Richard Charnin Nov. 18, 2020
2020 Election Model update: Trump wins in a landslide.
I forecast the electoral vote exactly in each of the last three elections. Will I do it again in 2020? Wait for the Kraken.
Trump lawyer Sydney Powell said that Trump had at least 80 million votes, exactly matching the True Vote Model. The TVM indicates that Trump won by 80.6-71.2 million votes (52.3-46.2%) and had 368 Electoral Votes. The election is the most fraudulent in history. The massive voting irregularities are all in one direction- against Trump.
1) Final Gallup pre-election voter affiliation survey Party-ID: 31D, 31R, 38I.
2) Equal voter turnout rates. This is conservative. Republicans usually turn out at a higher rate than Democrats.
3) Trump wins 10% of Dems, 95% of Repubs and 52% of Independents.
Result: Trump wins by 9.3 million votes (52.3-46.2%) and has 368 Electoral Votes
Note the following 2016 National Exit Poll recorded shares understated Trump’s True Vote shares. The 2016 election was fraudulent. Clinton’s popular vote was inflated. She did not win the True popular vote.
Rationale: Model forecast assumptions
Trump increased his 2016 shares of
1) Dems from 8% to 10% due to gains in Black and Hispanic voters
2) Repubs from 89% to 95% due to an energized base
3) Independents from his 2016 recorded 46-42% margin to 52-45% due to the decline in third party votes from 6% to 2%.
|Margin||9,348||170 EV||368 EV|
|Margin||9,227||170 EV||368 EV|
|Recorded||as of 11/18||51.0%||47.3%||1.7%|