Updated Nov. 11, 2017
A probability analysis of mysterious recent deaths:
125 scientists, 75 bankers, 77 Holistic Doctors
Something’s happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear. But over the past two years, there have been a large number of highly suspicious deaths of scientists, bankers and journalists.
This Snopes article uses the same faulty logic that has been used by Warren Commission defenders to explain over 100 suspicious JFK-related deaths.
What the author fails to appreciate is that the probability is a function of UNNATURAL DEATHS, not ALL deaths. The key factors are: 1) the number(N) of individuals in a given category, 2) the number (n) of unnatural deaths among the N individuals, 3) the average mortality rate (R) and 4) the time period (T).
The expected number of deaths: E = N*R*T
The probability is based on the Poisson distribution: P = Poisson (n,E,false).
Assume a universe of N=100,000 holistic doctors. There were approximately n=77 unnatural deaths (murders, accidents, suicides) in T=2 years. The unnatural death rate R= 0.000174. The probability is 1 in 4 billion.
Only E=35 =N*R*T deaths would be expected. Was this reported in the mainstream media? View the math in this spreadsheet:
The probability assuming…
N= 100,000: P= 2.5E-10 or P= 1 in 4 billion
N= 75,000: P= 3.6E-16 or P= 1 in 2000 trillion
N= 50,000: P= 5.9E-26 or P= 1 in 17 trillion trillion
Bankers and Scientists
A Denver banker supposedly shot himself 8 times in his head and torso with a nail gun. An infectious disease scientist was stabbed 196 times..the list goes on and on.Consider the deaths of 48 high level bankers in the LAST YEAR alone. What are the odds that these rich bankers would kill themselves?
Many deaths are ruled suicides, even though the circumstances suggest otherwise. One slashed his own throat and somehow put the knife under his body afterwards. Another somehow crushed himself with his own SUV. Many of these ‘suicides’ were seemingly committed with a ‘vengeance’.
The analysis is based on mortality rates for homicides, accidents and suicides. Since the number of bankers, scientists and holistic doctors is unknown, a sensitivity analysis of unnatural death probabilities is calculated over a range of estimates(N).
– Assuming 50,000 bank executives world-wide, approximately 22 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 75 unnatural deaths is P= 1 in 600,000 trillion.
– Assuming 100,000 bank executives, approximately 45 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 75 unnatural deaths is P = 1 in 40,000.
– Assuming 150,000 scientists, approximately 67 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 125 unnatural deaths is P = 1 in 4 billion.