Richard Charnin
Updated: Sept. 4, 2012
These are not conspiracy THEORIES. These are conspiracy FACTS. It’s all in the numbers.
The JFK Assassination
http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/jfk/
The probability that AT LEAST 15 JFK-related witnesses out of 1400 would have UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination is 1 in 167 TRILLION!
P = 1- Poisson(14, 1400*0.000542, true)
View the JFK Witness Spreadsheet database.
- At least 33 JFK material witnesses died unnaturally in the 3 years following the assassination.
The probability that EXACTLY 33 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(33, 3*1400*0.000542, false)
- At least 70 died unnaturally in the 14 years following the assassination.
The probability that EXACTLY 70 DIED UNNATURALLY is 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.
P = Poisson(70, 14*1400*0.000542, false)
In 1977 the House Select Committee on Assassinations investigated the murders of JFK and MLK. The HSCA determined that both were conspiracies.
In a given year we would normally expect ONE unnatural death in a random group of 1400 people. But within one year of the JFK assassination, there were 15 unnatural witness deaths – including Lee Harvey Oswald, who was shot by Jack Ruby in front of millions of television viewers on Nov. 24, 1963. Oswald said he was just a “patsy”. This analysis indicates he was telling the truth. Transcripts of Oswald’s interrogation were destroyed. He was conveniently disposed of before he could get a lawyer.
The Proof:
There are two parameters in the Poisson probability function: the expected number (a) of unlikely events and the actual number (m).
The Poisson function is: P(m) = a^m * exp(-a)/ m!
In any given year, the expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in a group of N people is equal to N times the probability (p) of an unnatural death: a= p*N
Probability 1 year
suicide……… 0.000107
homicide…… 0.000062
accidental….. 0.000359
undetermined 0.000014
Prob (p)……. 0.000542 (total)
N = 1400 the number of witnesses
p = .000542 is the probability of an unnatural death in a given year
Expected number (a) of unnatural deaths in one year:
a = 0.7588 = p*N = 000542*1400
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson probability is:
P(m) = a^m * exp (-a) / m! or
P(15) = .7588^15 * exp (-.7588)/15!
P(exactly 15 deaths) = 1 in 175,441,539,952,741 = 1 in 175 TRILLION
This graph displays the probabilities over a range of unnatural deaths and witnesses.
The probability of AT LEAST n UNNATURAL deaths in a group of N= 1400 over T years
P = 1- Poisson(n-1,1400*T*.000542, true)
The probability of AT LEAST n UNNATURAL deaths in a group of N= 1400 over T=1 year
n 1 in
1 2
2 6
3 24
4 132
5 892
6 7,195
7 67,346
8 718,040
9 8,593,044
10 114,073,493
11 1,663,713,384
12 26,445,366,889
13 455,051,758,699
14 8,427,523,639,942
15 167,145,910,421,722
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Election Fraud
Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.
The Law of large numbers and the Binomial Distribution Function
There were 274 state presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections. Of the 274, 226 red-sshifted to the Republican from the poll to the vote. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 126 of the 274. Of the 126, 123 deviated in favor of the Republican.
The probabilities are ZERO for each.
1)226 red-shift to the GOP…… 3.71E-31 =binomdist(56,68,.5,false)^4
2)126 exceed MoE……………. 7.98E-75 =poisson(126,.05*274,false)
3)123 exceed MoE (GOP)………. 5.38E-106 =poisson(123,.025*274,false)
The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site.
The True Vote Model (TVM)
The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.1% unadjusted exit poll share.
The Democrats led in the 1988-2008 election averages by the following margins…
1) recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) unadjusted STATE exit poll: 51.8-41.6%
3) unadjusted NATIONAL exit poll: 51.7-41.7
True Vote Model:
Democratic vote shares based on Prior Election…
4) Recorded Vote 50.17
5) Votes Cast 51.57
6) Exit Poll 52.50
7) True Vote 53.00
View the 1988-2008 Election Summary
The Democrats won the exit poll but lost the recorded vote in these states:
1988
CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis won the National Exit Poll with 50.3% and had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground unadjusted state exit polls. He lost by 7 million votes. There were 11 million uncounted votes.
1992
AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton had a 18 million vote margin in the unadjusted state exit polls. He won the recorded vote by just 6 million. There were 9 million uncounted votes.
1996
AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the unadjusted state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes. There were 9 million uncounted votes.
2000
AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. The election was stolen. There were 6 million uncounted votes.
2004
CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH. He won the unadjusted state AND NATIONAL exit polls by 5-6 million with a 51.1-51.7% share. The TVM indicates that he won the True Vote by 10 million with 53.5%. But the election was stolen. He lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes.
2008
AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit polls, a 23 million vote margin -exactly matching the TVM. But his recorded share was just 52.9%, a 9.5 million margin.
Media pundits, pollsters and academics refuse to discuss or analyze the data which proves that election fraud is systemic.
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9/11
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton’s_laws_of_motion
WTC Building 7 collapsed at free-fall (i.e. controlled demolition) at 5:20pm on 9/11. It was not hit by a plane. But less than half of Americans have heard of Building 7. How would they know about it? Building 7 was NEVER mentioned in the 9/11 Commission hearings or noted in the official 9/11 report.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitation
The media won’t touch this – just like they won’t discuss the facts about election fraud and JFK. Rather, thee “official” version is shown on the National Geographic Channel, the History Channel or publications such as Slate and Popular Mechanics.
Sir Isaac Newton is spinning in his grave.
Towers 1 and 2 fell at near free-fall with office debris expelled LATERALLY at a distance of 600 feet. There has NEVER been a steel-framed building that collapsed due to fires. That’s because aircraft fires burn at approximately 1500 degrees. Steel melts at 2700 degrees.
But NIST still claims that all three buildings collapsed due to office fires on 9/11 – while at the same time admitting that Building 7 fell at free-fall for 2.5 seconds. Thank you, David Chandler, for forcing NIST to admit free-fall.
And thank you, David Chandler, for your masterful presentation at the Toronto 9/11 Hearings . Viewers will be forced to either believe their lying ears and eyes (and science) or they will choose to remain in the fog of collective cognitive dissonance.
Now, what is the probability of each of the following events?
- William Rodriguez, a janitor at the WTC on 9/11, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony wouldbe ignored by the 9/11 commission.
- The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
- The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
- The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
- For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.
- Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
- April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
- NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
- NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
- There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.
- Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions.
- Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
- Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
- When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
- At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.
- A passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
- There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
- Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
- Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11.
- 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.
- There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11.
- Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
- Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
- There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
- There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.
- The media would not investigate these facts.
