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Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Oct.4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Eight voter turnout scenarios:
Trump wins the base case (86% Dem, 91% Rep) by 328-210 EV and 1.15 million votes.

Trump needs 89% Dem and 88% Rep turnout to match his 306 EV.
Clinton needs an implausible 92% Dem, 85% Rep turnout to tie Trump at 269 EV.
Clinton needs 93% Dem, 87% Rep turnout to win by 298-240 EV and 3.12 million.
Clinton needs 92.5% Dem, 84.5% Rep turnout to match her 2.8 million margin.

Trump vote margins are conservative since the calculations are based on state exit poll vote shares forced to match the recorded vote.

Sensitivity analysis (assume constant 87% Independent voter turnout)

Turnout Trump Votes (000) Vote Shares
Dem Rep EV Trump Clinton Margin Trump Clinton
0.85 0.92 332 64,647 62,885 1,762 47.5 46.2
0.86 0.91 328 64,347 63,195 1,152 47.2 46.4
0.87 0.90 321 64,047 63,505 542 47.0 46.6
0.88 0.89 315 63,747 63,815 -68 46.8 46.9
0.89 0.88 305 63,447 64,125 -678 46.6 47.1
0.90 0.87 289 63,147 64,435 -1,288 46.4 47.3
0.91 0.86 289 62,847 64,745 -1,899 46.1 47.5
0.92 0.85 269 62,546 65,055 -2,509 45.9 47.8
0.93 0.84 240 62,246 65,365 -3,119 45.7 48.0
0.94 0.83 240 61,946 65,675 -3,729 45.5 48.2

The 2016 Census indicates that 87.3% of registered voters turned out.
Assume Sanders primary voters did not vote or defected
Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV
Given:
– Census 2016 registered voter turnout of 87%.
– Gallup national voter affiliation (Party-ID) on Election Day:
(41% Independents, 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans)
– 28 exit poll states: vote shares forced to match recorded vote.
– 23 non-exit poll states recorded vote shares .

Assumptions: Bernie Sanders defectors…
– 5% of registered Democrats stayed home
– 4% voted for Jill Stein and 1% for Trump.
Results:
1. Adjusted Voter Turnout: 78.6% Dem, 91.6% Rep, 91.6% Ind
2. Adjusted Gallup Party-ID: 29.5% Dem, 29.1% Rep, 41.4% Ind
3. Gallup Party-ID calculated for each of the 28 exit polled states
4. Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV

Since state exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote (and likely inflated for Clinton), Trump probably did better than indicated.

…………..Clinton Trump
28 states 45.67% 47.67% Exit polls
Votes…… 50,664 52,776


23 states 43.71% 50.40% No exit polls
Votes…… 11,079 12,777


51 states 45.33% 48.13%
Votes…… 61,744 65,554

Row 130: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

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Posted by on October 4, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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CLINTON DID NOT WIN THE POPULAR VOTE: UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS AND RECORDED VOTES ARE BOGUS

Richard Charnin
Sep. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of Party-ID, recorded vote shares and unadjusted State Exit Polls. It indicates that Clinton did not win the popular vote by 2.8 million. In fact, she did not win the popular vote.

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% of registered voters turned out.
If 6% of Democratic voters stayed home because the DNC rigged the primary, then 85% of Democrats, 91% Republicans and 87% Independents voted.

2016 National
Party-ID….Dem Rep Ind

Exit Poll 36.0 33.0 31.0%
Gallup….31.0 28.0 41.0

28 Exit Poll states Party-ID 
WtdAvg 37.4 31.8 30.8%
Average 35.3 32.5 32.2
Gallup.. 31.8 28.9 39.3 (wtd average)
Gallup.. 30.0 29.6 40.4 (average)

Clinton won the recorded vote by 65.6-62.8  million (48.3-46.2%)

a) In the 28 states exit polled (110.7 million votes),
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 54.9-48.2 million (49.6-43.6%).
She won the recorded vote by 54.5-50.0 million (49.2-45.2%).

b) In the 28 states after adjustments for Gallup Party-ID and voter turnout,
Clinton wins by 52.1-51.6 million (47.1-46.6%).

c) In the 23 states that were not exit polled (25.5 million votes),
Trump won by 12.8-11.1 million (50.4-43.7%).

d) The 51 state adjusted total (136.2 million votes):
Trump wins by: 64.4-63.2 million (47.2-46.4%).

Note: the analysis does not adjust the recorded (bogus) state exit poll vote shares. It does not adjust for the effects of disenfranchised or illegal voters or purged voting rolls or votes flipped at the voting machines and central tabulators.

The bogus claim that Clinton won the popular vote is quoted ad nauseam by so-called “experts” in the media, academia and corrupt politicians. They are complicit in spreading this disinformation along with the fully discredited meme of a Russian “hack” designed to steal the election from Hillary. There is not one iota of proof.

I have written three books in which I cited pristine unadjusted exit polls to prove fraud. I believe they accurately represented the True Vote – up until the 2016 presidential election. Just because exit polls have proven to be accurate in the past (most recently in the 2016 Democratic primary) does not mean they were accurate in the 2016 election. The fact that Hillary won the popular recorded vote by 2.8 million does not mean she won the True Vote. They are never the same.

The “experts” still maintain the fiction that Clinton won the primary by 3 million votes. But the recorded vote is NEVER equal to the true vote. For some reason, talking heads never mention that simple fact. President Obama said it was not possible to steal an election. They think we are all stupid. Election Fraud is always an inside job.

The following states flipped to Trump from the unadjusted exit poll to the recorded vote and the Gallup-adjusted exit poll: FL MI NC PA WI
Minnesota flipped to Clinton.

California (3.77), Illinois (0.72) and New York (0.78) provided 5.27 million of Clinton’s adjusted margin in the 28 states. Trump won the other 25 states by 3.7 million votes.

Wisconsin
Trump did better in the Gallup-adjusted poll than the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

Unadjusted Exit Poll: Clinton 48.2-44.3% (118,000 votes)
Recorded Vote: Trump won 47.2-46.3% (23,000 votes)

CNN Adjusted Exit Poll: 35Dem-34Rep-31 Ind
Trump wins: 48.5-46.3% (67,000 votes)

Gallup Adjusted: 30.1Dem-31.9Rep-38.1Ind
Trump wins: 49.8-44.5% (157,000 votes)

WI Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem…. 30.10% 91.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep….. 31.85%  6.0% 90.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind….. 38.05% 40.0% 50.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Share 100.0% 44.5% 49.8% 3.5% 1.06%
Votes.. 2,976. 1,325. 1,482…105.. 32

Scroll to row 150 to view the state data: adjusted and recorded Party-ID and vote shares. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

 
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Posted by on September 29, 2017 in 2016 election, Election Myths

 

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Proof that Oswald was standing in front of the Texas Schoolbook Depository when JFK was shot

Proof that Oswald was standing in front of the Texas Schoolbook Depository when JFK was shot

Richard Charnin
Sept. 27, 2017

Reclaiming-Science: The JFK Conspiracy
JFK Blog Posts

The evidence is overwhelming; Oswald never fired a shot.

The experts agree: Oswald was photographed standing at the doorway of the TSBD in the Altgens6 photo taken at the time of the shooting:
http://www.oswald-innocent.com

Carolyn Arnold was an eyewitness who was never interviewed by the Warren Commission. Here’s why:
http://22november1963.org.uk/carolyn-arnold-witness-oswald

Warren Commission and later testimony from Lovelady and Frazier proves Oswald was standing on at the entrance to the TSBD https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

Why is the evidence dismissed? https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/30/oswald-in-the-doorway-why-is-the-preponderance-of-the-evidence-dismissed/

Timeline of events
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/jfk-timeline-of-events-from-1200-122pm/

Evidence Oswald was on the first floor minutes before the shooting
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/jfk-evidence-oswald-was-on-the-1st-floor-minutes-before-the-shooting/

Prove it to yourself in this survey
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/04/05/jfk-20-questions-on-oswald-in-the-doorway-it-is-not-a-test-its-an-opinion-survey/

Judyth Baker’s pixel analysis
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/jfk-judyth-baker-pixel-analysis-of-altgens6-photo-proves-oswald-is-doorman

If you believe Oswald was NOT standing in front of the TSBD, then you must believe all of the following…
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/07/14/to-believe-oswald-was-not-standing-in-front-of-the-tsbd-you-must-believe-that/

Fritz notes released in 1997: Oswald told him he was “out with Bill Shelley in front”
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/04/05/10137/

 

 
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Posted by on September 27, 2017 in JFK

 

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2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Sept.24, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% (137.5 million) of 157.6 million registered voters cast ballots, the same turnout as in the 1996-2016 elections. There were 136.2 million votes recorded – a 1% difference. In 1996-2016, there was a 3% difference between votes cast and recorded.

According to the Gallup Voter Preference Survey, on Election Day, 39.8% were Independents, 31.9% Democrats and 28.3% Republicans.

Assume registered voter turnout of
– 87% Independents
Trump won Independents by 8%. Pre-election polls indicate he won by 10%.

– 85% Democrats
(6% stayed home – or 12% of Sanders voters).
Clinton had 88% of Dems – but that assumes Jill Stein had just 2%.
Jill probably had more.

– 91% Republicans
Trump had 89%. Johnson took away votes.

Result: Trump wins by 47.6-45.2% (3.4 million votes)
Stein has 2.9% (4 million) compared to her 1.07% recorded vote (1.45 million).
So the following is CONSERVATIVE. Trump probably did better.

Party Turnout Voted….Clinton….Trump… Johnson… Stein….Other
Ind… 87%…….34.4%…….40%…….48%…….4.0%….5.0%…3.0%
Dem… 85%……27.1%…….88%……..8%…….1.0%….2.0%…1.0%
Rep… 91%…….25.7%……..7%…….89%…….3.0%….1.0%…0.0%

Vote..87.3%…….. 100%……45.2%…..47.6%……2.8%….2.9%…1.5%
Votes………………137.5……62.15…..65.51……3.81…..3.97…2.05
Recorded
Share………….. 136.22…..48.25%….46.17%…..3.29%…1.07%..1.23%
Votes…………….. 136.22…..65.72…..62.89……4.48……1.45…1.67

Sensitivity Analysis
(Trump wins all 25 turnout scenarios- see spreadsheet tables)
Trump Vote Margin
Best case: 4.9 million (48.2-44.7%)
Base case: 3.35 million (47.6-45.2%)
Worst case: 1.8 million (47.1-45.8%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=610568510

 

 
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Posted by on September 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

Richard Charnin
Sept. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

On August 3, 2016, Felix Salmon wrote: “Stone and Trump base most of their argument, such that it is, on one man. Stone refers to him as “a mathematician called Richard Charnin.”
http://splinternews.com/how-the-donald-trump-campaign-is-we…

Hey Felix, my political views are irrelevant. But I do have a lifetime membership in the Truth Party. I crunch numbers.

Salmon goes on:
“For years now, Charnin has been best known as the go-to guy for anybody who wants evidence that voter fraud is deciding elections. He’s beloved in the corner of the internet which believes that Hillary Clinton stole the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, or, for that matter, that George W Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry. When he’s not concentrating on who-killed-JFK conspiracy theories, he can generally be relied upon to say that the more left-wing candidate got more votes than the winner in major elections.

That makes Charnin a very strange bedfellow for the Trump campaign, just in terms of his political leanings. But even stranger is the idea that Trump would want his supporters to pick up Charnin’s voter fraud ball and run it all the way into the zone of democratic illegitimacy”.

I plead guilty as charged. But I am not a conspiracy theorist. I use math analysis based on published facts to prove that…
1) JFK was assassinated in a massive Coup by the Deep State:
http://www.amazon.com/Reclaiming-Science-Cons…/…/ref=sr_1_1…

2) Hillary stole the 2016 nomination:
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/…/77-billion-to-one-2…/) and

3) Kerry beat Bush easily in 2004:  http://www.amazon.com/Matrix-Deceit-Forcing-Pre-Election-Fraudulent/dp/1480077038/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1351564528&sr=8-1&keywords=matrix+of+deceit

My next book is on the 2016 election. As usual, expect the mathematical analysis you won’t ever get in the MSM.

 
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Posted by on September 22, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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2016 Election: illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

According to Greg Palast, least one million Democratic minority voters were disenfranchised via Crosscheckwhich eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Vote flipping on maliciously coded, proprietary voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Uncounted votes (spoiled ballots, disenfranchised voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

Assume 12 million uncounted: 85% to Clinton 
(2 million illegal, 5 million flip)
Trump still wins: 69.4-69.2 million (47.48-47.32%)

………..Total………Clinton….Trump……Other
Vote…..136.2……..65.7………62.9………7.6
Pct……,,100%..,….48.3%…..46.2%……5.6%

Illegal… 2.0…….  -1.70…..  -0.30…………0 non-citizens
Unctd…..7.0………5.95……..1.05…………0 disenfranchised 
Flip……..5.0…….  -5.0……….5.0………….0 voting machine

Net……141.2……64.9…….68.7………7.6
Adjusted………..46.0%….48.6%……5.4%

Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Best case: (9% flip, 90% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/millennials-make-up-almost-half-of-latino-eligible-voters-in-2016/ph_election-2016_chap1-chart-08/

Total Clinton Trump Other
Recorded vote 136.2 million 65.7 62.9 7.6
48.25% 46.17% 5.59%
Illegal 2.0 -1.7 -0.3 0
Uncounted 7.0 5.95 1.05 0
Vote Flip 5.0 -5.0 5.0 0
Adjusted 141.22 64.9 68.7 7.6
  46.0% 48.6% 5.4%
7.0 million uncounted 85% to Clinton
Illegals to 
Clinton
 
  80% 85% 90%
Flip to Clinton   Trump Vote
9% 69.20 69.30 69.40
8% 68.57 68.67 68.77
7% 67.94 68.04 68.14
Vote Flip   Trump Vote
9% 49.00% 49.07% 49.14%
8% 48.56% 48.63% 48.70%
7% 48.11% 48.18% 48.25%
Vote Flip   Clinton vote
9% 45.61% 45.54% 45.47%
8% 46.06% 45.98% 45.91%
7% 46.50% 46.43% 46.36%
Vote Flip   Trump margin
9% 4.79 4.99 5.19
8% 3.53 3.73 3.93
7% 2.27 2.47 2.67
 
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Posted by on September 20, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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2016 Pre-election Polls in 16 Battleground states were biased for Clinton

Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

In 16 battleground states, Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. Clinton led the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%, a 0.4% margin. There was a 2.5% discrepancy between the polls and  corresponding recorded votes.

In 10 final National Polls, Clinton led 46.8-43.6%, a 3.2% margin. She won the National recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%, a 2.1% margin.

The 4.6% difference between the  2.5%  battleground margin discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Democrats. It is further evidence of election fraud.

When undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Trump leads the 16-poll average by 46.6-45.3%. The Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Ind-32Dem-28Rep) was the basis used to derive each state’s Party-ID. Trump leads by 48.9-43.1% with these adjustments.

Clinton won the 16 unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.

Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages:
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.9-43.1%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%

Weighted averages (56.8 million votes):
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.5-43.9%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%

Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Recorded vote:3.9%; UVA:3.1%; Pre-election polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
UVA: Undecided Voter Allocation: Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.

Trump likely won the national vote by 48-44% (5 million votes).

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/08/28/2016-true-vote-models-in-confirmation-party-id-and-returning-2012-voters/

Real Clear Politics (RCP)is the data source for the pre-election polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state/

View the data and calculations for the 16 state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1579502018

 Trump Pre-elect UVA Recorded Exit polls
True Vote
AZ 46.3 48.3 48.1 46.9 50.7
CO 40.4 44.3 43.3 41.5 48.9
FL 46.6 48.1 48.6 46.4 48.0
GA 49.2 50.0 50.5 48.2 52.6
IA 44.3 47.6 51.2 48.0 52.1
ME 39.5 44.5 44.9 40.2 48.6
MI 42.0 45.4 47.3 46.8 47.1
MN 39.0 40.8 44.9 45.8 46.5
MO 50.3 52.0 56.4 51.2 51.4
NV 45.8 47.2 45.5 42.8 47.1
NH 42.7 45.9 46.5 44.2 51.1
NC 46.5 49.2 49.9 46.5 46.3
OH 45.8 48.3 51.3 47.1 50.1
PA 44.3 47.2 48.2 46.1 45.6
VA 42.3 44.6 44.4 43.2 48.4
WI 40.3 42.9 47.2 44.3 47.4
AVERAGE 44.1 46.6 48.0 45.6 48.9

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Posted by on September 15, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis