2014 Michigan Governor: Three election models indicate likely fraud
Jan. 25, 2016
An analysis of three election models indicates that the 2014 Michigan governor election may have been stolen.
Snyder (R ) defeated Schauer (D) by 130,000 votes (51.0-46.8%)
True Vote Model
Given: Obama won Michigan in 2012 by 450,000 recorded votes (54.1-44.6%).
This is conservative; he likely did better.
Base Case Assumptions
1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Schauer had 91% of returning Obama voters
3) Snyder had 91% of Romney voters
4) Schauer and Snyder each had 48% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Base Case True Vote: Schauer won by 223,000 votes: 52.4-45.3%
In order to match the recorded vote, Snyder needed 18.7% of Obama voters
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worse case scenario: Schauer has 87% of returning Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Schauer wins by 52,000 votes with 49.7%.
Best case scenario: Schauer has 95% of Obama and 9% of Romney voters.
Schauer wins by 393,000 votes with 55.1%.
Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Worse case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Schauer wins by 145,000 votes with 51.2%.
Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Schauer wins by 300,000 votes with 53.7%.
Voter Turnout Model
Exit Poll Party-ID: In order to match the recorded vote, Snyder needed 9.6% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans and a whopping 64% of Independents.
Actual Party registration: Democrats 44%- Republicans 37%- Independents 19%
Given: 60.8% of registered voters turned out.
Assumptions: 59% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans turned out.
Schauer wins by 50.4-47.4% (94,000 votes)
Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 278 thousand of 3.416 million votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Schauer had 75% of the uncounted votes.
Schauer won by 368,000 votes (54.3-43.5%)
Jan BenDor writes:
We already knew of this fraud from our analysis of the Detroit Mayoral election in 2009 and the Gubernatorial election in 2010. The ES&S ballot programmers, who serviced all brands of the machines, were all former Michigan Republican officials or their employees. Only three counties had their own in-house ballot programmers sworn to an oath to obey the laws and Constitution. In addition, the state requires no accounting for unused blank ballots left in the custody of the elected local Clerk. This provides a huge opportunity for absentee ballot fraud, and ballot chaining.
In 2004, when counties were ordered to decide on one brand of optical scan machine, in order to spend the state’s HAVA grant, the Republican Clerks went with their favorites, Diebold and ES&S. Sequoia was left out in the cold–it had the best security. I asked the vendor what happened to his bid. The owner of the company, Barry Miller, told me, “I have been a Republican all of my life. But I guess I didn’t give enough money to their candidates.”