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Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

19 Jan

Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

This is a summary of my 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

This spreadsheet contains the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls and true vote model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Note that the Election Model forecasts are based on final state pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls, a subset of the total Registered Voters (RV) polled. The LVs always understate Democratic voter turnout; many new (mostly Democratic) voters are rejected by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Total votes cast include net uncounted votes which are 70-80% Democratic. The combination of the LVCM and uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean), 322 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (BOGUS match to recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Projection Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (match BOGUS recorded vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models

 

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