Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

05 Aug

Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

Aug. 4, 2011

Richard Charnin

http://richardcharnin.com/WisconsinRecallElectionProjections.htm

The Democrats need to win 3 of 6 GOP seats in the recall elections to gain control of the Wisconsin senate.

Assuming the Wisconsin 2008 presidential election
1) Recorded vote shares and fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win 1 or 2 GOP seats.
2) Recorded vote shares and zero fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win 3 GOP seats.
3) True Vote shares and zero fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win all 6 GOP seats.

The Wisconsin Recall Projection Model is based on the following assumptions for each of the 6 GOP districts:
1. 2008 Presidential Election recorded vote
2. Estimated 2008 Fraud Factor (i.e. reduction in Obama’s True District vote share)
3. Obama voter turnout rate in recall
4. McCain voter turnout rate in recall
5. Democratic share of returning Obama voters
6. Democratic share of returning McCain voters

For the selected district, two sensitivity analysis tables display nine Democratic vote share scenarios based on
1) Democratic vote shares of returning Obama and McCain voters
2) Obama and McCain turnout rates

Base Case Assumptions
1) Equal 63% Turnout of Obama and McCain voters
2) Democratic 91% share of Obama voters
3) Democratic 5% share of McCain voters

Recall Election Fraud Scenarios
Assume that…
1) Obama’s Wisconsin True Vote was 1% higher than recorded
2) Equal Obama/McCain percentage turnout in the recall elections
3) Democrats win 92% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters
then
The GOP needs to flip 2% of Democratic votes to retain senate control. Assuming the Democrats win 94% of returning Obama voters, the GOP would need to flip 3%.