1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.9-41.7% Average Democratic Margin
Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: May 9, 2012
The 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis.
The data source is the Roper website.
Unadjusted exit poll data reflect actual samples. Vote shares have closely matched the corresponding True Vote Model, which calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. But exit poll demographics displayed in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” the category crosstab weightings and/or vote shares. Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual voter response, but merely parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. The fraud factor is assumed to be zero in the final published polls.
This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes
To force State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote, ALL demographic category weights and/or vote shares must be adjusted.
In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). There were six million uncounted votes, the vast majority (75-80%) for Gore. Uncounted ballots accounted for 3-4 million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Vote switching and ballot stuffing may account for the remaining 1-2 million.
In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky suggested the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis to explain the difference: there must have been 56 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush responders. There was no evidence to back it up.
Mitofsky used the same argument to explain the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. Clinton had 43.0% recorded, a six million vote margin; he had 47.6% in the unadjusted exit poll and had a 16 million landslide. Mitofsky never mentioned the 1992 Vote Census which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Uncounted ballots accounted for half the 10 million discrepancy in margin.
Forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote
The pollsters applied their unsupported hypothesis by forcing the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote. They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 37% returning Gore voters. But 52.6 million was an impossible statistic; it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.
Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, no more than 47 million Bush 2000 voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. There had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.
In fact, Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%.
Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Bush voters, the recorded vote must have been impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.
The True Vote Model (TVM) indicated that Kerry had 53.6%. Why the difference between the TVM and the unadjusted state and national exit polls? The exit pollsters apparently designed their 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Gore won by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.
In 2008 Obama led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. As usual, the NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).
Why the discrepancy? The National Exit Poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Bush and Kerry voters comprised 46% and 37%, respectively, of the electorate. The pollsters implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 6 million votes and the True Vote Model by 10 million.
The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Final 2004 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.
Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Bush had 50.3% approval in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Therefore, the unadjusted exit polls may have understated Kerry’s True Vote by 2%. In order to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to increase Bush approval to 53%, a full 5% over the 48% average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.
Party-ID
In order to force a match the recorded vote, the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.
There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.
This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.
The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.
The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares measured by…
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate:51.88-41.71% (370,000 respondents)
3) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.86-41.65 (85,000 respondents)
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0%
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%
The Democrats won the exit poll and lost the recorded vote in the following states:
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT (Dukakis won the unadjusted Nat Exit Poll 50-49%)
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE state to win)
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
This barchart displays the trend in unadjusted exit poll, True Vote and recorded vote shares from 1988-2008.
1988-2008 Election Fraud
The discrepancies between the official recorded vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. This cannot be coincidental. The True Vote Model is confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – and vice versa.
In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, there was a massive 8% discrepancy between the exit polls (52D-42R) and the recorded vote (48D-46R). The Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52, .48, .012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion
Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
A total of 226 polls (82.4%) shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 48 shifted to the Democrat. Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been a shift of 150 to the Republican and 150 to the Democrat. What is the probability P of 226 polls red-shifting to the Republicans?
The Binomial distribution function:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
Unfortunately, the spreadsheet Binomial function cannot calculate the probability; the inputs are too large. We need to break the problem into four equal pieces: 56 of 68 exit polls red-shift with probability p.
p = Binomdist (56, 68, .5, false)
P = p*p*p*p (equivalent to P = Binomdist (224, 272, .5, false))
P = 3.7E-31
P = 1 in 2.7 million trillion trillion trillion
Note E-31 is scientific notation for 31 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3 represents .001 or 1/1000
Example: The MoE was exceeded in 126 of 274 state exit polls
Only 14 would normally be expected to since there is a 5% probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in an election. Of the 126 polls, 123 moved in favor of the Republicans (only 7 would be expected). Three favored the Democrat.
The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:
The Poisson function is used for analyzing a series of events (like in queuing systems) in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
The probability P that 123 out of 274 would favor the Republican is:
P = 5E-106 = Poisson (123, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 106 places to the right of the decimal.
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000005
P = 1 in 1.8 billion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.
For each presidential election, the following table summarizes a) the number of state elections which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote, b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican, c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican, d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote.
Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 20.. 11… 5.0E-11….. 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may very well have won a close election.
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore won by 5-7 million True votes.
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry won a 10 million True vote landslide.
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama won a 23 million True vote kandslide.
Total 226-123 ; 5.0E-106… 51.8 47.9 3.9
