Can the GOP win the Aug 16 Democratic Recall Elections?
August 16, 2011
Election results are always a function of voter turnout, returning voter preference and…election fraud.
This is a scenario analysis to determine what it would take for the Democrats to lose one or both seats.
In the base case scenario we assume equal turnout of Obama and McCain voters, zero net defection and no fraud.
The sensitivity analysis tables display Democratic vote shares over a range of turnout and voter preferences.
District 12 is vulnerable.
In 2008, Obama had 52.5% in District 2 – and the GOP won the recall.
Obama had 52.8% in District 12.
Pre-election polls show Holperin winning,
Holperin will win, assuming zero fraud, zero net defection and equal turnout rates of Obama and McCain voters.
But he could still lose – if the election is stolen.
Assuming equal turnout rates of Obama and McCain voters, the GOP needs a 6% net defection of returning Obama voters to win.
Assuming equal turnout and zero net defection, the GOP would have to switch 4% of Holperin’s votes.
District 22 appears safe. Obama had 57.3% in the district.
Assuming equal turnout, the GOP needs a net 13% defection of Obama voters to capture the seat.
Assuming equal turnout and zero defection the GOP needs to switch 9% of Wirch’s votes.
Link to the source data analysis tables: