Aug. 24, 2015
2004 Election Fraud: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
1988-2012 Presidential Elections: The Master Spreadsheet
Cumulative Vote Shares: Indicators of Rigged Elections
A Simple 2004-2008-2012 Exit Poll Simulation Model
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference
The 2004 Election “Game” debate
Today is the 10th anniversary of my banning during the “Game” debate on the Democratic Underground (“DU”). The purpose of the debate was to determine if Bush really did steal the election. In those days I posted as TruthIsAll (TIA).
In 2004-2005, DU was the most popular debating site for analyzing the 2004 exit polls. There were scores of heated debates. Viewing the “Game” thread is instructive in understanding the nature of the debates which fueled the election integrity movement.
I expressed frustration with the exit poll naysayers who had a myriad of bogus excuses as to why the exit polls were wrong and claimed that Bush did not steal the 2004 election:
Not ONE mathematical scenario, but many theories and hypotheses based on reluctant Bush voters, the Bush Bandwagon effect, lying Gore voters, forgetful Gore voters, bad weather at the exit polls, exuberant Kerry-biased exit pollsters, inexperienced exit pollsters, exit polls not designed to catch fraud, young exit pollsters, early Democratic voters, late Republican voters, inaccurate exit polls, cluster effect, faulty assumptions, High MoEs, massive Fundamental Christian turnout, Bush the War President, conspiracy fraudsters, sore Kerry losers, rabid spreadsheet-wielding liberal bloggers, Democrats weak on defense, Kerry a lousy campaigner, Repubs united, Democrats divided, Bush strong on moral issues, Bush a religious born-again Christian..
This comment by the brilliant poster anaxarchos sums it all up nicely:
In 2005, unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available. The 12:22am preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll timeline (at 13,047 respondents) showed Kerry leading by 51-48%. But the final adjusted poll (13660 respondents) magically matched Bush’s 51-48% margin. Analysts questioned how vote shares could flip an impossible 3% with just 613 additional respondents. The anomaly was strong evidence that the election was stolen.
Another major red flag was that the adjusted poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 were returning Bush 2000 voters. Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million Bush voters died and another 1 million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47.5 million returning Bush voters.
There had to be at least 5 million phantom Bush voters.
In order to explain away these anomalies, the naysayers offered a number of arguments:
1) Reluctant Bush exit poll responders
2) Gore voter false recall
3) near zero correlation of 2000 to 2004 vote-swing and the 2004 exit poll red-shift.
All of these arguments were subsequently refuted.
In 2006, Mark Lindeman wrote “A TruthIsAll FAQ” in which he responded to questions on my analysis. This was my response: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/07/14/361/
These posts were written in 2012 after the 1988-2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls became available. The data was utilized in the True Vote Model.
2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls vs. the recorded vote
Exit Polls- adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/1395/
True Vote Models- a powerful sensitivity analysis tool
2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Simulation Model
The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the False Recall Myth
Vote Swing vs. Exit Poll Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope means No Election Fraud” Canard
Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs
Media Complicity- covering up the Fraud