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Did the GOP actually win the House?

Did the GOP actually win the House?
Richard Charnin
Nov.20, 2018
Let’s speculate given the unlikely trend in tossups and strange anomalies.
. Long-held GOP seats in California flipped (Rohrabacher,etc.)
. Broward & Palm Beach County incompetence and/or fraud.
. Arizona GOP governor won by 328,000 votes but McSally lost the senate by 30,000 after leading in early voting.
 
. Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. . On Nov.19, the Dems lead by 233-200 with 30 of 36 tossups flipping to the Dems, a 1 in 35,000 probability.
.The expected tossup split is 19 seats each and the Dems would win by 222-213. Is it inconceivable that the GOP may have won 24 of the 38 tossups and a 218-217 win?
.How many  races which leaned to the Dems in the polls actually flipped to the GOP?
 
.The pre-election 38 tossup 2-party poll average (50.50D-49.50R%) exactly matched the recorded tossup vote average (50.52D-49.48R%). Strange.
 
“Republican congressional candidate Young Kim, who just days ago was poised to be the first Korean-American woman in Congress as she led a closely contested California House race, is accusing her opponent of “harassing and intimidating” vote counters as her lead has disappeared.
 
Kim is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., in California’s 39th District, which includes part of the state’s more Republican Orange County. Last week, she held about a 3-point lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros with about 150,000 votes counted.But since then, that lead vanished, with Cisneros taking a 941-vote as of late Thursday”.
 
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Posted by on November 19, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

What does the change in 38  tossups to the final result tell us? We would normally expect an even split of 19 races going to the Dems and 19 to the Repubs. It’s like flipping a coin. But the Dems have won the vast majority (30 of 35) tossup elections. What are the odds? 1 in 105,842!

Election results are based on the recorded vote. But the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There is fraud in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given:   203D-194R  (38 tossups) on Election Day and current 233D-199R.

Assumption: Equal Dem/Rep tossup poll shares

1) P= 1 in 105,842 is the probability of the change from
203D-194R to 233D-199R
P = binomdist (30, 35, 0.5, false) = 0.0009% or 1 in 105,842

2) P = 1 in 99,569 is the probability of the change from
203D-194R to 235D-200R (assume Dems win 2 of the remaining 3 tossups)
P = binomdist (32, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.001% or 1 in 99,569

3) P = 1 in 547,629 is the probability of the change from
203D-194R to 236D-199R (assume Dems win the 3 remaining tossups)
P = binomdist (33, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.0002% or 1 in 547,629

Probability table of Dem seats given 203D-194R on Election Day

The following  table displays probabilities of winning X seats assuming a 50/50 split and a 50.5D-49.5R split (the average Dem 2-party lead) in the 38 races too close to call.

50.0D-50.0R 50.5D-49.5R
X=Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in Prob (X) 1 in
215 1.0% 101 0.9% 117
216 2.0% 50 1.7% 57
217 3.5% 28 3.2% 31
218 5.6% 18 5.2% 19
219 8.1% 12 7.6% 13
220 10.5% 9.6 10.0% 10
221 12.2% 8.2 12.0% 8.4
222 12.9% 7.8 12.8% 7.8
223 12.2% 8.2 12.4% 8.0
224 10.5% 10 10.9% 9.2
225 8.1% 12 8.6% 11.7
226 5.6% 18 6.1% 16.4
227 3.5% 28 3.9% 25
228 2.0% 51 2.2% 45
229 1.0% 102 1.1% 88
230 0.4% 228 0.5% 195
231 0.2% 581 0.2% 486
232 0.1% 1,686 0.1% 1,383
233 0.0178% 5,621 0.021% 4,519
234 0.0046% 21,781 0.0058% 17,165
235 0.0010% 99,569 0.0013% 76,918
236 0.0002% 547,629 0.0001% 414,672
237 0.00003% 3,723,876 0.000036% 2,763,934
238 0.000003% 32,583,915 0.000004% 23,705,526

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=1032811684

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msm-red-tsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5f-UGB9-zD7icp-aGMIB9DTo_Dk

 
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Posted by on November 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D Red Wave?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

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GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.
And the GOP should win the Senate by at least 54-46 seats.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 of 32 GOP seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have a 227-208 majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem seats that are too close to call.

And that is a RED WAVE.

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID Turnout Repub Dem
Rep 27% 48% 92% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 52% 48%
Total 100% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
Votes 36,640 35,286
Turnout 
Vote
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
48% 46% 44% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
49% 45% 45% 46.1% 51.45% 48.55%
50% 44% 46% 46.5% 51.96% 48.04%
51% 43% 47% 47.0% 52.45% 47.55%
52% 42% 48% 47.4% 52.93% 47.07%
53% 41% 49% 47.8% 53.41% 46.59%
Generic Poll RCP Average House seats
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194 241

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which show the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

As usual, Nate makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

But…given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.86-47.14%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

Gallup Party-ID Turnout Votes Rep Dem
Rep 27% 46% 19573 92% 8%
Dem 28% 56% 24711 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 50% 50%
Total 100% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
Votes 75,488 35,586 39,902

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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What is the probability the Democrats will win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

As usual, Nate Silver makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which shows the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

But…Given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.9-47.1%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

Generic Vote 
Gallup Party-ID Turnout Votes Rep Dem
Rep 27% 46% 19573 92% 8%
Dem 28% 56% 24711 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 50% 50%
Total 100% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
Votes 75,488 35,586 39,902
Turnout scenarios
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
46% 56% 44% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
47% 55% 45% 48.3% 47.65% 52.35%
48% 54% 46% 48.8% 48.14% 51.86%
49% 53% 47% 49.2% 48.63% 51.37%
50% 52% 48% 49.7% 49.10% 50.90%
51% 51% 49% 50.1% 49.57% 50.43%
52% 50% 50% 50.5% 50.03% 49.97%

 

 
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Posted by on November 4, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Arizona Senate Poll Analysis (Cont.)

Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2018

The latest CNN, NBC, CBS AZ senate polls show Sinema up by 4,6 and 3%. FOX has the race tied at 46%. The FOX internal numbers say otherwise.

McSally leads by 48.7-45.8%. But this is conservative as FOX gives her just 3% of Dems and 85% of Repubs. The assumption is that they split Independents 50-50%.

When will the MSM learn? You can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

https://www.scribd.com/document/392088280/Fox-Arizona-Late-October-Complete-Topline-October-31-Release#from_embed

AZ Party ID McSally Sinema
Rep 50% 85% << low 8%
Dem 40% 3% << low 92%
Ind/Other 10% 50% 50%
Total 100.0% 48.7% 45.8%
11/2 Early voting (000) 1461 ballots 611 Rep (41.8%) 495 Dem (33.9%)
Let’s make these plausible adjustments (in bold) to McSally’s shares. McSally has 51.4%.
AZ Party ID McSally Sinema
Rep 50% 88% 8%
Dem 40% 6% 92%
Ind/Other 10% 50% 50%
Total 100.0% 51.4% 45.8%
Sensitivity Analysis- McSally’s total share from worst case lower left cell (48.7%) to best case upper right (52.2%)
McSally % Rep
McSally 85% 86% 87% 88%
%Dem
8% 50.7% 51.2% 51.7% 52.2%
7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.3% 51.8%
6% 49.9% 50.4% 50.9% 51.4%
5% 49.5% 50.0% 50.5% 51.0%
4% 49.1% 49.6% 50.1% 50.6%
3% 48.7% 49.2% 49.7% 50.2%
Note: The AZ 2016 final exit poll Party ID differs from the FOX poll. But the HRC and DJT total vote shares nearly match.
AZ 2016 Party ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 28.0% 89.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Rep 32.0% 7.0% 88.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind 40.0% 44.0% 47.0% 5.0% 2.0%
Total 100.0% 44.8% 48.9% 3.8% 0.80%
Votes 2,573 1,152 1,259 98 21
Margin 107 4.2%
 
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Posted by on November 3, 2018 in 2018 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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Arizona CBS senate poll: more anomalies

Richard Charnin
10/31/2018

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The CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker shows Sinema (D) leads McSally (R) by 47-44%. But applying AZ party registration ID to the poll shares, Sinema leads by just 46.1-45.2%, a 62% win probability. Assume equal registered voter turnout (AZ1).

Note that the poll shows McSally with just 1% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans. These are implausible shares. Let’s change the shares to 6% and 88%, respectively.

McSally leads by 48.2-46.1% (AZ2), a 76% win probability.

AZ1 Reg Party-ID McSally Sinema
Rep 1288 34.7% 84% 9%
Dem 1151 31.0% 1% 91%
Ind 1272 34.3% 46% 43%
Total 3711 100% 45.2% 46.1%
AZ2 Reg Party-ID McSally Sinema
Rep 1288 34.7% 88% 9%
Dem 1151 31.0% 6% 91%
Ind 1272 34.3% 46% 43%
Total 3711 100% 48.2% 46.1%
Sensitivity Analysis
McSally wins 17 of 20 scenarios (bold)
Sinema has 46.1% in all scenarios
McSally % Dem
McSally % Rep 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
McSally
Total
90% 47.3% 47.9% 48.6% 49.2% 49.8%
88% 46.6% 47.2% 47.9% 48.5% 49.1%
86% 45.9% 46.5% 47.2% 47.8% 48.4%
84% 45.2% 45.9% 46.5% 47.1% 47.7%
McSally Win Probability matrix (3.0% MoE)
1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
90% 66.4% 73.8% 80.2% 85.4% 89.6%
88% 57.3% 65.5% 73.0% 79.5% 84.8%
86% 47.5% 56.3% 64.6% 72.1% 78.7%
84% 37.8% 46.5% 55.2% 63.6% 71.3%
Early ballot counts in AZ counties: 50.1% Rep, 38.5% Dem, 11.5% Other
CBS Poll: go to category 6
 
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Posted by on October 31, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average

Richard Charnin
Oct.29, 2018
Nov.4 update

GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have AT LEAST a 227-208 House majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem too close to call seats. And that is a RED WAVE.

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID Turnout % Registered Turnout Rep Dem
Rep 27% 48% 20424 92% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 20298 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 52% 48%
Total 100% 45.6% —- 50.94% 49.06%
Votes 71,927 36,640 35,286
Turnout scenarios
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
48% 46% 44% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
49% 45% 45% 46.1% 51.45% 48.55%
50% 44% 46% 46.5% 51.96% 48.04%
51% 43% 47% 47.0% 52.45% 47.55%
52% 42% 48% 47.4% 52.93% 47.07%
53% 41% 49% 47.8% 53.41% 46.59%
Required to match RCP
40% 58% 40% 45.0% 45.73% 54.27%
Generic Poll RCP Average House seats
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194 241

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

 
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Posted by on October 29, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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