JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

Richard Charnin

June 4, 2014

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It is an interesting exercise to calculate the probabilities of suspicious deaths of 20 Dealey Plaza witnesses. The 20 are among 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database in the 15 year period from 1964-78.

The fact that they were in Dealey Plaza makes them obvious material witnesses – by definition.

Of the 20 suspicious deaths, 8 were officially ruled unnatural (2 homicides, 5 accidents, 1 suicide) and 12 were natural (5 heart attacks, 7 other).

Furthermore, 14 of the 20 witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 4 were sought to testify in the Garrison trial, 2 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

The probabilities of JFK witness deaths for various groups have been previously posted: Warren Commission, London Times actuary,Garrison/ Shaw, Church, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

View the witness list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

The probability of 8 ruled unnatural deaths assuming 300 witnesses is 1 in 1500. But a statistical analysis of the expected number of accidents, suicides and natural deaths indicates that approximately 13 were homicides, so there were 15 total homicides out of 20 suspicious deaths.

Assuming 2X the national homicide rate, let’s calculate the probabilities of 8 and 15 homicides.

For 300 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 175 trillion.

The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 700 thousand.

For 500 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 130 billion.

The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 18 thousand.

View the calculations in column “O”: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=41

The HSCA in 1979 claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination was invalid. The reason: the witness universe was unknown. But the HSCA did not consider Dealey Plaza witnesses or other defined witness groups. The HSCA would have confirmed the actuary if it did a true analysis.

**The actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability is matched given 15 homicides of 385 Dealey Plaza witnesses over 15 years, assuming the average national homicide rate (0.000084).**

**DEALEY PLAZA WITNESSES/ PROBABILITIES
Sensitivity Analysis
(assume 2X National Homicide rate)
**

```
Hom 200..... 300.... 400....500.....600
08 6.8E-08 1.4E-06 1.1E-05 5.3E-05 1.8E-04
09 3.8E-09 1.2E-07 1.2E-06 7.4E-06 3.0E-05
11 8.8E-12 6.0E-10 1.1E-08 1.1E-07 6.2E-07
13 1.4E-14 2.1E-12 6.8E-11 9.6E-10 8.0E-09
15 1.7E-17 5.7E-15 3.3E-13 7.3E-12 8.7E-11
```

Dealey Plaza witnesses:

Inv: sought by (W)arren Commission, (G)arrison trial, (C)hurch hearings, (H)SCA

Date Witness …….Inv Category

7501 Allen Sweatt W POLICE

7901 Billy Lovelady W WITNESS TSBD

6901 Buddy Walthers WG POLICE

6901 Charles Mentesana – WITNESS TSBD

7109 Cliff Carter W LBJ

7801 Clint Lewis WH POLICE

7509 Earl Cabell WG CIA

6606 Frank Martin W POLICE

7502 Jack Beers W MEDIA

7402 J.A. Milteer C MINUTEMEN

6701 Jack Ruby W MAFIA POLICE

7604 James Chaney – POLICE

6611 James Worrell W WITNESS TSBD

7707 Ken O’Donnell WC JFK

6608 Lee Bowers W WITNESS KNOLL

6311 Lee Oswald – RUBY FBI CIA

7101 Mac Wallace – LBJ Shooter?

7706 Regis Kennedy GH FBI LHO

7505 Roger Craig WG POLICE

6512 William Whaley W WITNESS TSBD

**Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78