April 2, 2015
Beth Clarkson, chief statistician for Wichita State’s National Institute for Aviation Research, filed an open records lawsuit in Sedgwick County District Court as part of her personal quest to find the answer to an unexplained pattern that transcends elections and states. She sued the top Kansas election official Wednesday, seeking paper tapes from electronic voting machines in an effort to explain statistical anomalies favoring Republicans in counts coming from large precincts across the country. http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17139890.html
Thom Hartman interviews Clarkson: http://www.thomhartmann.com/bigpicture/something-very-very-wrong-wvoting-machines-ks
To confirm Clarkson’s results, I downloaded 2014 Kansas Senate precinct data for each county. Cumulative vote shares (CVS) were calculated for the five largest: Sedgwick, Johnson, Saline, Shawnee and Wyandotte and the Total for all counties.
Note the Republican state total cumulative share margin is in steady decline for the first 500,000 votes, but then becomes flat. Since the largest counties show the GOP cumulative share increasing with precinct size, it confirms that they were the counties where the anomalies occurred. In other words, the Independent Orman may have caught the Republican Roberts if the trend was not halted by election fraud (vote switching, disenfranchisement, etc.) in the larger (presumably more Democratic) precincts.
Clarkson’s analysis confirms my previous CVS analysis of the 2014 Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota governor elections, all of which showed the same counter-intuitive, mathematically anomalous trend: cumulative vote shares increased in favor of the Republican candidate in large precincts. One would expect that the cumulative vote shares should move slightly in favor of the Democrats as larger (urban) precinct votes are added to the total.
“Clarkson, a certified quality engineer with a Ph.D. in statistics, said she has analyzed election returns in Kansas and elsewhere over several elections that indicate “a statistically significant” pattern where the percentage of Republican votes increase the larger the size of the precinct. While it is well-recognized that smaller, rural precincts tend to lean Republican, statisticians have been unable to explain the consistent pattern favoring Republicans that trends upward as the number of votes cast in a precinct or other voting unit goes up. In primaries, the favored candidate appears to always be the Republican establishment candidate, above a tea party challenger. And the upward trend for Republicans occurs once a voting unit reaches roughly 500 votes”.
“This is not just an anomaly that occurred in one place,” Clarkson said. “It is a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in elections across the United States.”
Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17139890.html#storylink=cpy
Kansas Senate vote totals: Roberts (R) 460,350 – 53.1%; Batson (L) 37,469 – 4.3%; Orman (I) 368,372- 42.5%. Unfortunately, precinct data was not available for the Governor race: Davis (D) 401,100-46.1%; Brownback (R) 433,196-49.8%; Umbehr (L)- 35,206-4.0%
This post links to CVS blog posts and related spreadsheets:
Kansas CVS graphs: five counties and state total