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2010 Midterms Model – LV forecast matches Sabato’s Crystal Ball and…

28 Oct

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 28, 2010

http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

The Charnin 2010 House and Senate forecast model is based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls. The LV projections have been confirmed by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Electoral-vote.com.

All pre-election polls interview registered voters (RV); likely voters (LV) are a sub-sample based on the likely voter cutoff model (LVCM). But realclearpolitics.com and the media focus on likely voters. During the last month in every election cycle, RV polls are largely unreported by the media.

The Charnin model goes further than these and other models. It does not assume that LV polls are representative of the electorate. It is true that since the 2000 election, final projections based on likely voter (LV) polls have been quite accurate in predicting the recorded vote. But the recorded vote represents a fraudulent vote count.
Every one knows it. But only election activists talk about it.

In fact, projections based on RV polls closely approximate the True Vote. The RV polls measure the true intent of the voters – before their votes are hacked by unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators. LV polls predict a miscounted recorded vote. The pollsters and pundits don’t dare talk about that.

Therefore a simple model of vote miscount is:
Fraud = RV – LV

Pollsters and media pundits are paid to project the official recorded vote. By utilizing LV polls, they anticipate the election fraud they know is coming; the LV polls are a proxy for the recorded vote. They should project both the recorded and True Vote – but they dare not mention the fraud factor. They ignore the fact that since the 2000 election, RV projections have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the True Vote). In the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections, RV projections gave the Democrats a 7% higher margin than the corresponding final LVs.

In 2006 the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 56.4% share, matching the pre-election RV trend. But the Final NEP was forced to match the 53% recorded share.

In 2008 final pre-election RV polls indicated that Obama would win by 15%; the LV polls projected a 7% margin. Unadjusted 2008 exit poll data has not and will not be made available. That would be nice. But a True Vote analysis based on Final 2008 NEP vote shares indicates that Obama had a 58% share and won by 22 million votes. The impossible NEP returning percentage of phantom Bush voters was replaced by a feasible mix, just like it was in calculating the 2004 True Vote.

In 2010, it’s still the same old story. We can expect that the recorded vote will match the average LV projection.

The Democrats lead 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5% but only by 1.5% in the corresponding LV polls.
The GOP leads the latest House Generic LV polls by 6.6% and the RV polls by just 1.2%.

The key question is: will Democratic voter turnout overcome the systemic fraud component?

Senate Simulation Forecast
(UVA – undecided voter allocation)

Forecast Seats
Democrats GOP Dem Margin
Charnin Model
I. Equal undecided voter split

No fraud................. 52.8 45.2 7.6
Registered Voter (RV).... 52.9 45.1 7.8

Fraud: 3% Vote switch..... 49.2 48.8 1.4
Likely Voter (LV)......... 49.9 48.1 1.8 (projected recorded seats)

Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball.......49 49 0 (close match to above LV / Fraud)
Electoral-vote.com.............. 50 49 1

Charnin Model
II. Undecided voters break to Democrats
UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud.................... 54.1 43.9 10.2
Registered Voter (RV).... 53.9 44.1 8.8

Fraud: 3% Vote switch.. 50.8 47.2 3.6
Likely Voter (LV).......... 51.1 46.9 4.2

House Forecast Models
Forecast Seats
Democrats GOP GOP Margin
Charnin Model
I. Equal undecided voter split

Registered Voter (RV).... 213 222 9
Likely Voter (LV).......... 201 234 33 (projected fraudulent result)

II. Undecided voters break to Democrats
UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud............. 218 217 -1 (Dems retain control if they get a heavy turnout and undecided voters)
Fraud: 3% Vote switch.. 205 230 25

Larry Sabato - Crystal Ball 202 233 31 (close match to LV/ Fraud)
Electoral-vote.com....... 206 209 3 (20 seats are too close to call)

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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