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JFK Witness Unnatural Deaths: A Statistical Summary

18 Sep

JFK Witness Unnatural Deaths: A Statistical Summary

Richard Charnin
Sept. 30, 2013
Updated: April 26,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

This is a summary overview of JFK-related witness death statistics and probabilities. The focus is on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides, unknown), but many suspicious (natural) deaths may have been homicides. Witness categories include FBI, CIA, Dallas police, anti-Castro Cubans, Mafia, Ruby and Oswald associates, reporters and eyewitnesses.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet is updated frequently. There were 122 suspicious deaths among approximately 1400+ JFK-related witnesses from 1964-1978. At least 78 deaths (including 34 homicides) were officially ruled unnatural. But approximately 25 accidents and suicides were likely homicides. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

These graphs and tables are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

Warren Commission apologists have claimed that the witnesses were self-selected. That is not true. All were material and related to the assassination. At least 67 were sought to testify in one or more investigations; the others were highly relevant (see the selected list below).

Given that there were approximately 1400 individuals related to the assassination, why would at least 78 die unnaturally when just 18 would be expected? The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is 2.76E-62 or less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!!!

Therefore the probability threshold of beyond a reasonable doubt is met by just 6 official homicides!

Witness Deaths
Cause: Expected Official (mortality rate)

Heart attack.. 8.7 25 (0.004913)
Cancer........ 3.5 5 (0.001991)
Other......... 4.6 14 (0.002480)
Accident...... 1.0 24 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 0.23 16 (0.000130)
Homicide...... 0.15 34 (0.000084)
Unknown........0.03 4 (0.000014)

TOTAL..........18 122 (0.010207)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=39
Who’s Who in the JFK assassination by Michael Benson, is a comprehensive encyclopedia of 1400+ JFK related witnesses. JFK Calc includes 97 of the 126 suspicious deaths listed in JFK Calc.

Crossfire by Jim Marrs is a comprehensive study of the assassination that lists 103 “convenient deaths”.

Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a detailed study of 50 mysterious witness deaths (42 homicides, 1 suicide, 7 heart attacks). All are included in the JFK Calc database.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Four investigations
In 1964-78, approximately 1100 witnesses were sought to testify in four JFK-related investigations, 552 testified at the Warren Commission and the rest were sought at the Garrison-Shaw trial, Church Committee and HSCA. Sixty-seven (67) are included in JFK Calc. At least 39 of the 63 were unnatural deaths (including 28 homicides). The others were suspiciously timed heart attacks and illnesses.

Paradigm Shift
The 67 witnesses in JFK Calc who were called to testify in the four investigations were obviously relevant. But their relationship to the assassination is a moot point; motive and connections are not parameters in the probability calculations. These are: a) number of witnesses (N), b) the number who died unnaturally (n), c) the cause of death, d) relevant time period (T), e) the average unnatural mortality rate (R). That is all the information that we need to calculate the probability of n unnatural deaths among a group of N people over a period of T years. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=25

Distribution of unnatural deaths in JFK Calc vs. National Average
JFK-related homicides comprised 34 of 78 (44%) unnatural deaths, far exceeding the 10% National share. This anomaly lowered the unnatural mortality rate from the National average (0.000822) to the JFK-weighted average (0.000247). In any case, 78 JFK-related unnatural deaths among 1400 material witnesses from 1964-1978 is statistically impossible and proves a conspiracy.

FBI officials scheduled to testify at HSCA
Seven (7) died within a 6 month period in 1977: 2 unnaturally (gunshot, fall) and 5 from “heart attacks”. If 8 FBI were called to testify, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 MONTHS is almost equal to the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability (wrongly declared “invalid” by the HSCA statistician) of 18 material witness deaths in 3 years. Using the spreadsheet probability function:

P = Poisson(7,0.01,false)
P= 1 in 114,000 TRILLION (8.7E-18)

If an impossible 100 FBI were called, the probability is 1 in 2.7 BILLION (3.6E-10). Assuming all 7 deaths were HOMICIDES, applying the 1977 HOMICIDE RATE (0.000092), the probability is 1 in 100 MILLION TRILLION (8.6E-21)!

This is a table of probabilities for 1) 7 heart attacks, 2) 5 heart attacks; 2 accidents, 3) 7 homicides for a range of FBI called to testify.

