The Walker Recall True Vote Model: Implausible Vote Shares Required to Match the Vote
July 11, 2012
This analysis uses the Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model (TVM) to calculate Walker’s share of Obama returning voters that were required to match the state/county recorded vote. It is further evidence that Walker’s recorded margin was implausible and that Barrett very likely won the election.
Walker won in 2010 by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. His margin improved in 2012: he won by 171,105 votes and had a 53.1% share.
This worksheet provides a comparative analysis of the 2010 and 2012 elections.
In the recall, Walker’s biggest vote margins (in thousands) were in these counties: Waukesha (96), Washington (36), Brown (21), Ozaukee (20) and Outagamie (18). His biggest margin increases were in Taylor, Trempealeau, Price, Outagamie and Clark. The biggest vote gains were in Waukesha, Milwaukee, Outagamie, Brown and Dane.
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. But he had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. Although the exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote, we will be conservative and use the recorded vote in this analysis.
It is important to note the sensitivity analysis tables in the TVM. They display vote shares and margins over a range of turnout and vote share assumptions around the base case.
The following DEFAULT assumptions can be overidden on the INPUT sheet:
1) Equal turnout rates for returning Obama and McCain voters.
2) Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is estimated as an increment applied to his base case 90% Wisconsin share.
3) Shares of New voters are set to the estimated 2008 vote shares.
4) Barrett won 5% of returning McCain voters
The model calculates Walker’s share of Obama returning voters that were required to match the state/county recorded vote.
The “2010-2012” worksheet provides a comparative analysis of the 2010 and 2012 elections
KEY STATE AND COUNTY RESULTS
The very conservative assumption is that Obama’s recorded 56.2% share was his True share. But he did better than that. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, therefore Barrett probably did better than his True Vote shown below.
Obama had 56.2%.
Barrett had 47.1% and lost by 171,000 votes.
Walker needed 23% of returning Obama voters.
Barrett True Vote: 53.6%, 193k margin.
Obama had 36.4%.
Walker had 72.4% and won by 96,000 votes.
Walker True Vote: 65%, a 65k vote margin.
Walker needed 36% of returning Obama voters.
Obama had 67.3%.
Barrett had 63.2% and won by 107,000 votes.
Barrett True Vote: 65%, 122k margin.
Walker needed 10% of returning Obama voters.
Obama had 72.8%.
Barrett had 69.1% and won by 99k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 71%, 110k margin.
Walker needed 8% of returning Obama voters.
Obama had 54.9%.
Barrett had 36.1% and lost by 48k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 52% and won by 4,000 votes.
Walker needed 38% of returning Obama voters.
Obama had 53.1%.
Barrett had 46.7% and lost by 5k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 50.3% and won by 1,000 votes
Walker needed 18% of returning Obama voters.
Obama had 63.8%.
Barrett had 55.7% and lost by 8k votes.
Barrett True Vote: 61% and won by 15,000 votes.
Walker needed 17% of returning Obama voters.
The Walker Recall County/Ward Database
This spreadsheet database was created to facilitate analysis. A data filter function let’s one quickly view Ward totals for a given county. In addition, vote shares are calculated and automatically sorted.
The data is available as an Excel spreadsheet from Wisconsin GAB. The file consists of 3500 Ward vote records. By itself, it is not very useful since the viewer must scroll through all the records to get the desired county – a time-consuming process.
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