JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA
Update: Oct.18, 2013
Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
In 1977, seven top FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period, five from heart attacks, one from an accidental gunshot and one from an accidental fall. This is powerful proof of a conspiracy, since it is focused on a specific group within a short time interval.
The HSCA did not mention any of these deaths in its claim that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid because the witness universe was unknown. Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations from 1964-78: Warren Commission (552), Garrison/Shaw (80), Church Senate Intelligence (150) and HSCA (360). Of the witnesses called, at least 63 died, 39 unnaturally, of which 28 were homicides.
The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm
SEVEN TOP FBI OFFICIALS DUE TO TESTIFY AT HSCA
7706 LOUIS NICHOLS Former #3, responsible for JFK investigation; heart attack
7706 REGIS KENNEDY Confiscated home movies of assassination; heart attack
7708 JAMES CADIGAN Document expert; died from a fall in his home
7708 ALAN BELMONT Liaison to Warren Commission; natural causes
7710 J.M. ENGLISH Head of Forensic Sciences Laboratory; heart attack
7710 DONALD KAYLOR Fingerprint chemist; tied to Oswald “print” on rifle; heart attack
7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN Headed Division 5 (Counter intelligence); Gunshot accident
As shown in a prior analysis, the relevance of witnesses called to testify is obvious, but their individual connections to the assassination is a moot point. The paradigm shift in approaching the problem is the recognition that motive and rationale for the elimination of witnesses is not a factor in the analysis. The mathematical calculation does not include a motive variable; the only relevant factors are 1) HOW MANY were called, 2) HOW MANY died, 3) the CAUSE of death (i.e. mortality rates) and 4) the TIME interval.
In this analysis we do not know how many FBI officials were called, but we do know how many died (7), the cause of death (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) and the time interval (6 months). Since the number of FBI called is unknown, we will assuming four scenarios: 8,20,30,100.
For each of the four scenarios, we calculate probabilities assuming a) 7 heart attacks, b) the official cause of deaths (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents); c) 4 homicides and 3 heart attacks; d) 7 homicides. The official cause of death may not be the actual cause; heart attacks and cancer can be induced. In order to calculate the probability of witness deaths we need the mortality rates for each cause of death.
Some WC defenders have suggested that FBI officials are more prone to heart attacks. Let’s eviscerate that canard right here by executing a sensitivity analysis to determine the overall probabilities assuming 20 FBI were sought to testify and 7 died (5 from heart attacks, 2 from accidents). The probability of this scenario is 1 in 190 trillion.
We run three scenarios of FBI heart attack mortality 1) equal, 2) double and 3) triple the overall population mortality rate. The results are clear. In the worst case scenario (FBI heart attack mortality is triple the population) the probability of the 7 deaths is 1 in 100 billion.
1977 mortality rates
0.004137 Heart Attack
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks
The probability of n deaths among N witnesses over T years, mortality rate R, is
P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)
Assume N=20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA.
Scenario I: 7 heart attacks (reference illustration)
P= 3.95E-14= POISSON(7,.5*20*.004137, false)
Probability: 1 in 25 trillion
Assume an impossible 100 FBI were called to testify.
P= 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.
Official Cause of Death
Scenario II: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
P= 5.23E-15= POISSON(7,.5*20*.003094, false)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion (5.23E-15)
Speculative Scenario III: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides
P= 1.32E-16= POISSON(7,.5*20*.001826, false)
Probability: 1 in 7000 trillion
Speculative Scenario IV: 7 homicides
P= 1.11E-25= POISSON(7,.5*20*.000092, false)
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion
h=heart attack, a=accident, m=murder
FBI.. 7h..... 5h/2a.... 3h/4m..... 7m
08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12 8.61E-21
THREE SCENARIOS: FBI heart attack mortality vs. national rate
Assume 20 FBI officials were called to testify at HSCA. Even if FBI heart attack mortality is triple the national rate, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 months is still infinitesimal: 1 in 100 billion.
1- 0.003094 5.23E-15 1 in 190 trillion (heart attack rate equal to national)
2- 0.006049 5.54E-13 1 in 1.8 trillion (2X national)
3- 0.009004 8.70E-12 1 in 100 billion ( 3X national)