Walker Recall: The Exit Pollster’s MO Never Changes

09 Jun

Richard Charnin
June 9, 2012

The exit pollster’s MO never changes. In the recall, the pundits said it was “too close to call”. I’m quite sure that Barrett was winning, but the media knew the fix was in so they had to keep it close. They knew the actual exit poll numbers would not see the light of day. But they sure called it quickly for Walker, didn’t they?

The pollster’s have had plenty of experience in adjusting exit polls to match the vote count.

In 2004, preliminary state exit poll numbers were downloaded from the CNN website by Jonathan Simon. Kerry led by 50-48%. The state polls were already in the process of being matched to the recorded vote. But Bush was winning the vote count – a massive divergence from the exit polls.

We later learned that Kerry led the National Exit Poll from 4pm to midnight. At 4pm (8349 respondents) he led by 51-48%. At 730 pm (11027 respondents) by 51-48%. At 1222am (13047) by 51-47%. But we didn’t see these numbers. They were not meant for public viewing.

The next day, the CNN and NYT websites showed that Bush won the National Exit Poll (13660) by 51-48% – matching the recorded vote. How did the final 613 National Exit Poll respondents enable Bush to flip the vote? The exit pollsters never could answer that one. After all, the flip was mathematically impossible.

The unadjusted 2004 exit polls (state and national) were not released until about a year ago, long after the damage was done. And guess what? Kerry actually won the 13660 respondents! He had 7064 (51.7%), Bush 6414 (47.0%), Other 182 (1.3%).

Someday, probably in 2022, we’ll get to see the unadjusted recall exit poll numbers. In the meantime, here’s the 2004 National Exit Poll Timeline that was “not meant for public viewing”.

And let’s not forget the 2000 selection. The media told us the election was close in Florida and nationwide. But they did not tell us that Gore won the
1) National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)by 48.5%-46.3%, a 2.7 million margin.
2) 50 state exit polls (58,000 respondents)by 50.8%-45.5%, a 6 million margin.
3) Florida exit poll (1,816 respondents)by 53.4%-43.6%. a 500,000 vote margin.

The media myth is that
1) Gore won the national popular vote by 540,000 votes.
2) Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

All we know is that the Florida recount was halted by the Supreme Court.

Gore won exit polls in the following states – but lost all in the official vote.
He needed just ONE to win the election.

– Republican recorded presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 226 (82.4%) of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. One would normally expect approximately 137 (50%). The probability is virtually ZERO.

– The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 126 (46%) of the 274 polls. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 (5%). The probability is ZERO.

– 123 of the 126 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded moved to the recorded vote in favor of the Republican (the “red shift”). Just 3 moved in favor of the Democrat (” the blue shift”). There is a ZERO probability that this one-sided shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

– The Republicans won the recorded vote in 55 states in which the Democrats won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost the recorded vote in just two states (Iowa and Minnesota in 2000) in which they won the exit poll. If the elections were fair, the number of vote flips would be nearly equal. The probability of this disparity is virtually ZERO.

Calculating the probabilties

The probability P that 55 of 57 exit polls would flip from the Democrats in the exit polls to the Republicans in the recorded vote is given by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P= 1.13E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

The probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Republican and 7 for the Democrat.

Given the relationship between the exit poll, margin of error and corresponding win probability, we compare the 274 state exit polls to the corresponding recorded votes. The Republicans did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 226 (82.4%) of the 274 elections. The probability of this one-sided red-shift is 3.7E-31 or 1 in 2.7 million trillion trillion.

The MoE was exceeded in 123 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 3 for the Democrat. The simple Poisson spreadsheet function calculates the probability P:
P = 5E-106 = Poisson (123, .025*274, false)
P = 1 in 1.8 billion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.
The probability is ZERO. There are 106 places to the right of the decimal!
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000005

Listen to Stephen Spoonamore – a Republican computer security expert:


4 responses to “Walker Recall: The Exit Pollster’s MO Never Changes

  1. davidgmills

    June 11, 2012 at 12:14 am

    I didn’t know about the 2004 update last year. 4.7% margin. Damn. It really was worse than I even thought it would be. That’s a lot of timid Bush voters. I never thought the numbers would be released. I wonder why they finally did it.

  2. Marathon county resident

    June 11, 2012 at 3:12 pm

    Why did Wausau, Wisconsin lose 4,893 registered voters between April 3, 2012 and June 5, 2012? [their official website]
    Under voter turnout [bottom of page] the numbers show that there are 24,828 registered voters on April 3, 2012, 19,702 on May 8, 2012 and 19,935 on June 5, 2012. WTF. Did almost 5,000 people unregister? They claim 75% turnout? Not the Math I learned in the Wausau Education system.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: