MA 2014 Governor Election: Cumulative Vote share Anomalies

MA 2014 Governor Election: Cumulative Vote Share Anomalies

Richard Charnin
Sept.25, 2015

Look inside the books: 
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

A Cumulative Vote Share (CVA) analysis of the 2014 Massachusetts Governor election showed greater discrepancies than the close races in WI, FL, MD and IL. CVS analysis indicated that election fraud was likely in each election. All showed the same counter-intuitive upward trend in Republican cumulative vote shares. Democrats are strong in large, vote-rich urban areas and Republicans dominate in small, rural areas.

The beauty of CVS analysis is that it is easy to understand. Given the basic premise that Democrats usually do much better than Republicans in heavily populated counties, then we would not expect Republicans to gain share as precinct votes are sorted and summed from the smallest to the largest precincts. This is a red flag and indicates that the election was likely fraudulent.

Note that cumulative vote share at the 25% mark is the basis for calculating the change to the final vote. At 25% the Democrats typically lead by a solid margin, especially in heavily populated counties. But it’s all downhill from there.

In MA, a strong Democratic state, Baker(R) defeated Coakley(D) by 49.3-47.4%, a 40,000 vote margin out of two million cast. Recall that Coakley also lost a disputed election in 2010. Jonathan Simon wrote: “In the 70 jurisdictions where ballots were hand-counted, Coakley won. In fact, statewide, there was an 8% disparity between hand count to computer count.”

In 2014 Coakley lost by 0.94% in the 5 largest townships. She won the 5 smallest townships by 10.9%.

At the 25% CVS mark, Coakley led by 56.0-40.6%, a 326,000 vote margin. She led in 12 of the 14 townships. But 183,000 votes shifted to Baker, who ended up winning 7 townships. In Middlesex (518,000 votes) Coakley’s share dropped 40,000 votes (7.8%). In Hamden (129,000 votes) her share declined a whopping 17.5% (23,000 votes).

Only three townships (Barnstable, Berkshire and Franklin) did not show an increasing vote share trend for Baker. Coakley dropped 8.2% in the 5 largest townships, but just 2.3% in the five smallest – further confirmation that Democratic votes are stolen in the largest counties. Smaller counties are ignored because a) they have relatively few Democrats and/or b) secure vote counting/auditing systems.

This spreadsheet contains precinct level votes for the 14 MA townships sorted by precinct size, corresponding graphs and summary table:

Election analysts and activists have presented overwhelming statistical and anecdotal evidence of systematic election fraud:
a) massive unadjusted exit poll discrepancies (red-shift to the GOP),
b) impossible number of returning voters from the previous election,
c) unadjusted exit poll data changed and forced to match the recorded vote,
d) True Vote Model confirms unadjusted exit polls,
e) election officials refusal to prove vote counts are accurate,
f) proprietary voting machines steal votes using malicious, secret code,
g) refusal of the mainstream media (who fund the pollsters) to inform or investigate,
h) failure of the Democratic party to investigate proves its complicity.

Election Fraud is the THIRD RAIL of American politics.

Election officials won’t reveal the ballots or provide voting machine code. Exit pollsters make impossible adjustments to the actual data in order to conform to the bogus recorded vote. Unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later when it’s too late to do anything about it.

In 2012 the National Election Pool of six media giants did not conduct presidential exit polls 19 states. Their stated reason (to save money) was an extreme insult to the collective intelligence of serious analysts. The true reason is that the NEP does not want election analysts to have access to the full set of exit poll data – otherwise they would be able to calculate the unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate vote share and compare it to the unadjusted National Exit Poll. The data would show that the Democratic True Vote is 4-5% higher (“the red-shift”) than the recorded vote.

Given all this, the fact that in Kansas no one is allowed to view the voting machine records should not come as a surprise.

View the CVS county graphs:

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Posted by on September 25, 2015 in 2014 Elections


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Florida 2014 Governor: Cumulative Vote Share Analysis Update

Richard Charnin
Sept.20, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

Compendium of Links to all of my posts

Florida 2014 Governor CVS Analysis Update

Scott won the recorded vote by 48.6-47.6% (60,000 votes). But the recorded vote was not the same as the True Vote. It never is. Crist won the True Vote. And it wasn’t even close.

I previously downloaded precinct vote data for 12 of Florida’s 67 counties but did not include third-party candidate Wyllie. I realized that I needed all 67 counties and Wyllie’s votes for a thorough analysis. This is it.

This spreadsheet table summarizes the CVS analysis.

Scott gained cumulative vote share from the 25% mark to the final in 22 of the largest 23 counties. Crist gained share in 12 of the smallest 24 counties. This is typical – and counter-intuitive. Democratic cumulative share drops in the largest (Democratic) counties, but is basically constant in small (GOP) counties. This anomaly also occurred in the 2014 WI, IL, MD governor elections, indicating that they were likely stolen also.

There is a strong 0.55 correlation between the Crist county vote shares and county vote totals. The bulk of the fraud occurred in Duval, Orange, Pinellas, Hillsborough counties.

This Exit Poll/True Vote analysis confirms the CVS.

Note: Scott vote gains are from the 25% cumulative vote share mark to the final.
67 counties 5.89 million votes
Scott gained 218,000 votes from the 25% CVS mark.
25%: Crist 50.1%- Scott 45.0%
Final: Crist 47.6%- Scott 48.6%

Top 12 counties
Scott gained 150,000 votes
25%: Crist 56.4%- Scott 39.7%
Final: Crist 52.6%- Scott 43.8%

55 Other counties
Scott gained 67,000 votes
25%: Crist 42.1%- Scott 53.5%
Final: Crist 39.4%- Scott 55.5%

Democratic counties (18)
Scott gained 161,000 votes
25%: Crist 58.3%- Scott 37.2%
Final: Crist 54.9%- Scott 41.9%

Top 12 Counties: Total votes; Scott percentage increase from 25% mark; corresponding vote flip

County......... Votes; %Incr; Vote flip
Dade............517,091 1.2% 6,388
Broward.........466,055 2.3% 10,748
Palm Beach......416,729 1.2% 5,130
Hillsborough....368,266 5.3% 19,566
Pinellas........348,005 5.2% 18,109
Orange..........303,890 8.1% 24,615
Duval...........266,993 10.4% 27,746
Brevard.........218,778 2.3% 5,064
Lee.............208,222 5.1% 10,629
Polk............189,616 4.4% 8,289
Volusia.........173,757 3.2% 5,480
Sarasota........160,008 0.2% 293

View the barchart: Top 10 Counties

Florida Exit Poll
-The Party_ID mix (31% Dem-35% Rep) closely matched the recorded vote.
– Using the 38D-35R% voter registration mix, Crist is a 51-45% winner, confirming the CVS.

Democrat........38.0% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........27.0% 48.0% 44.0% 8.0%
Total..........100.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Votes...........5.890 3.006 2.648 .236

The CVS Summary Table compares competitive and non-competitive races.

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Posted by on September 20, 2015 in 2014 Elections


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Lone Nutters Review “Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy”

Richard Charnin
Sept.18, 2015

Look inside the book:Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
JFK Posts

These Lone Nutters “reviewed” my book on Amazon. They all gave it one star. No surprise there; I must be doing something right. The LNs achieved their goal of getting the average Amazon rating down. But their “reviews” gave me an opportunity to expose them in my replies.

Compare their comments below to the five star reviews.

Caution – Selection Bias At Work
Henry Sienzant
“We’re really in nut country now, Toto”on March 12, 2015
Anyone who thinks Richard Charnin has established anything needs to consider that his list has a selection bias at work. It’s akin to looking at an obituary page of the NY Times and asking “what are the odds that these people on this page would all die within a day or two of each other?” The odds, calculated beforehand, are miniscule. The odds, calculated after the fact, are 100%, because we already know all of them are dead.

Wait for the bargain bin if you really want to read this book
Steve Roe
on March 31, 2015
Refuse to read this book, knowing the author’s serious lack of research and knowledge of the JFK assassination. Here is his fan base that inflate his reviews. […]

One Star
Bernadette Hackett
on March 4, 2015
Too much in the statistical bend.

Junk Science (sans the Science)
Mark Ulrik
on November 27, 2014
I would advise against buying this book unless you have a perverse fascination with poorly applied logic and math. Let the following nugget from the author’s blog suffice.
=== Quote Begin ===
Researcher Harold Feldman wrote that of 121 eyewitnesses: 51 (42%) said shots came from the Grassy Knoll area, 32 from the TSBD, and 38 had no opinion.
Given P = 0.42 is probability of a witness being correct in stating that shots came from the Knoll, then the probability PM = 0.58 = 1-.42 that the witness was mistaken. The joint probability PA that ALL 51 witnesses were mistaken and there was NOT a Grassy Knoll shooter is 0.58 to the 51st power.
PA = 0.58^51 = 8.6E-13 = 0.000000000000861 or of 1 in 1,161,909,568,739 or 1 in 1.16 trillion.
=== Quote End ===

It’s certainly not a “given” that P is probability of a particular answer being “correct.” The 0.42 figure is nothing more than the probability of a random witness giving the author the answer he’s looking for. The 0.58^51 figure is the probability of repeating the experiment (asking random witnesses) 51 times and not getting the preferred answer even once. How is this supposed to “prove” anything meaningful? We already knew that – if you ask a lot of people – odds are you’ll eventually get the answer you’re looking for.

Don’t waste your money
Norman Logsdon
“movie lover”on December 3, 2014
This book is bogus from the on-set. Lee Oswald was not on the street watching the motorcade. The man misidentified as Oswald is Billy Lovejoy and various people have identified him. I don’t need to read anymore to know this book is worthless. Don’t waste your money.

Reclaiming $5.95 – Mathematical/Logical Theorem
John G. Jazwiec
on January 5, 2015
I can sum up the entire book in a paragraph. This is not to say the author is wrong. It’s only to say that it is redundant, defensive and didn’t have enough new material to warrant a book costing $5.95.

Garbage In, Garbage Out
Wisconsin Badger
on November 30, 2014
The author seems to to understand the concept of “garbage in, garbage out”. This is a Psuedo-scientific account. Not worth the time or money.

New Lipstick… Same Old Pig
Mike Davinroy
on November 4, 2014
Over many years I have read, and enjoyed well over a hundred books on the JFK assassination. I’ve found the vast majority of them to have something new or interesting. Perhaps this book would have been interesting in 1973, but much of what the author states in this “book” are long ago worn out theories that have been largely discounted by most serious researchers of the assassination. In my opinion this author abandons common sense and puts far too much faith in mathematics. It’s been said, “if your only tool is a hammer, you look at every problem as a nail.” This author needs more tools.

This author’s statistics “prove” absolutely nothing about the existence of some assassination conspiracy, and if he were as smart as he thinks he is, he would have surely submitted his material for scientific peer review long ago if he had any hope of gaining credibility. Instead, he blames the media and people equipped with common sense for not believing his preposterous conclusions. As much as I admire serious assassination researchers and personally believe it’s theoretically conceivable that there was some type of limited assassination conspiracy (although I know of no defensible evidence pointing to such) – this type of nonsense only hurts the cause of honest conspiracy research.

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Posted by on September 18, 2015 in Uncategorized


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Philip Stahl: Exposing JFK Media Propagandists and Warren Commission apologists

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Twitter Chronological Links
Look inside the book:Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

Philip Stahl: Exposing JFK Media Propagandists and Warren Commission apologists

Stahl is a prolific Astronomer, Physicist and JFK researcher who has written many Physics texts and The JFK Assassination: Final Analysis. The following posts on his blog illustrate the extent to which the media will go in covering up the truth about the JFK assassination.

JFK Forum Lone Nutters

John McAdams

Rachel Maddow (MSNBC): In this video Maddow lies about Lee Oswald and the Mannlicher Carcano.

The Beltway Crowd: Bob Woodward vs. Oliver Stone

Gerald Posner and Vince Bugliosi:

Vince Bugliosi

Bill O’Reilly

Bob Schieffer: CBS

Time Magazine

Stanley Kutner, Bill Maher, Tom Brokaw


Stephen King

Jill Abramson: NY Times

Philip Shenon: NY Times

Steve Kornacki: MSNBC

Michael Smerconish

Larry Sabato: Univ. of Virginia

Glenn Garvin: Miami Herald

Marilyn Elias: Southern Poverty Law Center

The “Skeptics Society”

I sent Stahl this link: Debunking Scott Aaronson’s “Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone”

Stahl responded with this set of devastating articles which closed the book on Aaronson:

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Posted by on September 13, 2015 in JFK


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JFK: Warren Commission apologists claim that…

Richard Charnin
September 11, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Twitter Chronological Links
Look inside the book:Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

Warren Commission apologists claim that…

1. Oswald shot Tippit.
But Tippit was shot no later than 1:06 pm. Oswald was seen outside his rooming house a mile away at 1:04 (some claim he was at the Texas Theater). The WC had to add 10 minutes to the time of death (1:16) to fabricate the myth that Oswald had enough time to get to the scene.

2.The Magic Bullet theory is correct.
But the bullet entered 5.5” below JFK’s collar and never exited. Gerald R. Ford, a member of the Warren Commission, suggested that the panel raise its initial description of the bullet wound in Kennedy’s back in a transparent, illegal scam to bolster the ridiculous SBT.

3. The three tramps were not Harrelson, Holt and Rogers.
But they were identified by Lois Gibson , who works for the Houston Police Department and is probably the most respected forensic artist and facial expert in the world. She has just been awarded with a notation in the Guinness Book of World Records for the highest crime solving rate based on composite sketches.

4.Cancer and heart attacks cannot be induced.
But Judyth Vary Baker and Mary S. Sherman, under the direction of cancer expert Alton Ochsner, developed a cancer-producing agent to kill Castro. . The 1975 Church Senate Intelligence Committee heard testimony of methods to induce heart attacks and cancer.

5.The witness unnatural death probability calculation does not take margin of error into account.
But this was not a poll of witnesses. It is a statistical analysis based on historical data.

6. The Weigman photo proves that Lovelady was standing at the Doorway.
But it does not show Lovelady at 12:30. The Altgens 6 photo was taken at the precise second that JFK was shot. It shows Lovelady standing on the steps.

7. Oswald was the Lone Gunman on the 6th floor.
But according to Det. Will Fritz, no one could place him there. And he was seen on the second floor at 12:25 by Carolyn Arnold – who was not called to testify at the WC.

8. No one testified that they saw Oswald in front on the steps of the Texas School Book Depository.
But the Warren Commission and the FBI had their patsy and would never allow such testimony. To claim they would is laughable disinformation.

9. Lovelady was Doorman. Oswald was not in front of the TSBD.
But Lovelady and Frazier both testified that Lovelady was standing on the steps in front of Frazier. Doorman was on the first floor. So Lovelady could not have been Doorman.

10. The HSCA determined that the London Times actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability that 18 material witnesses would die (13 unnaturally) within three years of the assassination was invalid. The HSCA claimed the witness universe was “unknowable”.
But the HSCA did not consider a) unnatural deaths, b) 552 Warren Commission witnesses, of whom at least 30 died suspiciously, c) 7 FBI officials were due to testify at HSCA and died suspiciously within a 6 month period, d) and at least 100 others.

11. The HSCA noted just 21 suspicious deaths.
But not one of them was Mafia (8), CIA (16), FBI (9), Dallas police (12) or anti-Castro Cuban (5). There were at least 122 suspicious deaths between 1964 and 1979.

12. There is no proof that the suspicious witnesses were JFK-related.
But approximately 67 of the 122 in the JFK Calc spreadsheet were called to testify at the WC (1964), Garrison/Shaw trial (1967-69), Church Senate Intelligence Committee (1975-76) and HSCA (1976-79).

13. There was no connection between the witnesses.
But at least 50 were from the Dallas area. It cannot just be a coincidence. If there was no connection, the deaths would have been distributed randomly throughout the United States.

14. Warren Commission apologist John McAdams said that John Simkin’s JFK Index includes a number of individuals who were inserted in the index because they died.
That is laughable but not unexpected considering the source. Seventy (70) of the 656 died suspiciously, 44 unnaturally (including 22 homicides). The probability: 1 in trillions.

15. Fingerprint expert Nathan Darby was proven wrong after claiming that fingerprints taken from the 6th floor of the TSBD were those of hitman Mac Wallace.
But “Wallace’s police ‘ten-print’ from his 1951 arrest, used in Mr. Darby’s comparison, was taken 12 years before the murder of JFK and even Mr Darby himself observed differences in the two prints that had arisen during the intervening time (e.g., he recorded what appeared to be an injury to the skin that was not present in the 1951 print but disrupted the 1963 print). He still felt confident enough to swear an affidavit stating that he had found 14 matching points, the threshold for admissibility in Texan courts. By all accounts, he later revisited the prints out of personal interest and found a 32-point match”.

16. Oswald’s palm prints were found on the Carcano
But Dallas police officials said during public interviews that Oswald’s prints had NOT been found on the weapon. When the FBI’s Latona examined the Carcano on November 23, he did not find Oswald’s prints on the weapon. Moreover, Latona said the rifle’s barrel did NOT look as though it had even been processed for prints. There is evidence that suggests the palm print was obtained from Oswald’s dead body at the morgue, or later at the funeral home So suspicious was the palm print that even the WC privately had doubts about the manner in which it was obtained (Garrison 113; Marrs 445; cf. Lane 153-158)

17. Oswald purchased the Mannlicher-Carcano rifle by mail-order under the alias “Alek Hidell”.
But this video proves that Oswald never ordered the rifle.

Why would he order a sub-par rifle from Klein’s Sporting Goods in Chicago using an alias when he could have purchased a superior rifle anonymously anywhere in Texas?
– Oswald was at work when he is said to have purchased the money order. So who bought the money order? If Oswald didn’t buy it, why does the handwriting seem to be his? There are forgers who can copy a person’s handwriting so well that it is difficult if not impossible to detect the fakery. The original order form and envelope were destroyed, so the FBI had to rely on microfilm copies of this evidence.

– Nobody at Oswald’s post office reported giving him a hefty package such as the kind in which a rifle would be shipped. None of the postal workers reported ever giving Oswald ANY kind of a package. Oddly, the FBI apparently made no effort to establish that Oswald picked up the rifle from the post office, or that he had ever received a package of any kind there.

– Postal regulations required that only those persons named on the post office box registration form could receive items of mail from the box, yet there is no evidence that Oswald listed the name of Hidell on the form (Smith 290-291). In a report dated 3 June 1964, the FBI stated, “Our investigation has revealed that Oswald did NOT indicate on his application that others, including an ‘A. Hidell,’ would receive mail through the box in question”.

– There is a discrepancy in size between the weapon ordered by “A. Hidell” and the rifle that Oswald allegedly left behind on the sixth floor of the TSBD. “A. Hidell” ordered item C20-T750 from an advertisement placed by Klein’s Sporting Goods in the February 1963 issue of AMERICAN RIFLEMAN. The rifle that was listed as item C20-T750 is 36 inches long. The Mannlicher-Carcano that Oswald supposedly abandoned on the sixth floor of the Book Depository Building is 40.2 inches long.

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Posted by on September 11, 2015 in Uncategorized


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A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Sept.5, 2015
Updated: Sept.17, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Compendium of Links to all of my posts
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference
Spreadsheet Links: JFK Calc, Unadjusted Exit Polls, True Vote Models, Cumulative Vote shares

1. The 2000 election
There were 105.458 million recorded votes.
Gore won by 548,000 recorded votes. But his True Vote margin was much higher.
Over 5 million votes were uncounted - at least 70% for Gore.
The election was stolen.

Recorded Votes Share
Bush 50.456 47.84%
Gore 51.004 48.36%
Other 3.998 3.79%

2. Gore won the Unadjusted National Exit Poll.
He won by an equivalent 2.3 million vote margin.
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll

Sample Gore Bush Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 684
Share 48.51% 46.27% 5.22%
Votes 51.16 48.80 5.82.

3. Gore won the Unadjusted State Exit Polls (50.7-45.6%), a 5.5 million vote margin.
Voted Turnout Mix....Gore..Bush..Other
Clinton 48,763 44%.....87%...10%...3%
Dole....35,464 32%......7%...91%...2%
Other....8,866 8%......23%...65%..12%
DNV.....17,732 16%.....52%...43%...5%
Share..110,825.......50.7% 45.6% 3.7%
Votes..110,825......56,166 50,536 4,123

2000 True Vote Model matched the unadjusted exit polls.

4. 2000 Voter mortality (1.25% annual rate)
Approximately 5 million Election 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
Only 100 million were alive in 2004.

Election 2000 voters ALIVE in 2004:
Bush 47.93
Gore 48.45
Other 3.80
Total 100.19

5. The 2004 Election
There were 122.294 million recorded votes.
Bush won by a bogus 3.0 million vote "mandate".

Bush 62.044 50.73%
Kerry 59.012 48.25%
Other. 1.238 1.01%

6. 2000 Election Voter Turnout in 2004
Estimate 98% of LIVING 2000 Election voters turned out in 2004.
Therefore, the MAXIMUM number of returning 2000 voters was:
Bush 46.97 million (38.41% of 122.3 million 2004 voters)
Gore 47.48 (38.83%)
Other 3.72 (3.04%)
Total 98.18 (80.28%)
DNV 24.11 (19.72% did not vote in 2000)
Total 122.29 100.0%

7. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 Respondents)
Kerry won by an equivalent 6 million votes.

Respondents Share...Equiv. vote
Kerry 7,064 51.71% 63.24 million
Bush. 6,414 46.95% 57.42
Other...182. 1.33% 1.63

8. Proof of fraud: IMPOSSIBLE ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit poll
The NEP required 7 million more returning Bush than Gore voters in order to MATCH the recorded vote. It indicated that 52.59 million Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004 (43% of the vote). But Bush only had 50.46 million votes in 2000. APPROXIMATELY 2 MILLION DIED AND 1 MILLION DID NOT RETURN IN 2004. Therefore there had to be at least 5 MILLION (52.6-47.5) PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

An IMPOSSIBLE adjustment had to be made to the National Exit poll in order to MATCH the recorded vote, therefore the RECORDED VOTE must also have been IMPOSSIBLE. THE 2000 and 2004 ELECTIONS WERE STOLEN.
2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry.Bush..Other....Alive..Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17%....54%...44%....2% ------ ------
Gore 45,249 37%....90%...10%....0%.....48,454...93%
Bush 52,586 43%.....9%...91%....0%.....47,933. 110%
Other 3,669 3%.....64%...14%...22%......3,798...97%
Total.122,294.....48.3%..50.7% 1.0%....100,185..94%
Votes............59,031..62,040 1,223

9. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry had 51.7% in the Unadjusted National Exit Poll. Given the 12:28am exit poll shares, matching to 51.7% required an implausible 1.4 million more returning Bush than Gore voters. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 5 million votes.

2000 Turnout Mix.....Kerry...Bush..Other
DNV. 23,116 18.4%....57%.....41%...2%
Gore 48,248 38.4%....91%......8%...1%
Bush 49,670 39.5%....10%.....90%...0%
Other. 4,703 3.7%....64%.....17%...19%
Total 125,737......51.7% 46.8% 1.5%
Cast. 125,737......65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 True Vote Model
10- Kerry won by 10.6 million votes assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the unadjusted state exit polls aggregate.

2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry..Bush...Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8%...57%....41%....2%
Gore 52,055 41.4%...91%.....8%....1%
Bush 47,403 37.7%...10%....90%....0%
Other 3,898 3.1%....64%....17%...19%
Total 125,737......53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Cast. 125,737......67,362 56,666 1,709
Recd. 122,294......59,028 62,041 1,224
Diff...3,443.......8,334 -5,375 485

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Posted by on September 5, 2015 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election


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2011 WI Supreme Court: Cumulative Vote Shares confirm the Stolen Election

2011 WI Supreme Court: Cumulative Vote Shares confirm the Stolen Election

Richard Charnin
Sept.4, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Compendium of Links to all of my posts

2004 Election Fraud: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
1988-2012 Presidential Elections: The Master Spreadsheet
1968-2012 Presidential True Vote Model
Cumulative Vote Shares: Indicators of Rigged Elections
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

This is an update to a previous 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court True Vote Analysis It referenced the analysis here.

Before discussing the CVS (below), a quick review: Kloppenburg (Independent) apparently won the election by 200 votes. But two days later, 14,000 votes were “found” in Waukesha County. Prosser (Republican) was declared the unofficial winner by 7,000 votes. The subsequent recount was a travesty. Scores of slit ballot bags and poll tapes dated a week before the election were uncovered. A stack of 50 consecutive Prosser ballots were found in Verona where Kloppenburg won 67% of the recorded vote – a zero probability.

The 2011 WI Supreme Court True Vote Model was enhanced to calculate the True Vote in all counties. It indicated that Kloppenburg won the election. Assuming a 50% turnout of both Obama and McCain voters, the recorded margin required implausibly low 81% Kloppenburg share of returning Obama voters while Prosser had 93% of returning McCain voters.

