Quinnipiac vs. Rasmussen: Trump vs. Biden approval ratings and national poll

Richard Charnin
June 14, 2019


It is way too early to consider presidential polls. But this analysis shows that the Quinnipiac Univ.  poll of Biden  leading Trump by 13% is implausible. We consider the 2016 race demographic and party-ID (Census, Gallup, Quinnipiac).

Trump’s approval ratings match his projected vote shares.
Rasmussen: Trump leads 51-47%;
Quinnipiac: Biden leads 53-40%

Rasmussen: Trump leads whites by 61-37%.
Quinnipiac: Trump leads whites by just 47-46%.
Note Trump won whites by 57-37% in 2016. Census weights are used.

Rasmussen: Trump leads Independents by 51-46%.
Quinnipiac: Biden leads by 56-28%.
Note Trump won Independents by 48-42% in 2016. The Gallup voter affiliation survey is used for weighting.

Rasmussen Sample Census Biden Trump
White 1100 73.3% 37% 61%
Black 186 12.4% 87% 12%
Hispanic,Other 215 14.3% 63% 33%
Total 1500 100.0% 46.9% 50.9%
Rasmussen Gallup
Dem 465 31% 88% 11%
Rep 450 30% 6% 93%
Ind 565 39% 46% 51%
Total 1500 100.0% 47.0% 51.2%
Quinnipiac  Sample Party-ID Biden Trump
Dem-actual 503 41.4% 95% 3%
Rep-est 470 38.7% 6% 91%
Ind-est 241 19.8% 56% 28%
Total – actual 1214 100.0% 52.8% 42.0%
Quinnipiac Census
White 890 73.3% 46% 47%
Black 151 12.4% 85% 12%
Hispanic,Other 174 14.3% 58% 33%
Total 1214 100.0% 52.6% 40.7%

This is why you should never trust MSM pollsters.

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
Reuters/Ipsos 6/10 – 6/11 983 RV 41 58 -17
Economist/YouGov 6/9 – 6/11 1107 RV 45 52 -7
Quinnipiac 6/6 – 6/10 1214 RV 42 53 -11
Politico/Morning Consult 6/7 – 6/9 1991 RV 41 56 -15
The Hill/HarrisX 6/7 – 6/8 1001 RV 45 55 -10
NPR/PBS/Marist 5/31 – 6/4 783 RV 43 49 -6
IBD/TIPP 5/30 – 6/7 906 A 42 52 -10
CNN 5/28-5/31 902 RV 40 53 -13
Average 42.57 52.86 -10.29
Rasmussen Reports 6/11 – 6/13 1500 LV 51 47 4
Harvard-Harris 5/29 – 5/30 1295 RV 48 52 -4
Zogby Analytics 5/2-5/9 852 LV 51 48 3
Average 50.00 49.00 1.00

In the CNN sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 27% as Republicans, 39% as Independents or members of another party;   86% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats and 44% of Independents approve of Trump. Total approval is 42.8%.

Trump approval is calculated for independent pollsters using Gallup Party ID: Dem 31%, Ind 38%, Rep 30%. Estimated Trump  approval is 93% Repub, 12% Dem and 46% Independent. Total approval is 49.6%.

Party-ID Gallup Trump CNN Trump
Dem 31% 12% 34% 7%
Rep 30% 93% 27% 86%
Ind 38% 46% 39% 44%
Total Approval 100% 49.6% 100% 42.8%

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Posted by on June 12, 2019 in Uncategorized


Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability

Richard Charnin
Updated: 5/26/19


There were at least n=19 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in 28 months from April 2016 to Aug 2018. 

Assuming a total of N=20,000  DNC/Wikileaks related individuals, the probability of at least 19 homicides is 1 in 113 billion. Only 2 would be expected.

Assuming N=10,000, the probability of at least n=19 homicides is 1 in 20,000 trillion. Only 1 homicide would normally be expected.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability P of at least n homicides  among a group of N individuals in T= 28 months (28/12 years), homicide rate  R=0.00005:

 P  = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true) where E=N*R*T

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

2016 (10)
4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, former UN official due to testify against HRC (barbell accident).
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC e-mail leaker to Wikileaks,shot twice in back, died in hospital.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov : Monica Petersen, investigator of Clinton Foundation, child trafficking, found dead in Haiti.

2017 (7)
May: Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails.
May: Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.
July: Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead.
Aug: Kurt Smolek, ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River.
Nov: Steve Mostyn, 46, Texas-based trial lawyer,  member of George Soros-founded Democracy Alliance, major Democratic benefactor, died suddenly. Called suicide.
Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Called suicide.

