JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials in 6 months in 1977 due to testify at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA)

01 Oct

JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA

Richard Charnin
Oct.1, 2013
Update: Oct.18, 2013

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In 1977, seven top FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period, five from heart attacks, one from an accidental gunshot and one from an accidental fall. This is powerful proof of a conspiracy, since it is focused on a specific group within a short time interval.

The HSCA did not mention any of these deaths in its claim that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid because the witness universe was unknown. Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations from 1964-78: Warren Commission (552), Garrison/Shaw (80), Church Senate Intelligence (150) and HSCA (360). Of the witnesses called, at least 63 died, 39 unnaturally, of which 28 were homicides.

The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths.

7706 LOUIS NICHOLS Former #3, responsible for JFK investigation; heart attack
7706 REGIS KENNEDY  Confiscated home movies of assassination; heart attack
7708 JAMES CADIGAN Document expert; died from a fall in his home
7708 ALAN BELMONT Liaison to Warren Commission; natural causes
7710 J.M. ENGLISH Head of Forensic Sciences Laboratory; heart attack
7710 DONALD KAYLOR Fingerprint chemist; tied to Oswald “print” on rifle; heart attack
7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN Headed Division 5 (Counter intelligence); Gunshot accident

As shown in a prior analysis, the relevance of witnesses called to testify is obvious, but their individual connections to the assassination is a moot point. The paradigm shift in approaching the problem is the recognition that motive and rationale for the elimination of witnesses is not a factor in the analysis. The mathematical calculation does not include a motive variable; the only relevant factors are 1) HOW MANY were called, 2) HOW MANY died, 3) the CAUSE of death (i.e. mortality rates) and 4) the TIME interval.

In this analysis we do not know how many FBI officials were called, but we do know how many died (7), the cause of death (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) and the time interval (6 months). Since the number of FBI called is unknown, we will assume four scenarios: 8,20,30,100.

In each of the four scenarios, we calculate probabilities assuming a) 7 heart attacks, b) the official cause of death (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents); c) 4 homicides and 3 heart attacks; d) 7 homicides. The official cause of death may not be the actual cause; heart attacks and cancer can be induced. In order to calculate the probability of witness deaths we need the mortality rates for each cause of death.

Some WC defenders have suggested that FBI officials are more prone to heart attacks. Let’s eviscerate that canard right here by executing a sensitivity analysis to determine the overall probabilities assuming 20 FBI were sought to testify and 7 died (5 from heart attacks, 2 from accidents).  The probability of this scenario is 1 in 190 trillion.

We run three scenarios of FBI heart attack mortality 1) equal, 2) double and 3) triple the overall population mortality rate.  In the worst case scenario, the probability deaths billion.

Historical mortality rates for various causes of death

1977 Mortality Rates
0.004137 Heart Attack
0.000488 Accident
0.000092 Homicide
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks

Probability P of exactly n deaths among N witnesses in T years,  mortality rate R: P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)

Probability of at least n deaths among N witnesses in T years,  mortality rate R: P = 1- POISSON(n-1, T*N*R, true)

Assume N=20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA.

Scenario I: 7 heart attacks 
P= 3.95E-14= 1- POISSON(6, 0.5*20*.004137, true)
Probability: 1 in 25 trillion

Official Cause of Death
Scenario II: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents

P= 5.23E-15= 1- POISSON(6, .05*20*.003094, true)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion 

Scenario III: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides
P= 1.32E-16= 1- POISSON(6, 0.5*20*.001826, true)
Probability: 1 in 9000 trillion

 Scenario IV: 7 homicides
P= 1.11E-25= POISSON(7, 0.5*20*.000092, false)
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion

Assume  100 FBI were called to testify: P= 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.

h=heart attack, a=accident, m=murder

FBI.. 7h..... 5h/2a.... 3h/4m..... 7m

08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19  1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16  1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15  1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12  8.61E-21

Probability Sensitivity Analysis

THREE SCENARIOS: FBI heart attack mortality vs. national rate
Assume 20 FBI officials were called to testify at HSCA. Even if FBI heart attack mortality is triple the national rate, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 months is still infinitesimal:1 in 100 billion.

...Rate.........Probability (assumption)
1- 0.003094 5.23E-15 1 in 190 trillion (heart attack rate equal to national)
2- 0.006049 5.54E-13 1 in 1.8 trillion (2X national)
3- 0.009004 8.70E-12 1 in 100 billion ( 3X national)

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.


Posted by on October 1, 2013 in JFK


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3 responses to “JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials in 6 months in 1977 due to testify at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA)

  1. Andrew Godfrey

    October 1, 2013 at 7:29 pm

    This is why we don’t have answers about what really happened on Nov. 22, 1963. Dead men tell no tales and that is why they died mysterious deaths. I think someone at the top named LBJ was orchestrating the whole thing and received help from government agencies and organized crime. I am not even sure Lee Harvey Oswald was even on the sixth floor of the schoolbook depository building, when the fatal shots were fired. He only fled the scene because he knew he had been set up and Jack Ruby was ordered to silence Oswald, before he started naming names of those in the conspiracy. Why would LBJ tell his girlfriend the night before the assassination that the Kennedy’s wouldn’t be showing him up again, unless he knew what was going to happen the next day?

    • bobby bartram

      October 11, 2014 at 3:05 pm

      Andrew I agree with you 100 percent.Very well said.


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