Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?
Updated: May 11, 2012
It is about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. They need to do a robust probability and statistical analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.
Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote; they never consider Systemic Election Fraud. But the recorded vote never equals the True Vote. The proof is simple and self-explanatory. According to the US Census, there were 80 million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. The uncounted votes were a combination of spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. And the vast majority (70-80%) of them were, not surprisingly, Democratic. Therefore, the recorded vote has never represented the will of the electorate. And the historical election data that is accepted as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.
Media pundits and political scientists never question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Even when the adjustments are mathematically impossible.
Historical evidence indicates Democratic since 1988, presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but the recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The True Vote Model confirms the exit polls. The TVM indicates that they won by 53-41%.
There were comparable deviations in senate, congressional and gubernatorial elections.
1988-2008 exit poll and recorded vote data is provided in this link:
Data Reference: The 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls
The data source is the Roper site
Prior to 2004, the primary factor in causing the exit poll discrepancies were uncounted ballots in heavily Democratic districts. But in 2002, the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) resulted in the installation of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.
It is often stated that exit polls were accurate in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. But it misleading to compare FINAL exit polls prior to 2004 to UNADJUSTED exit polls since. State and national exit polls published in the media are ALWAYS been FORCED to match the RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.
RECORDED votes have deviated sharply from the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in EVERY election since 1968. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate; they matched the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 elections. The reason why FINAL state and national exit poll exactly matched the RECORDED vote is because they have been forced to. It is standard policy. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to documented uncounted and stuffed ballots and maliciously programmed electronic voting machines.
This is how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote:
1) Bush Approval
The unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicates that 50.3% of respondents approved of Bush’s performance. Kerry won the aggregate by 51.1-47.5%. He also won the unadjusted National Exit Poll, a 13,660 subsample, by 51.7-47.0%. But in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll, Bush approval was increased to 53% to force a match to the recorded vote. Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating.
2) Party-ID
The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Democratic/Republican/Independent Party-ID. But the Final National Exit Poll changed it to to 37-37-26%. What was the rationale? In 2000, Democrats led by 39-35% and in 2004, the vast majority of new voters were registered Democrats. The 37-37 split was not plausible; it was an artificial fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.
This graph shows a near-perfect correlation between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis
The Ultimate Smoking Gun
In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 126 of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the MoE was exceeded in 37 states).
Of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 123 shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is ZERO. The red shift from the exit polls to the vote has been in ONE direction and is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.
The 148 exit poll discrepancies were distributed as follows: 1988:11, 1992:26, 1996:16, 2000:13, 2004:23, 2008:37
The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model
The TVM allows one to run scenarios over a range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares:
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model
Pre-election Polls
The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.
They also claim that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
They don’t mention that over 80 million votes (mostly Democratic) were uncounted in the 11 elections since 1968.
They don’t mention the 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 which may have cost Dukakis the election.
They have been silent about the six million uncounted votes which cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
They never consider the overwhelming evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that Democratic landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008. Or that Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
They never mention the massive documented evidence of Election Fraud, yet never stop talking about non-existent Voter Fraud. They talk about voter suppression as if it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
They refer to the final exit polls for demographic trends. But they won’t tell you that the finals are always forced to match the recorded vote – and therefore all demographic category crosstabs understate the Democratic vote.
They claim that the final 2004 pre-election polls predicted a Bush win. But they don’t tell you that the weighted average predicted a Kerry win. Or that they were based on LV polls before allocating undecided voters and that the RV polls, adjusted for undecided voters, predicted a 51-48% Kerry win.
They claim that Bush won by 3 million votes. But they won’t tell you that to match the recorded vote, the Final 2004 NEP required 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – a mathematically impossible 110% turnout.
They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they nevert mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls. The trend line predicted a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll. Approximately 20 House seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.
They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that RV polls projected that he would win by 57-41%. Or that he had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Or that he had a massive 61% in the unadjusted NEP (17836 respondents).
They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Final 2008 NEP required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.
They fail to question the 2010 midterms. The Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Giannoulias easily won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Sestak lost in Pennsylvania after leading in the exit polls.
They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 True Vote was reduced by a 5% fraud factor. Considering that the 1988-2008 average Democratic True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even in 2012. He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.
What the Pundits should be doing
- Use votes cast in their analysis (i.e. stipulate uncounted votes).
- Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using both RV and LV polls.
- Indicate that LV polls are a subset of RV polls.
- Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
- Allocate undecided and uncounted votes.
- Use voter mortality rates before estimating new and returning voter turnout.
- Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
- Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
- Question why the NEP indicates more returning voters than are living.
Historical Overview
- In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (11,645 respondents) by 49.6-48.4% (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. But Bush won by 7 million recorded votes. There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.
- In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. It implied a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
- In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
- In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. He won the recorded vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
- In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6%, a 10 million vote margin, in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…
- In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.
2004 Election Model Graphs
Electoral vote and win probability
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