Assuming Kloppenburg actually had 88% of returning Obama voters and just 50% of 70,000 returning third-party and new voters, then she won by 99,000 votes with a 53.3% vote share. The Cumulative Vote Share analysis confirms the True Vote Model: Kloppenburg had 53.5% in the TVM and 52.2% at the CVS 25% mark.

As previously shown in the 2014 WI Governor and in the 2012 Recall election, CVS anomalies occurred in the largest counties where the average ward vote is higher than in smaller, rural (heavily GOP) counties. Overall, there was a 2.47% decline (37,000 votes) in Kloppenburg’s vote share from the 25% mark. But there was a 5.0% decline (42,000 votes) in the Top 10 counties in which 56% of the votes were cast. Kloppenburg gained nearly 9,000 votes in the 52 smallest counties, a confirmation that they were effectively ignored by the GOP.

In Milwaukee County, Kloppenburg’s vote share dropped 25,000 votes from 67.5% at the 25% mark to 56.4% at the final – a nearly 50,000 decrease in margin. In the TVM, Kloppenburg had 63.3% in Milwaukee.

In Waukesha County, Kloppenburg’s vote share dropped 3,400 votes from 28.9% at the 25% mark to 25.2% at the final – a nearly 6,800 decrease in margin and close to the magical Waukesha vote adjustment which gave the election to Prosser.

Note that the declines (discrepancies) may actually be greater than above as they reflect changes from the 25% CVS mark – not from the start to the 25% count.

The results confirm previous counter-intuitive findings that Republicans consistently gain share in the most populated counties where precincts/wards are usually heavily Democratic. There were virtually no vote share changes in small, heavily Republican rural counties. In fact, Democrats and Independents often gain vote share from the 25% mark in these counties. Kloppenburg lost 46,000 votes from the 25% mark in the largest 20 counties. She lost share in 15 of the largest 18 counties, but gained share in 37 of the smallest 54. She actually gained 7,000 votes in the smaller 52 counties. She lost 40,000 votes in Democratic counties in which she led at the 25% mark, but gained 1,000 votes in (Republican) counties in which she had less than 50%.

As in recent WI Governor elections, vote share declines were highest in Milwaukee (11%, 25000 vote loss), Racine (15%, 7600), Waukesha (2.7%, 3300), Kenosha (10.3%, 3100) and Winnebago (5.6%, 2100).

This graph shows Kloppenburg’s cumulative vote loss trend from the largest 20 counties Note the downward trend reversal at the one million vote mark. Kloppenburg actually gained share in the smallest 52 counties.

Once again, the evidence shows that Republicans steal elections in big urban counties that are strongly Democratic and ignore small rural counties where they are dominant.

Kloppenburg CVS by County Group Size
Counties Votes Final...25%...Change Votes
All 1,498,880 49.70% 52.17% -2.47% -36,995

.1-10 840,510 51.13% 56.15% -5.02% -42,224
11-20 262,200 45.28% 46.60% -1.32%. -3,459
21-30 148,615 50.10% 47.15%. 2.95%.. 4,381
31-40. 94,724 48.54% 46.69%. 1.85%.. 1,749
41-50. 68,722 49.78% 48.85%. 0.93%.....638
51-72. 80,835 51.86% 49.48%. 2.38%...1,926

To appreciate the vote changes, think of the starting 10,000 votes as a poll with a 1% margin of error. Move the cursor over the CVS trend line to view the exact vote count and share.
Milwaukee County Steady 17% decline from 74% at 25,000 to 57% at the final 228,000.
Brown After leading at 10,000 votes, Kloppenburg’s share declines to 45% at the final 61,000.
Kenosha Steady, massive decline from 65% at 3,000 votes to 53% at the final 31,000.
Racine Strange decline from 60% at 10,000 votes to 45% at the final 51,000.
St. Croix Coincident shares all the way to the final 16,000. Was St. Croix legit?
Waukesha The biggest GOP stronghold, but is it this strong? Kloppenburg gained shares in smaller GOP counties, but not in Waukesha where her share declined from 32% at 10,000 votes to 26% at the final 125,000.
Winnebago Decline from 55% at 5,000 votes to 48% at the final 40,000.


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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis


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