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Monthly Archives: December 2013

JFK Witnesses: A closer look at the HSCA list of 21 Deaths

JFK Witnesses: A closer look at the HSCA list of 21 Deaths

Richard Charnin
Dec. 31, 2013
Updated:Oct.2, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
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In the late 1960s, an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated a 1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 material JFK witness deaths in the three years following the assassination (8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides, 3 heart attacks and 2 natural causes).

In 1978, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) statistician claimed that the actuary’s calculation was invalid because the number of witnesses was unknowable. But this was incorrect since 418 witnesses testified at the Warren Commission and 134 gave depositions or affidavits (552 total). In addition, an estimated 500-600 witnesses were sought in three other investigations.

The actuary’s calculation has been confirmed for 459 witnesses and 0.000207 weighted average unnatural mortality rate.

Suspicious Deaths Ignored by the HSCA
The HSCA reported on 21 witness deaths: 15 were unnatural (8 homicides, 5 accidents, 2 suicides), 4 heart attacks, and 2 natural causes. The HSCA group of 21 was similar to the actuary’s 18 material witnesses. Of the 21, 10 were Warren Commission witnesses and 8 were Ruby associates.

But there were at least 25 additional unnatural or suspicious deaths from 1964-66 – and at least 75 more from 1967-78. All were obviously very relevant in calculating the overall probability of a “cleanup” operation – and proof of a conspiracy.

Jacqueline Hess was the HSCA statistician designated to investigate suspicious deaths related to the JFK assassination. Note that the HSCA documented 21 deaths, but not one was in the CIA, FBI, Dallas police, anti-Castro Cubans. Several names cited by Hess in her testimony were conveniently missing from the list of 21: mobsters Sam Giancana, Johnny Roselli and CIA figure George De Morenschildt, a close friend of Oswald. He supposedly committed suicide the day he was to be interviewed by HSCA.

Consider the suspicious deaths ignored by the HSCA in 1964-1966. The most obvious was Lee Harvey Oswald, who was shot by Ruby before he had a chance to retain a lawyer and prove he was “just a patsy”. Jack Ruby died from sudden cancer just 29 days after being injected for a cold and granted a new trial. David Ferrie left a suicide note (an aneurysm from a karate chop?) just days after being released from protective custody and named as a witness in the Garrison/Shaw trial. Ferrie’s anti-Castro associate Eladio del Valle was struck in the head with an ax the same day Ferrie died.

Other JFK-related individuals died mysteriously: Ex-FBI Guy Banister had Oswald hand out pro-Castro flyers in New Orleans. He died from a supposed “heart attack” – but a bullet hole was seen. Cancer researcher Mary Sherman worked with Ferrie and Oswald. She died in a fire, the day the Warren Commission came to New Orleans. Autopsy photographer William Pitzer supposedly shot himself days before his retirement from the Navy. Life Magazine editor Gary Underhill supposedly shot himself after predicting a rogue CIA group was going to kill JFK and him. JFK mistress Mary Pinchot Meyer was murdered; Grant Stockdale fell from an office building. Lisa Howard, an ABC reporter who worked on JFK/Castro negotiations, died from a drug overdose while on vacation. Dallas police officers Paul Dyer and Frank Martin both died from sudden cancers. Rose Cheramie, a former Jack Ruby employee, found thrown from a car traveling to Dallas, predicted from her hospital bed that JFK would be killed in Dallas. She was shot to death.

The HSCA chose to ignore 100 of 120 highly suspicious deaths. In 1977, seven top FBI officials scheduled to testify at HSCA died in a six month period.

Unnatural Death Probabilities (1964-66)
HSCA: 15 of 1400 JFK-related witnesses: 1.47E-12 (1 in 700 billion)
HSCA: 8 of 418 Warren Commission witnesses: 3.20E-08 (1 in 30 million)
ACTUARY: 13 of 459 material witnesses: 9.96E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)

Assume the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”, of which 122 are in the JFK Calc database of unnatural and suspicious deaths. Officially, from 1964-78, there were 78 ruled unnatural deaths: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown. Of the other 44 suspicious “natural” deaths, 25 were heart attacks, 6 were cancers and 13 other causes. Actually, there were 90-100 homicides. But let’s assume the official numbers.

