Early Voting: good for Obama. Election Day Voting: not so much

Richard Charnin

Oct. 15, 2012

Note:This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model.

Click this link to the final 2012 forecast. It was exactly right: Obama had 51.6% (2-party) and 332 EV with a 99.6% win probability. But his True Vote was 55% with 380 EV. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 EV and 52.9% with a 100% win probability. But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV. http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

Early voting appears to be strongly for Obama – just like in 2008. This analysis compares early voting by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots to Election Day voting.

The objective is to estimate 2008 Election Day vote shares for each state given its early voting percentage, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote share.

In 2008, 40.6 million (30.6%) of 131.3 million votes were cast early on paper ballots that were hand-delivered or mailed in. Mail-in ballots accounted for 31.7% of early votes.

Analysis of 2008 exit poll data shows that the states which voted early had the highest percentage of early votes had the lowest exit poll discrepancies (red-shift).

Obama had 58.0% in the state exit poll aggregate, but just 52.9% recorded. The assumption in this analysis is that early vote shares were approximately equal to the unadjusted exit polls – and Obama’s True Vote.

Election Day vote shares required to match the recorded vote are calculated using this formula:

**Election Day share = (Recorded share – Early vote share) / Election Day share of total vote **

**Therefore, Obama’s estimated Election Day share was approximately:
50.5% = (52.9 – 58.0*.31) / .69 = (52.9-17.8) / .69
**

Note: Obama’s total early vote was equal to his 58% exit poll times the early voting share of the total recorded vote. Therefore, assuming Obama had 58% of the 31% who voted early, he must have had a 50.5% share on Election Day. The 7.5% discrepancy from his True 58% share was likely due to the systemic election fraud factor.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)

Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)

State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV

Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV

True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model

Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);

Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV

State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV

True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model

Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean

Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV

True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)

Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released

Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released