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The True Vote Model: Components of Election Fraud – Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

30 Mar

The True Vote Model: Components of Election Fraud – Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

Source URL for 1988-2008 calculation tables:
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModelAdjustments.htm

March 29, 2011

The True Vote Model is based on National Exit Poll vote shares applied to a feasible mix of returning and new voters. A new feature has been added to the model to estimate the number of uncounted, stuffed and switched ballots that are required to fix the (recorded) vote – and steal an election.

http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm

The True Vote is approximated by the following equation:
True Vote = Recorded Vote + Net Uncounted Vote – Switched Vote
Therefore, we have:
Recorded Vote = True Vote – Net Uncounted Vote + Switched Vote

The Census Bureau survey provides an estimate of total votes cast in each election (margin of error is 0.60%).
Votes Cast = Votes Recorded + Net Uncounted Vote
Net Uncounted Vote (NUV) = Votes Cast – Votes Recorded

Notice the steady decline in NUV since 1988 as mechanical voting machines (levers, punch cards) were phased out by DREs and optical scanners.

1988 – 102.2 million cast, 91.6 million recorded (10.6m).
1992 – 113.9 million cast, 104.4 million recorded (9.5m).
1996 – 105.0 million cast, 96.3 million recorded (8.7m).
2000 – 110.8 million cast, 105.4 million recorded (5.4m)
2004 – 125.7 million cast, 122.3 million recorded. (3.4m)
2008 – 132.3 million cast, 131.4 million recorded (0.9m).

National Recorded Vote Miscounts (estimated)
(in millions)

2008 – Cast 132.3, Uncounted 1.3, Stuffed 0.4, Switched 6.4
2004 – Cast 125.7, Uncounted 4.4, Stuffed 1.0, Switched 5.4
2000 – Cast 110.8, Uncounted 6.6, Stuffed 1.2, Switched 0.2
1996 – Cast 105.0, Uncounted 9.4, Stuffed 0.7, Switched 0.4
1992 – Cast 113.9, Uncounted 11.4, Stuffed 1.9, Switched 4.0
1988 – Cast 102.2, Uncounted 12.3, Stuffed 1.6, Switched 0.5

If NUV is >0, more votes were cast than recorded (more ballots were uncounted than stuffed).
If NUV is <0, there were more votes recorded than cast (more ballots were stuffed than uncounted).
We cannot know how many votes were actually uncounted or stuffed – we only know the net difference.

For instance, if NUV =200, it could be the result of 300 uncounted and 100 stuffed ballots. Or 400 uncounted and 200 stuffed. If the actual number of uncounted votes were known, the number of stuffed ballots could be calculated. And vice – versa.

If the votes are switched in cyberspace, the number of total votes cast is unchanged.

National 2004:
Bush won by 62-59 million recorded votes
Kerry won the True vote by 67-57 million.
There were 3.44 million net uncounted votes.
Estimate 4.40 million uncounted votes
NUV = Uncounted – Stuffed
Stuffed = 0.96 = 4.40 -3.44

Kerry wins 75% of the 4.4 million uncounted.
Assume that 90% of the stuffed ballots were for Bush.
Based on these numbers. over 5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

Ohio 2004
Bush won by 119k recorded votes.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 54-45.5% a 500K margin.
According to RFK, Jr., there were approximately 350,000 uncounted votes.
Assume that 75% (263k) of the uncounted ballots were for Kerry and 86k for Bush.

There were 143k more votes recorded than cast (143k net stuffed).
NUV = -143k = Uncounted – Stuffed ballots
Stuffed ballots = Uncounted – NUV = 493k = 350k – (-143k)
Assume 90% of the ballots (445k) were stuffed for Bush and 10% (49k) for Kerry,
Then Kerry’s NUV = 214k = 263k – 49k

The remaining unknown is the number of Kerry votes switched.
Kerry’s 2.962 million True Vote exceeded his 2.741 million recorded by 221k (required adjustment).
Switched votes = Required adjustment – NUV
Switched = 7k = 221k – 214k

Florida 2004
Bush won by 381k recorded votes.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2%, a 200k margin.
There were 238k more votes recorded than cast (238k net stuffed).
Estimate approximately 221k uncounted votes.

We estimate that 75% (166k) of the uncounted ballots were for Kerry and 53k for Bush.
Since NUV = -238k = Uncounted – Stuffed ballots.
Stuffed ballots = Uncounted – NUV = 459k = 221k – (-238k)
Assume that 90% of the ballots (413k) were stuffed for Bush and 10% (46k) for Kerry,
Then Kerry’s NUV = 120k = 166k – 46k

The remaining unknown is the number of Kerry votes that were switched.
Kerry’s 3.760 million True Vote exceeded his 3.584 million recorded vote by 176k (required adjustment).
Switched votes = Required adjustment – NUV
Switched = 56k = 176k – 120k

New York
As a heavily Democratic stronghold, New York afforded a great opportunity for padding the Bush popular vote.
Even though Kerry won the recorded vote by 1.3 million, who has questioned his 58-40% landslide margin?
Kerry’s True Vote matched the unadjusted exit poll: 64-35%.The 12% margin discrepancy accounted for nearly 1/3 of Bush’s 3 million vote “mandate”.

There were 307k more votes cast than recorded (307k net uncounted).
If 462k were uncounted, then 152k ballots were stuffed, 139k for Bush.
Therefore, 282k votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.
Kerry’s true margin was cut by 910k votes.

Below is a statistical comparison 22 states, a combination of battleground and Kerry and Bush strongholds.
Kerry had a weighted 54.4% exit poll share and 49.8% recorded.

The following estimates are based on the following;
a) Census total votes cast
75% of uncounted votes were for Kerry
c) 100% of ballot stuffing was for Bush.
d) The unadjusted exit polls (Kerry 52.0% state aggregate) are used as the baseline. Kerry’s True Vote was close to 53.5%

In the 22 states, uncounted votes were approximately 5.2% of total cast. Stuffed ballots comprised 3.2%.
Based on the above, approximately 3.2% of total votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.

Again, it is important to note that uncounted votes are estimates. Only NUV is known. Regardless of the estimate, the final net adjustment is the difference between the recorded and true vote/exit poll. In the final analysis, the discrepancy is known – a combination of uncounted votes, stuffed ballots and switched votes. The combination is a function of the voting system(s).

The state data table is sorted by total votes cast.
These states had more votes recorded than cast: OH, FL, TN, CT, VA and MI.
Florida had 238k net stuffed ballots, Ohio 143k, Tennessee had 118k.
States with the highest percentage of uncounted ballots: NM, SC, AL
NC, NY and NH led in the percentage of votes switched.

 
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Posted by on March 30, 2011 in True Vote Models

 

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