High Crime Locations
Given the National average homicide rate (0.000084) for the 15 year period, the probability of 34 homicides is 1.6E-31 (1 in 6 million trillion trillion). Let’s TRIPLE the national rate to satisfy the WC apologists who claimed the deaths occurred in high crime areas. The probability rises to 7.6E-17 (1 in 13 thousand trillion). I won’t bother to do the calculation for the estimated 90 actual homicides (the probabilities are already ZERO, why rub it in?). https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/jfk-witness-deaths-responding-to-warren-commission-apologists/

Ruby Associates Suspicious Deaths
In 1967, the Dallas population was 700,000. There were 130 murders (a 0.00019 homicide rate). Therefore there were approximately 400 Dallas murders in the period 1964-66. The Dallas homicide rate was triple the national rate (0.000059). At least 15 Ruby associates were murdered in 1964-66. If 7.5% of Dallas residents were murdered, that would extrapolate to 50,000 murders. Assuming 200 Ruby contacts, they were 400 times (0.075/0.00019) more likely to be murdered than the general Dallas population. Assuming 1000 contacts, they were 80 times more likely.

Using the Dallas rate, these are the probabilities of 15 Ruby contact deaths:
4.9E-27 for 200 contacts (1 in 200 trillion trillion);
9.4E-17 for 1000 contacts (1 in 10,000 trillion).

View column E. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

HSCA JFK-related deaths (1964-1966)
W: Testified at Warren Commission; G: Sought by Garrison
Cause: (M)urder, (A)ccident, (S)uicide, (H)eart attack, (U)nknown

Date of Death, Name, W/G, Category, Official Cause of Death
1 6402 Eddie Benavides, W, Brother of WITNESS Domingo, M
2 6602 ALBERT BOGARD, W, WITNESS, S
3 7201 HALE BOGGS, W, WARREN COMMISSION, A
4 6608 LEE BOWERS, W, WITNESS, A
5 6403 BILL CHESHER, LHO RUBY, H
6 6805 Nicholas Chetta, G, FERRIE, H
7 6503 TOM HOWARD, RUBY, H
8 6404 BILL HUNTER, MEDIA RUBY, M
9 6907 Clyde Johnson, G, OSWALD SHAW, M
10 6511 DOROTHY KILGALLEN, MEDIA RUBY, A
11 6403 HANK KILLAM, RUBY, M
12 6409 JIM KOETHE, MEDIA RUBY, M
13 6402 BETTY MACDONALD, RUBY, S
14 6601 KAREN CARLIN (Teresa Norton), W, RUBY, M
15 6601 Earlene Roberts W, WITNESS, H
16 6507 HAROLD RUSSELL W, WITNESS, M
17 6609 MARILYN WALLE, RUBY, M
18 6512 WILLIAM WHALEY, W, WITNESS, A
19 6611 JAMES WORRELL, W, WITNESS, A
20 65XX David Goldstein, W, WITNESS, U (not in JFK Calc)
21 6611 Jimmy Levens, RUBY, U (not in JFK Calc)

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).


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Posted by on December 31, 2013 in JFK

 

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JFK Witness Deaths: Responding to Warren Commission Apologists

JFK Witness Deaths: Responding to Warren Commission Apologists

Richard Charnin
Dec. 28, 2013
Updated: Jan.5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

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Ever since I first posted on the probabilities of JFK-related deaths, Warren Commission (WC) apologists, trolls and various disinformationists have attempted to refute the logic behind the calculation. After all, if it could be proved that the probability of all these deaths was essentially zero, that would mean there was a “cleanup” operation. It would prove a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and a conspiracy by the mainstream media to cover it up.

This is a summary of apologist arguments and my responses.

The basis for WC apologist talking points is a 1967 CIA memo and the 1977-78 House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

These talking points have been promoted for years by John McAdams, the most prolific “Lone nutter”. He has been totally debunked by Michael T. Griffith: http://www.mtgriffith.com/web_documents/vsmcadams.htm

A 1967 memo from CIA headquarters to station chiefs advised:
Such vague accusations as that “more than 10 people have died mysteriously” can always be explained in some rational way: e.g., the individuals concerned have for the most part died of natural causes; the (Warren) Commission staff questioned 418 witnesses – the FBI interviewed far more people, conducting 25,000 interviews and reinterviews – and in such a large group, a certain number of deaths are to be expected.

London Sunday Times and the HSCA
An actuary engaged by the London Sunday times calculated that the odds against 18 material witnesses dying in the three years after the assassination was 100,000 trillion to one.

The Times Legal manager responded to a letter from HSCA:
The Editor has passed me your letter of 25th April. Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times’ editorial staff after the first edition–the one which goes to the United States and which I believe you have–had gone out, and later editions were amended.