2018 (2)
Jan: James Dolan, 36, Wikileaks developer. Suicide.
Aug: Jen Moore, journalist of Clinton sex crimes, found dead in a DC hotel.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

Probability Matrix of n homicides in a group of N over 28 months (2.33 years)

n N=20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
6 3.18% 14.24% 32.58% 52.72% 69.93% 82.36%
9 0.07% 0.99% 4.85% 13.60% 27.09% 43.07%
12 0.00% 0.03% 0.32% 1.66% 5.33% 12.43%
15 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.11% 0.57% 2.03%
19 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08%
1 in Probability 
19 113 billion 153 million 1,936,786 83,084 7,701 1,212


In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


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My first job was Mathematician/ Numerical Control Engineer for Grumman Aerospace Corp

Richard Charnin
June 17, 2019
I can’t believe it’s been 50 years since Apollo 11 landed on the moon. In 1965, my first job was as a Mathematician/ Numerical Control Engineer for Grumman Aerospace Corp (GAC) which built the Lunar Module. GAC was just five minutes from my home.

In programming automated machine tools to build naval and commercial aircraft parts, I often visited the manufacturing plant to see my work in progress. It was a very exciting time working with a great group of enginners.

The NC programs were written for an IBM 7094 mainframe computer running APT(Automatic Programmed Tools) a large Fortran-based system. The 7094 took up 3000 sq feet of floor space in the engineering building. It had just 512K of RAM- less than a tablet today.

It’s amazing that primitive 1969 computer technology could achieve the moon landing. The following article by Scott Davis addresses and debunks some of the common arguments behind the Moon landing conspiracy theories.

It contains explanations of…
– Van Allen Belt Radiation
– Flag flapping on the moon
– No stars?
– Strange shadows
– Moon rock prop

Other evidence:
– Apollo 15 site past and present
– Footprints
– Moon rocks

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Posted by on June 17, 2019 in Uncategorized



Richard Charnin
May 10, 2019

Buy this book! Look inside. It is the only one which does a complete mathematical analysis of the 2016 election. Don’t believe the media/DNC/pundit propaganda that Hillary won by 2.8 million votes.


Track record: I exactly forecast the BOGUS recorded electoral vote and estimated the True Vote in each of the last three elections.



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Posted by on May 10, 2019 in Uncategorized


A VERY preliminary 2020 ELECTION MODEL forecast

Richard Charnin
April 27, 2019


This is a VERY preliminary 2020 ELECTION MODEL forecast. It is based on recorded and true vote assumptions of returning 2016 voters and forecast vote shares. The TRUE VOTE is never equal to the RECORDED VOTE

The model does not currently forecast the Electoral vote. I forecast the EV exactly in each of the last 3 elections.


2016  Recorded Turnout Mix DEM Trump Other
Clinton 59.94 44.40% 86% 9% 5%
Trump 57.36 42.49% 6% 90% 4%
Other 6.93 5.13% 45% 45% 10%
DNV (new) 10.77 7.98% 40% 45% 15%
Total 135.00 Recorded 46.24% 48.13% 5.63%
Vote (mil) 62.42 64.98 7.60
Margin 2.56
2016  True Turnout Mix DEM Trump Other
Clinton 54.66 40.49% 84% 11% 5%
Trump 60.87 45.09% 6% 92% 2%
Other 8.70 6.44% 40% 40% 20%
DNV (new) 10.77 7.98% 40% 45% 15%
Total 135.00 True Vote share 42.48% 52.10% 5.41%
True Vote 57.35 70.34 7.31
Margin 12.99
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Posted by on April 27, 2019 in Uncategorized


Bill Binney: NSA Has 32 Pages of Communications Between Seth Rich and Julian Assange

Richard Charnin
April 21, 2019


Mark F. McCarty in
View at

“About six months ago, a blogpost by “Publius Tacitus” appeared regarding attorney Ty Clevenger’s FOIA request regarding Seth Rich:
“But now there is new information that may corroborate what the human sources quoted in the Fox article claimed about Seth’s role in getting the DNC documents to Wikileaks. Borne from a FOIA request filed in November 2017 by attorney Ty Clevenger, who requested any information regarding Seth Rich and Julian Assange. The NSA informed Clevenger in a letter dated 4 October 2018 that:

Your request has been processed under the provisions of the FOIA. Fifteen documents (32 pages) responsive to your request have been reviewed by this Agency as required by the FOIA and have found to be currently and properly classified in accordance with Executive Order 13526. These documents meet the criteria for classification as set forth in Subparagraph © of Section 1.4 and remains classified TOP SECRET and SECRET.”

