A Statistical Analysis of the Wisconsin Recall Elections
Aug. 17, 2011
The numerical analysis is based on the Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model.
The Democrats won 5 of the 9 recall elections and won the overall popular vote with a 50.5% share. In 2008, Obama won all 9 districts with a 54.5% share.
The Republicans won 4 of the 6 GOP districts with 55.2%. Obama had 51.5% in the four districts. To accomplish this, there had to be an implausibly low Obama voter turnout and/or an implausibly high defection of Obama voters.
The Democrats did 3.2% better than Obama in the three Democratic recalls, but 5.4% worse in the 6 GOP recalls, an implausible difference.
In the GOP districts, voter turnout was 65% of the 2008 presidential election; it was 48% in Democratic districts.
These anomalies, combined with documented evidence of voting irregularities and exit poll results, are very strong indicators of Election Fraud. It is very likely that the Democrats won at least seven of the nine elections.
In the 6 GOP recall elections, 65% of Obama and McCain voters returned to vote. Assuming zero net defection, approximately 58% of Obama voters and 85% of McCain voters turned out. That is a very implausible difference. Assuming equal 65% turnout, the Democrats won 82% of Obama voters and Republicans won 92% of McCain voters – an implausible 10% net Obama defection.
In the 2 GOP districts won by the Democrats with an average 53.2% share, Obama had 55.9%. Total turnout was 66%. Approximately 63% of Obama voters turned out. That is plausible. Assuming equal turnout, the Democrats won 91% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters. Very plausible.
The 3 Democratic recall elections were landslides. The Democrats had a 58.8% aggregate share. Obama had 55.5%. Approximately 48% of 2008 voters turned out. Assuming zero net defection, 52% were Obama and 44% McCain. That is plausible. Assuming equal 48% turnout, the Democrats won 98% of Obama and 8% of McCain voters (6% net McCain defection). Also plausible.