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2020 Election Model: A Trump Landslide

Richard Charnin Nov. 18, 2020

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2020 Election Model update: Trump wins in a landslide.

I forecast the electoral vote exactly in each of the last three elections. Will I do it again in 2020? Wait for the Kraken.

Trump lawyer Sydney Powell said that Trump had at least 80 million votes, exactly matching the True Vote Model. The TVM indicates that Trump won by 80.6-71.2 million votes (52.3-46.2%) and had 368 Electoral Votes. The election is the most fraudulent in history. The massive voting irregularities are all in one direction- against Trump.

Model Assumptions:

1) Final Gallup pre-election voter affiliation survey Party-ID: 31D, 31R, 38I.

2) Equal voter turnout rates. This is conservative. Republicans usually turn out at a higher rate than Democrats.

3) Trump wins 10% of Dems, 95% of Repubs and 52% of Independents.

Result: Trump wins by 9.3 million votes (52.3-46.2%) and has 368 Electoral Votes

Note the following 2016 National Exit Poll recorded shares understated Trump’s True Vote shares. The 2016 election was fraudulent. Clinton’s popular vote was inflated. She did not win the True popular vote.

Rationale: Model forecast assumptions

Trump increased his 2016 shares of

1) Dems from 8% to 10% due to gains in Black and Hispanic voters

2) Repubs from 89% to 95% due to an energized base

3) Independents from his 2016 recorded 46-42% margin to 52-45% due to the decline in third party votes from 6% to 2%.

TVMTurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem47,74031.0%90.0%10.0%0.0%
Rep47,74031.0%4.0%95.0%1.0%
Ind58,52038.0%45.0%52.0%3.0%
National Model100.0%46.2%52.3%1.5%
Votes (000)154,00071,21080,5572,233
Margin9,348170 EV368 EV
State Model100.0%46.6%52.6%0.9%
Votes154,00071,70080,9281,372
Margin9,227170 EV368 EV
Recordedas of 11/1851.0%47.3%1.7%
Votes154,00079,20173,4381,361
Margin/EV-5,763290232

2020 Election Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

 
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Posted by on November 7, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Must Read from Paul Craig Roberts: The Proof Is In: The Election Was Stolen

For those of you who find it too technical and voluminous to read through the massive evidence of election fraud, here is a brief summary: 

” I have read enough of the fraud reports, affidavits, and statements from election security and forensic experts to be comfortable in my conclusion that the election was stolen.  But I am not confident that anything will be done about the fraudulent election. The American elite no longer believe in democracy. Consider, for example, the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset.  It is anti-democratic, as is globalism. Democracy is in the way of elite agendas.  Indeed, the reason the elite despise Trump is that he bases himself in the people. Judges will not even preserve the vote record so that it can be investigated.

In Georgia a federal judge has refused to stop the Dominion voting machines from being wiped clean and reset—https://www.theepochtimes.com/judge-blocks-then-unblocks-georgia-from-wiping-or-resetting-election-machines_3597691.html   UPDATE: Judge overturns his previous order and reinstates ban on wiping and resetting Dominion machines used in Atlanta. 

 
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Posted by on December 3, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

2020 battleground state exit polls confirm election fraud by the DNC in 2016 and 2020

Richard Charnin Dec. 3, 2020

The 2020 battleground state exit polls confirm election fraud by the DNC in 2016 and 2020. The following exit polls were (as always) forced to match the reported vote. The respondents were asked: How did you vote in 2016? They said that Trump won all of them: FL 44-38%, GA 40-38, MI 42-40, MN 41-39, PA 44-41, WI 42-39. Note: Clinton won MN by 46.4-44.9%.

You would expect that Trump to do much better against Biden, who hid in his basement, never answered reporters questions and drew just a handful of people at his events compared to thousands for Trump at his many rallies.

Consider this fact: The published national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. In other words zero fraud is assumed. So we should never believe the final polls. But with appropriate adjustments to the poll weights and vote shares, the bogus exit polls can be used to estimate the True Vote.

Since the 2020 state exit polls were forced to match the bogus Biden vote, Trump’s True 2016 shares may very well be higher than the 2020 polls indicate. Therefore he did better than the bogus 2016 recorded vote. It was rigged for Clinton just like 2020 was rigged for Biden.

