1968-2012 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model
Oct. 13, 2015
The 1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model (TVM) calculates the True Vote for every election since 1968. Only two inputs are required: the election year and the calculation method (1-5). These simple inputs produce a wealth of information and insight.
The adjusted National Exit Poll is a mathematical matrix of deceit. It is always forced to match the recorded vote. In the 12 elections since 1968, there have been over 80 million net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Democratic. And of course, the advent of unverifiable voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.
In the 12 elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote 48.7-45.8%.The Democrats won the average True Vote by 49.6-45.0%.
In the six elections since 1992, the Democrats won the recorded vote by 48.8-45.0%. The Democrats won the True Vote by 53.5-40.0%!
The key parameters in calculating the True Vote are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical biological constraint: The number of returning voters must be less than the number who actually voted in the previous election.
The TVM uses several estimates of returning voter turnout (“mix”). The current election vote shares are assumed to be the National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.
TVM calculation methods are straightforward. Method 1 reproduces the adjusted Final National Exit Poll. One very important result is the turnout of previous election voters required to match the official recorded vote. In 1972 (Nixon), 1988 (Bush 1), 1992 (Bush 1), 2004 (Bush 2) and 2008 (Bush 2) returning Republican turnout exceeded 100%. This impossible result indicates massive election fraud.
Methods 2-5 calculate vote shares based on alternative returning voter assumptions from the previous election. Method 2 is based on the recorded vote; Method 3 on total votes cast; Method 4 on the unadjusted exit poll; Method 5 on the True Vote.
The first step is to estimate the number of uncounted votes.The Census Bureau surveys total votes cast in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula:
Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast – Official Recorded Vote
The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires an impossible turnout of returning voters (exceeds the number still living).
An estimated 5% of previous election voters pass on before each election (based on mortality tables). Turnout of previous election voters can be estimated from registered voter turnout. Historically, turnout has ranged from 90-98%, depending on voter interest. Given voter mortality and the estimated turnout of voters from the previous election, we calculate an estimate of returning voters. The number of new voters is simply the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters from the prior.
The primary method used to adjust the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote is by changing the returning voter mix. If that is not enough to match the recorded vote (as it was in 2004), vote shares will also be adjusted.
For example, in 2004 the National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of voters were returning Bush voters and 37% returning Gore. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, the maximum number of returning Bush voters was approximately 47.5 million. Bush’s National Exit poll turnout of 2000 voters was impossible; it implied 5.5 million more Bush 2000 voters than were living. There were 5.5 million PHANTOM Bush voters. Not only that, the Bush shares of new voters, returning Gore and Bush voters were inflated as well. Since an impossible National Exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote, then the recorded vote was also impossible. The election was stolen beyond any doubt.
The built-in 2004 TVM Sensitivity Analysis tables display total Kerry vote shares and margins over a range of a) vote shares of new and returning Bush voters, b) vote shares of new and returning Gore voters and c) turnout of returning Gore vs. Bush voters. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=13
Kerry Vote shares are calculated for 25 scenarios in each of the following:
1) Kerry shares of new voters and returning Bush voters
2) Kerry shares of Gore voters and returning Bush voters
3) Gore and Bush returning voter turnout percentages
Kerry won ALL 75 scenarios easily.
In the worst case scenario, he had 51.96% and won by 6.75 million votes.
In the base (most likely) case, he had 53.56% and won by 10.76 million votes.
In the best case, he had 55.15% and won by 14.78 million votes.
Returning 2000 Voters % of 2004 total votes cast:
Gore 41.79% (PG)
Bush 38.02% (PB)
Other 3.11% (PO)
New 17.08% (PN)
Kerry shares of
Gore 91% (KG)
Bush 10% (KB
Other 64% (KO)
New 57% (KN)
KV = 53.56% = Kerry total True vote share
KV = PG*KG + PB*KB + PN*KN + PO*KO
KV = .4179*.91 + .3802*.10 + .0311*.64 + .1708*.57
Vary KN from 55-59%
Vary KB from 8-12%
Kerry’s vote share is calculated over a range of Gore and Bush returning voter turnout percentages. The following equation is the formula for the base case (the central cell in the matrix).
KV = 53.56% =($L$7*$H$7*H$45+$L$8*$H$8*$E50+$L$9*$H$9*$E50)/$J$12+$L$10*(1-($H$7*H$45+$H$8*$E50+$H$9*$E50)/$J$12)
Vary Gore and Bush from 96-100%
The 2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report
The exit pollsters declared that the 6.5% discrepancy (WPE) was due to differential response of Kerry and Bush voters. The pollsters hypothesized that 56 Kerry voters responded for every 50 Bush voters – the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. They had no rationale for rBr and did not consider fraud as a possible factor. In fact, rBr was contradicted by survey data which showed that response rates were greater in strong Bush precincts than in strong Kerry precincts.
The pollsters claimed that the 7% WPE for voting machine discrepancies did not indicate fraud. This was contradicted by the fact that paper ballots had a 2% WPE discrepancy.
Lever machines located primarily in NY, CT, PA, LA and VA, had a whopping 11% WPE.
It is important to keep in mind that all exit polls (state and national) are forced to match the recorded vote. This procedure implies zero fraud. But the recorded vote never reflects the True Vote due to uncounted, stuffed and switched votes.
The timeline of the 2004 state exit polls show a steady decline in Kerry’s vote share:
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 51% (76,000 votes)
National Unadjusted: 51.7% (13660 respondents)
Best GEO: 51.0% (adjusted geographic weights)
National Exit Poll: 48.3% (final adjustment is a forced match to the recorded vote)