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An Introduction to the True Vote Model

10 Oct

An Introduction to the True Vote Model

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 10, 2010

http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModelIntro.htm

The corporate media provides the recorded vote in every election. But the recorded vote is not the same as the True Vote.
In each election, the True Vote is determined by the turnout of prior election voters and current election new voters.

This recursive function applies to all historical and future elections:
True Vote (i) = f (Returning Voters (i-1) + New Voters (i)), where i indicates the current election; i-1 is the prior.

The key number is Votes Cast (voter intent). But the media only provides the recorded vote.

Prior Election Vote (calculated for each party):
Recorded Vote
+ Uncounted Votes
= Votes Cast (Census)
– Voter mortality
= Surviving voters

Current Election Vote:
Surviving Voter Turnout
+ New Voters
= Votes Cast

To calculate the True Vote, we use unadjusted (or Preliminary) National Exit Poll shares of new and returning voters if available.

2004 True Vote Model

2000
110.9 million cast
105.4 million recorded
75% of uncounted votes to Gore
1.25% annual voter mortality

2004
98% returning voter turnout
125.7 million cast
122.3 million recorded
Preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares (13047 respondents)

Kerry wins the True Vote by 10.5 million (53.5-45.2%)

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The returning voter mix is calculated using the following methods -depending on the objective:

http://www.richardcharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm

Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix. True vote shares cast in the previous election are reduced by voter mortality and turnout in the current election and new voters are added to the mix.

Except for the 2004 election, the model used Final National Exit Poll vote share. In 2004 the Final NEP vote shares were radically changed to match the official tally. Therefore, preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the True Vote.

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.

 
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Posted by on October 10, 2010 in True Vote Models

 

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