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Florida 2014 Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative Precinct Vote Shares

11 Feb

Florida 2014 Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative Precinct Vote Shares

Richard Charnin
Feb.11, 2015
Updated: Aug.8, 2015
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/my-book/

Scott(R) defeated Crist(D) by 64,145 votes out of 5.95 million cast (48.1-47.1%). Third-party candidates had 4.8%.

2014 was a replay of the 2010 election in which Scott defeated Sink(D) by 62,000 votes (49.6- 48.4%). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3,150 respondents): 50.8-45.4-3.8%. The margin of error was 2%.

Previous posts applied cumulative vote share analysis using graphics to confirm 2014 election fraud in Wisconsin and South Dakota. This post will do the same for the Florida governor election.

Cumulative Vote shares
Precinct votes for 12 of 67 Florida counties were downloaded. The 12 counties comprised 58.25% of the total state vote. The analysis indicates that approximately 150,000 Crist votes flipped to Scott in the 12 counties: Brevard Broward Dade Duval Hillsborough Lee Marion Orange Palm Beach Pinellas Polk Volusia

The 12 counties comprised 58.25% of the total state vote. The analysis indicates that approximately 150,000 Crist votes flipped to Scott in the 12 counties.

Crist had 47.07% of 5.95 million total votes. He had 54.39% of 3.47 million votes in the 12 counties and 36.84% of 2.48 million votes in the other 55 counties.

The data was sorted in ascending order from the smallest to the largest precincts. In each of the 12 counties, the trend never reversed: Crist‘s vote share declined in every case.

There was a 4.13% decline in Crist’s vote share from the 25% mark to the final (100%). His shares declined from 25-50%, 50-75% to 75-100% of the vote. The probability of ALL changes in shares of moving in one direction (to Scott) is the same as flipping a coin 36 times and getting all heads! P= 0.5^36 = 1.46E-11 or 1 in 68.7 billion!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=1299990885

A Sensitivity Analysis of displays a range of actual Crist vote shares in 12 counties over the 25,50,75% and final 100% recorded vote. These are combined with his assumed vote shares ranging from 37-47% for the other 55 counties. Crist won 42 of the 44 scenarios.

Assuming Crist had a 44% share in the 55 small counties
-At the 25% mark Crist is a 52.6-42.8% winner given his 58.5% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 50% mark Crist is a 51.5-43.6% winner given his 56.9% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 75% mark Crist is a 50.9-44.3% winner given his 55.8% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 100% mark Crist is a 50.1-45.2% winner given his 54.4% share in the 12 big counties.

Since the CVS analysis is based on recorded votes, not the true vote, they appear to discount Crist’s true shares in the 12 biggest counties at the 25,50,75 and final 100% mark.

IMPLAUSIBLE EXIT POLL
The FL exit poll indicated that 35% of voters were Republicans and just 31% Democratic. This ratio is highly suspect. Note that the Party-ID percentages only sum to 99%. This is significant in an election in which Scott won by 1%.

There are 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans

Total.........Democrats...Republicans..Other
11,931,533...4,628,178 4,172,232 3,131,123
..............38.79%....34.97%....26.24%

The adjusted exit poll gives the GOP a 35-31% Party-ID edge.
Party-ID was adjusted to match the recorded vote.
Crist had 91% of Democrats while Scott had just 88% of Republicans.
Note: The Party-ID total is 99%; Other (third party) shares total 98%)

................Pct.Crist.Scott.Other
Democrat........31.0% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........33.0% 46.0% 44.0 8.0%
Total...........99.0% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.877 2.783 2.800 0.253

Change the Party-ID percentage to the actual registration mix.
Crist is the winner by 368,000 votes.
................Pct..Crist.Scott.Other
Democrat........38.8% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........26.2% 46.0% 44.0% 8.0%
Total...........100.% 50.9% 44.7% 4.0%
Votes...........5.936 3.019 2.651 0.235

Sensitivity Analysis

.........Crist share of 55 counties
....Share .. 47%...46%...45%...44%
...........Total Crist Share
25% 58.52%.. 53.71 53.29 52.88 52.46
50% 56.94%.. 52.79 52.37 51.95 51.54
75% 55.83%.. 52.15 51.73 51.31 50.89
100% 54.39%. 51.31 50.89 50.47 50.05
................ Crist Margin
25% 21.83%.. 12.21% 11.38% 10.54% 9.71%
50% 18.67%.. 10.37% 9.53% 8.70% 7.86%
75% 16.45%.. 9.08% 8.25% 7.41% 6.58%
100% 13.57%. 7.40% 6.57% 5.73% 4.90%

........ Crist cumulative precinct vote shares
County..........Votes... 25% 50% 75% 100% %Chg Vote Chg

Brevard.........207,638 45.6 44.2 44.5 43.8 -1.8 -3,737
Broward.........457,344 71.8 71.0 71.0 69.7 -2.1 -9,604
Dade............509,738 60.9 60.7 60.4 59.8 -1.1 -5,607
Duval...........257,773 56.0 46.5 45.1 43.3 -12.7 -32,737
Hillsborough....350,022 57.4 55.7 54.1 51.5 -5.9 -20,651

Lee.............201,416 45.2 43.1 41.6 39.4 -5.8 -11,682
Marion..........112,571 45.9 44.2 41.9 41.2 -4.7 -5,291
Orange..........292,584 64.6 60.1 58.6 56.2 -8.4 -24,577
Palm Beach......407,070 61.7 62.4 61.9 60.6 -1.1 -4,478
Pinellas........328,201 61.2 58.9 56.7 56.0 -5.2 -17,066

Polk............177,609 48.6 47.4 46.4 44.7 -3.9 -6,927
Volusia.........165,064 51.2 51.8 49.4 48.1 -3.1 -5,117

Total.........3,467,030 58.7 56.8 55.8 54.4 -4.3 -147,475


This result confirms results from Governor True Vote analysis for the 2010 and 2014 elections.

The Law of Large Numbers
Why does a baseball players batting average fluctuate less and less as the number of at bats increase? How come in coin flipping the percentage of heads approaches 50.0% as the number of flips increase? One would expect Crist’s cumulative vote share to INCREASE SLIGHTLY as PRECINCT SIZE INCREASES since the larger urban districts are usually more Democratic than the smaller rural districts. But Crist’s share decreased in all 12 counties – a counter-intuitive result.

Actual precinct voting data shows that the changes in vote shares moving in the direction of Scott are impossible statistically and demographically – indicating fraud. Cumulative vote share analysis (CVS) is a tool for uncovering the most fraudulent counties – such as Duval. The overall county results confirmed the True Vote Model (TVM) and the 2010 unadjusted exit poll.

Dade, Palm Beach and Broward are large, highly Democratic counties. The percentage vote switches from Crist to Scott from the 25,000 vote mark to the final 100% were -1.1%, -3.1%, -2.1%, respectively. Therefore the lines are nearly flat.

2014 was an exact match to 2010
In previous posts, we concluded that Scott stole the 2010 and 2014 elections. In 2010, Scott won the recorded vote by 49.6-48.4% (62,000 votes) or 50.59% of the 2-party vote. Sink, the Democrat, won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (283,000 votes).

In 2014, Scott won the recorded vote by 48.2-47.1%. His 2-party vote share (50.58%) was within 0.01% of his 2010 (50.59%) share! Crist won the True Vote by 52.0-48.0%. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

Florida 2014 Exit Poll
The poll was forced to match forced to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the unavailable actual exit poll results. Exit pollsters ALWAYS assume ZERO election fraud. It is standard operating procedure and has no scientific basis. They are complicit in perpetuating the fraud. The exit pollsters had to force a match to the bogus FL recorded vote in every demographic crosstab. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=678958238

For example, the Party_ID crosstab had to be adjusted to an implausible Dem 31-Rep 35-Ind 33%. A plausible (conservative) 34-33-33% split results in Crist winning by 49.4-45.6%. Note that 91% of Democrats voted for Crist and 88% of Republicans voted for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

View the cumulative precinct votes, shares and corresponding graph for the following counties.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=0

Lee

Palm Beach

Brevard

Orange

Pinellas

Polk

Volusia

Marion

Hillsborough

Dade

Duval

Broward

 

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