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Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative vote shares, True Vote Models and Exit Polls

14 Dec

Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative vote shares, True Vote Models and Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec. 14, 2015

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

This is an analysis of recent Governor elections in KY, MA, MD, IL, FL, WI using Cumulative Vote Shares, True Vote Models and Exit Polls. The three methods yield similar results.
Example: Florida
Method… Crist(D) Scott(R) Other
Recorded..47.6…. 48.6… 3.8

CVS…….. 50.2…. 46.0… 3.8
True Vote 49.7…. 46.6… 3.8
Exit Poll.. 49.4…. 46.3… 3.3

Cumulative Vote Shares

The CVS method is focused on the largest (TOP) counties. Unlike the smaller counties, vote share anomalies in the biggest counties were clear indicators of fraud.

The True Vote is estimated to be the sum of the 10% cumulative total in the TOP counties + the final vote in the other counties.

……… True 10% CVS……. Final Share
Group..Dem Rep Other…Dem Rep Other
TOP….. 57.3.. 39.6. 3.1 ….. 50.7 46.6 2.7
Other… 40.1.. 56.3. 3.6 ….. 40.1 56.3 3.3
Total… 51.1.. 45.6. 3.3….. 46.9 50.1 3.0

In prior analysis, cumulative vote shares in the six states were calculated from the 25% mark for ALL counties.The average 40.8% Democratic share declined to 38.8% in the Other counties. Click the ‘CVS 25%’ tab.

We compare the cumulative vote shares of the TOP counties at the 10% mark to the final result. The 10% mark is a reasonable estimate of the True Vote as it includes a sufficiently large number of votes in the TOP (largest) counties for the cumulative shares to reach a “steady state”.

We would expect minimal change in the Democratic and Republican cumulative shares after the 10% mark. But the sharp divergence favoring the GOP is counter-intuitive and violates the Law of Large Numbers (LLN).

Florida CVS analysis

Recorded Vote
Group….Crist.. Scott..Wyllie
TOP 10… 53.3… 43.3… 3.4
Other….. 40.2… 55.5… 4.3
Total….. 47.6… 48.6… 3.8

CVS 10% mark 
Group….Crist.. Scott..Wyllie
TOP 10… 58.1… 38.5… 3.4 (CVS at 10%)
Other….. 40.2… 55.5… 4.3 (final recorded share)
Total….. 50.2… 46.0… 3.8

True Vote Model

In the TVM analysis, the recorded and estimated True 2012 presidential vote share is the base for calculating a) the 2014 Governor True Vote and b) a match to the bogus the recorded vote. The sensitivity analysis shows vote shares over a range of assumptions and returning voters.

.……Florida 2014 Recorded Vote match
2012…..Pct….Crist Scott Other
Obama…41.5….85.0. 10.2..4.7
Romney.40.9…..8.0..87.3. 4.7
Other……0.8….47.7. 47.7..4.7
New…….16.8….47.7. 47.7..4.7

Share…..100…47.0 48.3 4.7
Vote…. 5940…2790 2872 279

………… Florida True Vote
2012…..Pct….Crist Scott Other
Obama.. 41.5….. 91… 6….. 3
Romney 40.9….. 8.. 88….. 4
Other….. 0.8…. 49.. 47….. 4
New…… 16.8…. 49.. 46….. 5
Share… 100…. 49.7 46.6 3.8
Vote…. 5940..2952 2766 223

 Exit Poll Party-ID 

Just like all demographics/crosstabs, the published Party-ID demographic mix was adjusted to match the recorded vote in all elections. In  Florida, the 31R-35D-34I Party-ID mix  was forced to conform to the recorded vote: Scott 48.2-Crist 47.1% (66,000 margin).  Historically, the Party-ID mix was 39D-35R-26I.

Assuming a more realistic 34D-33R-33I mix, Crist is the winner by 49.4-46.3% (188,000 votes) with no change to the vote shares.

FLORIDA Exit Poll Party-ID
(forced to match the recorded vote)

PARTY-ID…….Pct Crist Scott Other
Democrat……..31… 91… ..6… 3
Republican……35… 10… 88… 2
Other…………..34.. 46… 46… 8
Share ……… 100.. 47.1 48.2 4.8
Votes ………5940 2795 2861 284

Party-ID (plausible)
PARTY-ID…….Pct Crist Scott Other
Democrat……..34… 91…. 6…. 3
Republican……33… 10… 88… 2
Other………….  33… 46… 46… 8
Share………..100. 49.4 46.3 4.3
Votes……… 5940 2936 2748 257

 
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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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