Therefore Trump did better than recorded in 2016 and 2020 and must have won all the battleground states by margins greater than in 2016. The massive evidence of fraud confirms it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit?

FL2016 PctBidenTrump
Clinton38936
Trump44792
Other56625
DNV135445
Total10048.7449.86
GA2016 PctBidenTrump
Clinton38963
Trump40694
Other57022
DNV152246
Total9845.6846.74
MI2016 PctBidenTrump
Clinton40964
Trump42694
Other4
DNV115148
Total9746.5346.36
MN 2016 PctBidenTrump
Clinton39963
Trump41792
Other85435
DNV103534
Total9848.1345.09
PA2016 Pct BidenTrump
Clinton41954
Trump44792
Other4
DNV106336
Total9948.3345.72
WI2016 PctBidenTrump
Clinton39954
Trump42693
Other75635
DNV114649
Total9948.5548.46
 
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Posted by on December 3, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

The 1968-2016 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
1/22/2013 Updated: 7/22/17
The National True Vote Model (TVM) has been updated to include the 2016 election. The model calculates an estimated True Vote for every election since 1968. Only two inputs are required: the election year and the calculation method (1-5). These deceptively simple inputs produce a wealth of information and insight.
The calculation methods are straightforward. Method 1 reproduces the adjusted Final National Exit Poll. One very important result is the turnout of previous election voters required to match the official recorded vote. In 1972 (Nixon), 1988 (Bush 1), 1992 (Bush 1), 2004 (Bush 2) and 2008 (Bush 2) returning Republican turnout exceeded 100%. This impossible result indicates massive election fraud.
Methods 2-5 calculate the vote shares based on alternative returning voter assumptions: method 2 assumes returning voters based on the previous election recorded vote; method 3 assumes total votes cast; method 4 assumes the previous exit poll; method 5 the previous (calculated) True Vote.
The adjusted National Exit Poll is a mathematical matrix of deceit. It is always forced to match the recorded vote. In the 12 elections since 1968, there have been over 80 million net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Democratic. And of course, the advent of unverifiable voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.
Final election vote shares are dependent on just two factors: voter turnout (measured as a percentage of previous living election voters) and voter preference (measured as percentage of new and returning voters).
The TVM uses best estimates of returning voter turnout (“mix”). The vote shares are the adjusted National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.
It turns out that the Final Exit Poll match to the recorded vote is primarily accomplished by changing the returning voter mix to overweight Republicans. For example in 2004, the National Exit Poll indicated that 43% of voters were returning Bush and 37% Gore. In 2008, 46% were returning Bush and just 37% Kerry. Both turnouts were impossible and implied millions more Bush voters than were living.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=4

 
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Posted by on November 29, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Calculate the probability that Trump wins re-election

Richard Charnin Nov. 28, 2020

Calculate the probability that Trump wins re-election. He has 232 EV and needs 270. In the following scenarios, Trump needs 2 of PA, MI, GA plus one of: AZ, NV or WI.

Scenario 1:Trump wins PA (20 EV) and GA(16 EV) and has 268 EV. Then he will win the presidency if he wins ONE of the following: MI, AZ, NV, WI. Given: a 50% probability that he will win each of the 4 states, what is the probability that he will win AT LEAST ONE state?

Solution: The probability PL that he will LOSE ALL 4 states: PL= 1/16= 6.25% = 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 . Therefore, the probability PW =15/16 = 93.75% that he will win AT LEAST ONE of the 4 states (and the presidency). Note: The same probability applies if Trump wins 2) PA and MI or 3) MI and GA.

Scenario 2: Assume Trump wins PA and GA and has a P= 33% probability of winning ANY ONE of the other four states. The probability that he will LOSE ALL 4 states is PL =19.7% = 16/ 81 = 2/3*2/3*2/3*2/3. Therefore the probability PW that he will win AT LEAST ONE (and the presidency) is PW = 1-PL = 65/81 = 80.3%. Note: The same probability applies if Trump wins 2) PA and MI or 3) MI and GA.

Therefore one must conclude that Trump’s chances of winning the presidency are excellent if he wins 2 of the three states: PA, MI, GA

 
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Posted by on November 28, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

State 2020 Election Model

Richard Charnin Nov. 27, 2020

State Election Fraud Model: Based on adjustments to the recorded vote

Latest Recorded Vote: Biden by 78.1-72.7m (51.8-48.2%) with 306-232 EV.

