic fraud factor was in effect, causing a 4-5% red-shift. But Obama overcame the fraud, just as he did in 2008.

The final 2008 Election Model was also right on the money. It forecast Obama would have 53.1% and 365.3 expected EV compared to his actual recorded 52.9% share and 365 EV. But he had a 58.0% True Vote Model share and 420 EV. His 58.0% share of the unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents) confirmed the True Vote Model.. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (17,836 respondents).

The Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. The election is assumed to be held on the latest poll date.

Final Forecast: 11/06/2012 9am
Obama: 320.7 expected electoral votes; 99.6% win probability (498 of 500 trials).
He has a 332 snapshot EV (actual total).
He leads the state poll weighted average by 49.3-46.2% (51.6% 2-party share).
He leads 50.4-47.0% in 16 of 18 Battleground states with 184 of 205 EV.

Obama leads Romney in the RCP National average: 48.8-48.1%.
Rasmussen and Gallup are Likely Voter (LV) polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Romney 49-48%.
Gallup: Romney 50-49%. It was 51-46% a week ago.

Obama leads in the Rand poll 49.5-46.2% (closely matching the state polls). Unlike the national LV polls, the Rand poll doesn’t eliminate respondents but rather weights them on a scale of 1-10 (based on voter preference and intention to vote).

The 3% Obama margin increase in the Rand poll over the national LV polls illustrates why the LVs understate Obama’s margin by using the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). LV polls are a subset of the registered voter (RV) sample. They always understate the Democratic share. The majority of voters eliminated by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) are Democrats.


The True Vote Model indicates that Obama would have 55.2% of the two-party vote with 371 expected EV in a fraud-free election. Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?

2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model (html)
- The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. The expected electoral vote is the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

- The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

The model calculates an estimated True Vote forecast for the National aggregate or any state. The calculation is displayed below the input data section. State poll-based national vote shares, electoral vote and probabilities are displayed on the right side of the screen.

2008 True Vote 2012 Vote Pct Obama Romney
Obama 76.2 58.0% 72.4 68.8 54.2% 90% 10%
McCain 53.0 40.3% 50.3 47.8 37.7% 7% 93%
Other. 2.20 1.66% 2.10 1.97 1.6% 50% 50%
DNV ...................8.27 6.5% 59% 41%
Total 131.4 100% 124.8 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
..............True Vote........... 71.1 55.7
............. Recorded Vote....... 51.0% 47.2%
............. Projected 2-party... 51.6% 48.4%
............. Electoral Vote
............. Projected Snapshot.. 332 206
............. 500 Simulation Mean. 321 217
............. Expected True EV.... 385 153
............. EV Win Probability.. 99.8%

This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.

The polling data is from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Electoral-vote.com websites. The simulation uses the latest state polls.

View this 500 election trial simulation electoral vote frequency graph.

1988-2008: 274 State exit polls. An 8% Discrepancy

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. But they led both state and national exit polls by 52-42%. There were approximately 375,000 respondents in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote. 
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Republicans. Only about 137 would normally be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 135 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 131 of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.
 

No exit polls in 19 states

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six corporate media giants which funds the pollster Edison Research to do exit polling in the U.S and abroad. The NEP announced that they would not exit poll in 19 states, 16 of which are universally thought of as being solid RED states. Or are they? 

In 2008, Obama won exit polls in AK, AL, AZ, GA, NE, SD. He came close to winning in TX, KY, SC, TN, MS. These former RED states may have turned PURPLE. View this worksheet in the model. 

The bad news is that the NEP decision to eliminate the polls makes it easier for vote margins to be padded and electoral votes flipped. Without the polls, it is much more difficult to calculate the statistical probabilities of fraud based on exit poll discrepancies. In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats led the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42%, but by just 48-46% in the official recorded vote. This is a mathematically impossible result which proves systemic election fraud.

The good news is that the post-election True Vote Model should find implausible discrepancies in the recorded state and national votes. After all, that is what it was designed to do.

Sensitivity Analysis

The pre-election TVM built in the 2012 Election Model uses alternative scenarios of 2008 voter turnout and defection rates to derive a plausible estimate of the total final share. The returning voter assumptions are based on Obama’s 58% True Vote (a plausible estimate) and his 53% recorded share. The latter scenario results in vote shares that are close to the LV polls.

The sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios is an important feature in the model. The model displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. The tables display nine scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Registered and Likely Voters

Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model.

Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of Registered Voter polls and are excellent predictors of the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote. One month prior to the election, the RV polls are replaced by LVs. An artificial “horse race” develops as the polls invariably tighten.

The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) understates the voter turnout of millions of new Democrats, thereby increasing the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in RV polls than in the LVs. Based on the historical record, the Democratic True Vote share is 4-5% higher than the LV polls indicate. The LVs anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55% True Vote share.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the True Vote. The closer they are, the better they look. They never mention the fraud factor which gets them there, but they prepare for it by switching to LV polls.

The disinformation loop is closed when the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

2004 and 2008 Election Models

The 2004 model matched the unadjusted exit polls. Kerry had 51.7% and 337 electoral votes. But the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The National model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million True Vote margin was too big to steal.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicates that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Unadjusted state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded share.

But the media never discussed the fact that Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls and the corresponding Recorded Votes.

The True Vote Model

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. The TVM was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (83,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

In projecting the national and state vote, a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. The TVM uses estimated 2008 voter turnout in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate result.

There are two basic options for estimating returning voters. The default option assumes the unadjusted 2008 exit poll as a basis. The second assumes the recorded vote. It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

There are two forecast options in the model. The default option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls. The second is based on the state True Vote. The fraud factor is the difference between the two.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Obama wins the state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.
1. The Snapshot EV is a simple summation of the electoral votes. It could be misleading if close state elections favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average of the 500 simulated election trials.
3. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.

The Mean EV approaches the Theoretical EV as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national margin of error is 1-2% lower than the MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables an analyst to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
- An incremental change in vote shares. A red flag would be raised if the match required that Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).

- Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

- Setting the returning voter option to the 2008 recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the 2008 recorded vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Therefore, the model vote shares will closely match the likely voter polls.

Check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In the 2006 midterms, the adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to match the House 52-46% Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

The post-election True Vote Model determined that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Exit pollsters and media pundits have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Republican responders. But they will not even try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Published 10/27/12:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
28 Comments

Posted by on October 17, 2012 in 2008 Election, 2012 Election

 

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Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?

Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?

Richard Charnin

Oct. 4, 2012

The decision to eliminate 2012 election exit polls in 19 states by the National Election Pool is a blow to Election Integrity. Unadjusted state exit poll data have been a major component in calculating exit poll discrepancies.

Of course, we don’t get to see the unadjusted exit poll numbers until months or years after the election. But having the data for just 31 states means that it will no longer be possible to compare the total weighted average of the state polls to the official recorded share.

The full set was required in the 1988-2008 unadjusted state-exit-polls statistical reference to show that in the six presidential elections, the Democrats won the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by a 52-42% margin. Their recorded margin was just 48-46%.

These states will be excluded: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. This worksheet/graph displays 2008 recorded vote and exit poll statistics for each state.

Although not battleground states, they are still required to calculate the total weighted average National Vote Share. In fact, the unadjusted exit polls in these states showed that Obama did much better in the polls than the recorded vote..

McCain led Obama by 55.3-43.4% (3.4 million) in the 19 states, but only by 51.2-47.3% (1.1 million) in the corresponding exit polls. Obama actually won the exit polls in Alaska, Nebraska and Georgia. He was exactly tied with McCain in South Dakota.

Romney may assume that Obama will win the overall popular vote, just like Bush assumed Kerry would in 2004. Bush could not have a repeat of the 2000 election in which Gore won the popular vote. Bush needed votes in close battleground states like Ohio in order to capture the all-important electoral vote, but he also needed to win a popular vote “mandate”. Given the exit polls in vote-rich Democratic states like New York and California, Kerry’s margins were reduced by one-third. No one even considered that the official counts were fraudulent since Kerry won the states in landslides. The focus was on Ohio.

Consider Texas with its 38 electoral votes and 8 million popular votes. Obama lost the Texas exit poll by 6.1% (52.3-46.2) and the recorded vote by 11.8% (55.4-43.6), a 460,000 difference in margin. With a large and growing Hispanic vote, could Obama have a chance of actually winning Texas?