There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: It was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied–correctly–that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter–hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize.

None of the editorial staff involved in this story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material.

Yours sincerely,
Antony Whitaker, Legal Manager.

The HSCA Statistician testified and noted 21 deaths had been analyzed: http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm
Even though the London Sunday Times had not structured its actuarial inquiry properly and, therefore, the 100,000 trillion to 1 odds were invalid, the committee staff looked into the possibility of conducting a valid study, contracting with our own actuarial firms here in the District of Columbia: Edward H. Friend & Co., Towers Perrin, Forster & Co., and the Wyatt Co.

One, to compute valid actuarial statistics, one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, the number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

As a result of the above, probability analysis confirming the actuary’s odds has been attacked by WC apologists who also cite books by Vincent Bugliosi and Gerald Posner. The following are talking points used by critics of the JFK witness probability analysis – and my response to them:

– The London Sunday Times actuary’s result was invalid (see Legal Manager and HSCA)
I confirmed the actuary’s odds based on the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate applied to 459 witnesses. The Times did not show the actuary’s calculation, and did not mention that 13 of the 18 deaths were unnatural. No one at the Times remembered the actuary’s name and there was no record of it?

– The universe of witnesses is unknowable, therefore the probabilities cannot be calculated.
That is untrue. We know how many testified at the WC. We also know the approximate number of witnesses sought by New Orleans D.A. Jim Garrison in the Clay Shaw trial, Church Senate Intelligence and the HSCA investigations.

– Bugliosi noted that that the Warren Commission Index has 2479 names and claimed a Metropolitan Life actuary calculated 1 in 1.2 odds.
But how come George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and other non-witnesses are included in the Index? And how come, just like the HSCA, Bugliosi’s actuary did not consider unnatural death mortality rates in the calculation? Even assuming 2479 witnesses, the probability of 78 unnatural deaths from 1964-78 is a very conservative 2.7E-13 (less than 1 in a trillion) assuming the average national unweighted mortality rate (.000818). The correct solution is E-44 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion) assuming the JFK-weighted unnatural rate (0.000253).

– There were 25,000 FBI interviews. Many would have died.
Where is the list? How many were relevant? The book Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination includes 1400+ names. But, again, let’s assume 25,000 for the sake of argument. The probability of 80 homicides in 15 years is less than 1 in a trillion.

– The mortality rates were not age-adjusted.
Natural causes of death (heart attack, cancer, other) were age-adjusted. But 78 of the 120 deaths were ruled unnatural and were obviously not age-adjusted. A bullet does not know the age of it’s target. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

– It is incorrect to assume that the witnesses were connected to the assassination.
It is not an assumption. Sixty-four (64) of the 120 JFK-related individuals JFK Calc either testified or were sought to testify in four investigations. That makes them connected by definition. The other 56 were were not called by design or because they died suspiciously.

– The witness list is self-selected (not random).
Of course, the list of 120 suspicious deaths is selected from an estimated universe of 1400 material witnesses. In a group of 1400 selected at random, just 2 homicides would normally have been expected in 15 years. But there were 77 official unnatural JFK-related deaths (34 homicides, 24 accidents and 16 suicides, 3 unknown). The number of deaths ruled as accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers was far beyond the statistical expectation based on corresponding mortality rates. A reasonable estimate is that there were at least 80 homicides.

– The only reason the witnesses are on the list is because they died.
That is just ridiculous for a number of reasons. As mentioned above, 64 of 120 were called to testify. They are not on the list “because they died”. They are on it because their deaths were unnatural and suspicious. They were part of a much larger group of 1400+ who were connected to the assassination. Eventually, all will die. But only 18 would have been expected to die unnaturally from 1964-78. But there were at least 78 official unnatural deaths. The true number is closer to 100.

– Witness occupations were hazardous.
Is that why 7 top FBI officials died within a six month period in 1977 just before they were due to testify at HSCA? Assuming that 20 FBI were called to testify, the probability of at least 7 deaths (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) in a 6 month period is 1 in 200 trillion!

– The deaths occurred in high crime rate locations. Yes, that is true. FIFTY-ONE of the 120 in the JFK Calc spreadsheet were in Dallas. HOW DO THE LONE NUTTERS EXPLAIN THAT? THEEY WON’T AND THEY CAN’T – BECAUSE THAT STAT TELLS IT ALL.

In 1967, the Dallas population was 700,000. There were 130 murders (a 0.00019 homicide rate). Therefore a reasonable is that there were 400 Dallas murders in the period 1964-66. The Dallas homicide rate was triple the national rate (0.000059). At least 15 Ruby associates (7.5%) out of an estimated 200 contacts were murdered in 1964-66. If 7.5% of Dallas residents were murdered, that would extrapolate to 50,000 murders. Assuming 200 Ruby contacts, they were 400 times (0.075/0.00019) more likely to be murdered than the general Dallas population. Assuming 1000 contacts, they were 80 times more likely.

Using the Dallas rate, these are the probabilities of 15 Ruby contact deaths:
4.9E-27 for 200 contacts (1 in 200 trillion trillion);
9.4E-17 for 1000 contacts (1 in 10,000 trillion). View Ruby contacts in column E. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

Assume the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. Officially 35 were murdered from 1964-78 (actually there were about 80). Given the National average homicide rate (0.000084) for the 15 year period, the probability of 35 homicides is 8E-33. To satisfy the WC apologists who claimed the deaths took place in high crime areas, let’s triple the national rate. The probability rises to 1.1E-17 (1 in 80,000 trillion). But that still will not satisfy the Lone Nutters, so lets double the rate – to six times the National average. The probability goes up to 1 in 500 million.

– The analysis has not been peer-reviewed.
This is not a theoretical exercise. it is based on the official and estimated expected number of witness unnatural and natural deaths and corresponding mortality statistics. We know the actual number of unnatural deaths. We only need to calculate the expected number based on the witness universe, time period and average mortality rates. The actual and expected numbers are input to the Poisson probability spreadsheet function. That’s all there is to it. There is nothing to peer-review. It’s just simple math. In any case, the data and the calculations are available for anyone to look at online. So far, no one has even tried to refute the analysis.

– It has been said that I’m an amateur conspiracy “buff”, not an actuary or statistician.
That ad-hominem will not stand. I have a lifetime of experience as a professional quantitative software developer of computer models for aerospace, defense, Wall Street investment banking, foreign banks and major U.S. consumer goods manufacturers.

– Even if the odds are 1 in a trillion, it’s still possible that the deaths could have occurred by chance and there is no connection to the assassination.
This was a serious response from an individual who was obviously math-phobic. I got a big laugh out of that one.

 
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Posted by on December 28, 2013 in JFK, Rebuttals

 

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JFK-related Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet and Simkin’s JFK Index

JFK-related Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet and Simkin’s JFK Index

Richard Charnin
Dec. 25, 2013
Updated: June 10, 2015

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Warren Commission defenders claim that there is no definable set of relevant JFK-related individuals whose deaths were unnatural and/or suspicious. This assertion has been proven false in previous posts by the fact that a statistically impossible number (67) of witnesses out of approximately 1100 called to testify in four investigations died suspiciously in the 15 years from 1964-78. They are relevant by definition because they were sought to testify. This obvious fact still eludes the corporate media and Warren apologists.

But there is even more proof of witness relevance. Approximately 656 JFK-related important figures, witnesses and possible conspirators are listed in John Simkin’s JFK index in the Spartacus Educational website: http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm

Seventy (70) of the 656 names in the Simkin JFK Index are included among 126 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Officially 44 deaths were ruled unnatural, including 22 homicides. Only 8 unnatural deaths would be expected based on historical mortality rates.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=81

Warren Commission apologist John McAdams made the outrageous claim that Simkin inserted the individuals who died suspiciously in the JFK index because they died. That insane comment shows just how desperate disinformationists react when confronted with facts and analysis which prove the conspiracy.

The probability of 44 unnatural deaths among the 656 from 1964-78 is P= E-41 (one in one trillion trillion trillion).

The probability of 22 homicides given the 0.000084 national homicide rate is P= 6.4E-24 (one in a 150 billion trillion). If we triple the rate (over 50 witnesses were from the Dallas area), the probability is P= 4.3E-14 (one in 23 trillion).

Statistical expectation of the 44 officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancer suspicious deaths indicate that approximately 26 were actually HOMICIDES. Therefore, there were approximately 48 homicides among the 70 suspicious deaths.

The probability of 48 homicides is less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!

Cause of death mortality rates (age-adjusted)

Official and actual causes of death are included in both the JFK Calc spreadsheet and the Simkin JFK Index.

JFK Index Group.Total...Suspicious death
Key figures.....190......10....5.3%
Witnesses........86......19...22.1%
Researchers.....206.......5....2.4%
Conspirators....174......36...20.7%

Total...........656......70...10.7%

Cause of Death Official Actual (est.)
Homicide (M)....22.....48
Accident (A)....11......4
Suicide (S).....11......3
Heart (H).......14......8
Other (O)........8......3
Natural (N)......4......4
Total Causes....70.....70

(R)uled...(T)rue
(I)nvestigator, (W)itness, (C)onspirator, (O)ther
* not in "Who's Who in JFK Assassination"

1 Buddy Walthers M M
2 C.D. Jackson H H
3 Carlos Prio M M
4 Charles Cabell O O
5 Charles Murret O M
6 Charles Nicoletti M M
7 Clay Shaw O O
8 Cliff Carter O M
9 Dave Yaras M M
10 David Ferrie S M
11 David Morales * H M
12 Desmond Fitzgerald H H
13 Earl Cabell N N
14 Eladio Del Valle M M
15 Frank Wisner S S
16 George DeMorenschildt S M
17 Guy Banister H M
18 J.Edgar Hoover H H
19 Jack Ruby O M
20 Jimmy Hoffa M M
21 Johnny Roselli M M
22 Lucien Sarti M M
23 Lyndon Johnson H H
24 Mac Wallace * A M
25 Manuel Artime O M
26 Mary Sherman A M
27 Paul Helliwell* O O
28 Richard Cain M M
29 Roland Masferrer M M
30 Roscoe White A M
31 Sam Giancana M M
32 Thomas E. Davis A M
33 William Harvey H M
34 William Pawley* S S
35 William Sullivan A M
36 Winston Scott * H M
37 Bill Hunter M M
38 Dorothy Kilgallen A M
39 Hale Boggs A A
40 Jim Koethe M M
41 Merriman Smith S S
42 Alan Belmont N N
43 Bill Decker N N
44 Billy Lovelady H M
45 Earlene Roberts H H
46 Eddie Benavides M M
47 Florence Smith O M
48 Gary Underhill S M
49 James Truitt S M
50 Karyn Kupcinet M M
51 Ken O'Donnell N N
52 Lee Bowers A M
53 Lisa Howard * S M
54 Nancy Tyler A A
55 Roger Craig S M
56 Rose Cheramie M M
57 Roy Kellerman H H
58 Tom Howard H M
59 Warren Reynolds M M
60 William Pitzer S M
61 Dorothy Hunt A A
62 Grant Stockdale * S M
63 J.D. Tippit M M
64 John Paisley * M M
65 Lee Harvey Oswald M M
66 Mary Jo Kopechne A A
67 Mary Pinchot Meyer M M
68 Robert F. Kennedy M M
69 Sheffield Edwards H H
70 Thom Karamessines H H

 

 
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Posted by on December 25, 2013 in JFK

 

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JFK Witness Spreadsheet Database: Cause of Death Statistics

JFK Witness Database: Cause of Death Statistics

Richard Charnin
Dec. 19, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Among the 120 witnesses in the JFK Calc spreadsheet/database there were 77 official unnatural deaths, of which 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 3 unknown. The other 43 natural deaths were a combination of heart attacks, sudden cancers and other illnesses. But the official cause of many suspicious unnatural and natural deaths is suspect due to anomalies in timing, circumstance and statistical expectation. Accordingly, JFK Calc has just been updated to a reasonable, conservative estimate of 96 unnatural deaths, of which at least 80 were homicides.

The probabilities of unnatural deaths and homicides were calculated based on average mortality rates for both official and estimated totals. The probabilities for various subset groupings range from one in a trillion (E-12) to E-100.

There are 1400+ JFK-related individuals in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, 95 of whom are included in JFK Calc along with 25 others. The total number of unnatural and suspicious deaths has been categorized for 1964 (year 1), 1964-66 (3 years), and 15 years from (1964-78).

In 1964-78 approximately 214 of the 1400 were expected to die. Of the 214, only 17 unnatural deaths were expected; there were 96. Only 2 homicides were expected; there were at least 80.

Stated another way, there is a virtual ZERO probability of just 10 homicides among 1400 witnesses in a 15 year period. But there were at least 80 homicides. The ZERO probability threshold was reached within a year of the assassination. It is proof beyond any doubt of a conspiracy.

A 1967 memo from CIA headquarters to station chiefs advised:
Such vague accusations as that “more than 10 people have died mysteriously” can always be explained in some rational way: e.g., the individuals concerned have for the most part died of natural causes; the (Warren) Commission staff questioned 418 witnesses – the FBI interviewed far more people, conducting 25,000 interviews and reinterviews – and in such a large group, a certain number of deaths are to be expected.

In 1978, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) report covered just 21 suspicious deaths

Well, it was a lot worse than that.
– Consider the universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses (418 testified in person). Of the 552, 30 died suspiciously, including 18 homicides. Given 552 witnesses, the probability of 10 homicides in 3 years is 2.1E-17 (1 in 40,000 trillion). The probability of 18 homicides in 15 years is an even lower 1.2E-19 (1 in 8 million trillion).

– The memo was written in 1967. Exactly 10 years later, 7 top FBI officials who were due to testify at HSCA died within a SIX month period. Assuming 20 FBI officials were called to testify, the probability is less than ONE in 190 TRILLION given the official causes of death (5 heart attacks and 2 accidents). It is one in 9 TRILLION TRILLION if all 7 officials were murdered.

– Even assuming the highly questionable 25,000 FBI interviews (how many were material?) the probability of 38 homicides in 3 years is E-23 (1 in 10 billion trillion). The probability of 80 homicides in 15 years is E-13 (1 in 2 trillion).

– The London Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination is confirmed assuming 459 witnesses. This is very close to the number who testified at the Warren Commission. But there were at least 45 unnatural deaths in the three years, including 38 homicides, so the true odds are much greater.

– Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations, of whom 63 died suspiciously. Of the 63, 49 deaths were unnatural, including 42 homicides.

– Approximately 500 names are listed in John Simkin’s JFK Index database of important figures, witnesses and possible conspirators. Sixty-five (65) are listed among the 120 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet from 1964-78 (47 of the 65 were HOMICIDES). The probability of 47 homicides is 9E-70. There were officially 23 homicides, but a combination of unnatural mortality expectation and suspicious timings indicates that 24 deaths (7 accidents, 7 suicides and 10 heart attacks and sudden cancers) were most likely homicides. Even assuming 23 official homicides, the probability is 5E-28 (one in 1,000 trillion trillion)!

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).


Expected Deaths (1964-78)
1400 material witnesses
(based on annual mortality rates)
Natural. 196 14.02%
Unnatural 18 1.25%
Total... 214 15.28%

JFK Calc: 120 witness deaths (expected vs. actual)
Cause of Death, (Exp)ected (Off)icial (JFK)Calc (average 1964-78 mortality rate)
Cause..........Exp Off JFK Rate
UNNATURAL
Homicide...... 0.15 34 80 (0.000084)
Accident...... 1.00 24 08 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 0.23 16 05 (0.000130)
Unknown........0.02 03 03 (0.000010)
Total...........1.4 77 96 (0.000818)

NATURAL
Cardiac........ 8.7 22 12 (0.004913)
Cancer......... 3.5 06 05 (0.001991)
Other.......... 4.6 14 07 (0.002480)
Total..........16.8 42 24 (0.009375)
ALL DEATHS.....18.2 120 120 (0.010193)

The following suspicious deaths are classified as homicides in JFK Calc.
* indicates individual is not in Who’s Who in JFK Assassination
Most suspicious deaths in caps.

ACCIDENTS
MAC WALLACE* John Crawford Thomas E. Davis JAMES CADIGAN Hiram Ingram
Joseph C. Ayres WILLIAM SULLIVAN J.A. Milteer ROSCOE WHITE WILLIAM WHALEY
JAMES WORRELL DOROTHY KILGALLEN MAURICE GATLIN Leonard Pullin* LEE BOWERS
John D. Sullivan* MARY SHERMAN

SUICIDES
DAVID FERRIE LISA HOWARD* GRANT STOCKDALE* William H. Cooper WILLIAM PITZER
ROGER CRAIG GARY UNDERHILL GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT BETTY MACDONALD

HEART ATTACK
Ralph Yates* BILL CHESHER Winston Scott* William Harvey DONALD KAYLOR*
J.M. ENGLISH* REGIS KENNEDY GUY BANISTER TOM HOWARD Billy Lovelady

OTHER (SUDDEN CANCER, etc.)
Edward Voebel FLORENCE SMITH CLIFF CARTER FRANK MARTIN Charles Murret
MANUEL ARTIME Paul Dyer* JACK RUBY

 
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Posted by on December 19, 2013 in JFK

 

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