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2014 WI and FL Governor election fraud: Adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

09 Dec

2014 WI and FL Governor: Exit Poll Party-ID crosstabs adjusted to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 9, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

In prior posts, we analyzed how the 2014 Governor exit polls in Wisconsin and Florida were adjusted to match the recorded vote (by changing how returning voters said they voted in the prior election). In this post, we will focus on voter Party-ID and show how it was adjusted.

Florida maintains voter party registration statistics. There are no such stats in Wisconsin, but we have pre-election polls from 2004-2012 which provide a good estimate of the mix.

In order to match the recorded votes in WI and FL, all exit poll demographic crosstabs must be adjusted. The Party-ID crosstab is an important example since it can be compared to other polls which asked for party affiliation.

We will compare bogus Party-ID percentages in the adjusted exit poll (in order to force a match to the bogus recorded shares) to actual (FL) or poll (WI) Party-ID percentages in order to approximate the True Vote. We use the adjusted exit poll vote shares assuming they are essentially accurate. Therefore, adjustments to the Party-ID mix must be made to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote.

Florida

The pollsters increased registered third-party voters by nearly 8%, reduced Democrats by 8% with no change in the 35% Republican Party_ID. This had the effect of reducing Crists’ share by 4% while increasing Scott’s by 2.5%.

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (adjusted to match the recorded vote)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Other...........33% 46% 44% 8%

Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.9%

PARTY-ID (based on actual 2014 Registration totals)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........38.8% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35.0% 10% 88% 2%
Other...........26.2% 46% 44% 10% (changed to 10% to equal 100%)

Total..........100.0% 50.9% 44.7% 4.4%

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voter-registration/statistics/pdf/2014/GEN2014_CountyParty.pdf

Wisconsin

Democratic Party-ID was 30.6% in 2004 and increased in three of the next four years to 35.6% in 2008. Republican Party-ID decreased from 31.3% in 2004 to 28.6% in 2008.

In the 2014 WI Governor exit poll, the Democratic Party-ID share was 5% higher than the Marist poll, but the Republican ID share increased by 11%. The gains were at the expense of total third-parties: Party-ID declined by a whopping 16%.

Party-ID
............. Dem Rep Other

2004...... 30.6% 31.3% 29.1%
2008...... 35.6% 28.6% 35.8%
2012...... 31.0% 26.0% 43.0% (Marist Poll)

WISCONSIN 2014 Exit Poll
(Party-ID mix adjusted to match the recorded vote)

Party-ID........Pct Burke Walker Other
Democrat........36.0% 93.0% 6.00% 1.0%
Republican......37.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.0%
Other...........27.0% 43.0% 54.0% 3.0%

Total..........100.% 46.6% 52.3% 1.1%
Votes..........5.877 2.755 2.772 0.250
Margin......................... 0.174

TRUE VOTE
(Party-ID mix based on 2012 Marist poll)

PARTY-ID........Pct Burke Walker Other
Democrat........31.0% 93.0% 6.00% 1.0%
Republican......26.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.0%
Other...........43.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0%

Total..........100% 50.9% 47.9% 1.20%
Votes..........5.94 2.92 2.736 0.246
Margin................. 0.181

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS 2014 Exit Poll
(Party-ID mix adjusted to match the recorded vote)

PARTY-ID Pct Quinn Rauner Other
Democrat........43.0% 85.0% 13.0% 2.0%
Republican......30.0% 5.00% 93.0% 2.0%
Other...........26.0% 29.0% 64.0% 7.0%

Total...........99.0% 45.6% 50.1% 3.3%
Votes...........3.626 1.653 1.817 0.118
Margin..........................0.164

TRUE VOTE
PARTY ID........Pct Quinn Rauner Other
Democrat........43.0% 87.0% 11.0% 2.0%
Republican......30.0 5.00% 93.0% 2.0%
Other...........27.0% 44.0% 48.0% 8.0%

Total...........100% 50.4% 45.1% 3.5%
Votes...........3.626 1.825 1.635 0.128
Margin..................0.190

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2009/02/democrats_lure_independents_to_1.php
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/06/trends-in-party-identification-in.html

 

3 responses to “2014 WI and FL Governor election fraud: Adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

  1. Bev

    December 17, 2014 at 9:07 am

    I surely would love to have Richard Charnin research Colorado Senator Mark Udall’s “loss” in the last election. I think the loss was punishment for his insisting that EPA monitors’ recordings of the New Mexico WIPP radiation impact on surrounding states be returned as public information. See: http://www.netc.com/

    Richard Charnin, what do you say?

     
  2. Richard Charnin

    December 20, 2014 at 6:47 pm

    Hi Bev,

    I will take a look at it. Thanks for all of your support.

    RC

     
  3. Bev

    December 22, 2014 at 9:20 am

    Thank you Richard for all your great work on behalf of Democracy and Truth–just what people really need.

    It would be great if Colorado’s real support (I believe) of Udall and his efforts to keep vital, perhaps life saving, information public, would result in action in Colorado that then affected the next general election by getting rid of the electronic voting, scanning and tabulating machines owned and operated by the extreme right wing to reinstate another Bush.

    I like the following:

    Bradblog,
    http://www.bradblog.com/?p=8889
    By Brad Friedman

    Recommended #OWS Demand: Let ALL Citizens 18 and Older Vote, On Paper Ballots, Count Them in Public

    I offer the following simple “demand” for consideration by OWS, as this one likely underscores almost every other. Or, at least, without it, all other demands may ultimately be rendered moot.

    Here it is. One demand that seems simple enough — and is as non-partisan as can (be) — for your consideration:

    Every U.S. citizen 18 years of age or older who wishes to vote, gets to vote. Period. Those votes, on hand-marked paper ballots, will be counted publicly, by hand, on Election Night, at the precinct, in front of all observers and video cameras.

    Please help spread this to the Occupiers if you agree its important. For example, Tweet it (or a link to this article) like mad (with #ows in the text), and/or spread it via Facebook and/or print it out and take it to a General Assembly at an Occupation near you!
    …………..

    And this if the above does not occur:

    Gene Sharp’s site:
    http://www.aeinstein.org/
    http://www.aeinstein.org/english/
    On-line Pdfs of his books including
    From DICTATORSHIP to DEMOCRACY: A Conceptual Framework for Liberation by Gene Sharp which includes an index of nearly 200 Non-violent actions

    …………….

    Sen. Udall is correct to be concerned about New Mexico’s WIPP radiation event. We need him back for the public good.

    WIPP is in addition to the serious danger of Fukushima:

    http://www.hazmatmag.com/columns/three-things-watch-ponder-2014-ends

    Three things to watch and ponder as 2014 ends

    Instead of a long article about what transpired in 2014 and what may be ahead, I’m going to offer readers three items that I feel strongly they should watch (or read) that have made a deep impression on me recently; these are “must watch” items for anyone interested in helping our species avoid peril from environmental degradation.

    The first is a 30-minute video clip on YouTube that I implore you to watch. Make the time when you have a quiet moment, and share the link with family and friends.

    The video assembles different pieces of information about the deteriorating status of things at the destroyed nuclear plant at Fukushima, Japan. I know this sounds depressing but you have an obligation, really, to be aware of conditions there. Note that this is not sensationalized stuff about radiation spreading to the west coast of North America via the oceans. The short documentary focuses instead on the very real and present threat from the hundreds of highly radioactive rods in the destroyed cores of the reactors, as well as things like the storage of contaminated water in hastily-built, rusting containers.

    This is serious stuff: the earthquake and subsequent tsunami that wrecked the plant led to an actual meltdown of the reactors — real China Syndrome stuff — as had been assumed would never likely happen in a modern reactor. The situation is exponentially more dire than Chernobyl, as it’s going to be almost impossible in the wrecked buildings to selectively remove the rods for safe containment without having them contact one another and trigger a fire, the consequences of which would be unimaginable. We’re talking mass extinction around the world, especially in the northern hemisphere. Yet most people have forgotten the situation and think of it only as a local Japanese problem. (It’s only a matter of time before another earthquake or tidal wave triggers such an event, and these rods will remain volatile for centuries.)

    Here’s the link to that video:

    …………….

    The danger of climate change is eventually as great as Fukushima and WIPP. Lessons on activism:

    http://ecowatch.com/2014/09/30/win-climate-change-fight/

    4 Things We Need to Do to Win the Climate Fight
    Harvey Wasserman

    Okay, so we had this historic march a little over a week ago.

    It was …

    … joyous, beautiful, exhilarating, inspiring, life-confirming … and in many ways a turning point.

    Now that the dust has settled a bit, we can see that it will change things for a long time to come.
    snip

    We are our species’ ever-evolving immune system. We are the survival instinct that must defeat the corporate profit motive.

    We are also part of a mighty activist stream that’s campaigned for peace, civil rights, social justice, workers’ rights, women’s rights, gay pride, election protection, No Nukes and so much more.

    But how do we now build on this? What do we do next?

    Politically, we operate at two essential levels: the local and the global.

    And to stay functional, we need: net neutrality, corporate accountability, election protection, social justice and peace.
    snip

    ELECTION PROTECTION demands universal hand-counted paper ballots, an end to Jim Crow vote theft and a ban on the corporate billions that poison what’s left of our democracy.
    snip

    But we all know we have no choice but to win.

    And that as we work our newfound power toward joyful agreement, and a peaceful trust in the will of our species to survive, we cannot fail.
    …………….

    http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/12/12/top-anti-nuclear-authorites-convention/

    Top Anti-Nuclear Authorites to Convene in New York City
    Posted by Sherwood Ross on December 12, 2014

    Growing threat of planet-wide nuclear extinction will bring world’s leading scholars and activists to New York City for two-day symposium Feb. 28-March 1, 2015

    ……………..

    I also support former Rep. Dennis Kucinich whose work ought to be pursued as the only feasible way to fund (with a Debt-free, Interest-free public/government money…not bankers’ Debt loans) the huge engineering efforts needed to even attempt to reduce the present and future terrible damage of Fukushima, WIPP, the 400 additional nuclear power plants and also climate change affecting generations to come.

    http://www.monetary.org/
    http://www.monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/HR-2990.pdf
    http://monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/DesignOpenMacro.pdf

    http://www.monetary.org/how-the-economists-facilitated-the-crisis-and-how-hr-6550-solves-it/2011/06

    Economist Jamie Galbraith in testimony to the Senate Crime subcommittee on May 4th, 2010:

    “I write to you from a disgraced profession. Economic theory, as widely taught since the 1980s, failed miserably to understand the forces behind the financial crisis.”

    With rare exceptions, those in control of the World’s monetary/economic agenda and the theories supporting it have helped bring the world to its knees. Shouldn’t they (and their theories) be held accountable?

    http://www.monetary.org/getting-what-we-need/2014/04

    Getting What We NEED
    By Nick Egnatz

    What do we want?

    Decent lives for ourselves, our families, our friends, our neighbors–for all of us.

    Good jobs that pay a good wage.
    snip
    An end to debt slavery….
    snip

    A clean, sustainable environment–transitioning from energy that pollutes air, water, soil and threatens future human life on earth as we know it to renewable alternatives. With the Fukushima nuclear disaster as an example of the inability to safely contain nuclear energy and waste, we can be assured that nuclear energy and bombs for that matter are anathema to human life and peace of mind.
    snip

    Bringing the voices of peace, anti war, anti nuclear, environmental, Fight for $15, anti foreclosure, labor, debt jubilee, universal basic income, national healthcare, Social Security, Medicare, anti racist, LGBT activists, etc together in one voice, committed to struggle, we can get what we need.

    And what we need is The NEED Act!

    http://www.monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/HR-2990.pdf

    What does The NEED Act do? It is the game changer that makes money available, debt-free, for all of the above goodies or programs that will immensely improve our lives and society. Without it we will continue to roam in the wilderness, never enough money for the things that we want and need.

    The NEED Act

    National Emergency Employment Defense Act, H.R. 2990 in the last Congress, changes who creates and benefits from our money.

    Presently almost all (97%) of what we use for money is created by private banks when they make loans to us. This money is created out of thin air by these huge banking corporations. They simply make two accounting entries and what is used for money is created. You and I must then pay this money back to them, plus interest, with the sweat of our labor. It is why we the 99% are in the process of all becoming debt slaves. The banking class has no intention of changing this paradigm. Change can only come from all of us banding together in struggle for monetary reform via The NEED Act.
    snip

    “The Mistake lies in fearing money and trusting debt.”Henry Simons, University of Chicago economist said from the depths of the Great Depression

    The 3 simple necessary reforms of The NEED Act:

    The Federal Reserve System is dismantled and good parts are placed into the US Treasury. A Monetary Authority within the Department of Treasury is created which avoids an inflationary or deflationary money supply. Most Americans think that the Federal Reserve System is actually a federal agency. the NEED Act accomplishes this.
    Accounting rule changes prohibit the banks from creating debt money. Fractional reserve lending is decisively ended. Future bank lending would consist of banks lending monies that they actually had. This is what the majority of Americans mistakenly think happens now.
    The Congress originates (creates) new U.S. Money and spends it into circulation, for infrastructure, health care and education and does so debt-free.

    A shortened version:
    http://www.monetary.org/american-money-scene-5-august-16-2009/2009/08

    Historical experience has taught us what we need to do:

    1. Put the Federal Reserve System into the U.S. Treasury.

    2. Stop the banking system creating any part of the money supply.

    3. Create new money as needed by spending it on public infrastructure, including human infrastructure, e.g. education and health care.

    These 3 elements must all be done together, and are all in draft legislative form as the proposed American Monetary Act [In September 2011, Congressman Dennis Kucinich introduced the National Emergency Employment Defense (NEED) Act, HR 2990, into Congress.
    …………………..

    And, as if more were motivation were needed for election reform to return to a Democracy:

    http://www.c-span.org/video/?320748-5/washington-journal-architects-engineers-911-truth

    Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth

    Richard Gage talked about his group, Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth, which claimed that the World Trade Center was brought down by explosive demolition on September 11, 2001. The group was founded in 2006 and said its mission was to “expose the official lies and cover-up surrounding the events of September 11, 2001 in a way that inspires the people to overcome denial and understand the truth.”

    http://www.ae911truth.org/

     

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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