Did the GOP actually win the House?
2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud
Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018
2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud
What does the change in 38 tossups to the final result tell us? We would normally expect an even split of 19 races going to the Dems and 19 to the Repubs. It’s like flipping a coin. But the Dems have won the vast majority (30 of 35) tossup elections. What are the odds? 1 in 105,842!
Election results are based on the recorded vote. But the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There is fraud in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.
Given: 203D194R (38 tossups) on Election Day and current 233D199R.
Assumption: Equal Dem/Rep tossup poll shares
1) P= 1 in 105,842 is the probability of the change from
203D194R to 233D199R
P = binomdist (30, 35, 0.5, false) = 0.0009% or 1 in 105,842
2) P = 1 in 99,569 is the probability of the change from
203D194R to 235D200R (assume Dems win 2 of the remaining 3 tossups)
P = binomdist (32, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.001% or 1 in 99,569
3) P = 1 in 547,629 is the probability of the change from
203D194R to 236D199R (assume Dems win the 3 remaining tossups)
P = binomdist (33, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.0002% or 1 in 547,629
Probability table of Dem seats given 203D194R on Election Day
The following table displays probabilities of winning X seats assuming a 50/50 split and a 50.5D49.5R split (the average Dem 2party lead) in the 38 races too close to call.
50.0D50.0R  50.5D49.5R  
X=Dem seats  Prob (X)  1 in  Prob (X)  1 in 
215  1.0%  101  0.9%  117 
216  2.0%  50  1.7%  57 
217  3.5%  28  3.2%  31 
218  5.6%  18  5.2%  19 
219  8.1%  12  7.6%  13 
220  10.5%  9.6  10.0%  10 
221  12.2%  8.2  12.0%  8.4 
222  12.9%  7.8  12.8%  7.8 
223  12.2%  8.2  12.4%  8.0 
224  10.5%  10  10.9%  9.2 
225  8.1%  12  8.6%  11.7 
226  5.6%  18  6.1%  16.4 
227  3.5%  28  3.9%  25 
228  2.0%  51  2.2%  45 
229  1.0%  102  1.1%  88 
230  0.4%  228  0.5%  195 
231  0.2%  581  0.2%  486 
232  0.1%  1,686  0.1%  1,383 
233  0.0178%  5,621  0.021%  4,519 
234  0.0046%  21,781  0.0058%  17,165 
235  0.0010%  99,569  0.0013%  76,918 
236  0.0002%  547,629  0.0001%  414,672 
237  0.00003%  3,723,876  0.000036%  2,763,934 
238  0.000003%  32,583,915  0.000004%  23,705,526 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
https://www.politico.com/electionresults/2018/house/
The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msmredtsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5fUGB9zD7icpaGMIB9DTo_Dk
GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D Red Wave?
Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018
GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.
And the GOP should win the Senate by at least 5446 seats.
According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 of 32 GOP seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.
Assuming the polls are mediabiased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have a 227208 majority. Maybe 230205 if they pick up 3 Dem seats that are too close to call.
And that is a RED WAVE.
Assuming the 2party Base Case forecast (50.9R49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230205 seats.
Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D41.9R). This is impossible.
Model Base Case Assumptions (2party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R28D45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 5248%
4) Equal 928% vote shares
PartyID  Turnout  Repub  Dem  
Rep  27%  48%  92%  8%  
Dem  28%  46%  8%  92%  
Ind  45%  44%  52%  48%  
Total  100%  45.6%  50.94%  49.06%  
Votes  36,640  35,286 
Turnout

Vote  
Rep  Dem  Ind  Total  Rep  Dem 
48%  46%  44%  45.6%  50.94%  49.06% 
49%  45%  45%  46.1%  51.45%  48.55% 
50%  44%  46%  46.5%  51.96%  48.04% 
51%  43%  47%  47.0%  52.45%  47.55% 
52%  42%  48%  47.4%  52.93%  47.07% 
53%  41%  49%  47.8%  53.41%  46.59% 
Generic Poll  RCP Average  House seats  
Dem  Rep  Dem  Rep  Dem  Rep  
2016  46  45.4  48  49.1  194  241 
2014  43.2  45.6  45.2  51.4  188  247 
2012  47.3  47.5  49.2  48  201  234 
Average  45.5  46.2  47.5  49.5  194  241 
Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.
Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which show the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.
As usual, Nate makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.
Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).
But…given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.8647.14%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.
So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.
Gallup  PartyID  Turnout  Votes  Rep  Dem 
Rep  27%  46%  19573  92%  8% 
Dem  28%  56%  24711  8%  92% 
Ind  45%  44%  31204  50%  50% 
Total  100%  47.9%  –  47.14%  52.86% 
Votes  75,488  35,586  39,902 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018midtermelectionforecast/house/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote6185.html
What is the probability the Democrats will win the House?
Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018
Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.
As usual, Nate Silver makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.
Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which shows the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018midtermelectionforecast/house/
But…Given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.947.1%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.
So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.
Generic Vote


Gallup  PartyID  Turnout  Votes  Rep  Dem 
Rep  27%  46%  19573  92%  8% 
Dem  28%  56%  24711  8%  92% 
Ind  45%  44%  31204  50%  50% 
Total  100%  47.9%  47.14%  52.86%  
Votes  75,488  35,586  39,902  
Turnout scenarios


Rep  Dem  Ind  Total  Rep  Dem 
46%  56%  44%  47.9%  47.14%  52.86% 
47%  55%  45%  48.3%  47.65%  52.35% 
48%  54%  46%  48.8%  48.14%  51.86% 
49%  53%  47%  49.2%  48.63%  51.37% 
50%  52%  48%  49.7%  49.10%  50.90% 
51%  51%  49%  50.1%  49.57%  50.43% 
52%  50%  50%  50.5%  50.03%  49.97% 
Arizona Senate Poll Analysis (Cont.)
Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2018
The latest CNN, NBC, CBS AZ senate polls show Sinema up by 4,6 and 3%. FOX has the race tied at 46%. The FOX internal numbers say otherwise.
McSally leads by 48.745.8%. But this is conservative as FOX gives her just 3% of Dems and 85% of Repubs. The assumption is that they split Independents 5050%.
When will the MSM learn? You can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema6328.html
AZ  Party ID  McSally  Sinema 
Rep  50%  85% << low  8% 
Dem  40%  3% << low  92% 
Ind/Other  10%  50%  50% 
Total  100.0%  48.7%  45.8% 
11/2 Early voting (000)  1461 ballots  611 Rep (41.8%)  495 Dem (33.9%) 
AZ  Party ID  McSally  Sinema 
Rep  50%  88%  8% 
Dem  40%  6%  92% 
Ind/Other  10%  50%  50% 
Total  100.0%  51.4%  45.8% 
McSally % Rep  
McSally  85%  86%  87%  88% 
%Dem  
8%  50.7%  51.2%  51.7%  52.2% 
7%  50.3%  50.8%  51.3%  51.8% 
6%  49.9%  50.4%  50.9%  51.4% 
5%  49.5%  50.0%  50.5%  51.0% 
4%  49.1%  49.6%  50.1%  50.6% 
3%  48.7%  49.2%  49.7%  50.2% 
AZ 2016  Party ID  Clinton  Trump  Johnson  Stein 
Dem  28.0%  89.0%  7.0%  3.0%  0.0% 
Rep  32.0%  7.0%  88.0%  3.0%  0.0% 
Ind  40.0%  44.0%  47.0%  5.0%  2.0% 
Total  100.0%  44.8%  48.9%  3.8%  0.80% 
Votes  2,573  1,152  1,259  98  21 
Margin  107  4.2% 
Arizona CBS senate poll: more anomalies
Richard Charnin
10/31/2018
The CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker shows Sinema (D) leads McSally (R) by 4744%. But applying AZ party registration ID to the poll shares, Sinema leads by just 46.145.2%, a 62% win probability. Assume equal registered voter turnout (AZ1).
Note that the poll shows McSally with just 1% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans. These are implausible shares. Let’s change the shares to 6% and 88%, respectively.
McSally leads by 48.246.1% (AZ2), a 76% win probability.
AZ1  Reg  PartyID  McSally  Sinema 
Rep  1288  34.7%  84%  9% 
Dem  1151  31.0%  1%  91% 
Ind  1272  34.3%  46%  43% 
Total  3711  100%  45.2%  46.1% 
AZ2  Reg  PartyID  McSally  Sinema 
Rep  1288  34.7%  88%  9% 
Dem  1151  31.0%  6%  91% 
Ind  1272  34.3%  46%  43% 
Total  3711  100%  48.2%  46.1% 
McSally % Dem  
McSally % Rep  1%  3%  5%  7%  9% 
McSally  
Total  
90%  47.3%  47.9%  48.6%  49.2%  49.8% 
88%  46.6%  47.2%  47.9%  48.5%  49.1% 
86%  45.9%  46.5%  47.2%  47.8%  48.4% 
84%  45.2%  45.9%  46.5%  47.1%  47.7% 
1%  3%  5%  7%  9%  
90%  66.4%  73.8%  80.2%  85.4%  89.6% 
88%  57.3%  65.5%  73.0%  79.5%  84.8% 
86%  47.5%  56.3%  64.6%  72.1%  78.7% 
84%  37.8%  46.5%  55.2%  63.6%  71.3% 
10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average
Richard Charnin
Oct.29, 2018
Nov.4 update
GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.
According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.
Assuming the polls are mediabiased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have AT LEAST a 227208 House majority. Maybe 230205 if they pick up 3 Dem too close to call seats. And that is a RED WAVE.
10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average
Assuming the 2party Base Case forecast (50.9R49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230205 seats.
Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D41.9R). This is impossible.
Model Base Case Assumptions (2party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R28D45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 5248%
4) Equal 928% vote shares
PartyID  Turnout % Registered  Turnout  Rep  Dem  
Rep  27%  48%  20424  92%  8% 
Dem  28%  46%  20298  8%  92% 
Ind  45%  44%  31204  52%  48% 
Total  100%  45.6%  —  50.94%  49.06% 
Votes  71,927  36,640  35,286  
Turnout scenarios


Rep  Dem  Ind  Total  Rep  Dem 
48%  46%  44%  45.6%  50.94%  49.06% 
49%  45%  45%  46.1%  51.45%  48.55% 
50%  44%  46%  46.5%  51.96%  48.04% 
51%  43%  47%  47.0%  52.45%  47.55% 
52%  42%  48%  47.4%  52.93%  47.07% 
53%  41%  49%  47.8%  53.41%  46.59% 
Required to match RCP  
40%  58%  40%  45.0%  45.73%  54.27% 
Generic Poll  RCP Average  House seats  
Dem  Rep  Dem  Rep  Dem  Rep  
2016  46  45.4  48  49.1  194  241 
2014  43.2  45.6  45.2  51.4  188  247 
2012  47.3  47.5  49.2  48  201  234 
Average  45.5  46.2  47.5  49.5  194  241 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote6185.html