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How could Trump approval drop from 52% to 46% in one day on Rasmussen?

Richard Charnin

Sept.29, 2020

How could Trump approval drop from 52% to 46% in one day on Rasmussen? The approval is based on a three-day average of 500 polled each day or 1500 total.

My calculations show that Trump had approximately 50% of the 500 polled on Sept. 25, but just 32% of the 500 polled on Sept. 28. The 6% decline in one day is unprecedented. Daily change in approval is generally 0-2%.

Possible explanations for the sharp decline: Consider these current events: 1) Supreme Court nominee Barrett named, 2) NY Times misleading report on Trump’s Tax Returns (did not mention legitimate tax write-offs and no Russian connection- a nothing-burger).

Note: Trump was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for the third time but the media never reported it.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

The margin of error for N=1500 is 2.5%. It is 4.4% for N=500

1-day 50015003day-1500Rating
RateApprDisApprDisApprDis
28-Sep32%16034069079546%53%
25-Sep50%25025078072052%48%
24-Sep55%27522578072052%48%
23-Sep50%25524575074050%49%
22-Sep50%25025075074050%49%

 
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Posted by on September 29, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

WTF! Trump approval: Rasmussen 53%, Politico 38%

Richard Charnin

Sept. 24, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Another BIG example of mainstream media polling bias. This is how they do it.

Note how Politico 1) understates Republican approval of Trump, 2) overstates Democratic Party-ID weight, 3) understates Independent approval of Trump.

Rasmussen (Gallup Party ID)
Party ID Approve Disapprove
Rep 26%…. 95% 5%
Dem 31%…. 12% 88%
Ind 43%…. 57.2% 40.5%
Poll 100%….53% 46% < +7% net approval

Politico (Morning Consulting pollster)
Party-ID Approve Disapprove
Rep 31%…. 83% 15% < 83% too low by 10%
Dem 42%…. 7% 91% < 42% Dems over weighted by 10%
Ind 28%…. 36% 62% < 36% too low by at least 15%
Poll 100%…. 38% 60% < -22% net approval

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html?

Politico Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics pg. 288
https://assets.morningconsult.com/…/200956_crosstabs_POLITI…

 
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Posted by on September 19, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

The following battleground states are ranked based on 2016 win probability and electoral vote

Richard Charnin

Sept. 10, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

The following battleground states are the ones Trump needs to focus on. It is safe to assume that he will win all 126 electoral votes from the deep red states that he won easily in 2016 (he had 306 total electoral votes). Therefore, he needs 154 additional EV from the list below to reach 270.

The state win probabilities are based on his 2016 recorded 2-party vote shares (he surely did better in the True Vote than the recorded vote shares).

FL, PA and MI are the most critical states based on rank.

stateEvote2016 winprob2020 winprobRankPct
IA699.95%95.0%121.0%
TX3899.90%95.0%766.2%
OH1899.74%95.0%362.9%
GA1695.9%95.0%352.8%
NC1589.4%90.0%383.1%
AZ1189.1%80.0%282.3%
FL2965.7%67.0%18515.1%
WI1060.5%62.0%957.7%
PA2059.7%55.0%20616.8%
MI1653.1%53.0%51742.1%
NH444.9%55.0%00.0%
MN1029.3%55.0%00.0%
NV619.9%25.0%00.0%
ME414.8%55.0%00.0%
CO94.0%10.0%00.0%
VA133.2%5.0%00.0%
NM50.1%5.0%00.0%

https://docs.google.com/…/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K…/edit…

Trump Clinton EV WinProb
55.1% 44.9%…. 6. 99.95% IA
54.7% 45.3%… 38. 99.9% TX
54.3% 45.7%… 18. 99.7% OH
52.7% 47.3%… 16. 95.9% GA
51.9% 48.1%… 15. 89.5% NC
51.9% 48.1%… 11. 89.1% AZ
50.6% 49.4%… 29. 65.7% FL
50.4% 49.6%… 10. 60.5% WI < 270 EV to win
50.4% 49.6%… 20. 59.7% PA
50.1% 49.9%… 16. 53.1% MI < 306 EV actual

Trump lost these states but could win them in 2020.
49.8% 50.2%….. 4. 44.9% NH
49.2% 50.8%… 10. 29.3% MN
48.7% 51.3%…. 6. 19.9% NV < 326 EV
48.4% 51.6%…. 4. 14.8% ME
47.3% 52.7%…. 9…4.0% CO < 339 EV
47.2% 52.8%… 13. 3.3% VA
45.3% 54.7%… 5. 0.12% NM <357 EV

 
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Posted by on September 10, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Zogby: Trump 36% approval among non-whites

Richard Charnin

Aug. 29, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

The latest Zogby poll (taken on Aug. 17-19 before the convention) has Trump at 52% total approval with 36% approval among Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. Since the Republicans got a convention bounce, Trump’s total approval is probably higher than the poll indicates.

Assumption 1: Trump gets 61% of the two-party white vote as he did in 2016 and 36% of non-whites. Then he wins by 11.8 million votes with 54.3% of the two party vote.

Assumption 2: Trump gets 61% of whites and 24% of non-whites. Then he wins by 4.7 million votes with 51.7% of the two-party vote.

With these margins, he wins an Electoral Vote landslide.

2-party2020 forecast
Race2016 CensusBidenTrump
White73.31%39%61%
Black12.44%64%36%
Latino9.22%64%36%
Asian3.67%64%36%
Other1.36%64%36%
Total100.0%45.67%54.33%
136,21662,21374,003
Margin11,789

25 Forecast scenarios
Trump
% black
% other24%27%30%33%36%
36%52.8%53.2%53.6%54.0%54.3%
33%52.6%52.9%53.3%53.7%54.1%
30%52.3%52.7%53.0%53.4%53.8%
27%52.0%52.4%52.8%53.1%53.5%
24%51.7%52.1%52.5%52.8%53.2%
Margin
36%7,7238,7399,75610,77311,789
33%6,9697,9869,00310,01911,036
30%6,2167,2328,2499,26610,282
27%5,4626,4797,4958,5129,529
24%4,7085,7256,7427,7598,775

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/952-the-zogby-poll-new-trump-job-approval-numbers

 
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Posted by on August 29, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Who do you believe? The MSM (41% Trump approval) or Rasmussen (51%).

Richard Charnin

Aug. 24, 2020

Who do you believe? The MSM (41% Trump approval) or Rasmussen (51%). Trump has gained 6% in the last week.

It appears that Independents are breaking for Trump. Independent Trump 54.9% approval is calculated based on a) the Rasmussen 51% poll, b) current Gallup voter affiliation (Party-ID) and c) estimated Rep and Dem Trump approval.

Party-ID……Approve Disapprove
Rep 25%…….. 90% 10%
Dem 31%……..14% 86%
Ind 44%…….54.9% 40.5%
Poll 100%…..51.0% 47.0%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit?

 
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Posted by on August 24, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

A COVID-19 probability quiz

Richard Charnin

Aug. 29. 2020

A COVID-19 probability quiz (updated 8/29)

Given: 55 daily cases and mortality rates since July 4.

Assume: the probability =1% that two consecutive days have the same mortality rate.

Calculate: the probability P that at least 6 consecutive date pairs have identical mortality rates.

P =1-BINOMDIST(5,55,0.01,true) = 1 in 52,497
Just a coincidence?

dates…….. rate (%)
July 4-5 … 0.56
July 21-22 1.67
Aug 6-7 … 2.04
Aug 13-14 1.85
Aug 16-17 1.42
Aug 28-29 2.23

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jbfznj3c27kKvF7Vpo9pWIeB69VsCAeVmwYjAEkIZL8/

 
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Posted by on August 24, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Dr. Epstein’s Election Monitoring System MUST Be Deployed Immediately to Prevent Big Tech from Rigging the 2020 Election

Richard Charnin

August 3, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Dr. Robert Epstein exposes Google’s role in America’s elections. His analysis indicates that from 2.6 to 10.4 million votes were shifted to Clinton in the 2016 election by using search engine manipulation and other techniques. Given that Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million(65.8-63.0), a switch of 6 million votes has Trump winning in a 9.2 million vote landslide: 69-59.8 million.

From the Gateway Pundit:

Dr. Epstein’s Election Monitoring System MUST Be Deployed Immediately to Prevent Big Tech from Rigging the 2020 Election

“Research Psychologist and whistleblower Dr. Robert Epstein made headlines in March 2018 on Tucker Carlson Tonight when he revealed how big tech companies like Google and Facebook can flip elections to Democrats without leaving a paper trail.

Dr. Epstein told Tucker Carlson, “Our studies show that Google can take a 50-50 split among undecided voters and change it into a 90-10 split with no one knowing they had been manipulated and without leaving a paper trail… It has to do with those search suggestions. Literally from the very first character that you type into the search bar you are being manipulated. “

“Dr. Robert Epstein’s election monitoring system can track a dozen different ways in which Big Tech is rigging the 2020 election – how Google and other companies are invisibly manipulating millions of American citizens to vote for one political party – and we know which one that is. He can expose the manipulations weeks before the election and has strategies to stop it. So why is no one funding this? The project will deploy anonymous Field Agents in various states. Their internet use will be monitored by special hardware and software. It’s an infrastructure similar to the Nielsen TV ratings system. Epstein set up similar systems in 2016 and 2018 which found extreme political bias in one direction only.

With the recent addition of Artificial Intelligence, he can now capture and analyze online manipulations in real time, reporting his findings frequently to journalists, the FEC, the DOJ, Congress, and state AG’s. Exposing and stopping this bias and censorship in August, September, and October will give us a free-and-fair election in November. It will be another “Promise Kept” by Trump. Without a monitoring system we will be turning our precious democracy over to tech companies”.

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/07/20/10-ways-that-big-tech-companies-could-shift-millions-of-votes-in-the-2018-midterms-and-the-power-of-search-engines-to-influence-votes-and-opinions/

 
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Posted by on August 3, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Why does the media avoid mentioning the sharp death rate decline but only focus on the dramatic increase in cases since June 16?

Richard Charnin
Aug.1, 2020
Updated Sept. 21: view the sharp decline in daily cases and  deaths since Aug.16
Posted Aug. 1: Consider CA, TX, FL, AZ COV-19 cases and deaths before and after June 16. Does this seem strange to you? Why does the media avoid mentioning the sharp death rate decline but only focus on the dramatic increase in cases since June 16?
There have been 56 million total U.S. tests (1/6 of the population). The MSM claims that Trump should increase testing!
How many lives would have been saved if the media and Fauci did not spread disinfo on HCQ? The MSM won’t discuss the scores of studies which prove that it works. In fact, it censors related videos and articles. https://youtu.be/mV3urNCQOKM?t=1
Think, people, think. The Dems need CA, TX, FL and AZ to win the election. By any means necessary. The MSM won’t report on the proven cases of miscounts in Vote by Mail. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/yes-america-there-voter-fraud-these-recent-cases-prove-it
CA, TX, FL, AZ changes from June 16 to July 31:
Total cases increased from 380 thousand to 1.2 million.
Total deaths increased from 11.5 to 14.6 thousand.
The death rate declined from 3.0% to 1.2%.
TOTAL………………………Pre 6/16 Post 6/16
Cases 1,587,220……….. 379,680 1,207,540
Deaths 26,069………………11,457 14,612
Rate……1.64%……………… 3.02% 1.21%
 
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Posted by on August 1, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

The Propaganda Machine

Richard Charnin
July 26, 2020
This is our Mainstream Media:
Cherry picked
Impeachment 222 times
There is no there there
Weapons of War
Assorted
 
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Posted by on July 26, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

A great analysis of COV-19 by Meryl Nass, M.D.

Richard Charnin
July 25, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

A great analysis of COV-19
Meryl Nass, M.D.

“The number of weekly deaths from Covid and other causes of pneumonia has dropped from 27% of all deaths to 5.5%, less than the number of weekly deaths seen during an AVERAGE FLU SEASON. There appear to be no more deaths in the US at this time of year than occurred in 2018 and 2019!

Furthermore, we have learned that the vast majority of deaths in the United States are in the elderly. In the US, according to the CDC, 80% of COVID deaths have occurred in those over 65, and 92% of all deaths in those over 55.

Yet only a total of seven US children aged 1-5 have died from COVID since the start of the pandemic.

I now believe the current threat of COVID-19 is being exaggerated by the media and public figures, to our detriment. Here’s why.

Back in March-April, the virus ran like wildfire through many congregate living facilities. Guidance on what to do, and the means for protecting staff and residents (training, masks and other PPE) were NOT provided to nursing homes. Emergency regulations issued by a number of states, including New York, which required nursing homes to take infectious COVID patients back from hospitals, virtually guaranteed new outbreaks.

Now that testing is widely available, of course we are finding many new cases, who are on average 15 years younger than before, and in general become much less ill.

I believe that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was created in a lab, using multiple techniques and genetic fragments that were already known and had been designed in multiple labs. …..

Assuming SARS-CoV-2 was a lab creation, and first encountered lots of humans last fall, then it is likely that during its subsequent adaptations to the human species, it would develop less virulence.

We know that crude death rates (Covid deaths divided by known Covid case numbers) have been dropping dramatically worldwide since the onset of the pandemic.

Partly this is due to improved care of patients, partly to identifying less severe infections due to increased availability of testing, possibly also due to false positives on testing.

But my analysis of the number of patients currently hospitalized and current deaths, despite increased total cases, tells me the infection is just not making people as sick. Deaths rates are now less than 1/4 what they were at the peak of illness in the US….”

https://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com/2020/07/my-current-covid-advice-and-some-good.html

My daily spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jbfznj3c27kKvF7Vpo9pWIeB69VsCAeVmwYjAEkIZL8/edit#gid=258532309

 
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Posted by on July 25, 2020 in Uncategorized