Here’s what Binney says:

“Ty Clevenger has FOIAed information from NSA asking for any data that involved both Seth Rich and also Julian Assange. And they responded by saying we’ve got 15 files, 32 pages, but they’re all classified in accordance with executive order 13526 covering classification, and therefore you can’t have them.

That says that NSA has records of communications between Seth Rich and Julian Assange. I mean, that’s the only business that NSA is in — copying communications between people and devices.

If Binney is interpreting this correctly — and bear in mind that, not only is he extraordinarily bright, but he is sometimes referred to as “the father of the NSA” — this provides strong support for the hypothesis that Seth was indeed Wikileaks’ source for the DNC emails it published. Assange has strongly hinted at this, Sy Hersh claims to have a trusted informant inside the FBI who states that he has seen FBI documents verifying this, and Binney himself says that he has two sources inside the intel community vouching for this.”
Read the rest of this entry »

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Posted by on April 21, 2019 in Uncategorized


Bill Binney: The Mueller Report lied about the DNC Server. It was a leak not a Russian hack

Richard Charnin
April 19, 2019


Duncan Campbell and James Risen in the Intercept

“CIA DIRECTOR MIKE POMPEO met late last month with a former U.S. intelligence official who has become an advocate for a disputed theory that the theft of the Democratic National Committee’s emails during the 2016 presidential campaign was an inside job, rather than a hack by Russian intelligence.

Pompeo met on October 24 with William Binney, a former National Security Agency official-turned-whistleblower who co-authored an analysis published by a group of former intelligence officials that challenges the U.S. intelligence community’s official assessment that Russian intelligence was behind last year’s theft of data from DNC computers. Binney and the other former officials argue that the DNC data was “leaked,” not hacked, “by a person with physical access” to the DNC’s computer system.

Binney claims the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election is false, and that the Democratic National Committee e-mails were leaked by an insider instead. He has appeared on Fox News at least ten times between September 2016 and November 2017 to promote this theory. Binney said that the “intelligence community wasn’t being honest here”. He has also been frequently cited on Breitbart News. In November 2017 it was reported that a month earlier, Binney had met with CIA Director Mike Pompeo at the behest of  President Trump.”

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Posted by on April 19, 2019 in 2016 election


Trump had the Big MO: He won voters who decided after Sep1 by at least 48-40%

Richard Charnin
Feb. 24, 2019


National Exit Poll- When Decided 

The NEP is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote.

The 2016 NEP indicates that of the 26% of voters who decided after Oct.1, 48% voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Of the 74% who decided before Oct.1, Clinton led 51-45%.

Of the 40% of voters who decided after Sept.1, Trump won by 48.0-42.0%. Clinton won voters who decided before Sept.1 by 52.5-45.0%.

Were Clinton’s  poll shares rigged to match the recorded vote? Clinton won the national recorded vote by 2.8 million. She won IL, CA and NY by a combined 7 million votes. Therefore Trump won the recorded vote by at least 4 million everywhere else.

But Trump’s True Vote margin had to be higher than 4 million. As many as 3 million of Clinton’s 7 million margin in IL, CA and NY may have been fraudulent- matching her national 2.8 million margin. Were Clinton’s votes inflated (rigged) in these and other states?

Since the NEP was forced to match Clinton’s 48.3-46.2% recorded vote, it appears that her vote shares were inflated.

The third-party Recorded vote is another clue that Clinton’s vote was rigged.
According to the National Exit Poll, 4% of voters who decided before Oct.1 voted for a third party candidate; 12% voted third party after Oct.1. Jill Stein had just 1% of the total recorded vote. Could it be that Jill really had at least 3% of which 2% or more were shifted to Clinton?

Click for state deciders href=”;

Decided…. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Oct. 1 26% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0%
Pre Oct. 1.. 74% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Decided….. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Sept. 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0%
Pre Sept 1.. 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

State exit poll………….. IL…….. CA……. NY
Total Recorded %…… 56-39-5.. 62-32-4. 60-37-3
Before Oct.1……….….66-32-2.. 67-29-4. 67-31-2 < Rigged?
After Oct.1…………… 33-55-12. 51-42-7. 38-53-9 < shift to Trump & 3rd party
Votes (mil)…………….. 5.5……. 14.2……. 7.5
Margin (mil)…………… 0.95……. 4.3…….. 1.7 Total 6.95 million


Posted by on February 24, 2019 in 2016 election

Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis