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Exposing Media Cov-19 scare tactics

Richard Charnin
June 27, 2020
Exposing Media Cov-19 scare tactics
 
Cases are increasing in CA,TX,FL,AZ, but the national mortality rate is going down. How come? From Mark Crispin Miller “Our hospitals are NOT overrun with COVID patients. Our hospitals are busy, yes. They are busy because elective surgeries have been reopened and, in addition, people are seeking treatments for things they have delayed due to self-quarantining for months-on-end”.
 
The cumulative daily mortality rate from April 28 to June 27 (deaths/cases) has dropped steadily from 9.8% to 4.4%. At this rate, there will be near ZERO deaths on Labor Day.
 
What will the Democrats do when there is no need for masks and businesses open, unemployment drops and the stock market rallies? Will they still push vote by mail on Nov.3?
 
US pop… 328,000,000………….. 1 in
Total deaths 128,108 (0.04%)…. 2560
Total cases 2,590,277 (0.79%)….. 127
Total tests 32,000,000 (9.76%)….. 10.3
 
On June 27:
Florida 9,585 cases, 26 Deaths: 0.27%
New York: 819 cases; 31 deaths: 3.79%
 
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Posted by on June 28, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

More propaganda from the desperate NY Times. Biden leading Trump by 50-36%?

Richard Charnin
June 24, 2020

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It never ends. More propaganda from the desperate NY Times. Biden leading Trump by 50-36%? Who still believes the Times or the liberal Sienna college pollsters about anything? Let’s take a look at the numerical scam.

In the poll, 466 Dems were sampled vs. 341 Repubs.
Biden is leading Trump by 21% among Independents. This requires Biden winning Independents by 39.1-18.7%. The 57.8% total is far below 100%. IT IS PROOF THAT THE POLL NUMBERS ARE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

What if the number of Repubs polled equaled the Dems?

Trump won Independents by 46-42% in 2016. It was a bogus recorded vote; he did better in the True Vote. The Dems stole millions of votes in 2016, just like they are planning in 2020 with vote by mail!

NY Times……………Biden Trump
Rep 341 28%………15% 85%
Dem 466 39%……..85% 15%
Ind 401 33%……..39.1% 18.7% < total not 100% ???
Total 1208 100%… 50% 36%

Adjusted……….Biden Trump
Rep 28%…………15% 85% (should get 90%+ in 2020)
Dem 28%……… 85% 15% (gaining black and hispanic dems)
Ind 44%……….47.6% 51.8% (won Ind by 46-42% in 2016)
Total 100%……. 49% 51%

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/us/politics/trump-biden-poll-nyt-upshot-siena-college.html

 
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Posted by on June 24, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

The 6/22 Rasmussen approval poll is good news for Trump

Rasmussen Poll: President Trump Approval Rating at 46%, Higher Than Obama at Same Point

Richard Charnin
June 22,2020

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Despite the media’s criticism over President Trump’s handling of COVID-19, riots, and speculation about low turnout at the Tulsa, Oklahoma rally, his 46% approval rating is higher than Obama’s 44% at the same point in his term.

Trump has just 77% Repub approval, but a whopping 39% Black and 48% Other Non-white approval. In the 2016 election recorded vote he had 89% of Repubs and just 8% of blacks (He actually did better in the True Vote).

Comparing his approval numbers to the 2016 election, he will win easily if he matches his 57% white vote in 2016 and gets 45% of non-whites.

Trump approval (2016 recorded)
Indep 40% (46%)
Dem 24% (9%)
Repub 77% (89%)
Total 46% (46%)

White 47% (57%)
Black 39% (8%)
Other 48% (26%)
Total 46% (46%)

Party-ID Trump Biden
Rep 28% 93% 7%
Dem 31% 12% 88%
Ind 41% 46% 42%
Total 48.6% 46.5%

 
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Posted by on June 23, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

John Zogby poll: Trump job approval is 48%. Tied at 46% with Biden. My analysis.

Richard Charnin

June 18, 2020

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Since 2000, John Zogby has been my favorite independent pollster.

In the latest John Zogby poll Trump job approval is 48%. He is tied at 46% with Biden. Biden is performing very well with swing voters; Trump’s approval is 51% with Hispanics. Rasmussen Trump approval is 40% with Blacks. But it is early. I expect Trump to open a solid lead over the next few months.

“Election polls have so far been all over the map with some giving Biden a big advantage. While many pollsters overweight Democrats, Zogby keeps them even with Republicans at 36% and independents at 28%”.

Estimated vote shares required to match Zogby poll
Zogby……Trump Biden
Rep. 36%…94.0% 6.0%
Dem.36%…15.0% 85.0%
Ind.. 28%…24.1% 47.3% Swing voters
Poll……..46.0% 46.0%

If Trump gets 60% of the 2-party RECORDED white vote as he did in 2016 (he did better in the TRUE VOTE), and 45% of Other (non-whites), he would have nearly 56% of the 2-party vote.

Assuming Trump has 61% of the white vote, 15% of blacks and 40% of others, he wins by 51.9-48.1%.

Estimated True Vote
NEP……Pct Trump Biden
White…..71% 60% 40% 2016 recorded
Black…..12% 40% 60% Rasmussen
Hispanic..11% 51% 49% Zogby
Asian……4% 45% 55%
Other……2% 45% 55%
Calc….100% 55.7% 44.3%

………… Trump %White
………..57%…60%…62%
%Other ……..Vote share
45% …. 53.5% 55.7% 57.1%
40% …. 52.1% 54.2% 55.6%
35% …. 50.6% 52.8% 54.2%
30% …. 49.2% 51.3% 52.7%
25% …. 47.7% 49.9% 51.3%

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/dead-heat-trump-biden-tied-at-46-long-night-expected-on-election-day

 
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Posted by on June 18, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

The Lancet Study Used by the WHO to Stop HCQ Trials Has Been Retracted

Richard Charnin

June 6, 2020

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In an important moment for science and data transparency, @thelancet announces that its 96,000 observational study on hydroxychloroquine has been RETRACTED.

Jeremy Faust MD MS
@jeremyfaust
·
Statement from The Lancet
Today, three of the authors of the paper, “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis”, have retracted their study. They were unable to complete an independent audit of the data underpinning their analysis. As a result, they have concluded that they “can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” The Lancet takes issues of scientific integrity extremely seriously, and there are many outstanding questions about Surgisphere and the data that were allegedly included in this study. Following guidelines from the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE), institutional reviews of Surgisphere’s research collaborations are urgently needed.

The retraction notice is published today, June 4, 2020. The article will be updated to reflect this retraction shortly.

Today, three of the authors of the paper, “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis”, have retracted their study. They were unable to complete an independent audit of the data underpinning their analysis. As a result,….
 
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Posted by on June 6, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

42% of all COVID-19 deaths are taking place in facilities that house 0.62% of the U.S. population

Richard Charnin
May 29,2020
Forbes: 42% of all COVID-19 deaths are taking place in facilities that house 0.62% of the U.S. population.
And 42% could be an undercount. States like New York exclude from their nursing home death tallies those who die in a hospital, even if they were originally infected in an assisted living facility. Outside of New York, more than half of all deaths from COVID-19 are of residents in long-term care facilities.
70% of COVID-19 deaths in Ohio, 69% in Pennsylvania.

New York, New Jersey, Michigan forced nursing homes to accept infected patients

Instead, states like New York, New Jersey, and Michigan actually ordered nursing homes to accept patients with active COVID-19 infections who were being discharged from hospitals.

The most charitable interpretation of these orders is that they were designed to ensure that states would not overcrowd their ICUs. But well after hospitalizations peaked, governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo were doubling down on their mandates.

As recently as April 23, Cuomo declared that nursing homes “don’t have a right to object” to accepting elderly patients with active COVID infections. “That is the rule and that is the regulation and they have to comply with that.” Only on May 10—after the deaths of nearly 3,000 New York residents of nursing homes and assisted living facilities—did Cuomo stand down and partially rescind his order.

 

Nearly one-tenth of New Jersey nursing home & assisted living residents have died from COVID-19.
 
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Posted by on May 29, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Don’t believe the media HYPE. Cov-19 daily cases and deaths are going DOWN, not UP.

Richard Charnin
May 27, 2020
Update: June 16, 2020

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Don’t believe the media HYPE. Cov-19 daily cases and deaths are going DOWN, not UP. The numbers have fallen dramatically since May 1.

The total number of tests have risen from 6 million on May 1 to nearly 15 million on May 26, yet the number of new daily cases have declined. The MSM won’t tell you that as they keep screaming for more tests.

On May 6, the 7-day moving average of deaths was 1878.On May 26, the 7-day moving average of deaths was 1007.The numbers are inflated due to the inclusion of other diseases (comorbidity).

Update 6/16: The DNC/MSM wants to close down business by predicting a “second wave” and a spike in C0V-19, focusing on increasing cases in AZ, CA, FL. Like everything else they have tried, it won’t work. The trend is just the opposite of what they are telling you. Typical MSM disinfo.

Note: The 7-day moving average of deaths declined from 1068 on June 2 to 627 on June 21. At this rate, Cov-19 deaths will be near zero in August.

Check the daily trend. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jbfznj3c27kKvF7Vpo9pWIeB69VsCAeVmwYjAEkIZL8/edit#gid=258532309

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8350935/US-coronavirus-pandemic-early-November-predictive-model-shows.html
Predictive modeling by Singapore University of Technology and Design estimates the US coronavirus crisis could end by November 11″.

End by November 11 AFTER the election? Oh, this is from the UK Daily Mail. Trump haters. The simple 7-day moving average of deaths above indicates that it will end much sooner (perhaps by July).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQus0DcXsEC_BJgE0qFRPsfZavb_hN0aRvnxTf6IfsnviT6BzBzyCJqkGTBIpSatfPt03cPc0SH673U/pubchart?oid=915949972&format=interactive

 

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Posted by on May 27, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

QUINNIPIAC POLL: BIDEN LEADING TRUMP BY 50-39%. WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND BELIEVES IT?

Richard Charnin
May 22, 2020

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In the 5/20 Quinnipiac poll, 1,323 self-identified registered voters were surveyed nationwide from May 14 – 18 with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

BUT THE POLL DOES NOT PROVIDE A PARTY ID. WHY NOT?

These steps calculate a plausible adjusted poll:
1. Note that the 2016 National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the fraudulent 2016 recorded vote by over-weighting the Dems Party-ID and vote shares. This is Standard Operating Procedure used by the MSM to rig polls.

2. Calculate the Quinnipiac party ID mix required to match the bogus 50-39% margin. As usual, Party-ID and vote shares were over-weighted to favor the Dems.

3. Calculate the adjusted Biden/Trump poll. Apply the latest Gallup national voter affiliation percentages and make plausible adjustments to the Quinnipiac poll shares.

With these adjustments, Trump leads by 50-47%.

2016 NEP (forced to match the bogus recorded vote)
Party-ID….Clinton Trump Other
Rep 33%…………. 8%  88%  4%
Dem 36%…… 90.4% 7.8% 1.8%
Ind 31%…………42% 46% 12%
Total…….. 48.2% 46.1% 5.7%

Quinnipiac
……….Biden Trump Other
Rep 26%…….. 8% 87% 5%
Dem 32%….. 88% 5% 7%
Ind 42% …. 47% 36% 17%
Total……… 50.0% 39.3% 10.7%

Adjusted
Gallup…..Biden Trump Other
Rep 30%……. 6% 93% 1%
Dem 31%….. 88% 7% 5%
Ind 39%…… 47% 50% 3%
Total……… 47.4% 49.6% 3.0%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3661

 
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Posted by on May 22, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

1969 Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 in U.S during Woodstock

Richard Charnin
May 16,2020

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Woodstock Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic

1969 Hong Kong Flu killed 100,000 in U.S during Woodstock

Jeffery A. Tucker wrote in the American Instute of Economic Research:

“In my lifetime, there was another deadly flu epidemic in the United States. The flu spread from Hong Kong to the United States, arriving in December 1968 and peaking a year later. It ultimately killed 100,000 people in the U.S., mostly over the age of 65, and one million worldwide.

Lifespan in the US in those days was 70 whereas it is 78 today. Population was 200 million as compared with 328 million today. It was also a healthier population with low obesity. If it would be possible to extrapolate the death data based on population and demographics, we might be looking at a quarter million deaths today from this virus. So in terms of lethality, it was as deadly and scary as COVID-19 if not more so, though we shall have to wait to see.

Schools mostly stayed open. Businesses did too. You could go to the movies. You could go to bars and restaurants”.

…….

 
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Posted by on May 16, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Probabilities of clinical success using hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin +/- zinc against the novel betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2

Richard Charnin
5/5/2020

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Probabilities of clinical success using hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin +/- zinc against the novel betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2

Based on the current clinical information available, the success rates for a favorable outcome/clinical improvement are approximately 91.6% using hydroxychloroquine(HCQ) without or without azithromycin (AZ) and/or zinc and the death rate in this treated group is approximately 2.7%.

This table is provisional and is being updated as new data surface.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w6p_HqRXCrW0_wYNK7m_zpQLbBVYcvVU/view?fbclid=IwAR2YTimAuYPeSPP-igLU7YvHGpgFvySQ6PM7e8IxzhncK68HSrfRDpYNHwg

Please note that the Veteran’s Administration study conducted by Magagnoli J, Narendran S, Pereira F, et al. in South Carolina assessed a very sick population and the hydroxychloroquine was given late the course of the illness. Many patients were ventilated. We believe the 52 deaths reported in this population are not indicative or predictive of the average death rate observed in populations diagnosed in the early to mid stage of the CoVID-19 disease and treated with hydroxychloroquine. Based on the experienced clinicians observational data summarized above, the death count was only 11 out of over 2,000 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine.

Dr. Stephen Smith’s patients who were treated with HCQ and azithromycin did not require mechanical ventilation. He reports that severely ill CoVID-19 patients under 70 yrs of age were diabetic or prediabetic with high BMI.
He is convinced hydroxychloroquine works for his patients. His level of certainty is very high. – personally reported on 4.2.20 and again on subsequent dates in April 2020.

Clinicians are natural Bayesians and such philosophical and qualitative statistical analysis is consistent with our medical training, bedside clinical skills including history taking, examination, differential diagnosis, probable primary diagnosis, laboratory evaluations including serologies, EKG, chest X-ray, CT scan of lungs, objective gold standard test interpretation and clinical decision making. In other words, waiting for fixed randomized controlled trials during a pandemic when time is of the essence, a Bayesian approach to the assessment of diagnostic and therapeutic probabilities is wise and efficient and will save time, money and lives if the physicians are given a chance to retain their autonomy and practice medicine to the best of their abilities.

 
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Posted by on May 5, 2020 in Uncategorized