Election Fraud Model: Trump by 76.8-71.1m (51.9-48.1%) with 334-204 EV.

Input Data: 1) Google (Dr. Epstein): 6% vote flip to Biden, 2) Dominion: 512,095 votes flipped to Biden, 3) Lost Trump votes: 2.0 (70%) of 2.9 million.

Important: Trump did better than 334 EV. This analysis understates the full extent of the fraud. It does not include fake ballots, dead people voting, people voting 2-10x, illegal votes, disqualified ballots for no reason, disqualified manual fake entries.

An impossible anomaly in Georgia. There were 97,600 ballots for President only. We would normally expect about 48,800 each. But Biden had 96,800; Trump 800. What is the probability P that Trump would win only 800? 1 in a trillion trillion! P= normdist (8,976, 0.5, false)= 1/(10^24)

Model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=300677280

TRUMP EVBIDEN EVMarginTRUMPBIDEN
3342045,675,95151.9%48.1%
AL9737,24966.0%34.0%
AK361,27668.2%31.8%
AZ11194,44352.9%47.1%
AR6429,37767.6%32.4%
CA55-3,272,26436.5%63.5%
CO9-223,06046.3%53.7%
CT7-250,65842.8%57.2%
DE3-65,85143.3%56.7%
DC3-227,7425.9%94.1%
FL291,053,76654.8%45.2%
GA16322,49553.2%46.8%
HI4-135,46737.7%62.3%
ID4317,47868.5%31.5%
IL20-324,78047.0%53.0%
IN11665,54261.1%38.9%
IA6238,89257.2%42.8%
KS6286,60861.0%39.0%
KY8716,69166.4%33.6%
LA8528,87862.4%37.6%
ME4-32,92347.8%52.2%
MD10-479,35038.5%61.5%
MA11-924,19636.0%64.0%
MI16216,05352.0%48.0%
MN1099,03951.5%48.5%
MS6304,55063.3%36.7%
MO10660,77961.0%39.0%
MT3136,39061.5%38.5%
NE5267,50163.9%36.1%
NV644,39651.7%48.3%
NH4-8,74149.4%50.6%
NJ14-362,31844.9%55.1%
NM5-39,68147.8%52.2%
NY29-417,27947.2%52.8%
NC15399,77853.7%46.3%
ND3141,95469.8%30.2%
OH18829,90157.2%42.8%
OK7607,82969.5%30.5%
OR7-237,51944.7%55.3%
PA201,222,67258.0%42.0%
RI4-73,03542.6%57.4%
SC9446,58658.9%41.1%
SD3136,66566.3%33.7%
TN11892,09564.7%35.3%
TX381,357,68056.1%43.9%
UT6326,90064.1%35.9%
VT3-95,80935.5%64.5%
VA13383,46553.9%46.1%
WA12-559,79842.6%57.4%
WV5436,39673.6%26.4%
WI10178,34952.7%47.3%
WY3136,01274.8%25.2%
 
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Posted by on November 27, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Impossible Election Results in Georgia, Virginia, Wisconsin; Trump win probabilities in 7 battleground states with 59-94% of precincts reporting

Richard Charnin Nov. 16, 2020

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Georgia: Biden leads by 13,000 votes. There were 97,600 ballots marked for President only. Biden had 96,800; Trump 800.What is the probability P of the 96,000 vote difference? 1 in a trillion trillion! P= normdist (8,976, 0.5, false)= 1/(10^24) https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/exclusive-georgia-difference-president-ballots-president-trump-biden-statistically-impossible-indicating-obvious-election-fraud/

Virginia: Multiple Reversals and Proportional Vote Entries on Election Night after 11 PM Indicate Election Fraud https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/breaking-exclusive-multiple-reversals-proportional-vote-entries-virginia-election-night-11-pm-indicate-election-fraud-occurred-state/

 The Virginia results in the 2020 Election for President gave Joe Biden a 2.4 million vote lead over President Trump’s 2.0 million votes.  What’s odd and needs investigating is how the election ended up this way. No one seems to be questioning the votes in Virginia but they should be.  There are multiple reasons why the Virginia results in the 2020 Presidential election should be investigated”.

WisconsinLynn Landes “This answers my question regarding the connection between fractional and weighted voting tabulations.  According to Dr. Shiva and others, the voting machines used in the US in the current election and in prior elections have the ability to store votes not as binomial characters but as fractions.  This allows these machines to weigh votes for candidates and change elections based on this weighting.”  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/caught-part-3-impossible-ballot-ratio-found-milwaukee-results-change-wisconsin-election-30000-votes-switched-president-trump-biden/

Audit Statistical Technique Known as ‘Benford Analysis’ Points to Milwaukee Precincts as Central Point to Uncover Fraud  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/using-audit-statistical-technique-known-benford-analysis-wisconsin-precincts-milwaukee-absolutely-investigate-fraud/

Vote shares and the Normal Distribution: What are the approximate probabilities that Trump would win the following battleground states with 59-94% of precincts reporting?

For example: P (WI) = 94.6% = normdist (.525, 0.5, .03/1.96,true)

VotesTrumpBidenTrumpTrump
EVCounted2-party2-partyReq to winWinProb
NC1594%50.7%49.3%38.8%68.0%
NV667%49.7%50.3%50.7%41.5%
PA2064%57.7%42.3%36.3%100.0%
WI1082%52.5%47.5%38.8%94.6%
GA1683%53.8%46.2%31.5%99.3%
MI1659%54.9%45.1%43.0%99.9%
AZ1184%48.3%51.7%59.0%13.0%
 
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Posted by on November 16, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

2020 Election Fraud- Switched and deleted votes

2020 Election Fraud- Switched and deleted votes

Richard Charnin – Nov. 14, 2020

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The following spreadsheet shows state votes that have been switched from Trump to Biden and  deleted/lost. The data  has been verified.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=300677280

State vote counts are  from Nov.10. The battleground states were updated on Nov.14. The data only includes vote switching in states which use Dominion systems.

The current unadjusted count indicates that Biden leads by 78.1-72.7 million votes (50.9-47.4%) and the Electoral vote 290-232. When switched  and deleted/lost votes are factored in, Trump leads by 281-257 EV. 

Trump is leading in Georgia by 59,000 votes, a landslide in Pennsylvania and (surprisingly) in Virginia. He is trailing by 1000 votes in AZ and is within 1.5% in MI, 1% in MN and 0.4% in WI.

Third party votes caused a 1% net loss to Trump – assuming he would have won the 1.5% Libertarian vote and lost the 0.5% Green vote. Adding 1% to Trump’s vote in each state, he wins  AZ and WI and leads the Electoral vote by 302-236.

Everylegalvote.com is an excellent site which discusses fraud in depth. https://everylegalvote.com

 
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Posted by on November 14, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

2020 True Vote Model: Returning 2016 voters

2020 True Vote Model: Returning 2016 voters

Richard Charnin Nov.8, 2020

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Compare the 2020 TVM to the 2020 National Exit Poll (recorded vote). Biden is winning the recorded vote by 4.4 million ( 50.9-47.9%)

Returning 2016 voters: Assume 98% turnout of Clinton and Trump voters in 2020. Total of 150 million votes of which 22 million are new voters. No change to 2020 NEP vote shares. Biden wins by 3.8 million (50.8-46.3%)

True Vote Model: 2020 NEP indicates respondents voted  for Trump  in 2016 by 42-40% (2.5 million margin). No change to 2020 NEP vote shares. Trump wins by 370,000 votes (49.5-49.2%)

Sensitivity Analysis: If Trump won 8% of returning Clinton voters and 95% of returning Trump voters, he wins by 4.6 million votes (50.9-47.8%)

View the calculations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=0

National Exit Poll Demographics : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=99368505

 
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Posted by on November 8, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

The Michigan Software “Glitch”

Richard Charnin Nov.7, 2020

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A glitch in the software used to tabulate ballots in Antrim County, Michigan caused at least 6,000 Republican votes to be counted as Democrat, according to Michigan GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox. Antrim has a population of just 23,324. It is ranked #61 of 83 MI counties.

There are 47 MI counties which may have used the same Dominion software.

Biden won MI by 150,000 votes, so his margin is cut to approx. 138,000. If 12 other MI counties with an average of 6,000 votes have the same “glitch”, Trump wins MI. The Dominion software is used in 30 states.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/06/software-glitch-in-michigan-county-tallied-6000-republican-votes-as-democrat/

 
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Posted by on November 7, 2020 in Uncategorized