The Election Fraud Quiz

Richard Charnin

August 21, 2012

Updated: June 21, 2013

After completing the quiz link to the Election Fraud Quiz Spreadsheet . Click the ‘Answers’ tab. Enter the number of questions you answered correctly on the ‘Scores’ sheet. Only you know your test score. Do not enter name, code or initials, just the number of correct answers.

View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll reference

Election Fraud: An Introduction Exit Poll Probability Analysis

1) Approximately how many ballots were uncounted in the 1988-2008 presidential elections?

a) 10 million, b) 30 million, c) 40 million

2) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 126 of 274 state exit polls. Of the 126, 123 red-shifted to the Republican. What is the probability that 123 of 274 exit polls would exceed the margin of error and shift to the Republican in the vote?

a) 1/million, b) 1/trillion, c) (1/trillion)^8

3) The 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) was adjusted to match the recorded vote won by Bush, 50.7-48.3%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates the actual survey response showed that Kerry won by

a) 50-49%, b) 51.1-47.6%, c) 51.7-47.0%

4) In 2000, Bush had 50.5 million votes. The final adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicates that 52.6 million (43%) of the 122.3 million who voted were returning Bush 2000 voters. This is

a) plausible, b) implausible, c) impossible

5) In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000. According to the Census, approximately 6 million votes were uncounted. If all votes cast were counted, a reasonable estimate of Gore’s True Vote margin is

a) 1 million, b) 2 million, c) 4 million

6) In 1988, Bush beat Dukakis by 48.9-41.8 million. How many Bush 1988 voters did the 1992 National Exit Poll indicate returned to vote in 1992?

a) 47 million, b) 45 million, c) 55 million

7) In 2004, Bush won Florida by 52.1-47.1%. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents; 2.4% margin of error) by 50.8-48.0%. The probability of the 7.8% discrepancy is approximately

a) 1 in 500, b) 1 in 1500, c) 1 in 3000

8) In 2000, Al Gore won the recorded popular vote over Bush (51.0-50.5 million). Approximately 2.5 million Bush voters died prior to 2004. Therefore 48 million Bush voters were alive, of whom 47 million voted. The 2004 National Exit Poll indicates that 52.6 million (43% of the 122.3 million electorate) were returning Bush voters. How many Bush phantom voters were required to match the recorded vote?

a) 2 million, b) 4.6 million, c) 5.6 million

9) In 2008 there were 131.4 million recorded votes. The National Exit Poll indicates that 60.3 million (46%) were returning Bush and 48.6 million (37%) Kerry voters. Bush had 62.0 million recorded votes in 2004. The 11.7 million difference between returning Bush and Kerry voters is

a) plausible, b) implausible, c) impossible

10) In 2008, Obama had 52% (63 of 121 million) of votes recorded on Election Day. What was his share of the 10 million votes recorded after Election Day?

a) 52%, b) 54%, c) 59%

11) According to the 2004 Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), 86 of 88 touch screens switched votes from Kerry to Bush. What are the odds of this occurrence (assume a random sample of independent, unbiased machines)?

a) 1 in 3 million b) 1 in 123 million, c) 1 in 79 billion trillion

12) In the 2006 midterms, the Generic 120-poll trend projected a 56.4% Democratic share. The National Exit Poll was adjusted to match the 52% recorded share. What was the unadjusted Exit Poll share?

a) 52.3%, b) 54.1%, c) 56.4%

13) The 2000 Census indicates 110.8 million votes were cast; the 2004 Census indicates 125.7 million. Given a) the 1.25% annual voter mortality rate, b) estimated 98% turnout of living 2000 voters in 2004, and c) unadjusted National Exit Poll vote shares, what was the True Vote (in millions)?

a) Kerry by 67-57, b) Kerry by 63-61, c) Bush by 63-61

14) In the 1988-2008 presidential state elections, the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. They won the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by

a) 49-45%, b) 52-41%, c) 50-44%

15) The majority of late undecided voters almost always break for the challenger. On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating. Final 2004 pre-election polls indicated a 47% tie with 5% undecided. Since Kerry was the challenger, what was the most likely projection?

a) Kerry by 52-47%, b) Kerry by 51-48%, c) too close to call

16) In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated approximately 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive. This indicates that

a) something is wrong with the poll

b) something is wrong with the vote

c) something is wrong with the poll and vote

d) no conclusion can be drawn

17) Kerry had 54.1% in the Ohio unadjusted exit poll (2.8% margin of error). The probability that he had at least 51.3% is a) 90%, b) 95%, c) 97.5%

18) In 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008, 226 red-shifted to the GOP. Assuming all elections were fair, how many would normally be expected to red-shift?

a) 180, b) 137, c) 145

19) Given the 95% confidence level, how many of the 274 state exit polls would normally be expected to exceed the margin of error?

a) 14, b) 34, c) 44

20) In order to calculate the True Vote, the analyst needs to estimate

a) number of votes cast in the prior and current election

b) turnout rates of prior election living voters

c) each candidate’s shares of new and returning voters

d) all of the above

21) In 2012, Obama had 50.3% of 117.4 million votes recorded on Election Day. There were 11.7 million late votes. What was Obama’s late vote share?

a) 52%, b) 55%, c) 58%

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.

2004 Election Model

Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)

State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV

National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%

Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV

True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend

Electoral vote and win probability

Electoral and popular vote

Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability

National poll trend

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms

Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%

Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%

2008 Election Model

Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)

State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV

National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%

Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV

True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)

Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability

Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability

Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview

True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model

Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean

Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV

True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)

Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released

Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview

Electoral Vote Trend

Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution