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## Probability Analysis of Mysterious Deaths: 125 Scientists, 75 Bankers and 77 Holistic Doctors

24 May

Richard Charnin
Updated Nov. 11, 2017

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A probability analysis of mysterious recent deaths:
125 scientists, 75 bankers, 77 Holistic Doctors

Something’s happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear. But over the past two years, there have been a large number of highly suspicious deaths of scientists, bankers and journalists.

This Snopes article uses the same faulty logic that has been used by Warren Commission defenders to explain over 100 suspicious JFK-related deaths.

What the author fails to appreciate is that the probability is a function of UNNATURAL DEATHS, not ALL deaths. The key factors are: 1) the number(N) of individuals in a given category, 2) the number (n) of unnatural deaths among the N individuals, 3) the average mortality rate (R) and 4) the time period (T).

The expected number of deaths: E = N*R*T
The probability is based on the Poisson distribution:  P = Poisson (n,E,false).

Assume a universe of N=100,000 holistic doctors. There were approximately n=77 unnatural deaths (murders, accidents, suicides) in T=2 years. The unnatural death rate R= 0.000174. The probability is 1 in 4 billion.
Only E=35 =N*R*T deaths would be expected. Was this reported in the mainstream media? View the math in this spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=1770582739

The probability assuming…
N= 100,000: P= 2.5E-10 or P= 1 in 4 billion
N= 75,000: P= 3.6E-16 or P= 1 in 2000 trillion
N= 50,000: P= 5.9E-26 or P= 1 in 17 trillion trillion

Bankers and Scientists
A Denver banker supposedly shot himself 8 times in his head and torso with a nail gun. An infectious disease scientist was stabbed 196 times..the list goes on and on.Consider the deaths of 48 high level bankers in the LAST YEAR alone. What are the odds that these rich bankers would kill themselves?

Many deaths are ruled suicides, even though the circumstances suggest otherwise. One slashed his own throat and somehow put the knife under his body afterwards. Another somehow crushed himself with his own SUV. Many of these ‘suicides’ were seemingly committed with a ‘vengeance’.

The analysis is based on mortality rates for homicides, accidents and suicides. Since the number of bankers, scientists and holistic doctors is unknown, a sensitivity analysis of unnatural death probabilities is calculated over a range of estimates(N).

– Assuming 50,000 bank executives world-wide, approximately 22 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 75 unnatural deaths is P= 1 in 600,000 trillion.

– Assuming 100,000 bank executives, approximately 45 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 75 unnatural deaths is P = 1 in 40,000.

– Assuming 150,000 scientists, approximately 67 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 125 unnatural deaths is P = 1 in 4 billion.

1 Comment

Posted by on May 24, 2015 in Uncategorized

### One response to “Probability Analysis of Mysterious Deaths: 125 Scientists, 75 Bankers and 77 Holistic Doctors”

1. May 29, 2015 at 11:18 pm

Apply the same logic to three Maylasian Airlines planes lost..
Flights per day 60 for Malaysian Airlines (wiki)
Worldwide flights per day 57,040 http://flightaware.com/live/
(Round DOWN to 50,000)

IF there were
Odds of ONE Malyasian airliner lost per day is 60 / 50,000 .0012 1 in 833
Odds of THREE airliners lost being Malaysian
1/833 times 1/833 times 1/833 = 1 in 578 million

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.634098
Number of fatal accidents less than TEN a year
http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm
Odds of any one plane having fatal accidents on any given day greater than 1 in 2.5 million

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