FBI 7 heart, 5/2 mix, 7 homicides
8.. 6.63E-17; 8.72E-18; 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14; 5.23E-15; 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13; 8.79E-14; 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09; 3.61E-10; 8.61E-21

JFK-weighted average unnatural rate
The JFK-weighted rate R is the product sum:
R= 0.000247 =(0.000084*34 + 0.000594*24 + 0.00013*`16 + 0.000014*4)/78

Probability calculations
– National unnatural mortality rate- conservative, does not reflect actual JFK witness data
– JFK-weighted mortality rate – accounts for distribution of JFK witnesses cause of death
– Homicide rate – probability of homicides
Note: the applicable probability is the lower of the JFK-weighted and Homicide rates. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=0

Poisson distribution
Calculates the probability of unlikely events. It requires the actual and expected number. We have the actual number (n) of unnatural deaths. The expected number is N*T*R, where N is number in group, T is time period in years, R is annual unnatural mortality rate.

CONFIRMATION OF LONDON TIMES ACTUARY
The actuary calculated the probability of 18 witness deaths within three years of the assassination as 1 in 100,000 trillion. Thirteen (13) of the 18 deaths were unnatural: 8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides. The calculation is confirmed assuming 454 witnesses: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
Given:
N witnesses: 454
n unnatural deaths: 13
T years: 3
R mortality rate: 0.000209
a = R*N*T=expected deaths = 0.28
The probability of n unnatural deaths: P(n) = a^n * exp (-a) / n! = 9.83E-18

Using the Poisson spreadsheet function:
P = POISSON(13, 0.28, false) = 9.83E-18
P = 1 in 101,774,317,639,149,952

To appreciate the magnitude of the probabilities, consider that there are an estimated 10^23 stars in the universe and 10^20 grains of sand on the earth.

Sensitivity Analysis
Calculates probabilities over a range of n deaths and N group size: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=40

Selected JFK-related convenient deaths of witnesses not called to testify
Robert F. Kennedy-Message to Moscow emissary: “We know it was a high-level domestic political conspiracy”.
Lee Oswald-FBI informant, CIA connected, shot by Jack Ruby; “just a patsy”; no interrogation notes.
J.D. Tippit-Dallas cop. WC said he was shot at 1:16 pm. Roger Craig said he heard news at 1:06.
Mac Wallace-Texas assassin, close to LBJ; suspected shooter; fingerprint found in TSBD.
Dorothy Kilgallen-Columnist, interviewed Ruby; to “break the case wide open”; notes/manuscript disappeared.

Dorothy Hunt-Wife of E. Howard Hunt (CIA/ Watergate) who believed she was murdered in plane crash.
John D. Sullivan-Former FBI, worked under Banister and for Senator Eastland’s committee.
C.D. Jackson-Life Mag Sr VP; bought Zapruder film; Oswald rifle photo; Bilderberg /intel connections.
Tom Howard-Ruby’s lawyer. Tried to sell photo of JFK murder to LIFE.
James Chaney-Dallas motorcycle officer; “struck in the face” with bullet

Ralph Yates-Gave ride to Oswald on Nov.20 (claimed he had curtain rods).
Winston Scott-CIA officer; to discuss book on 4/30/71 with CIA Dir Helms; died April 4; manuscript stolen
Manuel Rodriguez-Pres. of Alpha 66; Military coordinator; anti-Castro group; worked with Guy Banister
Jim Koethe-Reporter in Ruby’s apartment on 11/24/63.
Florence Smith-Friend of Kilgallen, JFK, died ONE day after Kilgallen; copies of DK’s notes disappeared.

Marilyn Walle-Ruby dancer. Working on a book on the assassination.
Bill Hunter-Reporter in Ruby’s apartment on 11/24/63.
Roscoe White-Dallas policeman. In diary claimed he shot JFK with 7.65 Mauser and killed Tippit.
Nancy Tyler-Worked for Bobby Baker. Told him that JFK would replace LBJ.
John Crawford-Close friend of Ruby and Wesley Frazier, who drove Oswald to work on 11/22/63.

William Pitzer-Autopsy radiologist/photographer; planned to expose autopsy.
Mary  Meyer-JFK “special” friend. Called WC a “whitewash”; would reveal all in book; diary taken by CIA.
Jack Zangretti-Mobster predicted: 3 JFK shooters, Ruby to kill Oswald, Sinatra child kidnapped 12/63.
Gary Underhill-CIA agent, claimed Agency was involved; predicted he would be killed.
Hank Killam-Husband of Ruby employee, claimed knowledge of assassination. FBI/CIA documents withheld.

Mary Sherman-Ferrie associate on covert cancer research; killed same day WC came to New Orleans.
Paul Dyer-New Orleans Police Lt.; first to question Ferrie about Oswald. Sudden cancer death in 28 days.
Charles Cabell-CIA deputy director connected to anti-Castro Cubans, brother of Dallas mayor.
Lisa Howard-Journalist/TV news (ABC). Worked on JFK/Castro negotiations; hosted party for Che Guevara
Grant Stockdale-Close friend of JFK, told attorney “people are trying to get me” day before “suicide”.

 
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