JFK: Sensitivity Analysis of Unnatural Deaths and Homicides

30 Jun

JFK: Sensitivity Analysis of Unnatural Deaths and Homicides

Richard Charnin
June 30, 2015

The cover of Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy shows a graph displaying probabilities of unnatural witness deaths assuming 1500, 2000 and 2500 witnesses over a range of 0 to 50 unnatural deaths. Of the 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet,78 were ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown).

The x-coordinate of the peak in each curve is the EXPECTED number of unnatural deaths given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

The graph illustrates the power of SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS to display how a target variable (the probability) changes as input variables change in value. In the JFK Calc spreadsheet, the calculation is given by the Poisson function.

THE PROBABILITY CALCULATION
Given:
N= 1500 = JFK-related witnesses (the universe)
n= 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths
T= 15 years (1964-78)
R= 0.000822 = average national unnatural mortality rate (unweighted)

We need to calculate E, the expected number of unnatural deaths:
E= N*R*T = 18.5 = 1500 * 0.000822 * 15
Now we can calculate P, the probability of 78 unnatural deaths:
P= POISSON(78, 18.5, false) = 4.15 E-25 (1 in 1 TRILLION TRILLION)

UNNATURAL DEATHS
The graph shows the probability of
30 unnatural deaths; 1500 witnesses: 0.0034 (1 in 300)
40 unnatural deaths; 2000 witnesses: 0.0011 (1 in 1000)
50 unnatural deaths; 2500 witnesses: 0.0003 (1 in 3000)

The probability of 78 unnatural deaths for
1500 witnesses: 4.15 E-25 (base case: 1 in a trillion trillion)
2000 witnesses: 5.00 E-18 (1 in a 200,000 trillion)
2500 witnesses: 3.92 E-13 (1 in 2 trillion)

Note: The JFK-weighted unnatural rate is 0.000247 (weighted by official cause of death). Using this rate, the probabilities of the unnatural deaths are much lower than the above unweighted probabilities of 1 in trillions. So why bother?

HOMICIDES
In 1964-78, there were at least 34 officially ruled JFK-related homicides. A statistical estimation of the expected cause of death indicates that approximately 50 officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers were likely homicides (at least 80 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths).

Given the average 0.000084 homicide rate for 1964-78, the probability of
34 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 1.4 E-30 (1 in a million trillion trillion)
50 homicides; 2000 witnesses: 3.7 E-46 (1 in a billion trillion trillion trillion)
80 homicides; 3000 witnesses: 6.7 E-75 (1/trillion^6)
80 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 3.7 E-98 (1/trillion^8)

Triple the average homicide rate to 0.000252.
The probability of

34 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 5.4 E-16 (1 in 2,000 trillion)
50 homicides; 2000 witnesses: 1.7 E-24 (1 in a trillion trillion)
80 homicides; 3000 witnesses: 5.0 E-40 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion)
80 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 1.3 E-61 (1/trillion^5)
JFK Calc: Sensitivity Analysis Tables

SIMKIN JFK INDEX
Of the 656 JFK-related individuals, 70 died suspiciously
(44 were ruled unnatural, including 22 homicides).
The probability of…
44 Unnatural deaths: 5.50E-19 (1 in one million trillion)
22 Homicides: 5.89E-24 (1 in 100 billion trillion)
JFK Calc: Simkin JFK Index

WARREN COMMISSION
552 testified, 31 suspicious deaths, 16 ruled unnatural.
Unnatural deaths; probability
16; 1.89E-09 (1 in 500 million)
18; 8.81E-11 (1 in 10 billion)
21; 1.43E-13 (1 in 7 trillion)
Homicides; probability
4; 4.92E-03 (1 in 200)
10; 3.77E-11 (1 in 30 billion)
17; 3.11E-18 (1 in 300,000 trillion)
JFK Calc: Called to Testify

DEALEY PLAZA
20 Suspicious deaths: 13 unnatural, 14 testified at Warren Commission
Witnesses; Probability of Unnatural Death
300; 3.60E-10 (1 in 2.7 billion)
400; 1.06E-08 (1 in 90 million)
500; 1.36E-07 (1 in 7 million)
600; 1.02E-06 (1 in 1 million)
JFK Calc: Dealey Plaza

HSCA – 1977
Suspicious deaths of 7 FBI officials called to testify in a 6 month period in 1977.
Official cause of death: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
Called ; Probability
8 ; 8.72E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)
20 ; 5.22E-15 (1 in 200 trillion)
50 ; 3.07E-12 (1 in 300 billion)
100 ; 3.68E-10 (1 in 1 billion)

LONDON SUNDAY TIMES ACTUARY
Calculated a 1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 material witness deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (actually over 40).
Weighted average unnatural mortality rate: 0.000209
Witnesses; probability of at least 13 unnatural deaths
454; 9.83 E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)
600; 3.36 E-16 (1 in 3,000 trillion)
800; 1.25 E-14 (1 in 80 trillion)
1000; 2.00 E-13 (1 in 5 trillion)
1200; 1.89 E-12 (1 in 500 billion)
1500; 2.85 E-11 (1 in 35 billion)
2000; 8.76 E-10 (1 in 1 billion)
5000; 1.99 E-05 (1 in 50,000)
10000; 7.07 E-03 (1 in 140)

References:
Michael Benson: Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination 1400+ JFK-related individuals (97 suspicious deaths).
John Simkin: Spartacus Educational JFK Index 656 JFK-related individuals (66 suspicious deaths).
Jim Marrs: Crossfire
Richard Belzer and David Wayne: Hit List

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Posted by on June 30, 2015 in Uncategorized

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One response to “JFK: Sensitivity Analysis of Unnatural Deaths and Homicides”

1. February 3, 2016 at 11:01 pm

MAY GOD GUIDES TO THE TRUTH AND BRING THE KILLERS TO JUSTICE!

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