JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

16 Aug

JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

Richard Charnin
August 30, 2013
Updated:Jan.11,2015

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This post will illustrate the methodology used to calculate the probabilities of the unnatural deaths of JFK witnesses. JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths contains 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths, probability calculations, graphs and links to other data sources.

When the film Executive Action was released in 1973, it ignited a controversy. It noted that an actuary engaged by the London Times calculated 100,000 trillion to one odds that 18 material witnesses would be dead within three years of the assassination (8 homicides, 2 suicides, 3 accidents, 3 heart attacks and 2 from natural causes). In 1979. a statistician testified at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) and claimed that since the witness universe was unknowable, the calculation was invalid, effectively stating that the problem as unsolvable. At that point, the controversy apparently ended. No one has come forth since to analyze the problem while political pundits, bloggers and others have quoted the HSCA result as gospel. But a fairly straightforward mathematical analysis confirms the actuary’s calculation – and proof of a conspiracy.

As noted in previous posts, the universe of witnesses is known. Approximately 1100 were called to testify at the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate and HSCA investigations. Of the 1100, 67 are included in JFK Calc. Of the 552 witnesses were interviewed by the Warren Commission, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally) from 1964-1978.

Warren Commission defenders who try to refute witness connections to the assassination can no longer make that claim: the witnesses were relevant enough to be called to testify in at least one of the four investigations. But even the connection is a non-issue. What matters is that among a known universe of witnesses, a statistically impossible number died from unnatural causes. That is a mathematical certainty. The mortality data constitutes the factual evidence in plain sight. The probability calculations of the these unnatural deaths are 1 in trillions. This should put an end to the debate. Anyone who follows the analysis and still defends the Warren Commission report is either a fool or a fraud. Those who cannot follow it have no basis for even attempting to refute it.

The JFC Calc database includes 122 witnesses who died mysteriously in the 15 years following the JFK assassination (there have likely been many others). The witnesses are primarily from Jim Marrs’ Crossfire list.

At least 78 deaths were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 from unknown causes). Based on unnatural death statistics, approximately 17 would normally be expected. But the suicides, accidental and “natural” deaths were highly suspicious; there were probably more than 78 unnatural deaths. At least some of the “natural” deaths may have been induced heart attacks or poisonings. If they were in fact homicides, the weighted unnatural mortality rate and associated probabilities would be lower (the homicide rate is much lower than accidents and suicides). But it’s a moot point; the probabilities are essentially zero for the official causes of death.

According to the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there were approximately 1400 individuals related to the assassination. Of this group, 97 are included in JFK Calc. The other 25 who are not in Who’s Who are very relevant.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

To calculate probabilities, we need just a few data inputs:
a) N, the number of material witnesses
b) n, the number of unnatural deaths by type (homicide, suicide, accident)
c) R, the weighted average unnatural mortality rate
d) T, the time period

There are a number of ways to calculate the probabilities.
1. Choose the universe of witnesses: WC (552); four investigations (1100); HSCA, Who’s Who (1400 est.)
2. Choose the appropriate mortality rate to apply (total unnatural, homicide, weighted)
3. Determine the time period: 1, 3, 15 years

The simplest approach is to use the total unnatural rate. Nationally, suicides and accidental deaths are 10 times more likely than homicides. But among the JFK-witnesses, at least 34 of the 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths were homicides. The average weighted mortality rate is a function of the number and causes of unnatural deaths, not just the total number. The weighted rate is
R= 0.000247=(0.000084*34 + 0.000594*24 + 0.000130*16 + 0.00001*3)/ 78

The next step is to calculate the probabilities using the POISSON spreadsheet function, a simple tool which requires just the observed (n) and expected (E) number of unnatural deaths. E is the product of the total number (N) of witnesses in a group, the mortality rate (R) and time period (T) in years.

In the spreadsheet we calculate the exact probability P of n deaths among N witnesses in T years as
P = POISSON (n, E, false). Probability of at least n deaths is P = 1 – POISSON (n-1, E, true).

Unweighted and Weighted Mortality Rates

JFK Calc has all the information required for a robust analysis: a) known witness universe, b) official cause of death, c) average unnatural mortality rates and d) the relevant time period (1964-1978). The weighted unnatural rate is the sum-product of the individual unnatural rates and corresponding deaths.

Nationally, accidents comprised 66% of unnatural deaths compared to 11% for homicides. But 44% (34 of 78) JFK witness unnatural deaths were homicides. Therefore we need to weight the JFK-witness rates by cause of death. If the analysis was restricted to homicides the mathematical proof would be simpler and even more powerful.

To Tom Hanks, Vince Bugliosi, Stephen King, Rachel Maddow et al: The case for conspiracy is closed. You are beating a dead horse. You continue to shill for the Warren Commission which Jim Garrison called a fairy tale and Richard Nixon said was one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the public. If after reading this mathematical proof, along with the mountain of physical evidence which proves a conspiracy, you still persist in telling the people lies, then you are complicit in aiding and perpetuating the crime of the century and can go back to sleep. That is, if you still can sleep at night.

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Posted by on August 16, 2013 in JFK