# Tag Archives: Obama. sensitivity analysis

## Obama May Win the True Vote and Still Lose: The 2012 Presidential True Vote Projection Model

The 2012 Presidential True Vote Projection Model

Updated: April 29, 2012

The systemic Election Fraud that Democrats won’t talk about could cause Obama to lose – just like Gore and Kerry. The unadjusted 2008 State exit polls indicate that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% share – exactly matching the State and National True Vote Model (TVM).

Officially, Obama had 365 EV and a 52.9% recorded share. He needs at least a 55% True Vote share to break even – if you believe the TVM and the unadjusted exit polls. The model shows how Obama could win the True Vote and still lose the election.

The model will be updated periodically to include state and national pre-election polls. A Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation has been added to calculate the probability of winning under various scenarios.

Sensitivity Analysis

No model is complete without considering the effects of alternative input scenario assumptions. Sensitivity tables display Obama vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilities over a range of assumptions.

The theoretical expected EV is the product sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

Pollsters and pundits never consider election fraud as the cause of exit poll discrepancies. Likely Voter (LV) pre-election polls have usually been accurate predictors of the recorded vote. The polls are subsets of Registered Voter (RV) polls. The majority of potential voters excluded in the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are newly registered young Democrats.

Final Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even when the adjustments are mathematically impossible. Itâ€™s standard operating procedure.

Pre-election and exit poll samples consider prior election recorded vote trends. But the recorded votes always understate the true Democratic share. From 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average of the state presidential unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. The recorded margin was just 48-46%.

Of the 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 226 (82%) shifted from the exit poll in favor of the GOP – a zero (3.7E-31) probability. Of the 274, 126 (46%) exceeded the margin of error – a zero (8E-75) probability. At the 95% confidence level, about 14 would be expected to exceed. But that’s not all. Of the 126 which exceeded the margin or error, 123 (98%) moved from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the vote. The probability is zero (5.4E-106.)

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV