2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Dec. 24, 2011
This analysis has been updated to include the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls.
The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site:
In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic late vote share was 7% higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.
On Election Day 2000, 102.6 million votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6 million uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2004, 116.7 million votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2008, 121.21 million were recorded. Obama led by 63.4-56.1m (52.3-46.3%). There were 10.16m late votes recorded after Election Day. Obama won these late votes by 59.2-37.5%, a 7% increase in his Election Day share and 15% increase in margin. The final recorded vote total was 131.4 million. Obama won by 69.5-59.9m (52.87-45.62%).
It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because
1) They were cast using paper ballots, not on unverifiable DREs
2) Since the winner was known on Election Day, there was nothing to gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.
The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. But the state exit polls were generally very close to the late recorded vote shares. The largest percentage deviations were in states with a relatively small number of late votes – as to be expected. Assuming that the late votes were fairly representative of the total state electorate, then the late votes can be viewed as super exit polls with thousands more respondents than corresponding state exit polls in which 1000-2500 voters are interviewed.
2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes
Obama won the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5% – a close match to his 59.2% late recorded share. There were 83,000 exit poll respondents. The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a 61-37% margin and had a 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.
Obama’s late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the following states. He had…
64.5% of New Jersey’s 224,000 late recorded votes and 63.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
67.9% of Maryland’s 277,000 late votes and 67.2% in the exit poll.
70.7% of New York’s 584,000 late votes and 71.5% in the exit poll.
54.6% of Ohio’s 500,000 late votes and 56.3% in the exit poll.
51.6% of Florida’s 405,000 late votes and 52.1% in the exit poll.
68.9% of Illinois’ 183,000 late votes and 66.3% in the exit poll.
47.5% of Mississippi’s 77,000 late votes and 48.4% in the exit poll.
49.7% of Tennessee’s 19,000 late votes and 47.7% in the exit poll.
49.1% of South Carolina’s 117,000 late votes and 47.6% in the exit poll.
46.2% of Kansas’ 32,000 late votes and 46.1% in the exit poll.
2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes
There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.
Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6% (76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.
Assuming that Kerry’s 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the True Vote Model which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.
This is further evidence that the “pristine” exit polls were close to the True Vote, namely:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True Vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.