Without having the exit poll, it will be more difficult to estimate if the official, recorded vote is legitimate. If Romney’s true Texas margin is padded by 500,000, why would anyone be suspicious without an exit poll?

But we do have the True Vote Model , which can calculate the net defection of returning Obama voters that would be required to match the recorded vote. Maybe the TVM will provide some clues in lieu of the exit polls.

In 2008, in order to match the Texas recorded vote, McCain needed 21% of returning Kerry voters while Obama had 15% of returning Bush voters – a 6% net defection of Kerry voters.

Is the corporate media preparing for 2004 redux? The pollsters will continue to provide the National Exit Poll, a subset of the state polls which includes just 20% of the state respondents. But as it is standard operating procedure, the poll will be forced to match the recorded vote. It’s a moot point, since we are not going to see the unadjusted, pristine poll numbers until long after the election, if then.

The Director of Elections for ABC News, a member of the consortium that runs the exit poll, said the aim “is to still deliver a quality product in the most important states,” in the face of mounting survey costs, partially due to the continued rise in the number of cell phones which increases the cost of phone surveys.

He says that “the decision by the National Election Pool — a joint venture of the major television networks and The Associated Press — is sure to cause some pain to election watchers across the country”. He’s right about that.

But how much is transparency in our elections worth?

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model (2-party shares)
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on October 4, 2012 in 2012 Election, Uncategorized

 

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9/26/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 342 EV; 100% Win Probability

9/26/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 342 EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept. 26, 2012

Update Note: Click this link to the final 2012 forecast. It was exactly right: Obama had 51.6% (2-party) and 332 EV with a 99.6% win probability. But his True Vote was 55% with 380 EV. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 EV and 52.9% with a 100% win probability. But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV. http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model uses two forecast methods. The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation is based on the latest state polls. The True Vote Model calculates vote shares based on a feasible estimate of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares. The model is updated periodically for the latest state and national polls. The projections assume the election is held on the latest poll date.

Obama increased his expected electoral vote from 320 to 342 by gaining the lead in the North Carolina and Iowa polls. The expected electoral vote is based on the state win probabilities. If the election were held today, the Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation indicates that Obama would have a 100% probability of winning as he won all 500 election simulation trials. But there are six weeks to so.

Obama’s 49.2-44.3% margin in the weighted state pre-election polls is very close to his 48.9-44.9% lead in the RCP national average – a joint confirmation. His lead increased to 50-44% in the Gallup RV tracking poll (2% MoE, 3050 sample).

2004 and 2008 Election Models

The 2004 model matched the unadjusted exit polls. Kerry had 51.7% and 337 electoral votes. But the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The national model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the state model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes. But Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the True Vote Model. His 23 million vote margin was too big to steal. This is the whopper no one in the media talks about: Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

Forecast Summary

Approximately 7% of voters are undecided and may hold the key to the election. I suspect they are mostly Democrats disillusioned with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. The model currently assumes an equal split of the undecided vote. If undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election.

The Likely Voter (LV) polls anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 56.3% True Vote share and 402 electoral votes.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. The simulation uses the latest state polls. Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.


9/26/2012
UVA = undecided voter allocation = 50/50%
True Vote Model Obama Romney
True Vote...... 56.3% 43.7% (see model)
Expected EV.... 402 136 EV = sum(state win prob (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
Snapshot EV.... 410 128 Sum of state EV
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0%

State Polls
Average........ 49.2% 44.3% (state vote-weighted average)
Projection..... 52.4% 47.6% (RCP Polls + UVA)
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.5% 5.5% (3.0% MoE)
Expected EV.... 342.4 195.6 EV = sum(state win prob(i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
Snapshot EV.... 343 195 Sum of winning state electoral votes

National Polls
Average........ 48.9% 44.9% (RCP poll average)
Projection..... 52.0% 48.0% (RCP polls + UVA)
Pop. Win Prob.. 97.5% 2.5% (2.0% MoE)
Gallup......... 50% 44% (3050 RV sample, 2.0% MoE)
Rasmussen...... 46% 46% (1500 LV sample, 3.0% MoE)

Monte Carlo Simulation (500 Election trials)
Projection..... 52.4% 47.6% (RCP state polls + UVA)
Mean EV........ 341.8 196.2 (average of 500 election trials)
Maximum EV..... 375 163
Minimum EV..... 309 229
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0% (500 wins/500 election trials)

Polling samples are based on prior election recorded votes – not the previous True Vote or unadjusted exit poll. Likely voter (LV) polls discount the pervasive systematic fraud factor. They are traditionally excellent predictors of the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote.

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. But they led both state and national exit polls by 52-42%. There were approximately 375,000 respondents in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Based on the historical record, Obama’s True Vote share is about 4-5% higher than the latest polls indicate. It is a certainty that he will lose millions of votes on Election Day to fraud. The only question is: Will he overcome the systemic fraud factor? As of today, it appears he will.

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. The TVM was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (83,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Unadjusted state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

In projecting the national vote, the required input to the TVM are returning 2008 voter turnout rates in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate turnout . A 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. There are two options for estimating returning voters. The default option assumes that 2008 voters return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Three tables are generated consisting of nine scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) the Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. The output tables display resulting vote shares, vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500 election trials

There are two forecast options in the simulation model. The default option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls. The second uses projections based on the state True Vote. The difference between the two approximates the fraud factor.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Obama wins the state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Trend/Chart” worksheet, The data is displayed graphically in the ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.
1. The Snapshot EV is a simple summation of the state electoral votes. It could be misleading since there may be several very close elections which favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average electoral vote of the 500 simulated elections.
3. The Theoretical (expected) EV is the product sum of all state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.

The Mean EV approaches the Theoretical EV as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46%. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
- Adjusting vote shares by an incremental change. A red flag would be raised if the match required, if for example Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).

- Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

- Setting the returning voter option to the 2008 recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the 2008 recorded vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Therefore, model vote shares will closely match the likely voter polls.

Check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first one to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. The forecast closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats won the House by a 52-46% vote share. But the 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that they would have 56.4% – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied. The post-election True Vote Model determined that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Exit pollsters and media pundits have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Republican responders. But they will not even try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Virtually all early pre-election polls are of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is the Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

One month prior to the election, pollsters replace the full RV sample polls with LV subsamples. The RV polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in RV polls than in the LVs.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the True Vote. And they are usually right. The closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters were allocated< They have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

In pre-election and exit polls:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote.
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted" to the Republicans. Only about 137 would normally be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on September 26, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.22,2013

In any statistical study, the best data must first be collected. The following election fraud analysis is based on the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database.

The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Exit polls are available for 274 state presidential elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Exit polls are surveys conducted in selected voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Voters are randomly selected as they leave the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (Democrat, Republican, Independent), 6) philosophy (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

In this analysis we consider the most important question: who did you vote for? Having this information, we calculate the discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Note that respondents are not asked to provide personal information. There is no excuse for not releasing exit poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.

Key results

- Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Republicans is ZERO. One would normally expect that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicanss.

- Of the 274, there were 55 state elections in which Republicans won the vote and the Democrats won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Iowa and Minnesota in 2000) in which they won the exit poll. The probability of this occurrence is virtually ZERO. If the elections were fair, the number of flips would be nearly equal.

- The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).

- 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). There is a ZERO probability that the one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on current and previous election votes cast (Census), voter mortality and returning voter turnout. Published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares were applied to new and returning voters. The TVM closely matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls in each election. It shows that the exit poll discrepancies were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the NEP to match the recorded vote. The exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. These adjustments are clearly indicated by the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..

The bedrock of statistical polling analysis is the Law of Large Numbers. As the number of observations in a survey increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. For instance, in coin flipping, as the number of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.

The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). It is used throughout statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Note that a normally-distributed variable has a symmetric distribution about its mean.

The Binomial distribution distribution calculates the probability P that a given number of events (successes) would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. For instance, the probability of flipping heads (a success) is 50%. In a fair election, the probability that the exit poll would flip from the Democrat to the Republican is also 50%.

The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. For instance, there is a 5% (1 in 20) probability that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.

The Binomial distribution converges towards the Poisson as the number of trials (n) approaches infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution B(n,p) if n is sufficiently large and p sufficiently small.

The exit poll margin of error is based on the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.

Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll

This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is a subset of the state polls. The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. But the NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote with nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004. Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.

Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Bush voters or 38.4% of the 122.3 million who voted. But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters). There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.

So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23.1 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49.7 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4.7 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125.7 100% 65.07 58.83 1.84

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout

DNV. 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Bush 52.6 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47.9 110% (impossible 2000 voter turnout)
Other 3.7 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122.3 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2

Ohio 2004 presidential election
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% (119,000 vote margin). In the exit poll, 2020 voters were sampled, of whom 1092 voted for Kerry (54.1%) and 924 for Bush (45.7%). There was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) Kerry won the election and b) of Bush getting his recorded vote share.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s True Vote was within 2.8% of his exit poll share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. The Normal distribution calculates a 99.8% probability that Kerry won Ohio.
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)

Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. The probability that the 5.1% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). So which most closely represented how the True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?

1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Roper Center site, which comprised 68.7 million (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Dukakis led the 24-poll aggregate by 51.6-47.3%. Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. The exit poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).

Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 49.8-49.2%, but Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%, a 7 million vote margin. According to the Census, 102.2 million votes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. Dukakis had approximately 8 million (75%) of the uncounted votes (see below). That may be one of the reasons why Dukakis won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.

Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Democrats leading in the exit polls to the Republicans winning the recorded vote is given by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P= 1.13E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is ZERO.

The MoE was exceeded in 131 exit polls in favor of the Republicans. The Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.

In pre-election polls, the margin of error (MoE) is based strictly on the number of respondents. In exit polls, however, a "cluster factor" is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the MoE was exceeded in 1988-2008 (and the corresponding probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.

The MoE was exceeded in 135 of 274 exit polls assuming a 30% "cluster factor" (the base case). Although 30% is the most common estimate, political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Poll Spreadsheet Reference. The purpose is to determine the number of exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded over a range of cluster factors. Even with extremely conservative cluster factor assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a ZERO probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in the six elections. Were the massive discrepancies due to inferior polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud - beyond any doubt?

Overwhelming Evidence
The one-sided results of the 375,000 state exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Republicans in every election since 1988.

Fraud certainly cost the Democrats at least two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.

To those who say that quoting these impossible probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.

Media polling pollsters, pundits and academics need to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create their own True Vote models. So-called independent journalists need to discuss the devil in the details of systemic election fraud. They can start by trying to debunk the analysis presented here.

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied
Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares as measured by:
1) Recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Unadjusted State Exit Polls: 51.7-41.6%
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%

True Vote Model (method based on previous election returning voters)
5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Method 2: 51.6-42.0% (allocation of uncounted votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
8) Method 4: 53.0-40.6% (recursive True Vote)

The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in the following states. The corresponding decline in electoral votes cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections:

1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis' electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. The U.S. Vote Census indicated that there were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Since only 24 states were exit polled, a proxy equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.

The rationale for deriving the estimate is Method 2 of the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Democrat. The resulting 51.6% average Democratic share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.

1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton's EV flipped from from 501 to 370.

1996 (11): AL CO GA IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton's EV flipped from 464 to 379.

2000 (12): AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE to win)
Gore's EV flipped from 382 to 267.

2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry's EV flipped from 349 to 252.

2008 (7): AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama's EV flipped from 419 to 365.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama's projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on June 25, 2012 in True Vote Models

 

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The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

The myth that the early 2004 exit polls were biased for Kerry is refuted by the National Exit Poll (NEP) timeline. Kerry had 51% at 4pm (8,349 respondents). His exit poll share remained constant up to the final 13,660 respondents (51.7%). The pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to have the Final NEP match the recorded vote. Assuming that Kerry had 51.7% of 125.7 million votes cast, he won by nearly 6 million votes. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

Of course, ALL National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs also had to be adjusted to match the vote. In the NEP “Voted in 2000″ crosstab, 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 Bush voters were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, there were at least 5 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS. The NEP also claims that just 37% of Kerry voters were returning Gore 2000 voters. That is ridiculous; Gore had 540,000 more recorded votes than Bush. Once again, the 6% red-shift rears its ugly head (43-37=6%). THIS SIMPLE BASIC LOGIC PROVES MASSIVE 2004 ELECTION FRAUD.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

To view the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database click this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

The source data is provided by the Roper Center UConn

The data for each election is viewed by clicking the indicated tab at the top of the screen. State exit polls are displayed in the same row as the recorded vote. The national aggregate exit poll is calculated by weighting the state exit poll shares by votes cast.
Aggregate National share = Sum(exit poll(i) * state weight(i)) / National Votes Cast, i = 1,51 states

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 15% 62% 37% 1%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 42% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 61% 12% 27%

Total 100% 51% 47% 2%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents 
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1% 

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 59% 39% 2%
Gore. 38% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 65% 13% 22%

Total 100% 50.9% 47.1% 2.0%

11/3/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3% 64% 17% 19%

Total 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (true sample)
Data Source: Roper Center UConn

Kerry 51.7%; Bush 47.0%

Total Kerry Bush Other
13660 7064 6414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

Vote04  Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 18.4% 57% 42% 1%
Gore. 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.75% 64% 17% 19%

Total 100% 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted sample)
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct exit poll discrepancy was a nearly identical 6.5%.

Final NEP (forced to match)
Kerry 48.3%; Bush 50.7% 

Final Kerry Bush Other
13660 6593 6930 137
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore. 37% 90% 10% 0% << GORE 37%? HE WON THE RECORDED VOTE BY 540,000
Bush. 43% 9% 91% 0% << BUSH 43%?
Other 3% 71% 21% 8%

Total 100% 48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Unadjusted NEP: Gender Demographic
Kerry 51.8%; Bush 47.2%

Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0%

Total.. 100% 51.8% 47.2% 1.0%

Final Adjusted (forced to match recorded vote)
Kerry 47.8%; Bush 51.2%

Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0%

Total.. 100% 47.8% 51.2% 1.0%

True Vote Model
Kerry 53.5%; Bush 45.1%

Voted04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17.0% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 41.5% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush. 38.0% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 3.50% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 100 53.5% 45.1% 1.4%

2008
Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents), but just a 52.87% recorded share. The pollsters had to effectively reduce Obama’s respondents from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force the final NEP to match the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 58%.

Click for the Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17836 respondents)

Final NEP (Unadjusted)
Obama 61.0%; McCain 37.2%

Sample Obama McCain Other
17836 10873 6641 322
Share 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

Final NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.6%

Sample Obama McCain Other
17,836 9,430 8,137 269
Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (True Vote)
Obama 58.0%; McCain 40.4%

Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush. 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.2% 5.9 4.5% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%

Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes .... .... 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2%

Final National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded)
Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.6%

Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0% << 37.0% KERRY?
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% << 46.0% BUSH? 9% DIFFERENTIAL?
Other 4.6% 5.3 4.0% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%

Total 100% 131.5 100% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes .... .... 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

Final National Exit Poll – Gender (forced to match recorded)
Obama 52.7%; McCain 45.4%

Gender Mix Obama McCain Other
Male.. 47.0% 49.0% 48.0% 3.0%
Female 53.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%

Total. 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
1 Comment

Posted by on February 21, 2012 in 2004 Election, Media

 

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Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin

Feb. 8, 2012

It never ends. The media still wants us to believe that Bush won the 2004 election by a 3 million vote margin, 50.7-48.3%. And they still call those who insist that he stole the election “conspiracy nuts”. But they never debunked the overwhelming evidence that the election was a massive fraud. They just besmirch the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls which showed that Kerry won.

The pundits resorted to claims that “the exit polls behaved badly”, “Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed by the exit pollsters”, “Returning Gore voters lied about their past vote”, “There was no correlation between Vote Swing from 2000 and the 2004 exit poll red-shift”. All were proven false. They have nothing left.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

On the contrary, even after inflating exit poll vote shares and voter turnout to benefit Bush, the following True Vote sensitivity analysis shows that Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Kerry won a landslide. The election was stolen, just as it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

The Final National Exit Poll on the CNN and NY Times election sites show that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. As we all should know by now, exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water. The effort and expertise involved in exit poll sample design is effectively a sham; the actual, pristine exit poll results are always adjusted to match the recorded vote. In other words, they always assume zero election fraud. The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

This workbook contains a detailed comparative analysis of the 1988-2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

Let’s now review the 2004 Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The Final indicates that 52.6 million (43%) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 45.1 million (37%) were Gore voters. As we have shown numerous times before, this is an impossible scenario.

Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 5% (2.5 million) of Bush 2000 voters died, so at most 48 million returned to vote in 2004.

Note: There were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s True Vote margin was at least 4 million. But we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

But 100% turnout is impossible; therefore had to be fewer than 48 million returning Bush voters. Assuming 98% turnout, 47 million returned in 2004. That is 5.6 million less than the 52.6 million indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters came to vote in 2004.

So where did these mysterious phantom Bush voters come from? What does that tell us about the Final? And since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

Unlike the impossible Final 2004 NEP, the True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Bush and Gore voters. An estimated 98% of living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

The True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

Even if we use the bogus 2000 recorded vote which understated Gore’s True Vote as a basis for returning Bush and Gore voters and apply 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry is the clear winner of the Base Case scenario. He has 52.2% and a 7.3 million vote margin – with a 97% win probability.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s preliminary NEP vote shares were inflated and that the Final shares listed on CNN should be used. In other words, reduce Kerry’s 57% share of new voters to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters 9%. We’ll do better than that.

View the True Vote Model sensitivity analysis tables. In the worst case scenario, Kerry has just 53% of new voters and 8% of Bush voters. Behold! Kerry is still the winner by 3.5 million votes with a 50.7% share and a 83% win probability.

The analysis is conservative in that it uses the 2000 recorded vote as a basis for calculating returning voters. But with a clear majority of 6 million uncounted votes, Gore must have done much better than his recorded 540,000 margin.

Let’s use the 2000 True Vote (Gore had 50.4% and won by 4.7 million) as a basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. The increase in returning Gore voters has the effect of raising Kerry’s True Vote share to 53.6%. He wins the base case scenario by 10.7 million votes with a 99.8% win probability.

Kerry also wins the worst case scenario in which he has 53% of new voters and 8% of Bush voters. He has a 52.1% share, a 7.0 million vote margin with a 96.8% win probability.

Note that Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660) respondents with a 51.7% share.
The Final NEP (also 13660 respondents) has Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

The base case assumes an equal 98% turnout of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Gore voters and 98% of Bush voters return. Kerry is still the winner by 7.9 million with a 52.4% share. He also wins the worst case scenario by 3.8 million with 50.8%.

The absolute worse case scenario assumes a) the 2000 recorded vote as the basis, b) 90% returning Gore voter turnout in 2004, c) 98% returning Bush voters, d) Kerry wins 8% of returning Bush voters, 91% of returning Gore voters and 53% of new voters. Kerry still wins by 500,000 votes.

So we have refuted the media myth that Bush won. Let us count the ways:
1. We have shown that the adjustments made to the National Exit Poll in order to force a match to the recorded vote were impossible (they required 110% of living Bush 2000 voters to returned in 2004).
2. Kerry is a 52.2% winner assuming 98% of living Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote.
3. Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes, but he won the True Vote by at least 4 million after 6 million uncounted votes are allocated. Given the 2000 True Vote as the basis for calculating returning voters, Kerry is the winner in a 10 million vote landslide with a 53.6% share.
4. Kerry wins all scenarios including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Final National Exit Poll.
5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry is the winner of every scenario.

This statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes.

http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf

The authors write:
Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s significant exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:
• Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry official vote share was much smaller than expected given Kerry exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had official Bush official vote that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Kerry share) was much smaller than expected, given Bush’s exit poll share.

RFK Jr’s famous article on Ohio:
http://archive.truthout.org/article/robert-f-kennedy-jr-was-2004-election-stolen

Now let’s see if any media pundits, election analysts or political scientists come forward to refute the evidence of fraud. Let’s see if they can prove that Bush really did win a fair election.

Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

Simulation forecast trends are displayed in the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
1 Comment

Posted by on February 7, 2012 in 2004 Election

 

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